960 resultados para Probabilistic Projections
Resumo:
The purpose of this short note is to prove that a stable separable C*-algebra with real rank zero has the so-called corona factorization property, that is, all the full multiplier projections are properly in finite. Enroute to our result, we consider conditions under which a real rank zero C*-algebra admits an injection of the compact operators (a question already considered in [21]).
Resumo:
Estudi elaborat a partir d’una estada al Finnish Cancer Registry a Helsinki, Finlandia entre setembre i novembre del 2006. Davant l’increment dels tumors hepàtics en països industrialitzats, s’avaluen les tendències temporals de la malaltia hepàtica a Catalunya durant el període 1983-2002 i s’estima la tendència futura a partir de l’any 2005. L’estudi s’ha basat en dades del Registre de Mortalitat de Catalunya i de l’Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya. La malaltia hepàtica inclou diverses tipologies de tumors hepàtics i la cirrosi hepàtica. Els models edad-període-cohort s’han emprat per estimar els efectes període de mortalitat i cohort de naixement. Els resultats han mostrat que les taxes de mortalitat per cirrosi han disminuït en ambdós sexes, exceptuant els homes d’entre els 35-50 anys, pels quals la mortalitat es mantingué estable. S’han observat increments en la mortalitat per carcinoma hepatocel•lular i en els tumors de vies biliars intrahepàtiques, mentre que les projeccions mostren estabilitat en la tendència d’aquestes malalties durant el període 2005-2009. Les tendències de la mortalitat per malaltia hepàtica constatades poden ser degudes a la implementació de teràpies noves, nous mètodes de diagnòstic, infecció pel virus de l’hepatitis C d’altres factors desconeguts.
Resumo:
Résumé L'accident vasculaire cérébral sensoriel pur est un des syndromes lacunaires, dû à l'occlusion de petits vaisseaux cérébraux, souvent dans le cadre d'une lésion intéressant le noyau ventro-caudal du thalamus. Il produit un hémisyndrome sensitif pur, et parfois un syndrome douloureux se développe à distance de l'événement aigu. Afin d'étudier la récupération fonctionnelle dans le cortex somatosensoriel (SI) après une telle lésion dans le thalamus, un modèle de lésion excitotoxique a été développé dans le système somatosensoriel de la souris adulte, caractérisé par la présence de formations cytoarchitectoniques dans SI appelées "tonneaux". Chacun de ces tonneaux correspond à la représentation corticale d'une vibrisse du museau. L'activité métabolique a été mesurée dans SI à différents intervalles après la lésion, à l'aide de déoxyglucose marqué radioactivement. Dans les deux premiers jours suivant celle-ci, l'activité métabolique diminue de manière importante dans toutes les couches corticales, avec une atteinte plus marquée dans la couche IV, principale projection des axones thalamo-corticaux. Une récupération de l'activité métabolique se produit ensuite, d'autant plus marquée que le délai après la lésion est grand. Cette récupération s'observe dans toutes les couches coticales, les couches I et Vb récupérant plus rapidement que les couches II, III, IV, Va et VI. Cinq semaines après la lésion, l'absence des vibrisses correspondant à la partie déafférentée de SI diminue l'activité métabolique corticale de 32% et démontre l'activation par la périphérie de cette partie de l'écorce, malgré la perte des axones thalamo-corticaux provenant du noyau ventro-caudal. Des expériences de traçage rétrograde ont montré une augmentation des projections intracorticales sur la partie déafférentée de l'écorce, en particulier de longue distance, ainsi que des projections interhémisphériques, mais n'ont pas permis de mettre en évidence de nouvelle projection thalamique, indiquant une origine corticale à la récupération fonctionnelle observée. Abstract To study the degree and time course of the functional recovery in the somatosensory cortex (SI) after an excitotoxic lesion in the adult mouse thalamus, metabolic activity was determined in SI at various times points post lesion. Immediately after the lesion, metabolic activity in the thalamically deafferented part of SI was at its lowest value but increased progressively at subsequent time points. This was seen in all cortical layers, however, layers I and Vb recover more rapidly than layers II, III, IV, Va and VI. Removal of the mystacial whiskers corresponding to the deafferented area, 5 weeks after cortical recovery, produced a subsequent 32% drop in metabolic activity, demonstrating peripheral sensory activation of this part of the cortex. Tracing experiments revealed that the deafferented cortex did not receive a novel thalamic input, but cortico-cortical and contralateral barrel cortex projections to this area were reinforced. We conclude that the cortical functional recovery after a thalamic lesion is, at least partially, due to modified cortico-cortical and callosal projections to the deafferented cortical area.
Resumo:
Conflict among member states regarding the distribution of net financial burdens has been allowed to contaminate the entire design of the EU budget with very negative consequences in terms of equity, efficiency and transparency. To get around this problem and pave the way for a substantive budget reform, we propose to decouple distributional negotiations from the rest of the budget process by linking member state net balances in a rigid manner to relative prosperity. This would be achieved through the introduction of a system of compensating horizontal transfers that would take to its logical conclusion the Commission's proposal for a generalized compensation mechanism. We discuss the impact of the proposed scheme on member states? incentives and illustrate its financial implications using revenue and expenditure projections for 2013 that are based on the current Financial Perspectives and Own Resources Decision.
Resumo:
With the aid of the cobalt labelling technique, frog spinal cord motor neuron dendrites of the subpial dendritic plexus have been identified in serial electron micrographs. Computer reconstructions of various lengths (2.5-9.8 micron) of dendritic segments showed the contours of these dendrites to be highly irregular, and to present many thorn-like projections 0.4-1.8 micron long. Number, size and distribution of synaptic contacts were also determined. Almost half of the synapses occurred at the origins of the thorns and these synapses had the largest contact areas. Only 8 out of 54 synapses analysed were found on thorns and these were the smallest. For the total length of reconstructed dendrites there was, on average, one synapse per 1.2 micron, while 4.4% of the total dendritic surface was covered with synaptic contacts. The functional significance of these distal dendrites and their capacity to influence the soma membrane potential is discussed.
Resumo:
The upper part of three deep seismic lines running across the Penninic Swiss Alps of Valais have been studied. Numerous reflectors illustrate the nappe structure of this internal part of the orogen. These reflectors, even at great depths (20-25 km), can be correlated with outcropping geological features and are most likely produced by lithological boundaries rather than by mylonites zones, which are hardly reflective in such an environment. Our interpretations, largely constrained by projections of the outcropping geology, have improved our knowledge of the deep structure of this segment of the Alpine belt, enhancing the importance of the backfolding and the crustal scale deformation phase which produced the Rawil-Valpelline depression and the Aar-Toce culmination. Furthermore we have here the possibility of correlating seismic patterns produced by ductile folds with the outcropping structures.
Resumo:
Pleistocene glacial and interglacial periods have moulded the evolutionary history of European cold-adapted organisms. The role of the different mountain massifs has, however, not been accurately investigated in the case of high-altitude insect species. Here, we focus on three closely related species of non-flying leaf beetles of the genus Oreina (Coleoptera, Chrysomelidae), which are often found in sympatry within the mountain ranges of Europe. After showing that the species concept as currently applied does not match barcoding results, we show, based on more than 700 sequences from one nuclear and three mitochondrial genes, the role of biogeography in shaping the phylogenetic hypothesis. Dating the phylogeny using an insect molecular clock, we show that the earliest lineages diverged more than 1 Mya and that the main shift in diversification rate occurred between 0.36 and 0.18 Mya. By using a probabilistic approach on the parsimony-based dispersal/vicariance framework (MP-DIVA) as well as a direct likelihood method of state change optimization, we show that the Alps acted as a cross-roads with multiple events of dispersal to and reinvasion from neighbouring mountains. However, the relative importance of vicariance vs. dispersal events on the process of rapid diversification remains difficult to evaluate because of a bias towards overestimation of vicariance in the DIVA algorithm. Parallels are drawn with recent studies of cold-adapted species, although our study reveals novel patterns in diversity and genetic links between European mountains, and highlights the importance of neglected regions, such as the Jura and the Balkanic range.
Resumo:
The population of Greece is projected to age in the course of the next three decades. This paper combines demographic projections with a multi-period economic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework to assess the macroeconomic impact of these future demographic trends. The simulation strategy adopted in Lisenkova et. al. (2008) is also employed here. The size and age composition of the population in the future depends on current and future values of demographic parameters such as the fertility, mortality rates and the level of annual net migration. We use FIV-FIV software in order to project population changes for 30 years. Total population and working age population changes are introduced to the GAMOS modelling framework calibrated for the Greek economy for the year 2004. Positive net migration is able to cancel the negative impacts of an ageing population that would otherwise occur as a result of the shrinking of the labour force. The policy implication is that a viable, long-lasting migration policy should be implemented, while the importance of policies that could increase fertility should also be considered.
Resumo:
The level of information provided by ink evidence to the criminal and civil justice system is limited. The limitations arise from the weakness of the interpretative framework currently used, as proposed in the ASTM 1422-05 and 1789-04 on ink analysis. It is proposed to use the likelihood ratio from the Bayes theorem to interpret ink evidence. Unfortunately, when considering the analytical practices, as defined in the ASTM standards on ink analysis, it appears that current ink analytical practices do not allow for the level of reproducibility and accuracy required by a probabilistic framework. Such framework relies on the evaluation of the statistics of the ink characteristics using an ink reference database and the objective measurement of similarities between ink samples. A complete research programme was designed to (a) develop a standard methodology for analysing ink samples in a more reproducible way, (b) comparing automatically and objectively ink samples and (c) evaluate the proposed methodology in a forensic context. This report focuses on the first of the three stages. A calibration process, based on a standard dye ladder, is proposed to improve the reproducibility of ink analysis by HPTLC, when these inks are analysed at different times and/or by different examiners. The impact of this process on the variability between the repetitive analyses of ink samples in various conditions is studied. The results show significant improvements in the reproducibility of ink analysis compared to traditional calibration methods.
Resumo:
This paper attempts to estimate the impact of population ageing on house prices. There is considerable debate about whether population ageing puts downwards or upwards pressure on house prices. The empirical approach differs from earlier studies of this relationship, which are mainly regression analyses of macro time-series data. A micro-simulation methodology is adopted that combines a macro-level house price model with a micro-level household formation model. The case study is Scotland, a country that is expected to age rapidly in the future. The parameters of the household formation model are estimated with panel data from the British Household Panel Survey covering the period 1999-2008. The estimates are then used to carry out a set of simulations. The simulations are based on a set of population projections that represent a considerable range in the rate of population ageing. The main finding from the simulations is that population ageing—or more generally changes in age structure—is not likely a main determinant of house prices, at least in Scotland.
Resumo:
Much attention has been paid to the effects of climate change on species' range reductions and extinctions. There is however surprisingly little information on how climate change driven threat may impact the tree of life and result in loss of phylogenetic diversity (PD). Some plant families and mammalian orders reveal nonrandom extinction patterns, but many other plant families do not. Do these discrepancies reflect different speciation histories and does climate induced extinction result in the same discrepancies among different groups? Answers to these questions require representative taxon sampling. Here, we combine phylogenetic analyses, species distribution modeling, and climate change projections on two of the largest plant families in the Cape Floristic Region (Proteaceae and Restionaceae), as well as the second most diverse mammalian order in Southern Africa (Chiroptera), and an herbivorous insect genus (Platypleura) in the family Cicadidae to answer this question. We model current and future species distributions to assess species threat levels over the next 70years, and then compare projected with random PD survival. Results for these animal and plant clades reveal congruence. PD losses are not significantly higher under predicted extinction than under random extinction simulations. So far the evidence suggests that focusing resources on climate threatened species alone may not result in disproportionate benefits for the preservation of evolutionary history.
Resumo:
There is a widespread consensus in the literature that, as consequence of the demographic transition, the current Spanish pension system will become unsustainable in the next decades. In this article we evaluate the sustainability of the contributory pensions' sub-system, taking into account the demographic projections by the Spanish Statistical Office (INE). A baseline scenario is projected as well as several reforms are simulated, focusing on: (i) selective immigration policy, (ii) changes in the way of setting the pensions and (iii) increase of the legal age of retirement up to 68. The main results are the following. The current system would not incur deficits until 2018, from then deficits will begin to be accumulated. The expenditure in pensions practically would double (from 8.3 % in 2005 to 17.2 % in 2050). A selective immigration policy -towards foreign young people- would help, but does not solve the long-term sustainability of the current system. A policy that combines a pensions' growth at a pace lower than productivity growth and extends the legal age of retirement up to 68 would give solvency to the system beyond 2029
Resumo:
Pterigodermatites (P.) spinicaudatis sp.n. from Dromiciops australis is proposed and described. The simple morphology of the ovijector and the presence of a well developed spine between the two cuticular projections at the caudal extremity of the female distinguish the studied nematode from the remainder species of the genus parasitizing South American Edentata, marsupials and cricetid rodents. The distribution area of the hosts of the different species of P. (P.) are given. The studied genus does not parasitize any Australian marsupials. It was found in the endemic South American Microbiotheriidae. This fact suggests from a parasitological point of view that D. australis is not related to the Australian marsupials but to the South American ones.
Resumo:
Debris flow susceptibility mapping at a regional scale has been the subject of various studies. The complexity of the phenomenon and the variability of local controlling factors limit the use of process-based models for a first assessment. GISbased approaches associating an automatic detection of the source areas and a simple assessment of the debris flow spreading may provide a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at the regional scale. The use of a digital elevation model, with a 10 m resolution, for the Canton de Vaud territory (Switzerland), a lithological map and a land use map, has allowed automatic identification of the potential source areas. The spreading estimates are based on basic probabilistic and energy calculations that allow to define the maximal runout distance of a debris flow.
Resumo:
Cerebral complications are important, but poorly understood pathological features of infections caused by some species of Plasmodium and Babesia. Patients dying from P. falciparum were classified as cerebral or non-cerebral cases according to the cerebral malaria coma scale. Light microscopy revealed that cerebral microvessels of cerebral malaria patients were field with a mixture of parazited and unparazited erythrocytes, with 94% of the vessels showing parasitized red blood cell (PRBC) sequestration. Some degree of PRBC sequestration was also found in non-cerebral malaria patients, but the percentage of microvessls with sequestered PRBC was only 13% Electron microscopy demonstrated knobs on the membrane of PRBC that formed focal junctions with the capillary endothelium. A number of host cell molecules such as CD36, thrombospondim (TSP) and intracellular adhesion molecule I (ICAM-1) may function as endothelial cell surfacereports for P. falciparum-infected erythrocytes. Affinity labeling of CD36 and TSP to the PRBC surface showed these molecules specifically bind to the knobs. Babesia bovis infected erythrocytes procedure projections of the erythrocyte membrane that are similar to knobs. When brain tissue from B. bovis-infected cattle was examined, cerebral capillaries were packed with PRBC. Infected erythrocytes formed focal attachments with cerebral endothelial cells at the site of these knob-like projections. These findings indicate that cerebral pathology caused by B. bovis is similar to human cerebral malaria. A search for cytoadherence proteins in the endothelial cells may lead to a better understanding of the pathogenisis of cerebral babesiosis.