Power Law Behavior and Self-similarity in Modern Industrial Accidents

Advances in technology have produced more and more intricate industrial systems, such as nuclear power plants, chemical centers and petroleum platforms. Such complex plants exhibit multiple interactions among smaller units and human operators, rising potentially disastrous failure, which can propagate across subsystem boundaries. This paper analyzes industrial accident data-series in the perspective of statistical physics and dynamical systems. Global data is collected from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) during the time period from year 1903 up to 2012. The statistical distributions of the number of fatalities caused by industrial accidents reveal Power Law (PL) behavior. We analyze the evolution of the PL parameters over time and observe a remarkable increment in the PL exponent during the last years. PL behavior allows prediction by extrapolation over a wide range of scales. In a complementary line of thought, we compare the data using appropriate indices and use different visualization techniques to correlate and to extract relationships among industrial accident events. This study contributes to better understand the complexity of modern industrial accidents and their ruling principles.

Dynamical Analysis and Visualization of Tornadoes Time Series

In this paper we analyze the behavior of tornado time-series in the U.S. from the perspective of dynamical systems. A tornado is a violently rotating column of air extending from a cumulonimbus cloud down to the ground. Such phenomena reveal features that are well described by power law functions and unveil characteristics found in systems with long range memory effects. Tornado time series are viewed as the output of a complex system and are interpreted as a manifestation of its dynamics. Tornadoes are modeled as sequences of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the events size. First, a collection of time series involving 64 years is analyzed in the frequency domain by means of the Fourier transform. The amplitude spectra are approximated by power law functions and their parameters are read as an underlying signature of the system dynamics. Second, it is adopted the concept of circular time and the collective behavior of tornadoes analyzed. Clustering techniques are then adopted to identify and visualize the emerging patterns.

Casualties distribution in human and natural hazards

Catastrophic events, such as wars and terrorist attacks, big tornadoes and hurricanes, huge earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, and landslides, are always accompanied by a large number of casualties. The size distribution of these casualties have separately been shown to follow approximate power law (PL) distributions. In this paper, we analyze the number of victims of catastrophic phenomena, in particular, terrorism, and find double PL behavior. This means that the data set is better approximated by two PLs instead of one. We have plotted the two PL parameters corresponding to all terrorist events occurred in every year, from 1980 to 2010. We observe an interesting pattern in the chart, where the lines, that connect each pair of points defining the double PLs, are roughly aligned to each other.

Coalition of distributed generation units to Virtual Power Players - a game theory approach

Smart Grids (SGs) have emerged as the new paradigm for power system operation and management, being designed to include large amounts of distributed energy resources. This new paradigm requires new Energy Resource Management (ERM) methodologies considering different operation strategies and the existence of new management players such as several types of aggregators. This paper proposes a methodology to facilitate the coalition between distributed generation units originating Virtual Power Players (VPP) considering a game theory approach. The proposed approach consists in the analysis of the classifications that were attributed by each VPP to the distributed generation units, as well as in the analysis of the previous established contracts by each player. The proposed classification model is based in fourteen parameters including technical, economical and behavioural ones. Depending of the VPP strategies, size and goals, each parameter has different importance. VPP can also manage other type of energy resources, like storage units, electric vehicles, demand response programs or even parts of the MV and LV distribution network. A case study with twelve VPPs with different characteristics and one hundred and fifty real distributed generation units is included in the paper.

Fate Hazardous elements in soils surrounding a coal-fired power plant complex

Proceedings of the 13th International UFZ-Deltares Conference on Sustainable Use and Management of Soil, Sediment and Water Resources - 9–12 June 2015 • Copenhagen, Denmark

Uso Sustentável de Vapor

Em 2006, a IEA (Agência Internacional de Energia), publicou alguns estudos de consumos mundiais de energia. Naquela altura, apontava na fabricação de produtos, um consumo mundial de energia elétrica, de origem fóssil de cerca 86,16 EJ/ano (86,16×018 J) e um consumo de energia nos sistemas de vapor de 32,75 EJ/ano. Evidenciou também nesses estudos que o potencial de poupança de energia nos sistemas de vapor era de 3,27 EJ/ano. Ou seja, quase tanto como a energia consumida nos sistemas de vapor da U.E. Não se encontraram números relativamente a Portugal, mas comparativamente com outros Países publicitados com alguma similaridade, o consumo de energia em vapor rondará 0,2 EJ/ano e por conseguinte um potencial de poupança de cerca 0,02 EJ/ano, ou 5,6 × 106 MWh/ano ou uma potência de 646 MW, mais do que a potência de cinco barragens Crestuma/Lever! Trata-se efetivamente de muita energia; interessa por isso perceber o onde e o porquê deste desperdício. De um modo muito modesto, pretende-se com este trabalho dar algum contributo neste sentido. Procurou-se evidenciar as possibilidades reais de os utilizadores de vapor de água na indústria reduzirem os consumos de energia associados à sua produção. Não estão em causa as diferentes formas de energia para a geração de vapor, sejam de origem fóssil ou renovável; interessou neste trabalho estudar o modo de como é manuseado o vapor na sua função de transporte de energia térmica, e de como este poderá ser melhorado na sua eficiência de cedência de calor, idealmente com menor consumo de energia. Com efeito, de que servirá se se optou por substituir o tipo de queima para uma mais sustentável se a jusante se continuarem a verificarem desperdícios, descarga exagerada nas purgas das caldeiras com perda de calor associada, emissões permanentes de vapor para a atmosfera em tanques de condensado, perdas por válvulas nos vedantes, purgadores avariados abertos, pressão de vapor exageradamente alta atendendo às temperaturas necessárias, “layouts” do sistema de distribuição mal desenhados, inexistência de registos de produção e consumos de vapor, etc. A base de organização deste estudo foi o ciclo de vapor: produção, distribuição, consumo e recuperação de condensado. Pareceu importante incluir também o tratamento de água, atendendo às implicações na transferência de calor das superfícies com incrustações. Na produção de vapor, verifica-se que os maiores problemas de perda de energia têm a ver com a falta de controlo, no excesso de ar e purgas das caldeiras em exagero. Na distribuição de vapor aborda-se o dimensionamento das tubagens, necessidade de purgas a v montante das válvulas de controlo, a redução de pressão com válvulas redutoras tradicionais; será de destacar a experiência americana no uso de micro turbinas para a redução de pressão com produção simultânea de eletricidade. Em Portugal não se conhecem instalações com esta opção. Fabricantes da República Checa e Áustria, têm tido sucesso em algumas dezenas de instalações de redução de pressão em diversos países europeus (UK, Alemanha, R. Checa, França, etc.). Para determinação de consumos de vapor, para projeto ou mesmo para estimativa em máquinas existentes, disponibiliza-se uma série de equações para os casos mais comuns. Dá-se especial relevo ao problema que se verifica numa grande percentagem de permutadores de calor, que é a estagnação de condensado - “stalled conditions”. Tenta-se também evidenciar as vantagens da recuperação de vapor de flash (infelizmente de pouca tradição em Portugal), e a aplicação de termocompressores. Finalmente aborda-se o benchmarking e monitorização, quer dos custos de vapor quer dos consumos específicos dos produtos. Esta abordagem é algo ligeira, por manifesta falta de estudos publicados. Como trabalhos práticos, foram efetuados levantamentos a instalações de vapor em diversos sectores de atividades; 1. ISEP - Laboratório de Química. Porto, 2. Prio Energy - Fábrica de Biocombustíveis. Porto de Aveiro. 3. Inapal Plásticos. Componentes de Automóvel. Leça do Balio, 4. Malhas Sonix. Tinturaria Têxtil. Barcelos, 5. Uma instalação de cartão canelado e uma instalação de alimentos derivados de soja. Também se inclui um estudo comparativo de custos de vapor usado nos hospitais: quando produzido por geradores de vapor com queima de combustível e quando é produzido por pequenos geradores elétricos. Os resultados estão resumidos em tabelas e conclui-se que se o potencial de poupança se aproxima do referido no início deste trabalho.

Gestão de Recursos Energéticos para Apoio à Operação dos Virtual Power Players

A liberalização dos mercados de energia elétrica e a crescente integração dos recursos energéticos distribuídos nas redes de distribuição, nomeadamente as unidades de produção distribuída, os sistemas de controlo de cargas através dos programas de demand response, os sistemas de armazenamento e os veículos elétricos, representaram uma evolução no paradigma de operação e gestão dos sistemas elétricos. Este novo paradigma de operação impõe o desenvolvimento de novas metodologias de gestão e controlo que permitam a integração de todas as novas tecnologias de forma eficiente e sustentável. O principal contributo deste trabalho reside no desenvolvimento de metodologias para a gestão de recursos energéticos no contexto de redes inteligentes, que contemplam três horizontes temporais distintos (24 horas, 1 hora e 5 minutos). As metodologias consideram os escalonamentos anteriores assim como as previsões atualizadas de forma a melhorar o desempenho total do sistema e consequentemente aumentar a rentabilidade dos agentes agregadores. As metodologias propostas foram integradas numa ferramenta de simulação, que servirá de apoio à decisão de uma entidade agregadora designada por virtual power player. Ao nível das metodologias desenvolvidas são propostos três algoritmos de gestão distintos, nomeadamente para a segunda (1 hora) e terceira fase (5 minutos) da ferramenta de gestão, diferenciados pela influência que os períodos antecedentes e seguintes têm no período em escalonamento. Outro aspeto relevante apresentado neste documento é o teste e a validação dos modelos propostos numa plataforma de simulação comercial. Para além das metodologias propostas, a aplicação permitiu validar os modelos dos equipamentos considerados, nomeadamente, ao nível das redes de distribuição e dos recursos energéticos distribuidos. Nesta dissertação são apresentados três casos de estudos, cada um com diferentes cenários referentes a cenários de operação futuros. Estes casos de estudos são importantes para verificar a viabilidade da implementação das metodologias e algoritmos propostos. Adicionalmente são apresentadas comparações das metodologias propostas relativamente aos resultados obtidos, complexidade de gestão em ambiente de simulação para as diferentes fases da ferramenta proposta e os benefícios e inconvenientes no uso da ferramenta proposta.

Species distribution models reveal apparent competitive and facilitative effects of a dominant species on the distribution of tundra plants

Abiotic factors are considered strong drivers of species distribution and assemblages. Yet these spatial patterns are also influenced by biotic interactions. Accounting for competitors or facilitators may improve both the fit and the predictive power of species distribution models (SDMs). We investigated the influence of a dominant species, Empetrum nigrum ssp. hermaphroditum, on the distribution of 34 subordinate species in the tundra of northern Norway. We related SDM parameters of those subordinate species to their functional traits and their co-occurrence patterns with E. hermaphroditum across three spatial scales. By combining both approaches, we sought to understand whether these species may be limited by competitive interactions and/or benefit from habitat conditions created by the dominant species. The model fit and predictive power increased for most species when the frequency of occurrence of E. hermaphroditum was included in the SDMs as a predictor. The largest increase was found for species that 1) co-occur most of the time with E. hermaphroditum, both at large (i.e. 750 m) and small spatial scale (i.e. 2 m) or co-occur with E. hermaphroditum at large scale but not at small scale and 2) have particularly low or high leaf dry matter content (LDMC). Species that do not co-occur with E. hermaphroditum at the smallest scale are generally palatable herbaceous species with low LDMC, thus showing a weak ability to tolerate resource depletion that is directly or indirectly induced by E. hermaphroditum. Species with high LDMC, showing a better aptitude to face resource depletion and grazing, are often found in the proximity of E. hermaphroditum. Our results are consistent with previous findings that both competition and facilitation structure plant distribution and assemblages in the Arctic tundra. The functional and co-occurrence approaches used were complementary and provided a deeper understanding of the observed patterns by refinement of the pool of potential direct and indirect ecological effects of E. hermaphroditum on the distribution of subordinate species. Our correlative study would benefit being complemented by experimental approaches.

Software product line for power converters

Työn tilaajana toimi Visedo Oy. Työn tavoitteina oli tutkia Visedo Oy:n ohjelmistokehityksen nykytila, tunnistaa seuraavat parannuskohteet ja antaa ohjeita havaittujen parannuskohteiden korjaamiseksi. Visedo Oy:n tehonmuokkain ohjelmistokehityksen nykytilaa käsiteltiin neljän valitun osa-alueen näkökulmasta: ohjelmistoarkkitehtuurityyli, komponenttipohjainen ohjelmistokehitys, ohjelmistotuotelinjojen kehitysmenetelmät ja ohjelmistovariaatioiden hallinta. Valituilla osa-alueilla havaittujen parannuskohteiden perusteella annettiin korjausehdotuksia: ohjelmistoarkkitehtuurin rakenteeseen, komponenttien jakautumiselle, komponenttien koostamiselle ja komponenttien versioinnille. Lisäksi ehdotettiin uudenlaista ohjelmistotuotelinja rakennetta, joka yhdistää kerros- ja komponenttipohjaiset arkkitehtuurityylit mahdollistaen ominaisuuksiltaan eroavien tehonmuokkain ohjelmistojen hallinnan.

Investigation of the applicability of LVDC microgrids in utility distribution in Russia

The research towards efficient, reliable and environmental-friendly power supply solutions is producing growing interest to the “Smart Grid” approach for the development of the electricity networks and managing the increasing energy consumption. One of the novel approaches is an LVDC microgrid. The purpose of the research is to analyze the possibilities for the implementation of LVDC microgrids in public distribution networks in Russia. The research contains the analysis of the modern Russian electric power industry, electricity market, electricity distribution business, regulatory framework and standardization, related to the implementation of LVDC microgrid concept. For the purpose of the economic feasibility estimation, a theoretical case study for comparing low voltage AC and medium voltage AC with LVDC microgrid solutions for a small settlement in Russia is presented. The results of the market and regulatory framework analysis along with the economic comparison of AC and DC solutions show that implementation of the LVDC microgrid concept in Russia is possible and can be economically feasible. From the electric power industry and regulatory framework point of view, there are no serious obstacles for the LVDC microgrids in Russian distribution networks. However, the most suitable use cases at the moment are expected to be found in the electrification of remote settlements, which are isolated from the Unified Energy System of Russia.

Charting developmental EEG gamma changes in the auditory modality /

The oscillation of neuronal circuits reflected in the EEG gamma frequency may be fundamental to the perceptual process referred to as binding (the integration of various thoughts and perceptions into a coherent picture). The aim of our study was to expand our knowledge of the developmental course ofEEG gamma in the auditory modality. 2 We investigated EEG 40 Hz gamma band responses (35.2 to 43.0 Hz) using an auditory novelty oddball paradigm alone and with a visual-number-series distracter task in 208 participants as a function of age (7 years to adult) at 9 sites across the sagital and lateral axes (F3, Fz, F4, C3, Cz, C4, P3, Pz, P4). Gamma responses were operationally defined as change in power or a change in phase synchrony level from baseline within two time windows. The evoked gamma response was defined as a significant change from baseline occurring between 0 to 150 ms after stimulus onset; the induced gamma response was measured from 250 to 750 ms after stimulus onset. A significant evoked gamma band response was found when measuring changes in both power and phase synchrony. The increase in both measures was maximal at frontal regions. Decreases in both measures were found when participants were distracted by a secondary task. For neither measure were developmental effects noted. However, evoked gamma power was significantly enhanced with the presentation of a novel stimulus, especially at the right frontal site (F4); frontal evoked gamma phase synchrony also showed enhancement for novel stimuli but only for our two oldest age groups (16-18 year olds and adults). Induced gamma band responses also varied with task-dependent cognitive stimulus properties. In the induced gamma power response in all age groups, target stimuli generated the highest power values at the parietal region, while the novel stimuli were always below baseline. Target stimuli increased induced synchrony in all regions for all participants, but the novel stimulus selectively affected participants dependent on their age and gender. Adult participants, for example, exhibited a reduction in gamma power, but an increase in synchrony to the novel stimulus within the same region. Induced gamma synchrony was more sensitive to the gender of the participant than was induced gamma power. While induced gamma power produced little effects of age, gamma synchrony did have age effects. These results confirm that the perceptual process which regulates gamma power is distinct from that which governs the synchronization for neuronal firing, and both gamma power and synchrony are important factors to be considered for the "binding" hypothesis. However, there is surprisingly little effect of age on the absolute levels of or distribution of EEG gamma in the age range investigated.

Abrasion, transport and distribution of sediment in selected streams of Southern Ontario and Western New York /

The rate of decrease in mean sediment size and weight per square metre along a 54 km reach of the Credit River was found to depend on variations in the channel geometry. The distribution of a specific sediment size consist of: (1) a transport zone; (2) an accumulation zone; and (3) a depletion zone. These zones shift downstream in response to downcurrent decreases in stream competence. Along a .285 km man-made pond, within the Credit River study area, the sediment is also characterized by downstream shifting accumulation zones for each finer clast size. The discharge required to initiate movement of 8 cm and 6 cm blocks in Cazenovia Creek is closely approximated by Baker and Ritter's equation. Incipient motion of blocks in Twenty Mile Creek is best predicted by Yalin's relation which is more efficient in deeper flows. The transport distance of blocks in both streams depends on channel roughness and geometry. Natural abrasion and distribution of clasts may depend on the size of the surrounding sediment and variations in flow competence. The cumulative percent weight loss with distance of laboratory abraded dolostone is defined by a power function. The decrease in weight of dolostone follows a negative exponential. In the abrasion mill, chipping causes the high initial weight loss of dolostone; crushing and grinding produce most of the subsequent weight loss. Clast size was found to have little effect on the abrasion of dolostone within the diameter range considered. Increasing the speed of the mill increased the initial amount of weight loss but decreased the rate of abrasion. The abrasion mill was found to produce more weight loss than stream action. The maximum percent weight loss determined from laboratory and field abrasion data is approximately 40 percent of the weight loss observed along the Credit River. Selective sorting of sediment explains the remaining percentage, not accounted for by abrasion.

Water and electrolyte content and distribution in tissues of thermally-acclimated rainbow trout, Salmo gairdneri

The primary objective of this investigation was that of providing a comprehensive tissue-by-tissue assessment of water-electrolyte status in thermally-acclimated rainbow trout, Salmo gairdneri. To this end levels of water and the major ions, sodium, chloride and potassium were evaluated in the plasma, at three skeletal muscle sites, and in cardiac muscle, liver, spleen, gut and brain of animals acclimated to 2°, 10° and 18°C. The occurrence of possible seasonal variations in water-electrolyte balance was evaluated by sampling sununer and late fall-early winter populations of trout. On the basis of values for water and electrolyte content, estimates of extracellular and cellular phase volumes, cellular electrolyte concentrations and Nernst equilibrium potentials were made. Since accurate assessment of the extracellular phase volume is critical in the estimation of cellular electrolyte concentrations and parameters based on assumed cellular ion levels, [14 C]-polyethylene glycol-4000, which is assumed to be confined to the extracellular space, was employed to provide comparisons with various ion-defined spaces (H20~~s, H20~~/K and H20~~s). Subsequently, the ion-defined space yielding the most realistic estimate of extracellular phase volume for each tissue was used in cellular electrolyte calculations. Water and electrolyte content and distribution varied with temperature. Tissues, such as liver, spleen and brain appeared to be the most thermosensitive, whereas skeletal and cardiac muscle and gut tissue were less influenced. 'Summer' series trout appeared to be more capable of maintaining their water- electrolyte balance than the ~fall-winter' series animals. i The data are discussed in terms of their possible effect on maintenance of appropriate cellular metabolic and electrophysiological functions.

The Seemingly Unrelated Dynamic Cointegration Regression Model and Testing for Purching Power Parity.

This paper studies seemingly unrelated linear models with integrated regressors and stationary errors. By adding leads and lags of the first differences of the regressors and estimating this augmented dynamic regression model by feasible generalized least squares using the long-run covariance matrix, we obtain an efficient estimator of the cointegrating vector that has a limiting mixed normal distribution. Simulation results suggest that this new estimator compares favorably with others already proposed in the literature. We apply these new estimators to the testing of purchasing power parity (PPP) among the G-7 countries. The test based on the efficient estimates rejects the PPP hypothesis for most countries.

GLS Detrending, Efficient Unit Root Tests and Structural Change

We extend the class of M-tests for a unit root analyzed by Perron and Ng (1996) and Ng and Perron (1997) to the case where a change in the trend function is allowed to occur at an unknown time. These tests M(GLS) adopt the GLS detrending approach of Dufour and King (1991) and Elliott, Rothenberg and Stock (1996) (ERS). Following Perron (1989), we consider two models : one allowing for a change in slope and the other for both a change in intercept and slope. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the tests as well as that of the feasible point optimal tests PT(GLS) suggested by ERS. The asymptotic critical values of the tests are tabulated. Also, we compute the non-centrality parameter used for the local GLS detrending that permits the tests to have 50% asymptotic power at that value. We show that the M(GLS) and PT(GLS) tests have an asymptotic power function close to the power envelope. An extensive simulation study analyzes the size and power in finite samples under various methods to select the truncation lag for the autoregressive spectral density estimator. An empirical application is also provided.