Robust accelerated failure time regression

Robust estimators for accelerated failure time models with asymmetric (or symmetric) error distribution and censored observations are proposed. It is assumed that the error model belongs to a log-location-scale family of distributions and that the mean response is the parameter of interest. Since scale is a main component of mean, scale is not treated as a nuisance parameter. A three steps procedure is proposed. In the first step, an initial high breakdown point S estimate is computed. In the second step, observations that are unlikely under the estimated model are rejected or down weighted. Finally, a weighted maximum likelihood estimate is computed. To define the estimates, functions of censored residuals are replaced by their estimated conditional expectation given that the response is larger than the observed censored value. The rejection rule in the second step is based on an adaptive cut-off that, asymptotically, does not reject any observation when the data are generat ed according to the model. Therefore, the final estimate attains full efficiency at the model, with respect to the maximum likelihood estimate, while maintaining the breakdown point of the initial estimator. Asymptotic results are provided. The new procedure is evaluated with the help of Monte Carlo simulations. Two examples with real data are discussed.

Influence of weather, rank, and home advantage on football outcomes in the gulf region.

PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of weather, rank, and home advantage on international football match results and scores in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. METHODS: Football matches (n = 2008) in six GCC countries were analyzed. To determine the weather influence on the likelihood of favorable outcome and goal difference, generalized linear model with a logit link function and multiple regression analysis were performed. RESULTS: In the GCC region, home teams tend to have greater likelihood of a favorable outcome (P < 0.001) and higher goal difference (P < 0.001). Temperature difference was identified as a significant explanatory variable when used independently (P < 0.001) or after adjustment for home advantage and team ranking (P < 0.001). The likelihood of favorable outcome for GCC teams increases by 3% for every 1-unit increase in temperature difference. After inclusion of interaction with opposition, this advantage remains significant only when playing against non-GCC opponents. While home advantage increased the odds of favorable outcome (P < 0.001) and goal difference (P < 0.001) after inclusion of interaction term, the likelihood of favorable outcome for a GCC team decreased (P < 0.001) when playing against a stronger opponent. Finally, the temperature and wet bulb globe temperature approximation were found as better indicators of the effect of environmental conditions than absolute and relative humidity or heat index on match outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In GCC region, higher temperature increased the likelihood of a favorable outcome when playing against non-GCC teams. However, international ranking should be considered because an opponent with a higher rank reduced, but did not eliminate, the likelihood of a favorable outcome.

Selectome update: quality control and computational improvements to a database of positive selection.

Selectome (http://selectome.unil.ch/) is a database of positive selection, based on a branch-site likelihood test. This model estimates the number of nonsynonymous substitutions (dN) and synonymous substitutions (dS) to evaluate the variation in selective pressure (dN/dS ratio) over branches and over sites. Since the original release of Selectome, we have benchmarked and implemented a thorough quality control procedure on multiple sequence alignments, aiming to provide minimum false-positive results. We have also improved the computational efficiency of the branch-site test implementation, allowing larger data sets and more frequent updates. Release 6 of Selectome includes all gene trees from Ensembl for Primates and Glires, as well as a large set of vertebrate gene trees. A total of 6810 gene trees have some evidence of positive selection. Finally, the web interface has been improved to be more responsive and to facilitate searches and browsing.

The pulmonary embolism rule-out criteria (PERC) rule does not safely exclude pulmonary embolism.

Background: The Pulmonary Embolism Rule-out Criteria (PERC) rule is a clinical diagnostic rule designed to exclude pulmonary embolism (PE) without further testing. We sought to externally validate the diagnostic performance of the PERC rule alone and combined with clinical probability assessment based on the revised Geneva score. Methods: The PERC rule was applied retrospectively to consecutive patients who presented with a clinical suspicion of PE to six emergency departments, and who were enrolled in a randomized trial of PE diagnosis. Patients who met all eight PERC criteria [PERC(-)] were considered to be at a very low risk for PE. We calculated the prevalence of PE among PERC(-) patients according to their clinical pretest probability of PE. We estimated the negative likelihood ratio of the PERC rule to predict PE. Results: Among 1675 patients, the prevalence of PE was 21.3%. Overall, 13.2% of patients were PERC(-). The prevalence of PE was 5.4% [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.1-9.3%] among PERC(-) patients overall and 6.4% (95% CI: 3.7-10.8%) among those PERC(-) patients with a low clinical pretest probability of PE. The PERC rule had a negative likelihood ratio of 0.70 (95% CI: 0.67-0.73) for predicting PE overall, and 0.63 (95% CI: 0.38-1.06) in low-risk patients. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the PERC rule alone or even when combined with the revised Geneva score cannot safely identify very low risk patients in whom PE can be ruled out without additional testing, at least in populations with a relatively high prevalence of PE.

Phylogenetic relationships and divergence times among dormice (Rodentia, Gliridae) based on three nuclear genes

We examined phylogenetic relationships among six species representing three subfamilies, Glirinae, Graphiurinae and Leithiinae with sequences from three nuclear protein-coding genes (apolipoprotein B, APOB; interphotoreceptor retinoid-binding protein, IRBP; recombination-activating gene 1, RAG1). Phylogenetic trees reconstructed from maximum-parsimony (MP), maximum-likelihood (ML) and Bayesian-inference (BI) analyses showed the monophyly of Glirinae (Glis and Glirulus) and Leithiinae (Dryomys, Eliomys and Muscardinus) with strong support, although the branch length maintaining this relationship was very short, implying rapid diversification among the three subfamilies. Divergence time estimates were calculated from ML (local clock model) and Bayesian-dating method using a calibration point of 25 Myr (million years) ago for the divergence between Glis and Glirulus, and 55 Myr ago for the split between lineages of Gliridae and Sciuridae on the basis of fossil records. The results showed that each lineage of Graphiuros, Glis, Glirulus and Muscardinus dates from the Late Oligocene to the Early Miocene period, which is mostly in agreement with fossil records. Taking into account that warm climate harbouring a glirid-favoured forest dominated from Europe to Asia during this period, it is considered that this warm environment triggered the prosperity of the glirid species through the rapid diversification. Glirulus japonicas is suggested to be a relict of this ancient diversification during the warm period.

Infective Endocarditis in a Finnish Teaching Hospital. 25 Years of Experience of Adult Patients

Infektiivinen endokardiitti yliopistollisessa keskussairaalassa vuosina 1980-2004 hoidetuilla aikuispotilailla Tausta: Infektiivinen endokardiitti on edelleen vakava sairaus. Huolimatta siitä, että taudin diagnostiikka ja hoito ovat kehittyneet, siihen liittyy edelleen merkittävää sairastuvuutta ja kuolleisuutta. Endokardiitin taudinkuvassa on viime vuosina tapahtunut muutoksia monissa maissa. Tavoitteet: Tutkia endokardiitin kliinista kuvaa ja ennustetta suomalaisessa yliopistosairaalassa vuosina 1980-2004 endokardiitin vuoksi hoidetuilla aikuispotilailla. Aineisto: Osatyössä I endokardiitin todennäköisyyttä analysoitiin 222:lla vuosina 1980-1995 endokardiittiepäilyn vuoksi hoidetulla potilaalla käyttäen apuna sekä Duken että von Reyn diagnostisia kriteereitä. Osatyössä II tutkittiin endokardiittiin liittyviä neurologisia komplikaatioita 218 varmassa tai mahdollisessa endokardiittiepisodissa. Osatyössä III tutkittiin seerumin C-reaktiivisen proteiinin (CRP) käyttökelpoisuutta hoitovasteen arvioinnissa 134:ssä varmaksi luokitellussa endokardiittiepisodissa. Osatyössä IV tutkittiin yleisbakteeri-PCRmenetelmän käyttökelpoisuutta etiologisessa diagnostiikassa 56:lla endokardiittiepäilyn vuoksi leikatulla potilaalla. Osatöissä V ja VI analysoitiin kaikki vuosina 1980-2004 hoidetut 303 endokardiittipotilasta lyhytaikais- ja 1-vuotisennusteen suhteen sekä tutkittiin endokardiitin taudinkuvassa tapahtuneita muutoksia sairaalassamme. Tulokset: Duken kriteerit osoittautuivat von Reyn kriteereitä herkemmiksi endokardiitin diagnostiikassa: 243 tutkitusta episodista 114 luokiteltiin varmoiksi endokardiiteiksi Duken kriteereillä, kun vastaavasti ainoastaan 64 luoteltiin varmoiksi von Reyn kriteereillä (p<0.001). Lisäksi peräti 115 episodissa endokardiitin diagnoosi hylättiin von Reyn kriteereillä, kun diagnoosi hylättiin Duken kriteereillä ainoastaan 37 episodissa (p<0.001). Neurologinen komplikaatio ilmeni ennen mikrobilääkehoidon aloittamista 76 %:ssa episodeja ollen ensimmäinen oire 47 %:ssa. Kuolema oli merkitsevästi yhteydessä neurologisiin komplikaatioihin. Hoitovastetta seurattaessa seerumin CRP:n lasku oli merkitsevästi nopeampaa komplikaatioitta toipuvilla potilailla kuin niillä, joille kehittyi komplikaatioita tai jotka menehtyivät tautiinsa. PCR-tutkimus poistetusta läpästä antoi ainoana menetelmänä etiologisen diagnoosin neljässä tapauksessa (2 stafylokokkilajia, 1 Streptococcus bovis,1 Bartonella quintana), joissa kaikissa mikrobilääkehoito oli ollut käytössä ennen näytteiden ottamista. Koko aineistossa kahden läpän infektio tai neurologisten komplikaatioiden, perifeeristen embolioiden tai sydämen vajaatoiminnan kehittyminen ennustivat sekä sairaalakuolleisuutta että 1-vuotiskuolleisuutta, kun taas ≥65 vuoden ikä ja sydämen ultraäänitutkimuksessa todettu vegetaatio tai Duken luokittelun mukainen pääkriteeri ennustivat kuolemaa vuoden sisällä. Korkea CRP-taso sairaalaan tullessa ennusti sekä sairaalakuolleisuutta että 1-vuotiskuolleisuutta. Huumeiden käyttäjien endokardiitit lisääntyivät tutkimusaikana merkitsevästi (p<0.001). Päätelmät: Tässä työssä vahvistetaan Duken kriteerien käyttökelpoisuus endokardiitin diagnostiikassa. Lisäksi vahvistui käsitys, että nopea diagnoosi ja mikrobilääkehoidon aloittaminen ovat parhaat keinot ehkäistä neurologisia komplikaatioita ja parantaa endokardiittipotilaiden ennustetta. CRP:n normalisoituminen on endokardiittipotilailla hyvän ennusteen merkki. Suoraan läppäkudoksesta tehty PCR-tutkimus on hyödyllinen, kun taudin aiheuttaja on kasvuominaisuuksiltaan vaativa tai potilas on saanut mikrobilääkehoitoa ennen viljelynäytteiden ottamista. Muutamat aiemmissa tutkimuksissa todetut huonon ennusteen merkit ennustavat huonoa ennustetta myös tämän tutkimuksen potilailla. Uutena löydöksenä ilmeni, että korkea CRP-arvo sairaalaan tullessa merkitsee sekä huonoa lyhyt- että pitkäaikaisennustetta. Huumeiden käyttäjien endokardiittien ilmaantuminen on tärkein epidemiologinen muutos 25 vuoden tutkimusaikana.

Operational benefits and challenges of the use of fingerprint statistical models: a field study

Research projects aimed at proposing fingerprint statistical models based on the likelihood ratio framework have shown that low quality finger impressions left on crime scenes may have significant evidential value. These impressions are currently either not recovered, considered to be of no value when first analyzed by fingerprint examiners, or lead to inconclusive results when compared to control prints. There are growing concerns within the fingerprint community that recovering and examining these low quality impressions will result in a significant increase of the workload of fingerprint units and ultimately of the number of backlogged cases. This study was designed to measure the number of impressions currently not recovered or not considered for examination, and to assess the usefulness of these impressions in terms of the number of additional detections that would result from their examination.

Improvement of cardiovascular risk prediction: time to review current knowledge, debates, and fundamentals on how to assess test characteristics.

Cardiovascular risk assessment might be improved with the addition of emerging, new tests derived from atherosclerosis imaging, laboratory tests or functional tests. This article reviews relative risk, odds ratios, receiver-operating curves, posttest risk calculations based on likelihood ratios, the net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination. This serves to determine whether a new test has an added clinical value on top of conventional risk testing and how this can be verified statistically. Two clinically meaningful examples serve to illustrate novel approaches. This work serves as a review and basic work for the development of new guidelines on cardiovascular risk prediction, taking into account emerging tests, to be proposed by members of the 'Taskforce on Vascular Risk Prediction' under the auspices of the Working Group 'Swiss Atherosclerosis' of the Swiss Society of Cardiology in the future.

Stepwise evaluation of syncope: a prospective population-based controlled study.

BACKGROUND: Evaluation of syncope remains often unstructured. The aim of the study was to assess the effectiveness of a standardized protocol designed to improve the diagnosis of syncope. METHODS: Consecutive patients with syncope presenting to the emergency departments of two primary and tertiary care hospitals over a period of 18 months underwent a two-phase evaluation including: 1) noninvasive assessment (phase I); and 2) specialized tests (phase II), if syncope remained unexplained after phase I. During phase II, the evaluation strategy was alternately left to physicians in charge of patients (control), or guided by a standardized protocol relying on cardiac status and frequency of events (intervention). The primary outcomes were the diagnostic yield of each phase, and the impact of the intervention (phase II) measured by multivariable analysis. RESULTS: Among 1725 patients with syncope, 1579 (92%) entered phase I which permitted to establish a diagnosis in 1061 (67%) of them, including mainly reflex causes and orthostatic hypotension. Five-hundred-eighteen patients (33%) were considered as having unexplained syncope and 363 (70%) entered phase II. A cause for syncope was found in 67 (38%) of 174 patients during intervention periods, compared to 18 (9%) of 189 during control (p<0.001). Compared to control periods, intervention permitted diagnosing more cardiac (8%, vs 3%, p=0.04) and reflex syncope (25% vs 6%, p<0.001), and increased the odds of identifying a cause for syncope by a factor of 4.5 (95% CI: 2.6-8.7, p<0.001). Overall, adding the diagnostic yield obtained during phase I and phase II (intervention periods) permitted establishing the cause of syncope in 76% of patients. CONCLUSION: Application of a standardized diagnostic protocol in patients with syncope improved the likelihood of identifying a cause for this symptom. Future trials should assess the efficacy of diagnosis-specific therapy.

Potential-Scour Assessments and Estimates of Maximum Scour at Selected Bridges in Iowa, HR-344, 1995

This report presents the results of potential-scour assessments at 130 bridges and estimates of maximum scour at 10 bridges, in Iowa. All of the bridges evaluated in the study are constructed bridges (not culverts) that are sites of active or discontinued streamflow-gaging stations and peak-stage measurement sites. The period of the study was from October 1991 to September 1994. The potential-scour assessments were made using a potential-scour index developed by the U.S. Geological Survey for a study in Tennessee. Higher values of the index suggest a greater likelihood of scour-related problems occurring at a bridge. The estimates of maximum scour were made using scour equations recommended by the Federal Highway Administration. In this study, the long term aggradation or degradation that occurred during the period of streamflow data collection at each site was evaluated. Although the abutment-scour equation predicted deep scour holes at many of the sites, the only significant abutment scour that was measured was erosion of the embankment at the left abutment at one bridge after a flood.

Impacts on Safety of Left-Turn Treatment at High Speed Signalized Intersections, HR-347, 1994

Left-turning traffic is a major source of conflicts at intersections. Though an average of only 10% to 15% of all approach traffic turns left, these vehicles are involved in approximately 45% of all accidents. This report presents the results of research conducted to develop models which estimate approach accident rates at high speed signalized intersections. The objective of the research was to quantify the relationship between traffic and intersection characteristics, and accident potential of different left turn treatments. Geometric, turning movement counts, and traffic signal phasing data were collected at 100 intersections in Iowa using a questionnaire sent to municipalities. Not all questionnaires resulted in complete data and ultimately complete data were derived for 63 intersections providing a database of 248 approaches. Accident data for the same approaches were obtained from the Iowa Department of Transportation Accident Location and Analysis System (ALAS). Regression models were developed for two different dependent variables: 1) the ratio of the number of left turn accidents per approach to million left turning vehicles per approach, and 2) the ratio of accidents per approach to million traffic movements per approach. A number of regression models were developed for both dependent variables. One model using each dependent variable was developed for intersections with low, medium, and high left turning traffic volumes. As expected, the research indicates that protected left turn phasing has a lower accident potential than protected/permitted or permitted phasing. Left turn lanes and multiple lane approaches are beneficial for reducing accident rates, while raised medians increase the likelihood of accidents. Signals that are part of a signal system tend to have lower accident rates than isolated signals. The resulting regression models may be used to determine the likely impact of various left turn treatments on intersection accident rates. When designing an intersection approach, a traffic engineer may use the models to estimate the accident rate reduction as a result of improved lane configurations and left turn treatments. The safety benefits may then be compared to any costs associated with operational effects to the intersection (i.e., increased delay) to determine the benefits and costs of making intersection safety improvements.

Two Signatures For A New Blood-Based Test For Colorectal Cancer Screening

Background: Detection rates for adenoma and early colorectal cancer (CRC) are unsatisfactory due to low compliance towards invasive screening procedures such as colonoscopy. There is a large unmet screening need calling for an accurate, non-invasive and cost-effective test to screen for early neoplastic and pre-neoplastic lesions. Our goal is to identify effective biomarker combinations to develop a screening test aimed at detecting precancerous lesions and early CRC stages, based on a multigene assay performed on peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC).Methods: A pilot study was conducted on 92 subjects. Colonoscopy revealed 21 CRC, 30 adenomas larger than 1 cm and 41 healthy controls. A panel of 103 biomarkers was selected by two approaches: a candidate gene approach based on literature review and whole transcriptome analysis of a subset of this cohort by Illumina TAG profiling. Blood samples were taken from each patient and PBMC purified. Total RNA was extracted and the 103 biomarkers were tested by multiplex RT-qPCR on the cohort. Different univariate and multivariate statistical methods were applied on the PCR data and 60 biomarkers, with significant p-value (< 0.01) for most of the methods, were selected.Results: The 60 biomarkers are involved in several different biological functions, such as cell adhesion, cell motility, cell signaling, cell proliferation, development and cancer. Two distinct molecular signatures derived from the biomarker combinations were established based on penalized logistic regression to separate patients without lesion from those with CRC or adenoma. These signatures were validated using bootstrapping method, leading to a separation of patients without lesion from those with CRC (Se 67%, Sp 93%, AUC 0.87) and from those with adenoma larger than 1cm (Se 63%, Sp 83%, AUC 0.77). In addition, the organ and disease specificity of these signatures was confirmed by means of patients with other cancer types and inflammatory bowel diseases.Conclusions: The two defined biomarker combinations effectively detect the presence of CRC and adenomas larger than 1 cm with high sensitivity and specificity. A prospective, multicentric, pivotal study is underway in order to validate these results in a larger cohort.

Assessment of vascular invasion by bone and soft tissue tumours of the limbs: usefulness of MDCT angiography.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the accuracy of computed tomography angiography (CTA) in predicting arterial encasement by limb tumours, by comparing CTA with surgical findings (gold standard). METHODS: Preoperative CTA images of 55 arteries in 48 patients were assessed for arterial status: cross-sectional CTA images were scored as showing a fat plane between artery and tumour (score 0), slight contact between artery and tumour (score 1), partial arterial encasement (score 2) or total arterial encasement (score 3). Reformatted CTA images were assessed for arterial displacement, rigid wall, stenosis or occlusion. At surgery, arteries were classified as free or surgically encased; 45 arteries were free and 10 were surgically encased. RESULTS: Multivariate logistic regression identified the axial CTA score as a relevant predictor for arterial encasement and subsequent vascular intervention during surgery. All sites where CTA showed a fat plane between the tumour and the artery were classified as free at surgery (n = 28/28). The sensitivity of total arterial encasement on CTA (score 3) was 90%, specificity 93%, accuracy 93% and positive likelihood ratio 13.5. CONCLUSION: CTA evidence of total arterial encasement is a highly specific indication of arterial encasement. The presence of fat between the tumour and the artery on CTA rules out arterial involvement at surgery.

Hippocampal atrophy predicts conversion to dementia after STN-DBS in Parkinson's disease.

BACKGROUND: Hippocampal atrophy (HA) is a known predictor of dementia in Alzheimer's disease. HA has been found in advanced Parkinson's disease (PD), but no predicting value has been demonstrated yet. The identification of such a predictor in candidates for subthalamic deep brain stimulation (STN-DBS) would be of value. Our objective was to compare preoperative hippocampal volumes (HV) between PD patients who subsequently converted to dementia (PDD) after STN-DBS and those who did not (PDnD). METHODS: From a cohort of 70 consecutive STN-DBS treated PD patients, 14 converted to dementia over 25.6+/-20.2 months (PDD). They were compared to 14 matched controls (PDnD) who did not convert to dementia after 43.9+/-11.7 months. On the preoperative 3D MPRAGE MRI images, HV and total brain volumes (TBV) were measured by a blinded investigator using manual and automatic segmentation respectively. RESULTS: PDD had smaller preoperative HV than PDnD (1.95+/-0.29 ml; 2.28+/-0.33 ml; p<0.01). This difference reinforced after normalization for TBV (3.28+/-0.48, 3.93+/-0.60; p<0.01). Every 0.1 ml decrease of HV increased the likelihood to develop dementia by 24.6%. A large overlap was found between PD and PDnD HVs, precluding the identification of a cut-off score. CONCLUSIONS: As in Alzheimer's disease, HA may be a predictor of the conversion to dementia in PD. This preoperative predictor suggests that the development of dementia after STN-DBS is related to the disease progression, rather then the procedure. Further studies are needed to define a cut-off score for HA, in order to affine its predictive value for an individual patient.

PD-1 and Tim-3 regulate the expansion of tumor antigen-specific CD8⁺ T cells induced by melanoma vaccines.

Although melanoma vaccines stimulate tumor antigen-specific CD8(+) T cells, objective clinical responses are rarely observed. To investigate this discrepancy, we evaluated the character of vaccine-induced CD8(+) T cells with regard to the inhibitory T-cell coreceptors PD-1 and Tim-3 in patients with metastatic melanoma who were administered tumor vaccines. The vaccines included incomplete Freund's adjuvant, CpG oligodeoxynucleotide (CpG), and the HLA-A2-restricted analog peptide NY-ESO-1 157-165V, either by itself or in combination with the pan-DR epitope NY-ESO-1 119-143. Both vaccines stimulated rapid tumor antigen-specific CD8(+) T-cell responses detected ex vivo, however, tumor antigen-specific CD8(+) T cells produced more IFN-γ and exhibited higher lytic function upon immunization with MHC class I and class II epitopes. Notably, the vast majority of vaccine-induced CD8(+) T cells upregulated PD-1 and a minority also upregulated Tim-3. Levels of PD-1 and Tim-3 expression by vaccine-induced CD8(+) T cells at the time of vaccine administration correlated inversely with their expansion in vivo. Dual blockade of PD-1 and Tim-3 enhanced the expansion and cytokine production of vaccine-induced CD8(+) T cells in vitro. Collectively, our findings support the use of PD-1 and Tim-3 blockades with cancer vaccines to stimulate potent antitumor T-cell responses and increase the likelihood of clinical responses in patients with advanced melanoma.