Return levels of hydrologic droughts under climate change

Developments in the statistical extreme value theory, which allow non-stationary modeling of changes in the frequency and severity of extremes, are explored to analyze changes in return levels of droughts for the Colorado River. The transient future return levels (conditional quantiles) derived from regional drought projections using appropriate extreme value models, are compared with those from observed naturalized streamflows. The time of detection is computed as the time at which significant differences exist between the observed and future extreme drought levels, accounting for the uncertainties in their estimates. Projections from multiple climate model-scenario combinations are considered; no uniform pattern of changes in drought quantiles is observed across all the projections. While some projections indicate shifting to another stationary regime, for many projections which are found to be non-stationary, detection of change in tail quantiles of droughts occurs within the 21st century with no unanimity in the time of detection. Earlier detection is observed in droughts levels of higher probability of exceedance. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recent advances in purely organic phosphorescent materials

Luminescent organic materials have attracted significant attention in recent times owing to their opportunities in various functional applications. Interestingly, unlike fluorescence, opportunities hidden within the phosphorescence properties of organic compounds have received considerably less attention even until last few years. It is only in the second decade of the 21st century, within a time span of less than last 5 years, that the concepts and prospects of organic compounds as phosphorescent materials have evolved rapidly. The previously perceived limitations of organic compounds as phosphorescent materials have been overcome and several molecules have been designed using old and new concepts, such as heavy atom effects, matrix assisted isolation, hydrogen bonding and halogen bonding, thereby gaining access to a significant number of materials with efficient phosphorescent features. In addition, significant improvements have been made in the development of RTP (room temperature phosphorescent) materials, which can be used under ambient conditions. In this review, we bring together the vastly different approaches developed by various researchers to understand and appreciate this recent revolution in organic luminescent materials.

Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas

Despite high vulnerability, the impact of climate change on Himalayan ecosystem has not been properly investigated, primarily due to the inadequacy of observed data and the complex topography. In this study, we mapped the current vegetation distribution in Kashmir Himalayas from NOAA AVHRR and projected it under A1B SRES, RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 climate scenarios using the vegetation dynamics model-IBIS at a spatial resolution of 0.5A degrees. The distribution of vegetation under the changing climate was simulated for the 21st century. Climate change projections from the PRECIS experiment using the HADRM3 model, for the Kashmir region, were validated using the observed climate data from two observatories. Both the observed as well as the projected climate data showed statistically significant trends. IBIS was validated for Kashmir Himalayas by comparing the simulated vegetation distribution with the observed distribution. The baseline simulated scenario of vegetation (1960-1990), showed 87.15 % agreement with the observed vegetation distribution, thereby increasing the credibility of the projected vegetation distribution under the changing climate over the region. According to the model projections, grasslands and tropical deciduous forests in the region would be severely affected while as savannah, shrubland, temperate evergreen broadleaf forest, boreal evergreen forest and mixed forest types would colonize the area currently under the cold desert/rock/ice land cover types. The model predicted that a substantial area of land, presently under the permanent snow and ice cover, would disappear by the end of the century which might severely impact stream flows, agriculture productivity and biodiversity in the region.

Unemployment and private returns to higher education in Argentina (1974-2002)

Resumen: El trabajo analiza la evolución de los retornos privados a la educación superior en Argentina durante el período 1974–2002 y cómo éstos se vieron afectados por el desempleo. La conclusión es que los retornos a la educación son mayores si se los corrige teniendo en cuenta el desempleo para cada nivel educativo, ya que a mayor nivel, menor tasa de desempleo. Al evaluar invertir en educación no se debería considerar simplemente el diferencial de ingresos sino también la mayor probabilidad de tener un trabajo. Esto es relevante en un país como Argentina que pasó de tener tasas de desempleo cercanas a 5% en la década del ochenta a tener tasas de dos dígitos a fines del siglo XX y comienzos del XXI.

La poética del relato de viaje entre la Edad Media y el siglo XXI

Resumen: Este ensayo reproduce la conferencia plenaria pronunciada en las Undécimas Jornadas Internacionales de Literatura Española Medieval en la Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina. Pone en relación la narrativa de viajes de la Edad Media con su versión contemporánea en el mundo hispánico: después de trazar un panorama general, presenta una selección de rasgos que se mantienen sin gran variación hasta los siglos XX y XXI (doble temporalidad, presencia del azar, recursos retóricos, variaciones de lo maravilloso, etc.). En la segunda parte trata la relación con las disciplinas científicas, el relato de viaje como género, el desplazamiento, la ilustración fotográfica y la complejidad de la edición, entre otros puntos. El ensayo concluye con unas breves reflexiones sobre la valoración del relato de viaje como género literario.

Los índices de democracia y la política argentina : sobre la validez de las mediciones

Resumen: Entre quienes han emprendido estudios para medir el fenómeno de la democracia, no existe hoy un acuerdo acerca de cuál es la definición operativa sobre la que deben construirse los índices, ni tampoco sobre cuáles son los atributos que deben medirse o la regla de agregación más adecuada a fin de reflejar las similitudes y las diferencias entre regímenes en el tiempo y el espacio. Es precisamente por estas diferencias que los diferentes índices disponibles pueden bien describir historias distintas acerca de un mismo fenómeno histórico. Este trabajo tiene como objetivo comparar la manera en que algunos de estos índices relatan la evolución de la democracia, a la luz de una serie de hitos en la historia política argentina durante el siglo XX y la primera década del siglo XXI. En este trabajo se revisan cuatro de los índices más conocidos de democracia: el Índice Democracia-Dictadura de Przeworski, extendido por Cheibub; el Índice de Democracia de Vanhanen; el índice Polity IV; y el índice de Freedom House. Sobre la base de diferentes sucesos de la política argentina, desde 1900 hasta 2011, este trabajo analiza la evolución de la democracia que cada uno de estos índices relata para evaluar cuál de ellos refleja de manera más fiel los hechos que han moldeado la historia democrática Argentina.

Nanotecnologia

Descreve as principais aplicações da nanotecnologia e discute as questões éticas a ela associadas. Aborda as ações do governo brasileiro em relação a nanotecnologia. Apresenta também os principais pontos da Lei Americana sobre nanotecnologia - 21st Century Nanotechnology Research and Development Act.