Climate change impact assessment: Uncertainty modeling with imprecise probability

Hydrologic impacts of climate change are usually assessed by downscaling the General Circulation Model (GCM) output of large-scale climate variables to local-scale hydrologic variables. Such an assessment is characterized by uncertainty resulting from the ensembles of projections generated with multiple GCMs, which is known as intermodel or GCM uncertainty. Ensemble averaging with the assignment of weights to GCMs based on model evaluation is one of the methods to address such uncertainty and is used in the present study for regional-scale impact assessment. GCM outputs of large-scale climate variables are downscaled to subdivisional-scale monsoon rainfall. Weights are assigned to the GCMs on the basis of model performance and model convergence, which are evaluated with the Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) generated from the downscaled GCM output (for both 20th Century [20C3M] and future scenarios) and observed data. Ensemble averaging approach, with the assignment of weights to GCMs, is characterized by the uncertainty caused by partial ignorance, which stems from nonavailability of the outputs of some of the GCMs for a few scenarios (in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] data distribution center for Assessment Report 4 [AR4]). This uncertainty is modeled with imprecise probability, i.e., the probability being represented as an interval gray number. Furthermore, the CDF generated with one GCM is entirely different from that with another and therefore the use of multiple GCMs results in a band of CDFs. Representing this band of CDFs with a single valued weighted mean CDF may be misleading. Such a band of CDFs can only be represented with an envelope that contains all the CDFs generated with a number of GCMs. Imprecise CDF represents such an envelope, which not only contains the CDFs generated with all the available GCMs but also to an extent accounts for the uncertainty resulting from the missing GCM output. This concept of imprecise probability is also validated in the present study. The imprecise CDFs of monsoon rainfall are derived for three 30-year time slices, 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, with A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The model is demonstrated with the prediction of monsoon rainfall in Orissa meteorological subdivision, which shows a possible decreasing trend in the future.

Essays on Misplanning Wealth and Health: A Behavioural Approach

The dissertation consists of three essays on misplanning wealth and health accumulation. The conventional economics assumes that individual's intertemporal preferences are exponential (exponential preferences, EP). Recent findings in behavioural economics have shown that, actually, people do discount near future relatively heavier than distant future. This implies hyperbolic intertemporal preferences (HP). Essays I and II concentrate especially on the effects of a delayed completion of tasks, a feature of behaviour that HP enables. Essay III uses current Finnish data to analyse the evolvement of the quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and inconsistencies in measuring that. Essay I studies the existence effects of a lucrative retirement savings program (SP) on the retirement savings of different individual types having HP. If the individual does not know that he will have HP also in the future, i.e. he is the naïve, for certain conditions, he delays the enrolment on SP until he abandons it. Very interesting finding is that the naïve retires then poorer in the presence than in the absence of SP. For the same conditions, the individual who knows that he will have HP also in the future, i.e. he is the sophisticated, gains from the existence of SP, and retires with greater retirement savings in the presence than in the absence of SP. Finally, capabilities to learn from past behaviour and about intertemporal preferences improve possibilities to gain from the existence but an adequate time to learn must be then guaranteed. Essay II studies delayed doctor's visits, theirs effects on the costs of a public health care system and government's attempts to control patient behaviour and fund the system. The controlling devices are a consultation fee and a deductible for that. The deductible is effective only for a patient whose diagnosis reveals a disease that would not get cured without the doctor's visit. The naives delay their visits the longest while EP-patients are the quickest visitors. To control the naives, the government should implement a low fee and a high deductible, while for the sophisticates the opposite is true. Finally, if all the types exist in an economy then using an incorrect conventional assumption that all individuals have EP leads to worse situation and requires higher tax rates than assuming incorrectly but unconventionally that only the naives exists. Essay III studies the development of QALYs in Finland 1995/96-2004. The essay concentrates on developing a consistent measure, i.e. independent of discounting, for measuring the age and gender specific QALY-changes and their incidences. For the given time interval, use of a relative change out of an attainable change seems to be almost intact to discounting and reveals that the greatest gains are for older age groups.

A model for determining the optimal project life span and concession period of BOT projects

The concession agreement is the core feature of BOT projects, with the concession period being the most essential feature in determining the time span of the various rights, obligations and responsibilities of the government and concessionaire. Concession period design is therefore crucial for financial viability and determining the benefit/cost allocation between the host government and the concessionaire. However, while the concession period and project life span are essentially interdependent, most methods to date consider their determination as contiguous events that are determined exogenously. Moreover, these methods seldom consider the, often uncertain, social benefits and costs involved that are critical in defining, pricing and distributing benefits and costs between the various parties and evaluating potentially distributable cash flows. In this paper, we present the results of the first stage of a research project aimed at determining the optimal build-operate-transfer (BOT) project life span and concession period endogenously and interdependently by maximizing the combined benefits of stakeholders. Based on the estimation of the economic and social development involved, a negotiation space of the concession period interval is obtained, with its lower boundary creating the desired financial return for the private investors and its upper boundary ensuring the economic feasibility of the host government as well as the maximized welfare within the project life. The outcome of the new quantitative model is considered as a suitable basis for future field trials prior to implementation. The structure and details of the model are provided in the paper with Hong Kong tunnel project as a case study to demonstrate its detailed application. The basic contributions of the paper to the theory of construction procurement are that the project life span and concession period are determined jointly and the social benefits taken into account in the examination of project financial benefits. In practical terms, the model goes beyond the current practice of linear-process thinking and should enable engineering consultants to provide project information more rationally and accurately to BOT project bidders and increase the government's prospects of successfully entering into a contract with a concessionaire. This is expected to generate more negotiation space for the government and concessionaire in determining the major socioeconomic features of individual BOT contracts when negotiating the concession period. As a result, the use of the model should increase the total benefit to both parties.

Experiments on the fine structure of turbulence

Investigations have been carried out of some aspects of the fine-scale structure of turbulence in grid flows, in boundary layers in a zero pressure gradient and in a boundary layer in a strong favourable pressure gradient leading to relaminarization. Using a narrow-band filter with suitable mid-band frequencies, the properties of the fine-scale structure (appearing as high frequency pulses in the filtered signal) were analysed using the variable discriminator level technique employed earlier by Rao, Narasimha & Badri Narayanan (1971). It was found that, irrespective of the type of flow, the characteristic pulse frequency (say Np) defined by Rao et al. was about 0·6 times the frequency of the zero crossings. It was also found that, over the small range of Reynolds numbers tested, the ratio of the width of the fine-scale regions to the Kolmogorov scale increased linearly with Reynolds number in grid turbulence as well as in flat-plate boundarylayer flow. Nearly lognormal distributions were exhibited by this ratio as well as by the interval between successive zero crossings. The values of Np and of the zero-crossing rate were found to be nearly constant across the boundary layer, except towards its outer edge and very near the wall. In the zero-pressure-gradient boundary-layer flow, very near the wall the high frequency pulses were found to occur mostly when the longitudinal velocity fluctuation u was positive (i.e. above the mean), whereas in the outer part of the boundary layer the pulses more often occurred when u was negative. During acceleration this correlation between the fine-scale motion and the sign of u was less marked.

The global burden of injury: Incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and time trends from the Global Burden of Disease study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors study used the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) to quantify the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. This paper provides an overview of injury estimates from the 2013 update of GBD, with detailed information on incidence, mortality, DALYs and rates of change from 1990 to 2013 for 26 causes of injury, globally, by region and by country. Methods Injury mortality was estimated using the extensive GBD mortality database, corrections for ill-defined cause of death and the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient data sets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories, and seven follow-up studies with patient-reported long-term outcome measures. Results In 2013, 973 million (uncertainty interval (UI) 942 to 993) people sustained injuries that warranted some type of healthcare and 4.8 million (UI 4.5 to 5.1) people died from injuries. Between 1990 and 2013 the global age-standardised injury DALY rate decreased by 31% (UI 26% to 35%). The rate of decline in DALY rates was significant for 22 cause-of-injury categories, including all the major injuries. Conclusions Injuries continue to be an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed and developing world. The decline in rates for almost all injuries is so prominent that it warrants a general statement that the world is becoming a safer place to live in. However, the patterns vary widely by cause, age, sex, region and time and there are still large improvements that need to be made.