Econometric analysis of microscopic simulation models

Microscopic simulation models are often evaluated based on visual inspection of the results. This paper presents formal econometric techniques to compare microscopic simulation (MS) models with real-life data. A related result is a methodology to compare different MS models with each other. For this purpose, possible parameters of interest, such as mean returns, or autocorrelation patterns, are classified and characterized. For each class of characteristics, the appropriate techniques are presented. We illustrate the methodology by comparing the MS model developed by He and Li [J. Econ. Dynam. Control, 2007, 31, 3396-3426, Quant. Finance, 2008, 8, 59-79] with actual data.

Fasciola hepatica: Histology of the testis in egg-producing adults of several laboratory-maintained isolates of flukes grown to maturity in cattle and sheep and in flukes from naturally infected hosts

A total of 8 calves approximately 6 months old and 22 lambs of similar age were infected with metacercariae of Fasciola hepatica of various laboratory-maintained isolates including: Cullompton (sensitive to triclabendazole) and Sligo, Oberon and Leon (reported as resistant to triclabendazole). Ten to 16 weeks after infection, flukes were harvested from these experimental animals and the histology of the testis tissue was examined in a representative sample of flukes from each population. Adult wild-type flukes were also collected from 5 chronically infected cattle and 7 chronically infected sheep identified at post-mortem inspection. The testis tissue of these flukes was compared with that of the various laboratory-maintained isolates. Whilst the testes of the wild-type, Oberon and Leon flukes displayed all the usual cell types associated with spermatogenesis in Fasciola hepatica (spermatogonia, spermatocytes, spermatids and mature sperm), the Cullompton flukes from both cattle and sheep showed arrested spermatogenesis, with no stages later than primary spermatocytes represented in the testis profiles. The presence of numerous eosinophilic apoptotic bodies and nuclear fragments suggested that meiotic division was anomalous and incomplete. In contrast to the wild-type flukes, no mature spermatozoa were present in the testes or amongst the shelled eggs in the uterus. A high proportion of the eggs collected from these flukes hatched to release normal-appearing miracidia after an appropriate incubation period, as indeed was the case with all isolates examined and the wild-type flukes. It is concluded that the eggs of Cullompton flukes are capable of development without fertilization, i.e. are parthenogenetic. The implications of this for rapid evolution of resistant clones following an anthelmintic selection event are discussed. Amongst the Sligo flukes examined, two subtypes were recognised, namely, those flukes with all stages of spermatogenesis and mature spermatozoa present in the testes (type 1), and those flukes with all stages of spermatogenesis up to spermatids present, but no maturing spermatozoa in the testes (type 2). Each sheep infected with the Sligo isolate had both type 1 (approximately 60%) and type 2 (approximately 40%) flukes present in the population. Spermatozoa were found amongst the eggs in the uterus in 64% of flukes and this did not necessarily reflect the occurrence of spermatozoa in the testis profiles of particular flukes, suggesting that cross-fertilization had occurred. The apparent disruption of meiosis in the spermatocytes of the Cullompton flukes is consistent with reports that Cullompton flukes are triploid (3n = 30), whereas the Sligo and wild-type flukes are diploid (2n = 20). In the Sligo flukes the populations are apparently genetically heterogenous, with a proportion of the flukes unable to produce fully formed spermatozoa perhaps because of a failure in spermiogenesis involving elongation of the nucleus during morphogenesis. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Championing the interface between mental health and child protection: evaluation of a service initiative to improve joint working in Northern Ireland

The importance of establishing effective interagency working between adult mental health services and child care services in order to safeguard children has been repeatedly identified by research, policy, inquiries and inspection reports. This article reports on the evaluation of an initiative in one Health and Social Care Trust in Northern Ireland that aimed to facilitate joint working and so improve service provision and protection for children and families. The Champions Initiative involved identifying a champion in each multi-disciplinary community mental health team and in each family and child care team who would have responsibility for providing information, promoting joint working and identifying any obstacles to better co-operation. The evaluation of this initiative assessed levels of experience, training, confidence, understanding and awareness in the Champions and their team members at baseline. The Champions and their Team Leaders were then followed-up after six months to obtain their qualitative views of the impact of the initiative. The results include comparisons between mental health and child care staff, and crucially, views about whether the initiative has had any impact on working together. This study also generated recommendations for further service development in this complex and important area of practice.

Quasi-classical model of non-destructive wavepacket manipulation by intense ultrashort nonresonant laser pulses

A quasi-classical model (QCM) of nuclear wavepacket generation, modification and imaging by three intense ultrafast near-infrared laser pulses has been developed. Intensities in excess of 10(13) W cm(-2) are studied, the laser radiation is non-resonant and pulse durations are in the few-cycle regime, hence significantly removed from the conditions typical of coherent control and femtochemistry. The 1s sigma ground state of the D-2 precursor is projected onto the available electronic states in D-2(+) (1s sigma(g) ground and 2p sigma(u) dissociative) and D+ + D+ (Coulomb explosion) by tunnel ionization by an ultrashort 'pump' pulse, and relative populations are found numerically. A generalized non-adiabatic treatment allows the dependence of the initial vibrational population distribution on laser intensity to be calculated. The wavepacket is approximated as a classical ensemble of particles moving on the 1s sigma(g) potential energy surface (PES), and hence follow trajectories of different amplitudes and frequencies depending on the initial vibrational state. The 'control' pulse introduces a time-dependent polarization of the molecular orbital, causing the PES to be modified according to the dynamic Stark effect and the transition dipole. The trajectories adjust in amplitude, frequency and phase-offset as work is done on or by the resulting force; comparing the perturbed and unperturbed trajectories allows the final vibrational state populations and phases to be determined. The action of the 'probe' pulse is represented by a discrete internuclear boundary, such that elements of the ensemble at a larger internuclear separation are assumed to be photodissociated. The vibrational populations predicted by the QCM are compared to recent quantum simulations (Niederhausen and Thumm 2008 Phys. Rev. A 77 013404), and a remarkable agreement has been found. The applicability of this model to femtosecond and attosecond time-scale experiments is discussed and the relation to established femtochemistry and coherent control techniques are explored.

Does atypical work help the jobless? Evidence from a CAEAS/CPS cohort analysis

Atypical employment, such as temporary, on-call and contract work, has been found disproportionately to attract the jobless. But there is no consensus in the literature as to the labour market consequences of such job choice by unemployed individuals. Using data from the Current Population Survey, we investigate the implications of the initial job-finding strategies pursued by the jobless for their short- and medium-term employment stability. At first sight, it appears that taking an offer of regular employment provides the greatest degree of employment continuity for the jobless. However, closer inspection indicates that the jobless who take up atypical employment are not only more likely to be employed 1 month and 1 year later than those who continue to search, but also to enjoy employment continuity that is not less favourable than that offered by regular, open-ended employment.

Multiplex analysis of age-related protein and lipid modifications in human Bruch's membrane

Aging of the human retina is characterized by progressive pathology, which can lead to vision loss. This progression is believed to involve reactive metabolic intermediates reacting with constituents of Bruch's membrane, significantly altering its physiochemical nature and function. We aimed to replace a myriad of techniques following these changes with one, Raman spectroscopy. We used multiplexed Raman spectroscopy to analyze the age-related changes in 7 proteins, 3 lipids, and 8 advanced glycation/lipoxidation endproducts (AGEs/ALEs) in 63 postmortem human donors. We provided an important database for Raman spectra from a broad range of AGEs and ALEs, each with a characteristic fingerprint. Many of these adducts were shown for the first time in human Bruch's membrane and are significantly associated with aging. The study also introduced the previously unreported up-regulation of heme during aging of Bruch's membrane, which is associated with AGE/ALE formation. Selection of donors ranged from ages 32 to 92 yr. We demonstrated that Raman spectroscopy can identify and quantify age-related changes in a single nondestructive measurement, with potential to measure age-related changes in vivo. We present the first directly recorded evidence of the key role of heme in AGE/ALE formation.

ARE OECD MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES TREND STATIONARY? EVIDENCE FROM PANEL STATIONARITY TESTS ALLOWING FOR A STRUCTURAL BREAK AND CROSS-SECTIONAL DEPENDENCE

This article applies the panel stationarity test with a break proposed by Hadri and Rao (2008) to examine whether 14 macroeconomic variables of OECD countries can be best represented as random walk or stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend. In contrast to previous studies, based essentially on visual inspection of the break type or just applying the most general break model, we use a model selection procedure based on BIC. We do this for each time series so that heterogeneous break models are allowed for in the panel. Our results suggest, overwhelmingly, that if we account for a structural break, cross-sectional dependence and choose the break models to be congruent with the data, then the null of stationarity cannot be rejected for all the 14 macroeconomic variables examined in this article. This is in sharp contrast with the results obtained by Hurlin (2004), using the same data but a different methodology.

Microcomputed tomography imaging in a rat model of delayed union/non-union fracture

We aimed to develop a clinically relevant delayed union/non-union fracture model to evaluate a cell therapy intervention repair strategy. Histology, three-dimensional (3D) micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) imaging and mechanical testing were utilized to develop an analytical protocol for qualitative and quantitative assessment of fracture repair. An open femoral diaphyseal osteotomy, combined with periosteal diathermy and endosteal excision, was held in compression by a four pin unilateral external fixator. Three delayed union/non-union fracture groups established at 6 weeks-(a) a control group, (b) a cell therapy group, and (c) a group receiving phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) injection alone-were examined subsequently at 8 and 14 weeks. The histological response was combined fibrous and cartilaginous non-unions in groups A and B with fibrous non-unions in group C. Mineralized callus volume/total volume percentage showed no statistically significant differences between groups. Endosteal calcified tissue volume/endosteal tissue volume, at the center of the fracture site, displayed statistically significant differences between 8 and 14 weeks for cell and PBS intervention groups but not for the control group. The percentage load to failure was significantly lower in the control and cell treatment groups than in the PBS alone group. High-resolution micro-CT imaging provides a powerful tool to augment characterization of repair in delayed union/non-union fractures together with outcomes such as histology and mechanical strength measurement. Accurate, nondestructive, 3D identification of mineralization progression in repairing fractures is enabled in the presence or absence of intervention strategies. (c) 2007 Orthopaedic Research Society.

Identification of dyes on ancient Chinese paper samples using the subtracted shifted Raman spectroscopy method

The Stein Collection in the British Library contains the Diamond Sutra, the world's oldest, dated, printed document. The paper of the Diamond Sutra and other documents from the Stein collection is believed to be dyed yellow by a natural extract, called huangbo, from the bark of Phellodendron amurense, which contains three major yellow chromophores: berberine, palmatine, and jatrorrhizine, Conservation of these documents requires definite information on the chemical composition of the dyes but no suitable, completely noninvasive analytical method is known. Here we report resonance Raman studies of a series of prate dyes, of plant materials and extracts, and of dyed ancient and modern paper samples. Resonance Raman spectroscopy is used to enhance the spectra of the dyes over the signals from the paper matrixes in which they are held. The samples an give resonance Raman spectra which are dominated by intense fluorescence, but by using SSRS (subtracted shifted Raman spectroscopy) we have obtained reliable spectra of the pure dyes, native bark from the Phellodendron amurense, modern paper dyed with huangbo extracted from this bark, and ancient paper samples. For both ancient paper samples whose pigment bands were detected, the relative intensities of the bands due to berberine and palmatine suggest that the ancient paper is richer in berberine than its modern counterpart, This is the first nondestructive in situ method for detection of these pigments in manuscripts, and as such has considerable potential benefit for the treatment of irreplaceable documents that are believed to be dyed with huangbo but documents on which conservation work cannot proceed without definite identification of the chemical compounds that they contain.

Measuring Inconsistency in a Network Intrusion Detection Rule Set Based on Snort

In this preliminary study, we investigate how inconsistency in a network intrusion detection rule set can be measured. To achieve this, we first examine the structure of these rules which are based on Snort and incorporate regular expression (Regex) pattern matching. We then identify primitive elements in these rules in order to translate the rules into their (equivalent) logical forms and to establish connections between them. Additional rules from background knowledge are also introduced to make the correlations among rules more explicit. We measure the degree of inconsistency in formulae of such a rule set (using the Scoring function, Shapley inconsistency values and Blame measure for prioritized knowledge) and compare the informativeness of these measures. Finally, we propose a new measure of inconsistency for prioritized knowledge which incorporates the normalized number of atoms in a language involved in inconsistency to provide a deeper inspection of inconsistent formulae. We conclude that such measures are useful for the network intrusion domain assuming that introducing expert knowledge for correlation of rules is feasible.