938 resultados para Non-parametric regression methods


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Intervertebral disc (IVD) degeneration is a major cause of pain and disability; yet therapeutic options are limited and treatment often remains unsatisfactory. In recent years, research activities have intensified in tissue engineering and regenerative medicine, and pre-clinical studies have demonstrated encouraging results. Nonetheless, the translation of new biological therapies into clinical practice faces substantial barriers. During the symposium "Where Science meets Clinics", sponsored by the AO Foundation and held in Davos, Switzerland, from September 5-7, 2013, hurdles for translation were outlined, and ways to overcome them were discussed. With respect to cell therapy for IVD repair, it is obvious that regenerative treatment is indicated at early stages of disc degeneration, before structural changes have occurred. It is envisaged that in the near future, screening techniques and non-invasive imaging methods will be available to detect early degenerative changes. The promises of cell therapy include a sustained effect on matrix synthesis, inflammation control, and prevention of angio- and neuro-genesis. Discogenic pain, originating from "black discs" or annular injury, prevention of adjacent segment disease, and prevention of post-discectomy syndrome were identified as prospective indications for cell therapy. Before such therapy can safely and effectively be introduced into clinics, the identification of the patient population and proper standardisation of diagnostic parameters and outcome measurements are indispensable. Furthermore, open questions regarding the optimal cell type and delivery method need to be resolved in order to overcome the safety concerns implied with certain procedures. Finally, appropriate large animal models and well-designed clinical studies will be required, particularly addressing safety aspects.

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Dua and Miller (1996) created leading and coincident employment indexes for the state of Connecticut, following Moore's (1981) work at the national level. The performance of the Dua-Miller indexes following the recession of the early 1990s fell short of expectations. This paper performs two tasks. First, it describes the process of revising the Connecticut Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes. Second, it analyzes the statistical properties and performance of the new indexes by comparing the lead profiles of the new and old indexes as well as their out-of-sample forecasting performance, using the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) method. The new indexes show improved performance in dating employment cycle chronologies. The lead profile test demonstrates that superiority in a rigorous, non-parametric statistic fashion. The mixed evidence on the BVAR forecasting experiments illustrates the truth in the Granger and Newbold (1986) caution that leading indexes properly predict cycle turning points and do not necessarily provide accurate forecasts except at turning points, a view that our results support.

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In spite of the movement to turn political science into a real science, various mathematical methods that are now the staples of physics, biology, and even economics are thoroughly uncommon in political science, especially the study of civil war. This study seeks to apply such methods - specifically, ordinary differential equations (ODEs) - to model civil war based on what one might dub the capabilities school of thought, which roughly states that civil wars end only when one side’s ability to make war falls far enough to make peace truly attractive. I construct several different ODE-based models and then test them all to see which best predicts the instantaneous capabilities of both sides of the Sri Lankan civil war in the period from 1990 to 1994 given parameters and initial conditions. The model that the tests declare most accurate gives very accurate predictions of state military capabilities and reasonable short term predictions of cumulative deaths. Analysis of the model reveals the scale of the importance of rebel finances to the sustainability of insurgency, most notably that the number of troops required to put down the Tamil Tigers is reduced by nearly a full order of magnitude when Tiger foreign funding is stopped. The study thus demonstrates that accurate foresight may come of relatively simple dynamical models, and implies the great potential of advanced and currently unconventional non-statistical mathematical methods in political science.

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The prevalence of sleep difficulties among the patients seen in the primary care settings is about 30%. This problem increases with age and is more common among females than males. Variations are noticed in prescription choices for different patients with sleep difficulties. Many factors affect a physician's prescription decision while chosen from a wide array of available medications. Both pharmacological and behavioral therapies are available for the treatment of sleep difficulties. It is important to know the impact of use of different types of prescriptions on health outcomes related to sleep difficulties. Thus the knowledge of prescription patterns among different types of patients (e.g. age, gender, race, insurance type etc.) becomes important for determining a clinical guideline. This study is designed to assist in evidence-based policymaking on understanding the variations in physician prescriptions for sleep difficulties and reasons for such variations. ^ A modified version of the model suggested by Eisenberg was used as a theoretical framework for this study to predict the factors influencing treatment of sleep difficulties. Multivariate logistic regression methods were used to analyze the 1996–2001 National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey data. ^ This study found that increased age, female gender, white race, established patients, and mental comorbidity were associated with significantly increased likelihood for prescription of some type of therapy for sleep difficulties in US outpatient settings. Patients with private insurance were associated with lower likelihood of receipt of many therapies. Psychiatrists were more likely to prescribe some kind of treatment as well as more expensive therapies for sleep difficulty as compared to other physician specialties. HMO enrolled patient visits were more likely to be associated with receipt of behavioral therapy. This study also found that 32% of patients with sleep difficulties received no type of therapy during their visits. Only 5% of the patients received behavioral therapy only. Almost three-quarters of the patients receiving some kind of medication prescription were prescribed benzodiazepines. The study results also suggest a need for wider coverage of behavioral therapy by payers in US outpatient settings. ^

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The healthcare industry spends billions on worker injury and employee turnover. Hospitals and healthcare settings have one of the highest rates of lost days due to injuries. The occupational hazards for healthcare workers can be classified into biological, chemical, ergonomic, physical, organizational, and psychosocial. Therefore, interventions addressing a range of occupational health risks are needed to prevent injuries and reduce turnover and reduce costs. ^ The Sacred Vocation Program (SVP) seeks to change the content of work, i.e., the meaningfulness of work, to improve work environments. The SVP intervenes at both the individual and organizational level. First the SVP attempts to connect healthcare workers with meaning from their work through a series of 5 self-discovery group sessions. In a sixth session the graduates take an oath recommitting them to do their work as a vocation. Once motivated to connect with meaning in their work, a representative employee group meets in a second set of five meetings. This representative group suggests organizational changes to create a culture that supports employees in their calling. The employees present their plan in the twelfth session to management beginning a new phase in the existing dialogue between employees and management. ^ The SVP was implemented in a large Dallas hospital (almost 1000 licensed beds). The Baylor University Medical Center (BUMC) Pastoral Care department invited front-line caregivers (primarily Patient Care Assistants, PCAs, or Patient Care Technicians, PCTs) to participate in the SVP. Participants completed SVP questionnaires at the beginning and following SVP implementation. Following implementation, employer records were collected on injury, absence and turnover to further evaluate the program's effectiveness on metrics that are meaningful to managers in assessing organizational performance. This provided an opportunity to perform an epidemiological evaluation of the intervention using the two sources of information: employee self-reports and employer administrative data. ^ The ability to evaluate the effectiveness of the SVP on program outcomes could be limited by the strength of the measures used. An ordinal CFA performed on baseline SVP questionnaire measurements examined the construct validity and reliability of the SVP scales. Scales whose item-factor structure was confirmed in ordinal CFA were evaluated for their psychometric properties (i.e., reliability, mean, ceiling and floor effects). CFA supported the construct validity of six of the proposed scales: blocks to spirituality, meaning at work, work satisfaction, affective commitment, collaborative communication, and MHI-5. Five of the six scales confirmed had acceptable measures of reliability (all but MHI-5 had α>0.7). All six scales had a high percentage (>30%) of the scores at the ceiling. These findings supported the use of these items in the evaluation of change although strong ceiling effects may hinder discerning change. ^ Next, the confirmed SVP scales were used to evaluate whether the intervention improved program constructs. To evaluate the SVP a one group pretest-posttest design compared participants’ self-reports before and after the intervention. It was hypothesized that measurements of reduced blocks to spirituality (α = 0.76), meaning at work (α = 0.86), collaborative communication (α = 0.67) and SVP job tasks (α = 0.97) would improve following SVP implementation. The SVP job tasks scale was included even though it was not included in the ordinal CFA analysis due to a limited sample and high inter-item correlation. Changes in scaled measurements were assessed using multilevel linear regression methods. All post-intervention measurements increased (increases <0.28 points) but only reduced blocks to spirituality was statistically significant (0.22 points on a scale from 1 to 7, p < 0.05) after adjustment for covariates. Intensity of the intervention (stratifying on high participation units) strengthened effects; but were not statistically significant. The findings provide preliminary support for the hypothesis that meaning in work can be improved and, importantly, lend greater credence to any observed improvements in the outcomes. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)^

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Background. An enlarged tracheoesophageal puncture (TEP) results in aspiration around the voice prosthesis (VP) and may lead to pneumonia. The aims of this research were: (1) to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis on enlarged TEP; (2) to analyze preoperative, perioperative, and postoperative risk factors for enlarged TEP; and (3) to evaluate control of leakage around the VP using conservative treatments and adverse events in patients with enlarged TEP.^ Methods. A systematic review was conducted (1978-2008). A summary risk estimate was calculated using a random-effects meta-analysis model. A retrospective cohort study was completed. Patients who underwent total laryngectomy and TEP at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) were included. Multiple logistic regression methods were used to assess risk factors for enlargement. Descriptive and bivariate statistics were calculated to evaluate outcomes and adverse events. Results: Twenty-seven manuscripts were included in the systematic review. The summary risk estimate of enlarged TEP/leakage around the VP was 7.2% (95% CI: 4.8%-9.6%). Temporary VP removal and TEP-site injections were the most commonly reported treatments. Neither prosthetic diameter (p=0.076) nor timing of TEP (p=0.297) significantly increased risk of enlargement per stratified analyses of published outcomes. The cumulative incidence of enlarged TEP was 18.6% (36/194, 95% CI: 13.0%-24.1%) in the MDACC cohort. Enlarged TEP occurred exclusively in irradiated patients. Adjusting for length of follow-up and timing of TEP, advanced nodal disease (ORadjusted: 4.3, 95% CI: 1.0-19.1), stricture (ORadjusted : 3.2, 95% CI: 1.2-8.6), and locoregional recurrence/distant metastasis after laryngectomy (ORadjusted: 6.2, 95% CI: 2.3-16.4) increased risk of enlarged TEP. At last follow-up, conservative methods controlled leakage around the VP in 81% (29/36) of patients. Unresolved leakage was associated with recurrent cancer (p=0.081) and TEP-site irregularity (p=0.003). Relative to those without enlargement, enlarged TEP patients had significantly higher risk of pneumonia (RR: 3.4, 95% CI: 1.9-6.2).^ Conclusions. These data establish that enlarged TEP poses serious health risks, and provide insight into medical and oncologic factors that may contribute to development of this complication. In addition, this research supports the use of conservative treatments to address leakage after enlarged TEP in lieu of complete TEP closure.^

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The objectives of this study were to identify and measure the average outcomes of the Open Door Mission's nine-month community-based substance abuse treatment program, identify predictors of successful outcomes, and make recommendations to the Open Door Mission for improving its treatment program.^ The Mission's program is exclusive to adult men who have limited financial resources: most of which were homeless or dependent on parents or other family members for basic living needs. Many, but not all, of these men are either chemically dependent or have a history of substance abuse.^ This study tracked a cohort of the Mission's graduates throughout this one-year study and identified various indicators of success at short-term intervals, which may be predictive of longer-term outcomes. We tracked various levels of 12-step program involvement, as well as other social and spiritual activities, such as church affiliation and recovery support.^ Twenty-four of the 66 subjects, or 36% met the Mission's requirements for success. Specific to this success criteria; Fifty-four, or 82% reported affiliation with a home church; Twenty-six, or 39% reported full-time employment; Sixty-one, or 92% did not report or were not identified as having any post-treatment arrests or incarceration, and; Forty, or 61% reported continuous abstinence from both drugs and alcohol.^ Five research-based hypotheses were developed and tested. The primary analysis tool was the web-based non-parametric dependency modeling tool, B-Course, which revealed some strong associations with certain variables, and helped the researchers generate and test several data-driven hypotheses. Full-time employment is the greatest predictor of abstinence: 95% of those who reported full time employment also reported continuous post-treatment abstinence, while 50% of those working part-time were abstinent and 29% of those with no employment were abstinent. Working with a 12-step sponsor, attending aftercare, and service with others were identified as predictors of abstinence.^ This study demonstrates that associations with abstinence and the ODM success criteria are not simply based on one social or behavioral factor. Rather, these relationships are interdependent, and show that abstinence is achieved and maintained through a combination of several 12-step recovery activities. This study used a simple assessment methodology, which demonstrated strong associations across variables and outcomes, which have practical applicability to the Open Door Mission for improving its treatment program. By leveraging the predictive capability of the various success determination methodologies discussed and developed throughout this study, we can identify accurate outcomes with both validity and reliability. This assessment instrument can also be used as an intervention that, if operationalized to the Mission’s clients during the primary treatment program, may measurably improve the effectiveness and outcomes of the Open Door Mission.^

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Research provides evidence of the positive health effects associated with regular physical activity participation in all populations. Activity may prove to be especially beneficial in those with chronic conditions such as cancer. However, the majority of cancer patients and survivors do not participate in the recommended amount of physical activity. The purpose of this dissertation was to identify factors associated with physical activity participation, describe how these factors change as result of a diet and exercise intervention, and to evaluate correlates of long term physical activity maintenance. ^ For this dissertation, I analyzed data from the FRESH START trial, a randomized, single-blind, phase II clinical trial focused on improving diet and physical activity among recently diagnosed breast and prostate cancer survivors. Analyses included both parametric and non-parametric statistical tests. Three separate studies were conducted, with sample sizes ranging from 400 to 486. ^ Common barriers to exercise, such as “no willpower,” “too busy,” and “I have pain,” were reported among breast and prostate cancer survivors; however, these barriers were not significantly associated with minutes of physical activity. Breast cancer survivors reported a greater number of total barriers to exercise as well as higher proportions reporting individual barriers, compared to prostate cancer survivors. Just less than half of participants reduced their total number of barriers to exercise from baseline to 1-year follow-up, and those who did reduce barriers reported greater increases in minutes of physical activity compared to those who reported no change in barriers to exercise. Participants in both the tailored and standardized intervention groups reported greater minutes of physical activity at 2-year follow-up compared to baseline. Overall, twelve percent of participants reached recommended levels of physical activity at both 1- and 2-year follow-up. Self-efficacy was positively associated with physical activity maintenance, and the number of total barriers to exercise was inversely associated with physical activity maintenance. ^ Results from this dissertation are novel and informative, and will help to guide future physical activity interventions among cancer survivors. Thoughtfully designed interventions may encourage greater participation in physical activity and ultimately improve overall quality of life in this population. ^

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The need for timely population data for health planning and Indicators of need has Increased the demand for population estimates. The data required to produce estimates is difficult to obtain and the process is time consuming. Estimation methods that require less effort and fewer data are needed. The structure preserving estimator (SPREE) is a promising technique not previously used to estimate county population characteristics. This study first uses traditional regression estimation techniques to produce estimates of county population totals. Then the structure preserving estimator, using the results produced in the first phase as constraints, is evaluated.^ Regression methods are among the most frequently used demographic methods for estimating populations. These methods use symptomatic indicators to predict population change. This research evaluates three regression methods to determine which will produce the best estimates based on the 1970 to 1980 indicators of population change. Strategies for stratifying data to improve the ability of the methods to predict change were tested. Difference-correlation using PMSA strata produced the equation which fit the data the best. Regression diagnostics were used to evaluate the residuals.^ The second phase of this study is to evaluate use of the structure preserving estimator in making estimates of population characteristics. The SPREE estimation approach uses existing data (the association structure) to establish the relationship between the variable of interest and the associated variable(s) at the county level. Marginals at the state level (the allocation structure) supply the current relationship between the variables. The full allocation structure model uses current estimates of county population totals to limit the magnitude of county estimates. The limited full allocation structure model has no constraints on county size. The 1970 county census age - gender population provides the association structure, the allocation structure is the 1980 state age - gender distribution.^ The full allocation model produces good estimates of the 1980 county age - gender populations. An unanticipated finding of this research is that the limited full allocation model produces estimates of county population totals that are superior to those produced by the regression methods. The full allocation model is used to produce estimates of 1986 county population characteristics. ^

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The research project is an extension of a series of administrative science and health care research projects evaluating the influence of external context, organizational strategy, and organizational structure upon organizational success or performance. The research will rely on the assumption that there is not one single best approach to the management of organizations (the contingency theory). As organizational effectiveness is dependent on an appropriate mix of factors, organizations may be equally effective based on differing combinations of factors. The external context of the organization is expected to influence internal organizational strategy and structure and in turn the internal measures affect performance (discriminant theory). The research considers the relationship of external context and organization performance.^ The unit of study for the research will be the health maintenance organization (HMO); an organization the accepts in exchange for a fixed, advance capitation payment, contractual responsibility to assure the delivery of a stated range of health sevices to a voluntary enrolled population. With the current Federal resurgence of interest in the Health Maintenance Organization (HMO) as a major component in the health care system, attention must be directed at maximizing development of HMOs from the limited resources available. Increased skills are needed in both Federal and private evaluation of HMO feasibility in order to prevent resource investment and in projects that will fail while concurrently identifying potentially successful projects that will not be considered using current standards.^ The research considers 192 factors measuring contextual milieu (social, educational, economic, legal, demographic, health and technological factors). Through intercorrelation and principle components data reduction techniques this was reduced to 12 variables. Two measures of HMO performance were identified, they are (1) HMO status (operational or defunct), and (2) a principle components factor score considering eight measures of performance. The relationship between HMO context and performance was analysed using correlation and stepwise multiple regression methods. In each case it has been concluded that the external contextual variables are not predictive of success or failure of study Health Maintenance Organizations. This suggests that performance of an HMO may rely on internal organizational factors. These findings have policy implications as contextual measures are used as a major determinant in HMO feasibility analysis, and as a factor in the allocation of limited Federal funds. ^

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Con el objeto de ajustar un método de evaluación a campo para facilitar la selección de clones de ajo (Allium sativum L.) con resistencia a Penicillium allii, se realizó un ensayo replicado en el cual se midió la respuesta de tres clones experimentales a la infección, en dos épocas de plantación. Los tratamientos incluyeron combinaciones de presencia o ausencia de: a) desinfección de la "semilla", b) heridas artificiales en los bulbillos, c) inoculación artificial. Los bulbillos con la hoja envolvente se desinfectaron con una solución diluida de hipoclorito de sodio. La inoculación se realizó mediante la inmersión en una solución de 106 esporas•ml-1. Las heridas se realizaron con una lanceta (blood lancet). Los bulbillos se incubaron en cámara húmeda durante 24 horas a 20 °C, antes de plantación. Las variables respuestas computadas fueron las siguientes: número de plantas muertas, y vivas con síntomas y sin síntomas, a los 152 días de plantación en la primera época y 118 días en la segunda; número de bulbos por calibres y rendimiento a cosecha. La información obtenida se analizó a través de correspondencia simple, diferencia de proporciones y análisis paramétricos. Se detectaron mayores diferencias entre los tratamientos en la tasa de sobrevivencia y en la proporción de calibres comerciales en la época tardía. No se observaron diferencias (p < 0,05) del rendimiento en la plantación temprana. La herida fue determinante en el ingreso del patógeno. Los tratamientos quedaron limitados a un testigo: desinfectado, no inoculado y sin herida, y a un tratamiento: desinfectado, con inoculación y herida. Con respecto a la época, resultó conveniente la evaluación en plantaciones tardías porque se expresan mejor las diferencias entre los tratamientos.

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El objetivo consistió en evaluar el impacto que la actividad urbana ocasiona sobre la calidad del agua subterránea del área de Coronel Moldes. Se realizaron consideraciones geoquímicas en relación con el cálculo de línea de base hidroquímica, comparando con muestras extraídas del mismo acuífero en el entorno rural. Los indicadores de contaminación entre las distintas zonas rural y urbana (evaluados con la prueba t para muestras independientes y prueba no paramétrica de Mann- Whitney), indicaron que los valores de las componentes resultaban diferentes. Conductividad eléctrica, bicarbonatos, cloruros y nitratos mostraron en el área urbana valores medios superiores a aquellos del entorno rural que en general corresponden a los valores representativos del fondo natural regional de la calidad del agua subterránea. Se detectó en el área urbana un aumento en la dureza y Cl-/HCO3 - con importante contaminación microbiológica. Para evaluar el fondo regional se ajustaron los datos de los componentes iónicos analizados a las distribuciones teóricas (Normal, Laplace y f1). Se encontró que la distribución empírica presentaba un mejor acercamiento a f1 que a las otras dos, determinándose así como valor característico del fondo natural para cada ion, el estimador del parámetro de localización m* (combinación lineal entre la media y la mediana).

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Heavy metals (Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn and Zn) concentrations were determined in different tissues (muscle, kidney, liver, brain, gonads, heart and feathers) of Glaucous Gulls (Larus hyperboreus) from Bjornoya and Jan Mayen. The age and spatial dependent variations in heavy metals were quantified and interpreted in view of the three chemometric techniques, i.e. non-parametric Mann-Whitney U test, redundancy gradient analysis and detrended correspondence analysis. The Glaucous Gulls from Bjornoya contained significantly higher (p < 0.05) levels of Cd, Cu and Zn than those inhabited Jan Mayen. Adult birds were characterized by greater (p < 0.01) concentration of muscle, hepatic and renal heavy metals in comparison to chicks. Insignificantly higher slope constant Zn/Cd for the liver than for the kidney may reflect insignificant Cd exposure. Estimate of transfer factor (TF) allows us to assess variations in heavy metal concentrations during the individual development of Glaucous Gulls. It may be stated that there is a distinct increase of bioaccumulation of all the studied metals during subsequent stages of the bird life.

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Gran parte de los procesos microbianos que contribuyen a la fertilidad de los agroecosistemas y el ciclado de nutrientes ocurren en el suelo. Este ciclado de nutrientes depende críticamente de la actividad microbiológica de los suelos, la cual a su vez está mediada por la estructura y funcionamiento de la microbiota edáfica. En este contexto, el objetivo de este trabajo, fue determinar si la actividad microbiana puede ser buena indicadora de la intensidad de uso del suelo, analizando: 1- si las diferencias en la intensidad de uso del suelo se relacionan con diferencias en la actividad microbiológica estimada a través de la respiración edáfica y la actividad enzimática; y 2- las posibles relaciones entre estas variables microbiológicas y las variables físico-químicas. Entre 2008 y 2010 se realizaron muestreos trimestrales en campos de la provincia de Buenos Aires en suelos Argiudoles bajo diferentes usos: 1- Agricultura intensiva continua, 2- Agricultura reciente, y 3- Pastizales naturalizados. Tres sitios de muestreo se seleccionaron como réplicas para cada uso de suelo, con 5 muestras por fecha y réplica. La actividad microbiana se evaluó midiendo la respiración edáfica y la actividad de las enzimas nitrogenasas y se analizaron variables físico- químicas. Tanto las variables microbiológicas como las físico-químicas se analizaron mediante Kruskall-Wallis (P < 0,05). Se exploró la asociación entre las variables físico-químicas y microbiológicas aplicando el coeficiente de correlación no paramétrico (Spearman). Los distintos usos de un mismo suelo presentaron diferencias en la actividad microbiológica. La respiración edáfica fue significativamente mayor en los pastizales naturalizados que en los sistemas con agricultura. La actividad nitrogenasa resultó significativamente mayor en los pastizales naturalizados respecto de la agricultura continua y no se diferenció significativamente de la agricultura reciente. Las variables físico- químicas resultaron menos consistentes en detectar diferencias entre usos. Se detectaron correlaciones significativas entre la actividad microbiológica y algunas de las variables físico-químicas. Los resultados muestran que la actividad microbiológica puede resultar útil para diferenciar intensidades de usos de suelo.

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Chinese agricultural cooperatives, called Farmer's Professional Cooperatives (FPCs), are expected to become a major tool to facilitate agro-industrialization for small farmers through the diffusion of new technologies, the supply of high-quality agricultural inputs and the marketing of their products. This study compares FPC participants with vegetable-producing non-participants and grain farmers in vegetable-producing areas in rural China to investigate the treatment effect of participation in FPCs as well as implementation of vegetable cultivation. I adopt parametric and nonparametric approaches to precisely estimate the treatment effects. Estimated results indicate no significant difference between participants and non-participants of FPCs on agricultural net income in both parametric and non-parametric estimations. In contrast, the comparison between vegetable and grain farmers using propensity score matching (PSM) reveals that the treatment effect of vegetable cultivation is significantly positive for total and agricultural incomes, although vegetable cultivation involves more labor-intensive efforts. These results indicate that it is the implementation of vegetable cultivation rather than the participation in an FPC that enhances the economic welfare of farmers, due to the non-excludability of FPCs' services as well as the risks involved in vegetable cultivation.