Statistical analysis of extreme forest fires

Forest fires can cause extensive damage to natural resources and properties. They can also destroy wildlife habitat, affect the forest ecosystem and threaten human lives. In this paper extreme wildland fires are analysed using a point process model for extremes. The model based on a generalised Pareto distribution is used to model data on acres of wildland burnt by extreme fire in the US since 1825. A semi-parametric smoothing approach is adapted with maximum likelihood method to estimate model parameters.

Semi-Parametric Analysis of Extreme Forest Fires

Forest fires can cause extensive damage to natural resources and properties. They can also destroy wildlife habitat, affect the forest ecosystem and threaten human lives. In this paper incidences of extreme wildland fires are modelled by a point process model which incorporates time-trend. A model based on a generalised Pareto distribution is used to model data on acres of wildland burnt by extreme fire in the US since 1825. A semi-parametric smoothing approach, which is very useful in exploratory analysis of changes in extremes, is illustrated with the maximum likelihood method to estimate model parameters.

Impacts of wildlife on household food security and income in northeastern Tanzania

We evaluated the impacts of wildlife on household food security and income in three semi-arid villages adjacent to Lake Manyara National Park (LMNP) and Mkomazi Game Reserve (MGR) in Northeastern Tanzania. Survey data were collected using both household interviews and human-wildlife conflict related archive information from the village government offices. Crop destruction by wildlife influenced both household food security and cash income. Crop damage to households was, on average, 0.08 ton/annum, equivalent to two months household loss of food and reduced household cash income by 1.3%. A combination of measures is proposed as incentives for conservation. These include provision of economic incentives, soft loans to initiate non-farm (e.g., ecotourism, business enterprises) projects to ease dependency on natural resources, increasing of reserves buffer zones and fencing of reserves.

FARM-Africa South Africa Northern Cape land reform and advocacy programme 2004-2008: final evaluation

FARM-Africa South Africa has played a crucial and important role in filling the gap that existed after the return of land to communities by government in the Northern Cape. Their support to farmer communities during the post-settlement phase has been critical for making productive use of land. During 2004-2008, FARM-SA has worked in 20 community projects in the Northern Cape, benefiting 745 poor households.

Transregional linkages in the North-Eastern Atlantic - An ‘end-to-end ’ analysis of pelagic ecosystems

This review examines interregional linkages and gives an overview perspective on marine ecosystem functioning in the north-eastern Atlantic. It is based on three of the 'systems' considered by the European Network of Excellence for Ocean Ecosystems Analysis (EUR-OC EANS was established in 2004 under the European Framework VI funding programme to promote integration of marine ecological research within Europe), the Arctic and Nordic Seas, North Atlantic shelf seas and North Atlantic. The three systems share common open boundaries and the transport of water, heat, nutrients and particulates across these boundaries modifies local processes. Consistent with the EUR-OC EANS concept of 'end-to-end' analyses of marine food webs, the review takes an integrated approach linking ocean physics, lower trophic levels and working up the food web to top predators such as marine mammals. We begin with an overview of the regions focusing on the major physical patterns and their implications for the microbial community, phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish and top predators. Human-induced links between the regional systems are then considered and finally possible changes in the regional linkages over the next century are discussed. Because of the scale of potential impacts of climate change, this issue is considered in a separate section. The review demonstrates that the functioning of the ecosystems in each of the regions cannot be considered in isolation and the role of the atmosphere and ocean currents in linking the North Atlantic Ocean, North Atlantic shelf seas and the Arctic and Nordic Seas must be taken into account. Studying the North Atlantic and associated shelf seas as an integrated 'basin-scale' system will be a key challenge for the early twenty-first century. This requires a multinational approach that should lead to improved ecosystem-based approaches to conservation of natural resources, the maintenance of biodiversity, and a better understanding of the key role of the north-eastern Atlantic in the global carbon cycle.

Diversity of functional groups in the vegetation sandy seashore of the Grande, Anclitas and Caguamas Cays (Jardines de la Reina Archipelago, Cuba)

Sandy shores are known to be extreme ecosystems where the vegetation has evolved many morphological and physiological adaptations for its survival. With the aim of identify possible relationships between the vegetation´s functional diversity with abiotic factors and its corresponding quantification, we collected data on the abundance and richness of the sandy coast vegetation complex in Grande, Anclitas and Caguamas keys. Its flora is largely characterized by the dominance of hemicryptophytes and chamaephytes plants with nanophyllous leaves and displaying dispersal syndromes such as zoochory and anemochory. However, the functional groups´ richness, in the present study, varies from one key to another. Functional diversity is similar between the wet and dry seasons, and its spatial variation is influenced by the interplay of the set of abiotic factors herein studied.

Enhancing the Global Ocean Observing System to meet evidence based needs for the ecosystem-based management of coastal ecosystem services

Ecosystem-based approaches (EBAs) to managing anthropogenic pressures on ecosystems, adapting to changes in ecosystem states (indicators of ecosystem health), and mitigating the impacts of state changes on ecosystem services are needed for sustainable development. EBAs are informed by integrated ecosystem assessments (IEAs) that must be compiled and updated frequently for EBAs to be effective. Frequently updated IEAs depend on the sustained provision of data and information on pressures, state changes, and impacts of state changes on services. Nowhere is this truer than in the coastal zone, where people and ecosystem services are concentrated and where anthropogenic pressures converge. This study identifies the essential indicator variables required for the sustained provision of frequently updated IEAs, and offers an approach to establishing a global network of coastal observations within the framework of the Global Ocean Observing System. The need for and challenges of capacity-building are highlighted, and examples are given of current programmes that could contribute to the implementation of a coastal ocean observing system of systems on a global scale. This illustrates the need for new approaches to ocean governance that can achieve coordinated integration of existing programmes and technologies as a first step towards this goal.

Sediment contaminant surveillance in Milford Haven Waterway

Sediment contaminants were monitored in Milford Haven Waterway (MHW) since 1978 (hydrocarbons) and 1982 (metals), with the aim of providing surveillance of environmental quality in one of the UK’s busiest oil and gas ports. This aim is particularly important during and after large-scale investment in liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities. However, methods inevitably have changed over the years, compounding the difficulties of coordinating sampling and analytical programmes. After a review by the MHW Environmental Surveillance Group (MHWESG), sediment hydrocarbon chemistry was investigated in detail in 2010. Natural Resources Wales (NRW) contributed their MHW data for 2007 and 2012, collected to assess the condition of the Special Area of Conservation (SAC) designated under the European Union Habitats Directive. Datasets during 2007-2012 have thus been more comparable. The results showed conclusively that a MHW-wide peak in concentrations of sediment polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), metals and other contaminants occurred in late 2007. This was corroborated by independent annual monitoring at one centrally-located station with peaks in early 2008 and 2011. The spatial and temporal patterns of recovery from the 2007 peak, shown by MHW-wide surveys in 2010 and 2012, indicate several probable causes of contaminant trends, as follows: atmospheric deposition, catchment runoff, sediment resuspension from dredging, and construction of two LNG terminals and a power station. Adverse biological effects predictable in 2007 using international sediment quality guidelines, were independently tested by data from monitoring schemes of more than a decade duration in MHW (starfish, limpets), and in the wider SAC (grey seals). Although not proving cause and effect, many of these potential biological receptors showed a simultaneous negative response to the elevated 2007 contamination following intense dredging activity in 2006. Wetland bird counts were typically at a peak in the winter of 2005-2006 previous to peak dredging. In the following winter 2006-2007, shelduck in Pembroke River showed their lowest winter count, and spring 2007 was the largest ever drop in numbers of broods across MHW between successive breeding seasons. Wigeon counts in Pembroke River were again low in late 2012 after further dredging nearby. These results are strongly supported by PAH data reported previously from invertebrate bioaccumulation studies in MHW 2007-2010, themselves closely reflecting sediment

Intertwined ocean and climate: implications for international climate negotiations

The atmosphere and ocean are two components of the Earth system that are essential for life, yet humankind is altering both. Contemporary climate change is now a well-identified problem: anthropogenic causes, disturbance in extreme events patterns, gradual environmental changes, widespread impacts on life and natural resources, and multiple threats to human societies all around the world. But part of the problem remains largely unknown outside the scientific community: significant changes are also occurring in the ocean, threatening life and its sustainability on Earth. This Policy Brief explains the significance of these changes in the ocean. It is based on a scientific paper recently published in Science (Gattuso et al., 2015), which synthesizes recent and future changes to the ocean and its ecosystems, as well as to the goods and services they provide to humans. Two contrasting CO2 emission scenarios are considered: the high emissions scenario (also known as “business-as-usual” and as the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, RCP8.5) and a stringent emissions scenario (RCP2.6) consistent with the Copenhagen Accord1 of keeping mean global temperature increase below 2°C in 2100.

The Juniper formations in the Djurdjura (Algerie): an interpretation of the importance of their ecology, dynamics and syntoxonomy in the Kabylian cedar forest as a whole

The authors propose a new phyiosociologic interpretation of Juniperas comniunis subsp. hemisphaerica and Juniperus sabina shrublands in the Djurdjura. They make up two new associations: the Cynosuro balansae-Juniperetun, hemisphaericae and the Daphno oleoidis-Juniperetum sabinae, belonging to the new alliance Lonicero kabylicae-Juniperion hemisphaericae included in the order Querco Cedretalia atlanticae. The ecologic and biogeograpbic value of these communities is analized in a Westem-mediterrancan context as well as their dynamic importance. On this mountain, they correspond to ihe preforested level of cedar forests. For this reason, an attempt to inlerprel Kabylian cedar forests as a whole was made they belong to the new association Senecio perralderlani-Cedretum atlanticae. A diachronic evaluation of changes in native plant communities over a 30 year period is made, in particular as related to the creation of several local structures to protect natural resources.

Las infraestructuras de recarga y el despegue del vehículo eléctrico.

Este trabajo revisa la evolución y estado actual de la automoción eléctrica; analiza las ventajas ambientales, de eficiencia energética y de costes del motor eléctrico frente al de combustión interna; y presenta como limitaciones para el uso del vehículo eléctrico, el desarrollo actual de las baterías recargables y la lenta implantación de electrolineras. Con el objetivo de contribuir al desarrollo de una actividad económica respetuosa con el medio ambiente y basada en nuevas tecnologías, se proyecta, a partir de experiencias previas, una instalación de puntos de recarga para una ciudad de 50.000 habitantes con un parque de 100 vehículos eléctricos que dispone de dos plazas de recarga rápida (poste trifásico 400V CA), siete plazas de recarga lenta (postes monofásicos 230V CA) y de 50 módulos fotovoltaicos que producen diariamente la energía equivalente a la recarga lenta de un vehículo en los meses fríos y de dos en los meses cálidos.

Ecoturismo en comunidades rurales: análisis de los impactos negativos para la población local. Un estudio de caso

En los últimos años han aparecido nuevas formas de turismo más sostenibles, donde existen elementos relacionados con el descanso, el disfrute y la protección del medio ambiente o el conocimiento de la cultura local, a través de políticas que favorecen la sostenibilidad del destino. En este sentido, el ecoturismo se configura como una tipología turística que se desarrolla en contacto con la naturaleza. Este turismo ayuda a mejorar el desarrollo socioeconómico de las comunidades locales, a la vez, que fomenta la conservación de los recursos naturales y el respeto hacia el medio ambiente. Aunque, esta tipología de turismo también genera importantes impactos negativos. El objetivo principal de esta investigación es analizar los impactos socioeconómicos, culturales y medioambientales percibidos por el ecoturismo por parte de los residentes de comunidades rurales de República Dominicana. La técnica de recolección de datos utilizada ha consistido en un cuestionario. Entre las principales conclusiones, cabe destacar que actualmente no se perciben impactos negativos, pero si hay una serie de elementos que hay que ir considerando, con la finalidad de que no se conviertan en un impacto a corto plazo para la comunidad rural.

'Robes on Tight Ropes: The Judicialisation of Politics in Nigeria'

This account of judicialised politics in the Nigerian transition experience examines the regulation of the judiciary of the political space, through the resolution of intergovernmental contestations in a dysfunctional federation. It analyses the judicialisation of elite power disputes which have resonance for due process and the rule of law in particular and governance in general. A study of the role of the judiciary in stabilising the country, itself a pivot in the West Africa region in particular and Africa in general, is important. This is especially in view of its classification as a ‘weak state,’ despite its enormous human and natural resources. The analyses here suggest the Supreme Court has taken a strategic position in the task of democratic institutional building and the reinstitution of the rule of law in the country. This strategic measure has received the acclaim of the public. However, the account also discloses that the judiciary, in the course of its numerous interventions, has been drawn into overly political disputes that overreach its jurisprudential preferences. Of even more significance, it demonstrates that the judiciary is itself still challenged by institutional dysfunctions constituting part of the legacies of the authoritarian era. The situation leads back to the need for closer scrutiny of the judicial function in transitional societies.

COMMUNICATION AND GREEK ENVIRONMENTAL ORGANISATIONS: MEANS OF COMMUNICATION AND INFLUENCING FACTORS

A basic operational objective of any environmental organisation is to raise awareness among the public on issues of environmental protection, through the dissemination of knowledge and experience to local communities, so that the conservation and ecologically sound management of natural resources can acquire a local dimension. This can be achieved either through interventions directed at the State, mainly in relation to its legislative function, or by encouraging citizens to change or improve their attitude regarding environmental matters. In order to ensure a successful outcome and the efficient functioning of any organisation, a feeling of mutual trust and understanding should exist between the latter and its various audiences, i.e. the State and society. A basic ingredient of this balance between the organisation, the broader public and the State is effective communication and activity planning. As a way of contributing to the exploration of this process, this paper describes the means of communication used by Greek environmental organisations, and presents, through a non-linear model, the differentiation amongst them, in conjunction with aspects of the profile of those running each organisation and other indicators, such as the years in operation and the membership figures in each sampled organisation. The paper concludes by arguing that the diversification of communication means is related to the head person's years as a member of the organisation and the extent of its total membership. Another important finding is that the more the involvement in activities within the organisation, the less differentiation we observe amongst the employed means of communication.

Genetic differentiation of Euterpe edulis Mart. populations estimated by AFLP analysis

Heart-of-palm (Euterpe edulis Mart.) is a wild palm with a wide distribution throughout the Atlantic Rainforest. Populations of E. edulis represent important renewable natural resources but are currently under threat from predatory exploitation. Furthermore, because the species is indigenous to the Atlantic Rainforest, which is located in the most economically developed and populated region of Brazil, social and economic pressures have devastated heart-of-palm forests. In order to estimate the partitioning of genetic variation of endangered E. edulis populations, 429 AFLP markers were used to analyse 150 plants representing 11 populations of the species distribution range. Analysis of the genetic structure of populations carried out using analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) revealed moderate genetic variation within populations (57.4%). Genetic differentiation between populations (F-ST = 0.426) was positively correlated with geographical distance. These results could be explained by the historical fragmentation of the Atlantic coastal region, together with the life cycle and mating system The data obtained in this work should have important implications for conservation and future breeding programmes of E. edulis.