Empiricism in ecological economics: a perspective from complex systems theory

Economies are open complex adaptive systems far from thermodynamic equilibrium, and neo-classical environmental economics seems not to be the best way to describe the behaviour of such systems. Standard econometric analysis (i.e. time series) takes a deterministic and predictive approach, which encourages the search for predictive policy to ‘correct’ environmental problems. Rather, it seems that, because of the characteristics of economic systems, an ex-post analysis is more appropriate, which describes the emergence of such systems’ properties, and which sees policy as a social steering mechanism. With this background, some of the recent empirical work published in the field of ecological economics that follows the approach defended here is presented. Finally, the conclusion is reached that a predictive use of econometrics (i.e. time series analysis) in ecological economics should be limited to cases in which uncertainty decreases, which is not the normal situation when analysing the evolution of economic systems. However, that does not mean we should not use empirical analysis. On the contrary, this is to be encouraged, but from a structural and ex-post point of view.

Helical tomotherapy (HT) for the treatment of anal canal cancer: preliminary clinical results, and dosimetric comparison between HT and intensity-modulated or 3D conformal radiotherapy

Background: To report a single-center experience in 19 patients (pts) with anal canal cancer treated with helical tomotherapy (HT) and concurrent chemotherapy, and compare the dosimetric results with fixed-field intensitymodulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and 3D conformal radiotherapy (3D RT). Materials and Methods: Between 2007 and 2008, 19 consecutive pts were treated with HT and concurrent CT for anal canal cancer. Median age was 59 years (range, 38−83), and female/male ratio was 14/5. The majority of the pts had T2 or T3 tumours (68.4%), and 52.6% had positive lymph nodes. In all 19 pts, pelvic and inguinal nodes, and tumour irradiation was given using HT upto a median dose of 36 Gy (1.8 Gy/fr) followed by a 1-week gap. A boost dose of 23.4 Gy (1.8 Gy/fr) was delivered to the tumour and involved nodes using 3DRT (n = 12), HT (n = 6), or IMRT (n = 1). Simultaneous integrated boost was used in none of the pts. All but one patient with a T1N0 tumour received concomitant mitomycin/5- fluorouracil (n = 12) or mitomycin/capecitabin (n = 7) CT. Toxicity was scored according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (NCICTCAE v3.0). HT plans and treatments were generated using Tomotherapy, Inc., software and hardware; and 3D or IMRT boost plans with the CMS treatment planning system (TPS), using 6−18 MV photons from a Siemens Primus accelerator. For dosimetric comparison, computed tomography data sets of 10 pts were imported into the TPS, and 3D and 5-field step-andshoot IMRT plans were generated for each case. Plans were optimized with the aim of assessing organs at risk (OAR) and healthy-tissue sparing while enforcing highly conformal target coverage, and evaluated by dose-volume histograms (DVH) of planning target volumes (PTV) and OAR. Results: With a median follow-up of 13 months (range, 3−18), all pts are alive and well; except one patient developing local recurrence at 12 months. No patient developed grade 3 or more acute toxicity. No unplanned treatment interruption was necessary because of toxicity. With 360-degree-of-freedom beam projection, HT showed an advantage over 3D or IMRT plans in terms of dose conformity around the PTV, and dose gradients were steeper outside the PTV, resulting in reduced doses to OARs. Using HT, acute toxicity was acceptable, and seemed to be better than historical standards. Conclusion: We conclude that HT combined with concurrent chemotherapy for anal canal cancer is effective and tolerable. Compared to 3DRT or 5-field IMRT, there is better conformity around the PTV, and OAR sparing.

3-d residual eddy current field characterisation: applied to diffusion weighted magnetic resonance imaging.

Clinical use of the Stejskal-Tanner diffusion weighted images is hampered by the geometric distortions that result from the large residual 3-D eddy current field induced. In this work, we aimed to predict, using linear response theory, the residual 3-D eddy current field required for geometric distortion correction based on phantom eddy current field measurements. The predicted 3-D eddy current field induced by the diffusion-weighting gradients was able to reduce the root mean square error of the residual eddy current field to ~1 Hz. The model's performance was tested on diffusion weighted images of four normal volunteers, following distortion correction, the quality of the Stejskal-Tanner diffusion-weighted images was found to have comparable quality to image registration based corrections (FSL) at low b-values. Unlike registration techniques the correction was not hindered by low SNR at high b-values, and results in improved image quality relative to FSL. Characterization of the 3-D eddy current field with linear response theory enables the prediction of the 3-D eddy current field required to correct eddy current induced geometric distortions for a wide range of clinical and high b-value protocols.

Advances in Sequence Analysis: Theory, Methods, Applications

This book gives a general view of sequence analysis, the statistical study of successions of states or events. It includes innovative contributions on life course studies, transitions into and out of employment, contemporaneous and historical careers, and political trajectories. The approach presented in this book is now central to the life-course perspective and the study of social processes more generally. This volume promotes the dialogue between approaches to sequence analysis that developed separately, within traditions contrasted in space and disciplines. It includes the latest developments in sequential concepts, coding, atypical datasets and time patterns, optimal matching and alternative algorithms, survey optimization, and visualization. Field studies include original sequential material related to parenting in 19th-century Belgium, higher education and work in Finland and Italy, family formation before and after German reunification, French Jews persecuted in occupied France, long-term trends in electoral participation, and regime democratization. Overall the book reassesses the classical uses of sequences and it promotes new ways of collecting, formatting, representing and processing them. The introduction provides basic sequential concepts and tools, as well as a history of the method. Chapters are presented in a way that is both accessible to the beginner and informative to the expert.

Ab initio absorption spectrum of NiO combining molecular dynamics with the embedded cluster approach in a discrete reaction field

We developed a procedure that combines three complementary computational methodologies to improve the theoretical description of the electronic structure of nickel oxide. The starting point is a Car-Parrinello molecular dynamics simulation to incorporate vibrorotational degrees of freedom into the material model. By means ofcomplete active space self-consistent field second-order perturbation theory (CASPT2) calculations on embedded clusters extracted from the resulting trajectory, we describe localized spectroscopic phenomena on NiO with an efficient treatment of electron correlation. The inclusion of thermal motion into the theoretical description allowsus to study electronic transitions that, otherwise, would be dipole forbidden in the ideal structure and results in a natural reproduction of the band broadening. Moreover, we improved the embedded cluster model by incorporating self-consistently at the complete active space self-consistent field (CASSCF) level a discrete (or direct) reaction field (DRF) in the cluster surroundings. The DRF approach offers an efficient treatment ofelectric response effects of the crystalline embedding to the electronic transitions localized in the cluster. We offer accurate theoretical estimates of the absorption spectrum and the density of states around the Fermi level of NiO, and a comprehensive explanation of the source of the broadening and the relaxation of the charge transferstates due to the adaptation of the environment

Determination of vibrational polarizabilities and hyperpolarizabilities using field-induced coordinates

An analytical set of field-induced coordinates is defined and is used to show that the vibrational degrees of freedom required to completely describe nuclear relaxation polarizabilities and hyperpolarizabilities is reduced from 3N-6 to a relatively small number. As this number does not depend upon the size of the molecule, the process provides computational advantages. A method is provided to separate anharmonic contributions from harmonic contributions as well as effective mechanical from electrical anharmonicity. The procedures are illustrated by Hartree-Fock calculations, indicating that anharmonicity can be very important

A quantum molecular similarity analysis of changes in molecular electron density caused by basis set flotation and electric field application

Quantum molecular similarity (QMS) techniques are used to assess the response of the electron density of various small molecules to application of a static, uniform electric field. Likewise, QMS is used to analyze the changes in electron density generated by the process of floating a basis set. The results obtained show an interrelation between the floating process, the optimum geometry, and the presence of an external field. Cases involving the Le Chatelier principle are discussed, and an insight on the changes of bond critical point properties, self-similarity values and density differences is performed

Worst-case bounds for the logarithmic loss of predictors

We investigate on-line prediction of individual sequences. Given a class of predictors, the goal is to predict as well as the best predictor in the class, where the loss is measured by the self information (logarithmic) loss function. The excess loss (regret) is closely related to the redundancy of the associated lossless universal code. Using Shtarkov's theorem and tools from empirical process theory, we prove a general upper bound on the best possible (minimax) regret. The bound depends on certain metric properties of the class of predictors. We apply the bound to both parametric and nonparametric classes ofpredictors. Finally, we point out a suboptimal behavior of the popular Bayesian weighted average algorithm.

A theory of reference-dependent behavior

Extensive field and experimental evidence in a variety of environments show that behavior depends on a reference point. This paper provides an axiomatic characterization of this dependence. We proceed by imposing gradually more structure on both choice correspondences and preference relations, requiring increasingly higher levels of rationality, and freeing the decision-maker from certain types of inconsistencies. The appropriate degree of behavioral structure will depend on the phenomenon that is to be modeled. Lastly, we provide two applications of our work: one to model the status-quo bias, and another to model addictive behavior.

Inclusive fitness theory and eusociality.

Arising from M. A. Nowak, C. E. Tarnita & E. O. Wilson 466, 1057-1062 (2010); Nowak et al. reply. Nowak et al. argue that inclusive fitness theory has been of little value in explaining the natural world, and that it has led to negligible progress in explaining the evolution of eusociality. However, we believe that their arguments are based upon a misunderstanding of evolutionary theory and a misrepresentation of the empirical literature. We will focus our comments on three general issues.

Vertically coupled quantum dots in the local spin-density functional theory

We have investigated the structure of double quantum dots vertically coupled at zero magnetic field within local-spin-density functional theory. The dots are identical and have a finite width, and the whole system is axially symmetric. We first discuss the effect of thickness on the addition spectrum of one single dot. Next we describe the structure of coupled dots as a function of the interdot distance for different electron numbers. Addition spectra, Hund's rule, and molecular-type configurations are discussed. It is shown that self-interaction corrections to the density-functional results do not play a very important role in the calculated addition spectra

Diluted three-dimensional random field Ising model at zero temperature with metastable dynamics.

The influence of vacancy concentration on the behavior of the three-dimensional random field Ising model with metastable dynamics is studied. We have focused our analysis on the number of spanning avalanches which allows us a clear determination of the critical line where the hysteresis loops change from continuous to discontinuous. By a detailed finite-size scaling analysis we determine the phase diagram and numerically estimate the critical exponents along the whole critical line. Finally, we discuss the origin of the curvature of the critical line at high vacancy concentration.

Vertically coupled double quantum rings at zero magnetic field

Within local-spin-density functional theory, we have investigated the ¿dissociation¿ of few-electron circular vertical semiconductor double quantum ring artificial molecules at zero magnetic field as a function of interring distance. In a first step, the molecules are constituted by two identical quantum rings. When the rings are quantum mechanically strongly coupled, the electronic states are substantially delocalized, and the addition energy spectra of the artificial molecule resemble those of a single quantum ring in the few-electron limit. When the rings are quantum mechanically weakly coupled, the electronic states in the molecule are substantially localized in one ring or the other, although the rings can be electrostatically coupled. The effect of a slight mismatch introduced in the molecules from nominally identical quantum wells, or from changes in the inner radius of the constituent rings, induces localization by offsetting the energy levels in the quantum rings. This plays a crucial role in the appearance of the addition spectra as a function of coupling strength particularly in the weak coupling limit.