Mortality of Migratory Birds from Marine Commercial Fisheries and Offshore Oil and Gas Production in Canada

There is an imminent need for conservation and best-practice management efforts in marine ecosystems where global-scale declines in the biodiversity and biomass of large vertebrate predators are increasing and marine communities are being altered. We examine two marine-based industries that incidentally take migratory birds in Canada: (1) commercial fisheries, through bycatch, and (2) offshore oil and gas exploration, development, and production. We summarize information from the scientific literature and technical reports and also present new information from recently analyzed data to assess the magnitude and scope of mortality. Fisheries bycatch was responsible for the highest levels of incidental take of migratory bird species; estimated combined take in the longline, gillnet, and bottom otter trawl fisheries within the Atlantic, including the Gulf of St. Lawrence, and Pacific regions was 2679 to 45,586 birds per year. For the offshore oil and gas sector, mortality estimates ranged from 188 to 4494 deaths per year due to the discharge of produced waters resulting in oil sheens and collisions with platforms and vessels; however these estimates for the oil and gas sector are based on many untested assumptions. In spite of the uncertainties, we feel levels of mortality from these two industries are unlikely to affect the marine bird community in Canada, but some effects on local populations from bycatch are likely. Further research and monitoring will be required to: (1) better estimate fisheries-related mortality for vulnerable species and populations that may be impacted by local fisheries, (2) determine the effects of oil sheens from produced waters, and attraction to platforms and associated mortality from collisions, sheens, and flaring, so that better estimates of mortality from the offshore oil and gas sector can be obtained, and (3) determine impacts associated with accidental spills, which are not included in our current assessment. With a better understanding of the direct mortality of marine birds from industry, appropriate mitigation and management actions can be implemented. Cooperation from industry for data collection, research to fill knowledge gaps, and implementation of mitigation approaches will all be needed to conserve marine birds in Canada.

Flight Paths of Migrating Golden Eagles and the Risk Associated with Wind Energy Development in the Rocky Mountains

In recent years, the eastern foothills of the Rocky Mountains in northeastern British Columbia have received interest as a site of industrial wind energy development but, simultaneously, have been the subject of concern about wind development coinciding with a known migratory corridor of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos). We tracked and quantified eagle flights that crossed or followed ridgelines slated for one such wind development. We found that hourly passage rates during fall migration peaked at midday and increased by 17% with each 1 km/h increase in wind speed and by 11% with each 1°C increase in temperature. The propensity to cross the ridge tops where turbines would be situated differed between age classes, with juvenile eagles almost twice as likely to traverse the ridge-top area as adults or subadults. During fall migration, Golden Eagles were more likely to cross ridges at turbine heights (risk zone, < 150 m above ground) under headwinds or tailwinds, but this likelihood decreased with increasing temperature. Conversely, during spring migration, eagles were more likely to move within the ridge-top area under eastern crosswinds. Identifying Golden Eagle flight routes and altitudes with respect to major weather systems and local topography in the Rockies may help identify scenarios in which the potential for collisions is greatest at this and other installations.

Density dependence and phenological mismatch: consequences for growth and survival of sub-arctic nesting Canada Geese

The extent to which species are plastic in the timing of their reproductive events relative to phenology suggests how climate change might affect their demography. An ecological mismatch between the timing of hatch for avian species and the peak availability in quality and quantity of forage for rapidly growing offspring might ultimately affect recruitment to the breeding population unless individuals can adjust the timing of breeding to adapt to changing phenology. We evaluated effects of goose density, hatch timing relative to forage plant phenology, and weather indices on annual growth of pre-fledging Canada geese (Branta canadensis) from 1993-2010 at Akimiski Island, Nunavut. We found effects of both density and hatch timing relative to forage plant phenology; the earlier that eggs hatched relative to forage plant phenology, the larger the mean gosling size near fledging. Goslings were smallest in years when hatch was latest relative to forage plant phenology, and when local abundance of breeding adults was highest. We found no evidence for a trend in relative hatch timing, but it was apparent that in early springs, Canada geese tended to hatch later relative to vegetation phenology, suggesting that geese were not always able to adjust the timing of nesting as rapidly as vegetation phenology was advanced. Analyses using forage biomass information revealed a positive relationship between gosling size and per capita biomass availability, suggesting a causal mechanism for the density effect. The effects of weather parameters explained additional variation in mean annual gosling size, although total June and July rainfall had a small additive effect on gosling size. Modelling of annual first-year survival probability using mean annual gosling size as an annual covariate revealed a positive relationship, suggesting that reduced gosling growth negatively impacts recruitment.

Performance and prediction: Bayesian modelling of fallible choice in chess

Evaluating agents in decision-making applications requires assessing their skill and predicting their behaviour. Both are well developed in Poker-like situations, but less so in more complex game and model domains. This paper addresses both tasks by using Bayesian inference in a benchmark space of reference agents. The concepts are explained and demonstrated using the game of chess but the model applies generically to any domain with quantifiable options and fallible choice. Demonstration applications address questions frequently asked by the chess community regarding the stability of the rating scale, the comparison of players of different eras and/or leagues, and controversial incidents possibly involving fraud. The last include alleged under-performance, fabrication of tournament results, and clandestine use of computer advice during competition. Beyond the model world of games, the aim is to improve fallible human performance in complex, high-value tasks.

Deepest Chess Win Revisited

An examination of the deepest win in KRNKNN in the context of Ken Thompson's results.

Use of remote sensing to measure change in the extent of habitat for the critically endangered Jerdon's Courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus in India

Jerdon's Courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus is one of the most endangered and least understood birds in the world. It is endemic to scrub habitats in southeast India which have been lost and degraded because of human land use. We used satellite images from 1991 and 2000 and two methods for classifying land cover to quantify loss of Jerdon's Courser habitat. The scrub habitats on which this species depends decreased in area by 11-15% during this short period (9.6 years), predominantly as a result of scrub clearance and conversion to agriculture. The remaining scrub patches were smaller and further from human settlements in 2000 than in 1991, implying that much of the scrub loss had occurred close to human population centres. We discuss the implications of our results for the conservation of Jerdon's Courser and the use of remote sensing methods in conservation.

Effect of molecule branching and glycosidic linkage on the degradation of polydextrose by gut microbiota.

Polydextrose is a randomly linked complex glucose oligomer that is widely used as a sugar replacer, bulking agent, dietary fiber and prebiotic. Polydextrose is poorly utilized by the host and, during gastrointestinal transit, it is slowly degraded by intestinal microbes, although it is not known which parts of the complex molecule are preferred by the microbes. The microbial degradation of polydextrose was assessed by using a simulated model of colonic fermentation. The degradation products and their glycosidic linkages were measured by combined gas chromatography and mass spectrometry, and compared to those of intact polydextrose. Fermentation resulted in an increase in the relative abundance of non-branched molecules with a concomitant decrease in single-branched glucose molecules and a reduced total number of branching points. A detailed analysis showed a preponderance of 1,6 pyranose linkages. The results of this study demonstrate how intestinal microbes selectively degrade polydextrose, and provide an insight into the preferences of gut microbiota in the presence of different glycosidic linkages.

Constructing Melchior Lorichs's 'Panorama of Constantinople'

In Constructing Melchior Lorichs's Panorama of Constantinople, Nigel Westbrook, Kenneth Rainsbury Dark, and Rene Van Meeuwen propose that Melchior Lorichs's 1559 Panorama of Constantinople was created by using a viewing grid. The panorama is thus a reliable graphic source for the lost or since-altered Ottoman and Byzantine buildings of the city. The panorama appears to lie outside the conventional symbolic mode of topographical depiction common for its period and constitutes a rare "scientific" record of an encounter of a perspicacious observer with a vast subject. The drawing combines elements of allegory with extensive empirical observation. Several unknown structures, shown on the drawing, have been located in relation to the present-day topography of Istanbul, as a test-case for further research.

Realism and politics in alienated space: Trevor Griffiths's plays of the 1970s in the television studio

The television studio play is often perceived as a somewhat compromised, problematic mode in which spatial and technological constraints inhibit the signifying and aesthetic capacity of dramatic texts. Leah Panos examines the function of the studio in the 1970s television dramas of socialist playwright Trevor Griffiths, and argues that the established verbal and visual conventions of the studio play, in its confined and ‘alienated’ space, connect with and reinforce various aspects of Griffiths's particular approach and agenda. As well as suggesting ways in which the idealist, theoretical focus of the intellectual New Left is reflexively replicated within the studio, Panos explores how the ‘intimate’ visual language of the television studio allows Griffiths to create a ‘humanized’ Marxist discourse through which he examines dialectically his dramatic characters' experiences, ideas, morality, and political objectives. Leah Panos recently completed her doctoral thesis, ‘Dramatizing New Left Contradictions: Television Texts of Ken Loach, Jim Allen, and Trevor Griffiths’, at the University of Reading and is now a Postdoctoral Researcher on the AHRC funded project, ‘Spaces of Television: Production, Site and Style’, which runs from July 2010 to March 2014.