Interannual variations of Indian summer monsoon in a GCM: External conditions versus internal feedbacks

The potential predictability of the Indian summer monsoon due to slowly varying sea surface temperature (SST) forcing is examined. Factors responsible for limiting the predictability are also investigated. Three multiyear simulations with the R30 version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are carried out for this purpose, The mean monsoon simulated by this model is realistic including the mean summer precipitation over the Indian continent. The interannual variability of the large-scale component of the monsoon such as the "monsoon shear index" and its teleconnection with Pacific SST is well simulated by the model in a 15-yr integration with observed SST as boundary condition. On regional scales, the skill in simulating the interannual variability of precipitation over the Indian continent by the model is rather modest and its simultaneous correlation with eastern Pacific SST is negative but poor as observed. The poor predictability of precipitation over the Indian region in the model is related to the fact that contribution to the interannual variability over this region due to slow SST variations [El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related] is comparable to those due to regional-scale fluctuations unrelated to ENSO SST. The physical mechanism through which ENSO SST tend to produce reduction in precipitation over the Indian continent is also elucidated. A measure of internal variability of the model summer monsoon is obtained from a 20-yr integration of the same model with fixed annual cycle SST as boundary conditions but with predicted soil moisture and snow cover. A comparison of summer monsoon indexes between this run and the observed SST run shows that the internal oscillations can account for a large fraction of the simulated monsoon variability. The regional-scale oscillations in the observed SST run seems to arise from these internal oscillations. It is discovered that most of the interannual internal variability is due to an internal quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the model atmosphere. Such a QBO is also found in the author's third 18-yr simulation in which fixed annual cycle of SST as well as soil moisture and snow cover are prescribed. This shows that the model QBO is not due to land-surface-atmosphere interaction. It is proposed that the model QBO arises due to an interaction between nonlinear intraseasonal oscillations and the annual cycle. Spatial structure of the QBO and its role in limiting the predictability of the Indian summer monsoon is discussed.

On an exact populationary model of genetic algorithms

Genetic algorithms (GAs) are search methods that are being employed in a multitude of applications with extremely large search spaces. Recently, there has been considerable interest among GA researchers in understanding and formalizing the working of GAs. In an earlier paper, we have introduced the notion of binomially distributed populations as the central idea behind an exact ''populationary'' model of the large-population dynamics of the GA operators for objective functions called ''functions of unitation.'' In this paper, we extend this populationary model of GA dynamics to a more general class of objective functions called functions of unitation variables. We generalize the notion of a binomially distributed population to a generalized binomially distributed population (GBDP). We show that the effects of selection, crossover, and mutation can be exactly modelled after decomposing the population into GBDPs. Based on this generalized model, we have implemented a GA simulator for functions of two unitation variables-GASIM 2, and the distributions predicted by GASIM 2 match with those obtained from actual GA runs. The generalized populationary model of GA dynamics not only presents a novel and natural way of interpreting the workings of GAs with large populations, but it also provides for an efficient implementation of the model as a GA simulator. (C) Elsevier Science Inc. 1997.

Predictive uncertainty of chaotic daily streamflow using ensemble wavelet networks approach

Perfect or even mediocre weather predictions over a long period are almost impossible because of the ultimate growth of a small initial error into a significant one. Even though the sensitivity of initial conditions limits the predictability in chaotic systems, an ensemble of prediction from different possible initial conditions and also a prediction algorithm capable of resolving the fine structure of the chaotic attractor can reduce the prediction uncertainty to some extent. All of the traditional chaotic prediction methods in hydrology are based on single optimum initial condition local models which can model the sudden divergence of the trajectories with different local functions. Conceptually, global models are ineffective in modeling the highly unstable structure of the chaotic attractor. This paper focuses on an ensemble prediction approach by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of chaotic parameters, i.e., embedding dimension and delay time to quantify the uncertainty in initial conditions. The ensemble approach is implemented through a local learning wavelet network model with a global feed-forward neural network structure for the phase space prediction of chaotic streamflow series. Quantification of uncertainties in future predictions are done by creating an ensemble of predictions with wavelet network using a range of plausible embedding dimensions and delay times. The ensemble approach is proved to be 50% more efficient than the single prediction for both local approximation and wavelet network approaches. The wavelet network approach has proved to be 30%-50% more superior to the local approximation approach. Compared to the traditional local approximation approach with single initial condition, the total predictive uncertainty in the streamflow is reduced when modeled with ensemble wavelet networks for different lead times. Localization property of wavelets, utilizing different dilation and translation parameters, helps in capturing most of the statistical properties of the observed data. The need for taking into account all plausible initial conditions and also bringing together the characteristics of both local and global approaches to model the unstable yet ordered chaotic attractor of a hydrologic series is clearly demonstrated.

Aerosol radiative forcing due to enhanced black carbon at an urban site in India

[1] During a comprehensive aerosol field campaign, simultaneous measurements were made of aerosol spectral optical depths, black carbon mass concentration (M-b), total (M-t) and size segregated aerosol mass concentrations over an urban continental location, Bangalore (13 degreesN, 77 degreesE, 960 m msl), in India. Large amounts of BC were observed; both in absolute terms and fraction of total mass (similar to11%) and submicron mass (similar to23%) implying a significantly low single scatter albedo. The aerosol visible optical depth (tau(p)) was in the range 0.24 to 0.45. Estimated surface forcing is as high as -23 W m(-2) and top of the atmosphere (TOA) forcing is +5 Wm(-2) during relatively cleaner periods (tau(p) similar to 0.24). The net atmospheric absorption translates to an atmospheric heating of similar to0.8 K day(-1) for cleaner periods and similar to1.5 K day(-1) for less cleaner periods (tau(p) similar to 0.45). Our observations raise several issues, which may have impacts to regional climate and monsoon.

Enhanced aerosol loading over Arabian Sea during the pre-monsoon season: Natural or anthropogenic?

[1] Recent experiments conducted over the oceanic regions adjacent to the Indian sub continent have revealed the presence of anthropogenic aerosol haze during January to March. It has been suggested that the major source of this aerosol is South and Southeast Asia. Here we show from long term, multi-station and ship borne observations that aerosols transported from regions northwest of Indian subcontinent especially Arabian and Saharan regions (mostly natural dust) along with the locally produced sea-salt aerosols by sea-surface winds constitute a more significant source of aerosols during April-May period. The radiative forcing due to Arabian/Saharan aerosols (mostly natural) during April May period is comparable and often exceed (as much as 1.5 times) the forcing due to anthropogenic aerosols during January to March period. The presence of dust load over the Arabian Sea can influence the temperature profile and radiative balance in this region.

Longwave radiative forcing of Indian Ocean tropospheric aerosol

A spectrally resolved discrete-ordinates radiative transfer model is used to calculate the change in downwelling surface and top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) outgoing longwave (3.9-500 mum) radiative fluxes induced by tropospheric aerosols of the type observed over the Indian Ocean during the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX). Both external and internal aerosol mixtures were considered. Throughout the longwave, the aerosol volume extinction depends more strongly on relative humidity than in most of the shortwave (0.28-3.9 mum), implying that particle growth factors and realistic relative humidity profiles must be taken into account when modeling the longwave radiative effects of aerosols. A typical boundary layer aerosol loading, with a 500-nm optical depth of 0.3, will increase the downwelling longwave flux at the surface by 7.7 W m(-2) over the clean air case while decreasing the outgoing longwave radiation by 1.3 W m(-2). A more vertically extended aerosol loading, exhibiting a high opacity plume between 2 and 3 km above the surface and having a typical 500-nm optical depth of 0.7, will increase the downwelling longwave flux at the surface by 11.2 W m(-2) over the clean air case while decreasing the outgoing longwave radiation by 2.7 W m(-2). For a vertically extended aerosol profile, approximately 30% of the TOA radiative forcing comes from sea salt and approximately 60% of the forcing comes from the combination of sea salt and dust. The remaining forcing is from anthropogenic constituents. These results are for the external mixture. For an internal mixture, TOA longwave forcings can be up to a factor of two larger. Therefore, to complete our understanding of this region's longwave aerosol radiative properties, more detailed information is needed about aerosol mixing states. These longwave radiative effects partially offset the large shortwave aerosol radiative forcing and should be included in regional and global climate modeling simulations.

Spring Warming of the Eastern Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal from Buoy Data

Observations from moored buoys during spring of 1998-2000 suggest that the warming of the mixed layer (similar to20 m deep) of the north Indian Ocean warm pool is a response to net surface heat flux Q(net) (similar to100 W m(-2)) minus penetrative solar radiation Q(pen) (similar to45 W m(-2)). A residual cooling due to vertical mixing and advection is indirectly estimated to be about 25 W m(-2). The rate of warming due to typical values of Q(net) minus Q(pen) is not very sensitive to the depth of the mixed layer if it lies between 10 m and 30 m.

Numerical Modelling of the Observed Diurnal Cycle of Indian Monsoon Rainfall

We have analysed the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the Indian region (10S-35N, 60E-100E) using both satellite and in-situ data, and found many interesting features associated with this fundamental, yet under-explored, mode of variability. Since there is a distinct and strong diurnal mode of variability associated with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, we evaluate the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to simulate the observed diurnal rainfall characteristics. The model (at 54km grid-spacing) is integrated for the month of July, 2006, since this period was particularly favourable for the study of diurnal cycle. We first evaluate the sensitivity of the model to the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST), by using two different SST datasets, namely, Final Analyses (FNL) and Real-time Global (RTG). It was found that with RTG SST the rainfall simulation over central India (CI) was significantly better than that with FNL. On the other hand, over the Bay of Bengal (BoB), rainfall simulated with FNL was marginally better than with RTG. However, the overall performance of RTG SST was found to be better than FNL, and hence it was used for further model simulations. Next, we investigated the role of the convective parameterization scheme on the simulation of diurnal cycle of rainfall. We found that the Kain-Fritsch (KF) scheme performs significantly better than Betts-Miller-Janjić (BMJ) and Grell-Devenyi schemes. We also studied the impact of other physical parameterizations, namely, microphysics, boundary layer, land surface, and the radiation parameterization, on the simulation of diurnal cycle of rainfall, and identified the “best” model configuration. We used this configuration of the “best” model to perform a sensitivity study on the role of various convective components used in the KF scheme. In particular, we studied the role of convective downdrafts, convective timescale, and feedback fraction, on the simulated diurnal cycle of rainfall. The “best” model simulations, in general, show a good agreement with observations. Specifically, (i) Over CI, the simulated diurnal rainfall peak is at 1430 IST, in comparison to the observed 1430-1730 IST peak; (ii) Over Western Ghats and Burmese mountains, the model simulates a diurnal rainfall peak at 1430 IST, as opposed to the observed peak of 1430-1730 IST; (iii) Over Sumatra, both model and observations show a diurnal peak at 1730 IST; (iv) The observed southward propagating diurnal rainfall bands over BoB are weakly simulated by WRF. Besides the diurnal cycle of rainfall, the mean spatial pattern of total rainfall and its partitioning between the convective and stratiform components, are also well simulated. The “best” model configuration was used to conduct two nested simulations with one-way, three-level nesting (54-18-6km) over CI and BoB. While, the 54km and 18km simulations were conducted for the whole of July, 2006, the 6km simulation was carried out for the period 18 - 24 July, 2006. The results of our coarse- and fine-scale numerical simulations of the diurnal cycle of monsoon rainfall will be discussed.

Geomagnetic Storms Over India: A Close Look at Historic Space Weather at Mumbai

The swirling colors of aurorae, familiar to many in polar communities, can occasionally be seen at middle latitudes in locations such as southern Canada and central Europe. But in rare instances, aurorae can even be seen in the tropics. On 6 February 1872, news of the sighting of one such aurora was carried by the Times of India newspaper. The aurora occurred on 4 February 1872 and, as noted, was also observed over the Middle East.

Seismic Microzonation: Principles,Practices and Experiments

This paper presents an overview of the seismic microzonation and the grade/level based study along with methods used for estimating hazard. The principles of seismic microzonation along with some current practices are discussed. Summary of seismic microzonation experiments carried out in India is presented. A detailed work of seismic microzonation of Bangalore has been presented as a case study. In this case study, a seismotectonic map for microzonation area has been developed covering 350 km radius around Bangalore, India using seismicity and seismotectonic parameters of the region. For seismic microzonation Bangalore Mahanagar Palike (BMP) area of 220 km2 has been selected as the study area. Seismic hazard analysis has been carried out using deterministic as well as probabilistic approaches. Synthetic ground motion at 653 locations, recurrence relation and peak ground acceleration maps at rock level have been generated. A detailed site characterization has been carried out using borehole with standard penetration test (SPT) ―N‖ values and geophysical data. The base map and 3-dimensional sub surface borehole model has been generated for study area using geographical information system (GIS). Multichannel analysis of surface wave (MASW)method has been used to generate one-dimensional shear wave velocity profile at 58 locations and two- dimensional profile at 20 locations. These shear wave velocities are used to estimate equivalent shear wave velocity in the study area at every 5m intervals up to a depth of 30m. Because of wider variation in the rock depth, equivalent shear for the soil overburden thickness alone has been estimated and mapped using ArcGIS 9.2. Based on equivalent shear wave velocity of soil overburden thickness, the study area is classified as ―site class D‖. Site response study has been carried out using geotechnical properties and synthetic ground motions with program SHAKE2000.The soil in the study area is classified as soil with moderate amplification potential. Site response results obtained using standard penetration test (SPT) ―N‖ values and shear wave velocity are compared, it is found that the results based on shear wave velocity is lower than the results based on SPT ―N‖ values. Further, predominant frequency of soil column has been estimated based on ambient noise survey measurements using instruments of L4-3D short period sensors equipped with Reftek 24 bit digital acquisition systems. Predominant frequency obtained from site response study is compared with ambient noise survey. In general, predominant frequencies in the study area vary from 3Hz to 12Hz. Due to flat terrain in the study area, the induced effect of land slide possibility is considered to be remote. However, induced effect of liquefaction hazard has been estimated and mapped. Finally, by integrating the above hazard parameters two hazard index maps have been developed using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) on GIS platform. One map is based on deterministic hazard analysis and other map is based on probabilistic hazard analysis. Finally, a general guideline is proposed by bringing out the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches.

Seismic Microzonation of Bangalore - Preliminary Maps

This paper presents an overview of the seismic microzonation and the grade/level based study along with methods used for estimating hazard. The principles of seismic microzonation along with some current practices are discussed. Summary of seismic microzonation experiments carried out in India is presented. A detailed work of seismic microzonation of Bangalore has been presented as a case study. In this case study, a seismotectonic map for microzonation area has been developed covering 350 km radius around Bangalore, India using seismicity and seismotectonic parameters of the region. For seismic microzonation Bangalore Mahanagar Palike (BMP) area of 220 km2 has been selected as the study area. Seismic hazard analysis has been carried out using deterministic as well as probabilistic approaches. Synthetic ground motion at 653 locations, recurrence relation and peak ground acceleration maps at rock level have been generated. A detailed site characterization has been carried out using borehole with standard penetration test (SPT) ―N‖ values and geophysical data. The base map and 3-dimensional sub surface borehole model has been generated for study area using geographical information system (GIS). Multichannel analysis of surface wave (MASW)method has been used to generate one-dimensional shear wave velocity profile at 58 locations and two- dimensional profile at 20 locations. These shear wave velocities are used to estimate equivalent shear wave velocity in the study area at every 5m intervals up to a depth of 30m. Because of wider variation in the rock depth, equivalent shear for the soil overburden thickness alone has been estimated and mapped using ArcGIS 9.2. Based on equivalent shear wave velocity of soil overburden thickness, the study area is classified as ―site class D‖. Site response study has been carried out using geotechnical properties and synthetic ground motions with program SHAKE2000.The soil in the study area is classified as soil with moderate amplification potential. Site response results obtained using standard penetration test (SPT) ―N‖ values and shear wave velocity are compared, it is found that the results based on shear wave velocity is lower than the results based on SPT ―N‖ values. Further, predominant frequency of soil column has been estimated based on ambient noise survey measurements using instruments of L4-3D short period sensors equipped with Reftek 24 bit digital acquisition systems. Predominant frequency obtained from site response study is compared with ambient noise survey. In general, predominant frequencies in the study area vary from 3Hz to 12Hz. Due to flat terrain in the study area, the induced effect of land slide possibility is considered to be remote. However, induced effect of liquefaction hazard has been estimated and mapped. Finally, by integrating the above hazard parameters two hazard index maps have been developed using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) on GIS platform. One map is based on deterministic hazard analysis and other map is based on probabilistic hazard analysis. Finally, a general guideline is proposed by bringing out the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches.

Seismic Hazard and Microzonation Studies using Geographic Information System - A Case Study of Bangalore city

Seismic hazard and microzonation of cities enable to characterize the potential seismic areas that need to be taken into account when designing new structures or retrofitting the existing ones. Study of seismic hazard and preparation of geotechnical microzonation maps has been attempted using Geographical Information System (GIS). GIS will provide an effective solution for integrating different layers of information thus providing a useful input for city planning and in particular input to earthquake resistant design of structures in an area. Seismic hazard is the study of expected earthquake ground motions at any point on the earth. Microzonation is the process of sub division of region in to number of zones based on the earthquake effects in the local scale. Seismic microzonation is the process of estimating response of soil layers under earthquake excitation and thus the variation of ground motion characteristic on the ground surface. For the seismic microzonation, geotechnical site characterization need to be assessed at local scale (micro level), which is further used to assess of the site response and liquefaction susceptibility of the sites. Seismotectonic atlas of the area having a radius of 350km around Bangalore has been prepared with all the seismogenic sources and historic earthquake events (a catalogue of about 1400 events since 1906). We have attempted to carryout the site characterization of Bangalore by collating conventional geotechnical boreholes data (about 900 borehole data with depth) and integrated in GIS. 3-D subsurface model of Bangalore prepared using GIS is shown in Figure 1.Further, Shear wave velocity survey based on geophysical method at about 60 locations in the city has been carried out in 220 square Kms area. Site response and local site effects have been evaluated using 1-dimensional ground response analysis. Spatial variability of soil overburden depths, ground surface Peak Ground Acceleration’s(PGA), spectral acceleration for different frequencies, liquefaction susceptibility have been mapped in the 220 sq km area using GIS.ArcInfo software has been used for this purpose. These maps can be used for the city planning and risk & vulnerability studies. Figure 2 shows a map of peak ground acceleration at rock level for Bangalore city. Microtremor experiments were jointly carried out with NGRI scientists at about 55 locations in the city and the predominant frequency of the overburden soil columns were evaluated.

Correction for Bias in Downscaling GCM Simulations for Hydrologic Impact Assessment

In a statistical downscaling model, it is important to remove the bias of General Circulations Model (GCM) outputs resulting from various assumptions about the geophysical processes. One conventional method for correcting such bias is standardisation, which is used prior to statistical downscaling to reduce systematic bias in the mean and variances of GCM predictors relative to the observations or National Centre for Environmental Prediction/ National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data. A major drawback of standardisation is that it may reduce the bias in the mean and variance of the predictor variable but it is much harder to accommodate the bias in large-scale patterns of atmospheric circulation in GCMs (e.g. shifts in the dominant storm track relative to observed data) or unrealistic inter-variable relationships. While predicting hydrologic scenarios, such uncorrected bias should be taken care of; otherwise it will propagate in the computations for subsequent years. A statistical method based on equi-probability transformation is applied in this study after downscaling, to remove the bias from the predicted hydrologic variable relative to the observed hydrologic variable for a baseline period. The model is applied in prediction of monsoon stream flow of Mahanadi River in India, from GCM generated large scale climatological data.

Solar energy decision support system

Energy plays a prominent role in human society. As a result of technological and industrial development,the demand for energy is rapidly increasing. Existing power sources that are mainly fossil fuel based are leaving an unacceptable legacy of waste and pollution apart from diminishing stock of fuels.Hence, the focus is now shifted to large-scale propagation of renewable energy. Renewable energy technologies are clean sources of energy that have a much lower environmental impact than conventional energy technologies. Solar energy is one such renewable energy. Most renewable energy comes either directly or indirectly from the sun. Estimation of solar energy potential of a region requires detailed solar radiation climatology, and it is necessary to collect extensive radiation data of high accuracy covering all climatic zones of the region. In this regard, a decision support system (DSS)would help in estimating solar energy potential considering the region’s energy requirement.This article explains the design and implementation of DSS for assessment of solar energy. The DSS with executive information systems and reporting tools helps to tap vast data resources and deliver information. The main hypothesis is that this tool can be used to form a core of practical methodology that will result in more resilient in time and can be used by decision-making bodies to assess various scenarios. It also offers means of entering, accessing, and interpreting the information for the purpose of sound decision making.