Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change

Abstract The paper evaluates the effect of future climate change (as per the CSIRO Mk3.5 A1FI future climate projection) on cotton yield in Southern Queensland and Northern NSW, eastern Australia by using of the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator). The simulations of cotton production show that changes in the influential meteorological parameters caused by climate change would lead to decreased future cotton yields without the effect of CO2 fertilisation. By 2050 the yields would decrease by 17 %. Including the effects of CO2 fertilisation ameliorates the effect of decreased water availability and yields increase by 5.9 % by 2030, but then decrease by 3.6 % in 2050. Importantly, it was necessary to increase irrigation amounts by almost 50 % to maintain adequate soil moisture levels. The effect of CO2 was found to have an important positive impact of the yield in spite of deleterious climate change. This implies that the physiological response of plants to climate change needs to be thoroughly understood to avoid making erroneous projections of yield and potentially stifling investment or increasing risk.

Spatial and temporal variability in midge (Nematocera) assemblages in shallow Finnish lakes (60−70 °N) : community-based modelling of past environmental change

Multi- and intralake datasets of fossil midge assemblages in surface sediments of small shallow lakes in Finland were studied to determine the most important environmental factors explaining trends in midge distribution and abundance. The aim was to develop palaeoenvironmental calibration models for the most important environmental variables for the purpose of reconstructing past environmental conditions. The developed models were applied to three high-resolution fossil midge stratigraphies from southern and eastern Finland to interpret environmental variability over the past 2000 years, with special focus on the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and recent anthropogenic changes. The midge-based results were compared with physical properties of the sediment, historical evidence and environmental reconstructions based on diatoms (Bacillariophyta), cladocerans (Crustacea: Cladocera) and tree rings. The results showed that the most important environmental factor controlling midge distribution and abundance along a latitudinal gradient in Finland was the mean July air temperature (TJul). However, when the dataset was environmentally screened to include only pristine lakes, water depth at the sampling site became more important. Furthermore, when the dataset was geographically scaled to southern Finland, hypolimnetic oxygen conditions became the dominant environmental factor. The results from an intralake dataset from eastern Finland showed that the most important environmental factors controlling midge distribution within a lake basin were river contribution, water depth and submerged vegetation patterns. In addition, the results of the intralake dataset showed that the fossil midge assemblages represent fauna that lived in close proximity to the sampling sites, thus enabling the exploration of within-lake gradients in midge assemblages. Importantly, this within-lake heterogeneity in midge assemblages may have effects on midge-based temperature estimations, because samples taken from the deepest point of a lake basin may infer considerably colder temperatures than expected, as shown by the present test results. Therefore, it is suggested here that the samples in fossil midge studies involving shallow boreal lakes should be taken from the sublittoral, where the assemblages are most representative of the whole lake fauna. Transfer functions between midge assemblages and the environmental forcing factors that were significantly related with the assemblages, including mean air TJul, water depth, hypolimnetic oxygen, stream flow and distance to littoral vegetation, were developed using weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS) techniques, which outperformed all the other tested numerical approaches. Application of the models in downcore studies showed mostly consistent trends. Based on the present results, which agreed with previous studies and historical evidence, the Medieval Climate Anomaly between ca. 800 and 1300 AD in eastern Finland was characterized by warm temperature conditions and dry summers, but probably humid winters. The Little Ice Age (LIA) prevailed in southern Finland from ca. 1550 to 1850 AD, with the coldest conditions occurring at ca. 1700 AD, whereas in eastern Finland the cold conditions prevailed over a longer time period, from ca. 1300 until 1900 AD. The recent climatic warming was clearly represented in all of the temperature reconstructions. In the terms of long-term climatology, the present results provide support for the concept that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index has a positive correlation with winter precipitation and annual temperature and a negative correlation with summer precipitation in eastern Finland. In general, the results indicate a relatively warm climate with dry summers but snowy winters during the MCA and a cool climate with rainy summers and dry winters during the LIA. The results of the present reconstructions and the forthcoming applications of the models can be used in assessments of long-term environmental dynamics to refine the understanding of past environmental reference conditions and natural variability required by environmental scientists, ecologists and policy makers to make decisions concerning the presently occurring global, regional and local changes. The developed midge-based models for temperature, hypolimnetic oxygen, water depth, littoral vegetation shift and stream flow, presented in this thesis, are open for scientific use on request.

Evaluation of a workplace alcohol and other drug policy

BACKGROUND The current impetus for developing alcohol and/or other drugs (AODs) workplace policies in Australia is to reduce workplace AOD impairment, improve safety, and prevent AOD-related injury in the workplace. For these policies to be effective, they need to be informed by scientific evidence. Evidence to inform the development and implementation of effective workplace AOD policies is currently lacking. There does not currently appear to be conclusive evidence for the effectiveness of workplace AOD policies in reducing impairment and preventing AOD-related injury. There is also no apparent evidence regarding which factors facilitate or impede the success of an AOD policy, or whether, for example, unsuccessful policy outcomes were due to poor policy or merely poor implementation of the policy. It was the aim of this research to undertake a process, impact, and outcome evaluation of a workplace AOD policy, and to contribute to the body of knowledge on the development and implementation of effective workplace AOD policies. METHODS The research setting was a state-based power-generating industry in Australia between May 2008 and May 2010. Participants for the process evaluation study were individuals who were integral to either the development or the implementation of the workplace AOD policy, or both of these processes (key informants), and comprised the majority of individuals who were involved in the process of developing and/or implementing the workplace AOD policy. The sample represented the two main groups of interest—management and union delegates/employee representatives—from all three of the participating organisations. For the impact and outcome evaluation studies, the population included all employees from the three participating organisations, and participants were all employees who consented to participate in the study and who completed both the pre-and post-policy implementation questionnaires. Qualitative methods in the form of interviews with key stakeholders were used to evaluate the process of developing and implementing the workplace AOD policy. In order to evaluate the impact of the policy with regard to the risk factors for workplace AOD impairment, and the outcome of the policy in terms of reducing workplace AOD impairment, quantitative methods in the form of a non-randomised single group pre- and post-test design were used. Changes from Time 1 (pre) to Time 2 (post) in the risk factors for workplace AOD impairment, and changes in the behaviour of interest—(self-reported) workplace AOD impairment—were measured. An integration of the findings from the process, impact, and outcome evaluation studies was undertaken using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. RESULTS For the process evaluation study Study respondents indicated that their policy was developed in the context of comparable industries across Australia developing workplace AOD policies, and that this was mainly out of concern for the deleterious health and safety impacts of workplace AOD impairment. Results from the process evaluation study also indicated that in developing and implementing the workplace AOD policy, there were mainly ‗winners', in terms of health and safety in the workplace. While there were some components of the development and implementation of the policy that were better done than others, and the process was expensive and took a long time, there were, overall, few unanticipated consequences to implementing the policy and it was reported to be thorough and of a high standard. Findings also indicated that overall the policy was developed and implemented according to best-practice in that: consultation during the policy development phase (with all the main stakeholders) was extensive; the policy was comprehensive; there was universal application of the policy to all employees; changes in the workplace (with regard to the policy) were gradual; and, the policy was publicised appropriately. Furthermore, study participants' responses indicated that the role of an independent external expert, who was trusted by all stakeholders, was integral to the success of the policy. For the impact and outcome evaluation studies Notwithstanding the limitations of pre- and post-test study designs with regard to attributing cause to the intervention, the findings from the impact evaluation study indicated that following policy implementation, statistically significant positive changes with regard to workplace AOD impairment were recorded for the following variables (risk factors for workplace AOD impairment): Knowledge; Attitudes; Perceived Behavioural Control; Perceptions of the Certainty of being punished for coming to work impaired by AODs; Perceptions of the Swiftness of punishment for coming to work impaired by AODs; and Direct and Indirect Experience with Punishment Avoidance for workplace AOD impairment. There were, however, no statistically significant positive changes following policy implementation for Behavioural Intentions, Subjective Norms, and Perceptions of the Severity of punishment for workplace AOD impairment. With regard to the outcome evaluation, there was a statistically significant reduction in self-reported workplace AOD impairment following the implementation of the policy. As with the impact evaluation, these findings need to be interpreted in light of the limitations of the study design in being able to attribute cause to the intervention alone. The findings from the outcome evaluation study also showed that while a positive change in self-reported workplace AOD impairment following implementation of the policy did not appear to be related to gender, age group, or employment type, it did appear to be related to levels of employee general alcohol use, cannabis use, site type, and employment role. Integration of the process, impact, and outcome evaluation studies There appeared to be qualitative support for the relationship between the process of developing and implementing the policy, and the impact of the policy in changing the risk factors for workplace AOD impairment. That is, overall the workplace AOD policy was developed and implemented well and, following its implementation, there were positive changes in the majority of measured risk factors for workplace AOD impairment. Quantitative findings lend further support for a relationship between the process and impact of the policy, in that there was a statistically significant association between employee perceived fidelity of the policy (related to the process of the policy) and positive changes in some risk factors for workplace AOD impairment (representing the impact of the policy). Findings also indicated support for the relationship between the impact of the policy in changing the risk factors for workplace AOD impairment and the outcome of the policy in reducing workplace AOD impairment: positive changes in the risk factors for workplace AOD impairment (impact) were related to positive changes in self reported workplace AOD impairment (representing the main goal and outcome of the policy). CONCLUSIONS The findings from the research indicate support for the conclusion that the policy was appropriately implemented and that it achieved its objectives and main goal. The Doctoral research findings also addressed a number of gaps in the literature on workplace AOD impairment, namely: the likely effectiveness of AOD policies for reducing AOD impairment in the workplace, which factors in the development and implementation of a workplace AOD policy are likely to facilitate or impede the effectiveness of the policy to reduce workplace AOD impairment, and which employee groups are less likely to respond well to policies of this type. The findings from this research not only represent an example of translational, applied research—through the evaluation of the study industry's policy—but also add to the body of knowledge on workplace AOD policies and provide policy-makers with evidence which may be useful in the development and implementation of effective workplace AOD policies. Importantly, the findings espouse the importance of scientific evidence in the development, implementation, and evaluation of workplace AOD policies.

Integration of natural hazards, risk and climate change into spatial planning practices

Most countries of Europe, as well as many countries in other parts of the world, are experiencing an increased impact of natural hazards. It is often speculated, but not yet proven, that climate change might influence the frequency and magnitude of certain hydro-meteorological natural hazards. What has certainly been observed is a sharp increase in financial losses caused by natural hazards worldwide. Eventhough Europe appears to be a space that is not affected by natural hazards to such catastrophic extents as other parts of the world are, the damages experienced here are certainly increasing too. Natural hazards, climate change and, in particular, risks have therefore recently been put high on the political agenda of the EU. In the search for appropriate instruments for mitigating impacts of natural hazards and climate change, as well as risks, the integration of these factors into spatial planning practices is constantly receiving higher attention. The focus of most approaches lies on single hazards and climate change mitigation strategies. The current paradigm shift of climate change mitigation to adaptation is used as a basis to draw conclusions and recommendations on what concepts could be further incorporated into spatial planning practices. Especially multi-hazard approaches are discussed as an important approach that should be developed further. One focal point is the definition and applicability of the terms natural hazard, vulnerability and risk in spatial planning practices. Especially vulnerability and risk concepts are so many-fold and complicated that their application in spatial planning has to be analysed most carefully. The PhD thesis is based on six published articles that describe the results of European research projects, which have elaborated strategies and tools for integrated communication and assessment practices on natural hazards and climate change impacts. The papers describe approaches on local, regional and European level, both from theoretical and practical perspectives. Based on these, passed, current and future potential spatial planning applications are reviewed and discussed. In conclusion it is recommended to shift from single hazard assessments to multi-hazard approaches, integrating potential climate change impacts. Vulnerability concepts should play a stronger role than present, and adaptation to natural hazards and climate change should be more emphasized in relation to mitigation. It is outlined that the integration of risk concepts in planning is rather complicated and would need very careful assessment to ensure applicability. Future spatial planning practices should also consider to be more interdisciplinary, i.e. to integrate as many stakeholders and experts as possible to ensure the sustainability of investments.

Reducing falls in hospital through education to change patient and staff behaviour: A stepped wedge cluster randomised controlled effectiveness trial

Background: Falls remain the most frequent adverse event reported in hospitals, particularly geriatric rehabilitation wards. Randomised trials reducing fall injuries in hospitals have been elusive. Our previous randomised trial (n = 1206) demonstrated that multimedia education with physiotherapist falls educator support reduced falls among patients with higher cognition levels, but this benefit was offset by a potential increase in falls rates among patients with poor cognition. In the previous trial, hospital staff were blinded to the allocation of individual patients, and only delivered usual care.

Overcoming barriers to the successful implementation of a classical biological control strategy for the exotic invasive weed Mikania micrantha in the Asia-Pacific region

Mikania micrantha (Asteraceae) commonly known as mikania, is a major invasive alien plant (IAP) in the tropical humid agricultural and forest zones of the Asia-Pacific region. This fast-growing Neotropical vine is able to smother plants in agricultural ecosystems, agroforestry and natural habitats, reducing productivity and biodiversity. Fungal pathogens were first investigated for the classical biological control of this weed in 1996. This resulted in the selection and screening of the highly host-specific and damaging rust pathogen, Puccinia spegazzinii (Pucciniales). It was first released in India and China in 2005/6, although it is not believed to have established. Since then, it has been released successfully in Taiwan, Papua New Guinea (PNG), Fiji and most recently Vanuatu. The rust has established and is spreading rapidly after applying lessons learned from the first releases on the best rust pathotype and release strategy. In PNG, direct monitoring of vegetation change has demonstrated that the rust is having a significant impact on M. micrantha, with no unpredicted non-target impacts. Despite this, the authorities in many countries where mikania is a problem remain cautious about releasing the rust. In Western Samoa, introduction of the rust was not pursued because of a conflict of interest, and the perception that mikania suppresses even worse weeds. For some, ‘pathophobia’ is still a major obstacle. In Indonesia, where insects for weed CBC have been introduced, pathogens will currently not be considered. In other countries such as Bhutan and Myanmar, there are no baseline data on the presence and impact of IAPs and, with no history of CBC, no institutional framework for implementing this approach. Malaysia has a well-developed framework, but capacity needs to be built in the country. Overall, it remains critical to have champions at decision making levels. Hence, even with an effective ‘off-the-shelf’ agent available, implementation of mikania CBC still requires significant inputs tailored to the countries’ specific needs.

Zeaxanthin biofortification of sweet-corn and factors affecting zeaxanthin accumulation and colour change

Zeaxanthin, along with its isomer lutein, are the major carotenoids contributing to the characteristic colour of yellow sweet-corn. From a human health perspective, these two carotenoids are also specifically accumulated in the human macula, and are thought to protect the photoreceptor cells of the eye from blue light oxidative damage and to improve visual acuity. As humans cannot synthesise these compounds, they must be accumulated from dietary components containing zeaxanthin and lutein. In comparison to most dietary sources, yellow sweet-corn (Zea mays var. rugosa) is a particularly good source of zeaxanthin, although the concentration of zeaxanthin is still fairly low in comparison to what is considered a supplementary dose to improve macular pigment concentration (2 mg/person/day). In our present project, we have increased zeaxanthin concentration in sweet-corn kernels from 0.2 to 0.3 mg/100 g FW to greater than 2.0 mg/100 g FW at sweet-corn eating-stage, substantially reducing the amount of corn required to provide the same dosage of zeaxanthin. This was achieved by altering the carotenoid synthesis pathway to more than double total carotenoid synthesis and to redirect carotenoid synthesis towards the beta-arm of the pathway where zeaxanthin is synthesised. This resulted in a proportional increase of zeaxanthin from 22% to 70% of the total carotenoid present. As kernels increase in physiological maturity, carotenoid concentration also significantly increases, mainly due to increased synthesis but also due to a decline in moisture content of the kernels. When fully mature, dried kernels can reach zeaxanthin and carotene concentrations of 8.7 mg/100 g and 2.6 mg/100 g, respectively. Although kernels continue to increase in zeaxanthin when harvested past their normal harvest maturity stage, the texture of these 'over-mature' kernels is tough, making them less appealing for fresh consumption. Increase in zeaxanthin concentration and other orange carotenoids such as p-carotene also results in a decline in kernel hue angle of fresh sweet-corn from approximately 90 (yellow) to as low as 75 (orange-yellow). This enables high-zeaxanthin sweet-corn to be visually-distinguishable from standard yellow sweet-corn, which is predominantly pigmented by lutein.

Environmental change and anthropogenic impact on lake sediments during the Holocene in the Finnish - Karelian inland area

This thesis discusses the prehistoric human disturbance during the Holocene by means of case studies using detailed high-resolution pollen analysis from lake sediment. The four lakes studied are situated between 61o 40' and 61o 50' latitudes in the Finnish Karelian inland area and vary between 2.4 and 28.8 ha in size. The existence of Early Metal Age population was one important question. Another study question concerned the development of grazing, and the relationship between slash-and-burn cultivation and permanent field cultivation. The results were presented as pollen percentages and pollen concentrations (grains cm 3). Accumulation values (grains cm 2 yr 1) were calculated for Lake Nautajärvi and Lake Orijärvi sediment, where the sediment accumulation rate was precisely determined. Sediment properties were determined using loss-on-ignition (LOI) and magnetic susceptibility (k). Dating methods used include both conventional and AMS 14C determinations, paleomagnetic dating and varve choronology. The isolation of Lake Kirjavalampi on the northern shore of Lake Ladoga took place ca. 1460 1300 BC. The long sediment cores from Finland, Lake Kirkkolampi and Lake Orijärvi in southeastern Finland and Lake Nautajärvi in south central Finland all extended back to the Early Holocene and were isolated from the Baltic basin ca. 9600 BC, 8600 BC and 7675 BC, respectively. In the long sediment cores, the expansion of Alnus was visible between 7200 - 6840 BC. The spread of Tilia was dated in Lake Kirkkolampi to 6600 BC, in Lake Orijärvi to 5000 BC and at Lake Nautajärvi to 4600 BC. Picea is present locally in Lake Kirkkolampi from 4340 BC, in Lake Orijärvi from 6520 BC and in Lake Nautajärvi from 3500 BC onwards. The first modifications in the pollen data, apparently connected to anthropogenic impacts, were dated to the beginning of the Early Metal Period, 1880 1600 BC. Anthropogenic activity became clear in all the study sites by the end of the Early Metal Period, between 500 BC AD 300. According to Secale pollen, slash-and-burn cultivation was practised around the eastern study lakes from AD 300 600 onwards, and at the study site in central Finland from AD 880 onwards. The overall human impact, however, remained low in the studied sites until the Late Iron Age. Increasing human activity, including an increase in fire frequency was detected from AD 800 900 onwards in the study sites in eastern Finland. In Lake Kirkkolampi, this included cultivation on permanent fields, but in Lake Orijärvi, permanent field cultivation became visible as late as AD 1220, even when the macrofossil data demonstrated the onset of cultivation on permanent fields as early as the 7th century AD. On the northern shore of Lake Ladoga, local activity became visible from ca. AD 1260 onwards and at Lake Nautajärvi, sediment the local occupation was traceable from 1420 AD onwards. The highest values of Secale pollen were recorded both in Lake Orijärvi and Lake Kirjavalampi between ca. AD 1700 1900, and could be associated with the most intensive period of slash-and-burn from AD 1750 to 1850 in eastern Finland.

Can teacher collaboration overcome barriers to interdisciplinary learning in a disciplinary university? A case study using climate change

A teacher network was formed at an Australian university in order to better promote interdisciplinary student learning on the complex social-environmental problem of climate change. Rather than leaving it to students to piece together disciplinary responses, eight teaching academics collaborated on the task of exposing students to different types of knowledge in a way that was more than the summing of disciplinary parts. With a part-time network facilitator providing cohesion, network members were able to teach into each other’s classes, and share material and student activities across a range of units that included business, zoology, marine science, geography and education. Participants reported that the most positive aspects of the project were the collegiality and support for teaching innovation provided by peers. However, participants also reported being time-poor and overworked. Maintaining the collaboration beyond the initial one year project proved difficult because without funding for the network facilitator, participants were unable to dedicate the time required to meet and collaborate on shared activities. In order to strengthen teacher collaboration in a university whose administrative structures are predominantly discipline-based, there is need for recognition of the benefits of interdisciplinary learning to be matched by recognition of the need for financial and other resources to support collaborative teaching initiatives.

Reconfiguring agriculture through the relocation of production systems for water, environment and food security under climate change

The prospect of climate change has revived both fears of food insecurity and its corollary, market opportunities for agricultural production. In Australia, with its long history of state-sponsored agricultural development, there is renewed interest in the agricultural development of tropical and sub-tropical northern regions. Climate projections suggest that there will be less water available to the main irrigation systems of the eastern central and southern regions of Australia, while net rainfall could be sustained or even increase in the northern areas. Hence, there could be more intensive use of northern agricultural areas, with the relocation of some production of economically important commodities such as vegetables, rice and cotton. The problem is that the expansion of cropping in northern Australia has been constrained by agronomic and economic considerations. The present paper examines the economics, at both farm and regional level, of relocating some cotton production from the east-central irrigation areas to the north where there is an existing irrigation scheme together with some industry and individual interest in such relocation. Integrated modelling and expert knowledge are used to examine this example of prospective climate change adaptation. Farm-level simulations show that without adaptation, overall gross margins will decrease under a combination of climate change and reduction in water availability. A dynamic regional Computable General Equilibrium model is used to explore two scenarios of relocating cotton production from south east Queensland, to sugar-dominated areas in northern Queensland. Overall, an increase in real economic output and real income was realized when some cotton production was relocated to sugar cane fallow land/new land. There were, however, large negative effects on regional economies where cotton production displaced sugar cane. It is concluded that even excluding the agronomic uncertainties, which are not examined here, there is unlikely to be significant market-driven relocation of cotton production.

Implementing technologies and strategies to maintain resistance to sunflower rust

This project proposes to implement resistance gene pyramiding strategies through close collaboration with Pacific Seeds. These strategies have been developed by Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries (DPI&F) researchers in two previous GRDC projects, DAQ356 and DAQ537. The gene pyramids will be incorporated into elite breeding material using techniques and technologies developed by DPI&F. These include the use of DNA markers. If successful, a range of elite lines/commercial hybrids containing strategic resistance gene pyramids will be available to growers. These lines will provide the industry with a directed strategy to manage the sunflower rust pathogen and reduce the risk of outbreaks of the disease.

Co2 emissions and income trajectory in Australia: The role of technological change

This study investigates the relationship between per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and per capita GDP in Australia, while controlling for technological state as measured by multifactor productivity and export of black coal. Although technological progress seems to play a critical role in achieving long term goals of CO2 reduction and economic growth, empirical studies have often considered time trend to proxy technological change. However, as discoveries and diffusion of new technologies may not progress smoothly with time, the assumption of a deterministic technological progress may be incorrect in the long run. The use of multifactor productivity as a measure of technological state, therefore, overcomes the limitations and provides practical policy directions. This study uses recently developed bound-testing approach, which is complemented by Johansen- Juselius maximum likelihood approach and a reasonably large sample size to investigate the cointegration relationship. Both of the techniques suggest that cointegration relationship exists among the variables. The long-run and short-run coefficients of CO2 emissions function is estimated using ARDL approach. The empirical findings in the study show evidence of the existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve type relationship for per capita CO2 emissions in the Australian context. The technology as measured by the multifactor productivity, however, is not found as an influencing variable in emissionsincome trajectory.

Two-dimensional heat conduction with phase change in a semi-infinite mould

Analytical solution of a 2-dimensional problem of solidification of a superheated liquid in a semi-infinite mould has been studied in this paper. On the boundary, the prescribed temperature is such that the solidification starts simultaneously at all points of the boundary. Results are also given for the 2-dimensional ablation problem. The solution of the heat conduction equation has been obtained in terms of multiple Laplace integrals involving suitable unknown fictitious initial temperatures. These fictitious initial temperatures have interesting physical interpretations. By choosing suitable series expansions for fictitious initial temperatures and moving interface boundary, the unknown quantities can be determined. Solidification thickness has been calculated for short time and effect of parameters on the solidification thickness has been shown with the help of graphs.

Letter from Moses Gomez who wishes to change his seat in synagogue

Digital image