Some Methods for Summarizing Survivorship Data in Nonstandard Situations

One difficulty in summarising biological survivorship data is that the hazard rates are often neither constant nor increasing with time or decreasing with time in the entire life span. The promising Weibull model does not work here. The paper demonstrates how bath tub shaped quadratic models may be used in such a case. Further, sometimes due to a paucity of data actual lifetimes are not as certainable. It is shown how a concept from queuing theory namely first in first out (FIFO) can be profitably used here. Another nonstandard situation considered is one in which lifespan of the individual entity is too long compared to duration of the experiment. This situation is dealt with, by using ancilliary information. In each case the methodology is illustrated with numerical examples.

Kansanomainen moraali : Tutkimus savolaisista ja pohjalaisista uskomustarinoista

In my research I discuss belief legends as representations of folk morals. Doing wrong is not one s private affair because it can have consequences for the life of a whole community, and therefore, it is in a community s interest to control the conduct of its members. Belief legends have served as a means of instruction for proper behaviour. In this way a community has contributed to the socialization of its members so as to make them comply with common norms and morals. My study is focused on belief legends relating to some type of offence (a crime, an infringement or another kind of misdeed) and its consequences. I try to find out whether there are regional differences and similarities. The material consists of 3120 warning legends that have been recorded in the years 1881‒1981, mainly in Southern Savo and Southern Ostrobothnia, partly in Northern Savo and Northern Ostrobothnia. I have collected the material at the Folklore Archives of the Finnish Literature Society. As a research method I apply discourse analysis to outline the schematic model of the legends, the superstructure, and the substance of the legends, the semantic macrostructure. Also I apply quantitative methods such as cross tabulations in order to establish regional differences and similarities in the concentrated and far abstracted semantic macrostructure of the legends. I look for explanations for the perceptions made in, above all, the cultural context but also with the view of the development of judicial history. Warning legends relating to what is wrong or right are clearly an expression of peasant folklore. The most common types of offences are violations of law and transgressions of Christian traditions and of social conduct. Transgression of Christian traditions is the most frequently committed offence in all geographical areas surveyed. Warning legends have an explicit focus on offence committed by a single person. The most common punishing figure in Southern Savo is the Devil, in Southern Ostrobothnia the Dead, in Northern Savo God, and in Northern Ostrobothnia the Dead or God. The most rigid folk morals are manifested in legends from Northern Savo, where narratives of mortal sin are more frequent than in other areas. The influence of the revivalist movements may be alleged in explanation of this phenomenon. According to these legends people living in Southern Savo are the most tolerant of those included in the study, presumably because of a more liberal revivalist movement in this area, called the Friendship movement. In folk morals women are treated more severely than men. Characteristic of the legends from Ostrobothnia is the emphasis on community, while the legends from Savo lay stress on individuality. The legends from Ostrobothnia manifest a more explicit distinction between the offence committed by a woman and one committed by a man than do legends from Savo. An explanation may be found in the prevailing industries, adherent in the division of labour between the sexes, in this region. The legends are man-centric. Women s occupations are connected with home and family, whereas men s fields of activities are wider. Women moralise each other harsher than do men. Folk morals advise people to be moderate in every sense. Through belief legends people are taught to respect human beings and the rest of creation, to obey the Christian religion and God, and to be moderate in search of wealth.

Global trade in ornamental fish from an Australian perspective: The case for revised import risk analysis and management strategies

Over 1 billion ornamental fish comprising more than 4000 freshwater and 1400 marine species are traded internationally each year, with 8-10 million imported into Australia alone. Compared to other commodities, the pathogens and disease translocation risks associated with this pattern of trade have been poorly documented. The aim of this study was to conduct an appraisal of the effectiveness of risk analysis and quarantine controls as they are applied according to the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement in Australia. Ornamental fish originate from about 100 countries and hazards are mostly unknown; since 2000 there have been 16-fold fewer scientific publications on ornamental fish disease compared to farmed fish disease, and 470 fewer compared to disease in terrestrial species (cattle). The import quarantine policies of a range of countries were reviewed and classified as stringent or non-stringent based on the levels of pre-border and border controls. Australia has a stringent policy which includes pre-border health certification and a mandatory quarantine period at border of 1-3 weeks in registered quarantine premises supervised by government quarantine staff. Despite these measures there have been many disease incursions as well as establishment of significant exotic viral, bacterial, fungal, protozoal and metazoan pathogens from ornamental fish in farmed native Australian fish and free-living introduced species. Recent examples include Megalocytivirus and Aeromonas salmonicida atypical strain. In 2006, there were 22 species of alien ornamental fish with established breeding populations in waterways in Australia and freshwater plants and molluscs have also been introduced, proving a direct transmission pathway for establishment of pathogens in native fish species. Australia's stringent quarantine policies for imported ornamental fish are based on import risk analysis under the SPS agreement but have not provided an acceptable level of protection (ALOP) consistent with government objectives to prevent introduction of pests and diseases, promote development of future aquaculture industries or maintain biodiversity. It is concluded that the risk analysis process described by the Office International des Epizooties under the SPS agreement cannot be used in a meaningful way for current patterns of ornamental fish trade. Transboundary disease incursions will continue and exotic pathogens will become established in new regions as a result of the ornamental fish trade, and this will be an international phenomenon. Ornamental fish represent a special case in live animal trade where OIE guidelines for risk analysis need to be revised. Alternatively, for countries such as Australia with implied very high ALOP, the number of species traded and the number of sources permitted need to be dramatically reduced to facilitate hazard identification, risk assessment and import quarantine controls. Lead papers of the eleventh symposium of the International Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics (ISVEE), Cairns, Australia

Risk management for mycotoxin contamination of Australian maize

Recent incidents of mycotoxin contamination (particularly aflatoxins and fumonisins) have demonstrated a need for an industry-wide management system to ensure Australian maize meets the requirements of all domestic users and export markets. Results of recent surveys are presented, demonstrating overall good conformity with nationally accepted industry marketing standards but with occasional samples exceeding these levels. This paper describes mycotoxin-related hazards inherent in the Australian maize production system and a methodology combining good agricultural practices and the hazard analysis critical control point framework to manage risk.

Evaluating the risk of mixtures in the indoor air of primary school classrooms

In school environments, children are constantly exposed to mixtures of airborne substances, derived from a variety of sources, both in the classroom and in the school surroundings. It is important to evaluate the hazardous properties of these mixtures, in order to conduct risk assessments of their impact on chil¬dren’s health. Within this context, through the application of a Maximum Cumulative Ratio approach, this study aimed to explore whether health risks due to indoor air mixtures are driven by a single substance or are due to cumulative exposure to various substances. This methodology requires knowledge of the concentration of substances in the air mixture, together with a health related weighting factor (i.e. reference concentration or lowest concentration of interest), which is necessary to calculate the Hazard Index. Maximum cumulative ratio and Hazard Index values were then used to categorise the mixtures into four groups, based on their hazard potential and therefore, appropriate risk management strategies. Air samples were collected from classrooms in 25 primary schools in Brisbane, Australia. Analysis was conducted based on the measured concentration of these substances in about 300 air samples. The results showed that in 92% of the schools, indoor air mixtures belonged to the ‘low concern’ group and therefore, they did not require any further assessment. In the remaining schools, toxicity was mainly governed by a single substance, with a very small number of schools having a multiple substance mix which required a combined risk assessment. The proposed approach enables the identification of such schools and thus, aides in the efficient health risk management of pollution emissions and air quality in the school environment.

Grader grass (Themeda quadrivalvis): changing savannah ecosystems.

Wayne Vogler and Nikki Owen recently published their paper 'Grader grass (Themeda quadrivalvis): changing savannah ecosystems' in Proceedings of the 16th Australian Weeds Conference. Grader grass is an invasive exotic 'high biomass' grass from India that is increasing its distribution in northern Australia. It is unpalatable and can dominate ecosystems, thereby decreasing grazing animal production, degrading conservation areas and increasing fire intensity and hazard. They studied aspects of its biology at a field site in north Queensland where the initial biomass of the grass layer was found to be 70% grader grass. Grader grass also produced 80% of the seed input into this ecosystem during the first growing season. These factors, in combination with a large viable seed bank and rapid germination at the start of the wet season, demonstrate the potential of grader grass to dominate and degrade the savannah ecosystems of northern Australia.

A review of current knowledge of the weedy species Themeda quadrivalvis (grader grass)

This review of grader grass (Themeda quadrivalvis) attempts to collate current knowledge and identify knowledge gaps that may require further research. Grader grass is a tropical annual grass native to India that is now spread throughout many of the tropical regions of the world. In Australia, it has spread rapidly since its introduction in the 1930s and is now naturalised in the tropical areas of Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia and extends south along the east coast to northern New South Wales. It is a vigorous grass with limited palatability, that is capable of invading native and improved pastures, cropping land and protected areas such as state and national parks. Grader grass can form dense monocultures that reduce biodiversity, decrease animal productivity and increase the fire hazard in the seasonally dry tropics. Control options are based on herbicides, grazing management and slashing, while overgrazing appears to favour grader grass. The effect of fire on grader grass is inconclusive and needs to be defined. Little is known about the biology and impacts of grader grass in agricultural and protected ecosystems in Australia. In particular, information is needed on soil seed bank longevity, seed production, germination and growth, which would allow the development of management strategies to control this weedy grass.

Weed eradication - an economic perspective

There has been recent interest in determining the upper limits to the feasibility of weed eradication. Although a number of disparate factors determine the success of an eradication program, ultimately eradication feasibility must be viewed in the context of the amount of investment that can be made. The latter should reflect the hazard posed by an invasion, with greater investment justified by greater threats. In simplest terms, the effort (and hence investment) to achieve weed eradication comprises the detection effort required to delimit an invasion plus the search and control effort required to prevent reproduction until extirpation occurs over the entire infested area. The difficulty of estimating the required investment at the commencement of a weed eradication program (as well as during periodic reviews) is a serious problem. Bioeconomics show promise in determining the optimal approach to managing weed invasions, notwithstanding ongoing difficulties in estimating the costs and benefits of eradication and alternative invasion management strategies. A flexible approach to the management of weed invasions is needed, allowing for the adoption of another strategy when it becomes clear that the probability of eradication is low, owing to resourcing or intractable technical issues. Whether the considerable progress that has been achieved towards eradication of the once massive witchweed invasion can be duplicated for other weeds of agricultural systems will depend to a large extent upon investment (. $250 million over 50 yr in this instance). Weeds of natural ecosystems seem destined to remain more difficult eradication targets for a variety of reasons, including higher impedance to eradication, more difficulty in valuing the benefits arising from eradication, and possibly less willingness to pay from society at large.

Estimation of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration for South India with local site effects: probabilistic approach

In this work an attempt has been made to evaluate the seismic hazard of South India (8.0 degrees N-20 degrees N; 72 degrees E-88 degrees E) based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). The earthquake data obtained from different sources were declustered to remove the dependent events. A total of 598 earthquakes of moment magnitude 4 and above were obtained from the study area after declustering, and were considered for further hazard analysis. The seismotectonic map of the study area was prepared by considering the faults, lineaments and the shear zones in the study area which are associated with earthquakes of magnitude 4 and above. For assessing theseismic hazard, the study area was divided into small grids of size 0.1 degrees x0.1 degrees, and the hazard parameters were calculated at the centre of each of these grid cells by considering all the seismic sources with in a radius of 300 km. Rock level peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral acceleration (SA) values at 1 corresponding to 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years have been calculated for all the grid points. The contour maps showing the spatial variation of these values are presented here. Uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) at rock level for 5% damping and 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years were also developed for all the grid points. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) at surface level was calculated for the entire South India for four different site classes. These values can be used to find the PGA values at any site in South India based on site class at that location. Thus, this method can be viewed as a simplified method to evaluate the PGA values at any site in the study area.

Nitrogen use for high productivity and sustainability in cashew.

Interest in cashew production in Australia has been stimulated by domestic and export market opportunities and suitability of large areas of tropical Australia. Economic models indicate that cashew production is profitable at 2.8 t ha-1 nut-in-shell (NIS). Balanced plant nutrition is essential to achieve economic yields in Australia, with nitrogen (N) of particular importance because of its capacity to modify growth, affect nut yield and cause environmental degradation through soil acidification and off-site contamination. The study on a commercial cashew plantation at Dimbulah, Australia, investigated the effect of N rate and timing on cashew growth, nut production, N leaching and soil chemical properties over five growth cycles (1995-1999). Nitrogen was applied during the main periods of vegetative (December-April) and reproductive (June-October) growth. Commercial NIS yields (up to 4.4 t ha-1 from individual trees) that exceeded the economic threshold of 2.8 t ha-1 were achieved. The yield response was mainly determined by canopy size as mean nut weight, panicle density and nuts per panicle were largely unaffected by N treatments. Nitrogen application confined to the main period of vegetative growth (December-April) produced a seasonal growth pattern that corresponded most consistently with highest NIS yield. This N timing also reduced late season flowering and undesirable post-November nut drop. Higher yields were not produced at N rates greater than 17 g m-2 of canopy surface area (equating to 210 kg N ha-1 for mature size trees). High yields were attained when N concentrations in Mveg leaves in May-June were about 2%, but this assessment occurs at a time when it is not feasible to correct N deficiency. The Mflor leaf of the preceding November, used in conjunction with the Mveg leaf, was proposed as a diagnostic tool to guide N rate decisions. Leaching of nitrate-N and acidification of the soil profile was recorded to 0.9 m. This is an environmental and sustainability hazard, and demonstrates that improved methods of N management are required.

Salmonella Virchow and Salmonella Weltevreden in a Random Survey of the Asian House Gecko, Hemidactylus frenatus, in Houses in Northern Australia.

Background: Salmonella enterica serotype Virchow is the most common cause of invasive nontyphoid salmonellosis in North Queensland, particularly in infants, but the zoonotic source is unknown. This study aimed at determining (i) the prevalence of the introduced Asian house gecko, Hemidactylus frenatus, in houses in North Queensland and (ii) whether they were a potential source of Salmonella Virchow. Methods: Asian house geckos were collected in a random survey of houses in Townsville, North Queensland. Gut contents underwent microbiological analysis within 2 h of removal using both direct plating and enrichment broth methods. Any organism found to be a presumptive Salmonella spp. was then sent to a reference lab for confirmation of genus/species, serotyping, and phage typing if indicated. Results: One hundred Asian house geckos were collected from 57 houses. Geckos were present in 100% of houses surveyed, and prevalence of Salmonella in large intestinal contents was 7% (95% confidence interval 2, 12%). Three serotypes were found: Virchow (phage type 8), Weltevreden, and an untypable subspecies 1 serotype 11:-:1,7. Conclusion: Since Salmonella Virchow (phage type 8) is associated with invasive disease, the introduced Asian house gecko may play a significant role in the epidemiology of sporadic salmonellosis in places invaded by these peridomestic reptiles. These results justify more detailed epidemiological studies on the role of the Asian house gecko in sporadic salmonellosis and development of evidence-based strategies to decrease this potential zoonotic hazard.

Establishing forest pest detection systems in South Pacific and Australia

The aim of the project is to reduce the risk of serious damage by exotic pests to the valuable timber resources of Fiji, Vanuatu and Australia by establishing efficient detection systems for target pests in high hazard sites. In particular, the project aims to minimise losses in the valuable plantations of Fiji and the emerging plantation industry of Vanuatu. This is part of a 'neighbourhood watch' approach to incursion management that will benefit all regional countries, including Australia.

Using genomic data to make indirect (and unauthorized) estimates of disease risk

The number of genetic factors associated with common human traits and disease is increasing rapidly, and the general public is utilizing affordable, direct-to-consumer genetic tests. The results of these tests are often in the public domain. A combination of factors has increased the potential for the indirect estimation of an individual's risk for a particular trait. Here we explain the basic principals underlying risk estimation which allowed us to test the ability to make an indirect risk estimation from genetic data by imputing Dr. James Watson's redacted apolipoprotein E gene (APOE) information. The principles underlying risk prediction from genetic data have been well known and applied for many decades, however, the recent increase in genomic knowledge, and advances in mathematical and statistical techniques and computational power, make it relatively easy to make an accurate but indirect estimation of risk. There is a current hazard for indirect risk estimation that is relevant not only to the subject but also to individuals related to the subject; this risk will likely increase as more detailed genomic data and better computational tools become available.

Anthropometric measures of obesity-their association with type 2 diabetes and hypertension across ethnic groups

Clinical trials have shown that weight reduction with lifestyles can delay or prevent diabetes and reduce blood pressure. An appropriate definition of obesity using anthropometric measures is useful in predicting diabetes and hypertension at the population level. However, there is debate on which of the measures of obesity is best or most strongly associated with diabetes and hypertension and on what are the optimal cut-off values for body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) in this regard. The aims of the study were 1) to compare the strength of the association for undiagnosed or newly diagnosed diabetes (or hypertension) with anthropometric measures of obesity in people of Asian origin, 2) to detect ethnic differences in the association of undiagnosed diabetes with obesity, 3) to identify ethnic- and sex-specific change point values of BMI and WC for changes in the prevalence of diabetes and 4) to evaluate the ethnic-specific WC cutoff values proposed by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) in 2005 for central obesity. The study population comprised 28 435 men and 35 198 women, ≥ 25 years of age, from 39 cohorts participating in the DECODA and DECODE studies, including 5 Asian Indian (n = 13 537), 3 Mauritian Indian (n = 4505) and Mauritian Creole (n = 1075), 8 Chinese (n =10 801), 1 Filipino (n = 3841), 7 Japanese (n = 7934), 1 Mongolian (n = 1991), and 14 European (n = 20 979) studies. The prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and central obesity was estimated, using descriptive statistics, and the differences were determined with the χ2 test. The odds ratios (ORs) or  coefficients (from the logistic model) and hazard ratios (HRs, from the Cox model to interval censored data) for BMI, WC, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-stature ratio (WSR) were estimated for diabetes and hypertension. The differences between BMI and WC, WHR or WSR were compared, applying paired homogeneity tests (Wald statistics with 1 df). Hierarchical three-level Bayesian change point analysis, adjusting for age, was applied to identify the most likely cut-off/change point values for BMI and WC in association with previously undiagnosed diabetes. The ORs for diabetes in men (women) with BMI, WC, WHR and WSR were 1.52 (1.59), 1.54 (1.70), 1.53 (1.50) and 1.62 (1.70), respectively and the corresponding ORs for hypertension were 1.68 (1.55), 1.66 (1.51), 1.45 (1.28) and 1.63 (1.50). For diabetes the OR for BMI did not differ from that for WC or WHR, but was lower than that for WSR (p = 0.001) in men while in women the ORs were higher for WC and WSR than for BMI (both p < 0.05). Hypertension was more strongly associated with BMI than with WHR in men (p < 0.001) and most strongly with BMI than with WHR (p < 0.001), WSR (p < 0.01) and WC (p < 0.05) in women. The HRs for incidence of diabetes and hypertension did not differ between BMI and the other three central obesity measures in Mauritian Indians and Mauritian Creoles during follow-ups of 5, 6 and 11 years. The prevalence of diabetes was highest in Asian Indians, lowest in Europeans and intermediate in others, given the same BMI or WC category. The  coefficients for diabetes in BMI (kg/m2) were (men/women): 0.34/0.28, 0.41/0.43, 0.42/0.61, 0.36/0.59 and 0.33/0.49 for Asian Indian, Chinese, Japanese, Mauritian Indian and European (overall homogeneity test: p > 0.05 in men and p < 0.001 in women). Similar results were obtained in WC (cm). Asian Indian women had lower  coefficients than women of other ethnicities. The change points for BMI were 29.5, 25.6, 24.0, 24.0 and 21.5 in men and 29.4, 25.2, 24.9, 25.3 and 22.5 (kg/m2) in women of European, Chinese, Mauritian Indian, Japanese, and Asian Indian descent. The change points for WC were 100, 85, 79 and 82 cm in men and 91, 82, 82 and 76 cm in women of European, Chinese, Mauritian Indian, and Asian Indian. The prevalence of central obesity using the 2005 IDF definition was higher in Japanese men but lower in Japanese women than in their Asian counterparts. The prevalence of central obesity was 52 times higher in Japanese men but 0.8 times lower in Japanese women compared to the National Cholesterol Education Programme definition. The findings suggest that both BMI and WC predicted diabetes and hypertension equally well in all ethnic groups. At the same BMI or WC level, the prevalence of diabetes was highest in Asian Indians, lowest in Europeans and intermediate in others. Ethnic- and sex-specific change points of BMI and WC should be considered in setting diagnostic criteria for obesity to detect undiagnosed or newly diagnosed diabetes.

Remote sensing to implement an effective pest management strategy for canegrubs

Develop a remote-sensing system that can identify canegrub infestations and provide early- warning to growers via the internet.