Freshwater resources

This is Chapter 3 of the report of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It describes the risks posed by climate change to freshwater resources and their management.

Association between sucrose intake and risk of overweight and obesity in a prospective sub-cohort of EPIC-Norfolk

Objective: The objective of this study was to investigate associations between sugar intake and overweight using dietary biomarkers in the Norfolk cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Norfolk). Design: Prospective cohort study Setting: European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) in the UK, recruitment between 1993 and 1997. Subjects: 1734 participants (39 – 77 years). Sucrose intake was assessed using 7-day diaries. Baseline spot urine samples were analysed for sucrose by GC-MS. Sucrose concentration adjusted by specific gravity was used as biomarker for intake. Regression analyses were used to investigate associations between sucrose intake and risk of BMI > 25 kg/m2 after three years of follow-up. Results: After three years of follow-up, mean BMI was 26.8 kg/m2. Self-reported sucrose intake was significantly positively associated with biomarker. Associations between biomarker and BMI were positive (β=0.25; 95% CI: 0.08; 0.43), while they were inverse when using self-reported dietary data (β=-1.40; 95% CI: -1.81; -0.99). Age- and sex-adjusted OR for BMI > 25 kg/m2 in participants in the fifth vs. first quintile was 1.54 (95% CI: 1.12; 2.12; pTrend=0.003,) when using biomarker and 0.56 (95% CI: 0.40; 0.77; pTrend<0.001) with self-reported dietary data. Conclusions: Our results suggest that sucrose measured by objective biomarker but not self-reported sucrose intake is positively associated with body mass index. Future studies should consider use of objective biomarkers of sucrose intake.

A comparison of methods for treatment selection in seamless phase II/III clinical trials incorporating information on short-term endpoints

In an adaptive seamless phase II/III clinical trial interim analysis, data are used for treatment selection, enabling resources to be focused on comparison of more effective treatment(s) with a control. In this paper, we compare two methods recently proposed to enable use of short-term endpoint data for decision-making at the interim analysis. The comparison focuses on the power and the probability of correctly identifying the most promising treatment. We show that the choice of method depends on how well short-term data predict the best treatment, which may be measured by the correlation between treatment effects on short- and long-term endpoints.

New insights into the structure of exotic nuclei using the RISING active stopper

This conference paper outlines the operation and some of the preliminary physics results using the GSI RISING active stopper. Data are presented from an experiment using combined isomer and beta‐delayed gamma‐ray spectroscopy to study low‐lying spectral and decay properties of heavy‐neutron‐rich nuclei around A∼190 produced following the relativistic projectile fragmentation of 208Pb primary beam. The response of the RISING active stopper detector is demonstrated for both the implantation of heavy secondary fragments and in‐situ decay of beta‐particles. Beta‐delayed gamma‐ray spectroscopy following decays of the neutron‐rich nucleus 194Re is presented to demonstrate the experimental performance of the set‐up. The resulting information inferred from excited states in the W and Os daughter nuclei is compared with results from Skyrme Hartree‐Fock predictions of the evolution of nuclear shape.

The implications of climate change for the water environment in England

This paper reviews the implications of climate change for the water environment and its management in England. There is a large literature, but most studies have looked at flow volumes or nutrients and none have considered explicitly the implications of climate change for the delivery of water management objectives. Studies have been undertaken in a small number of locations. Studies have used observations from the past to infer future changes, and have used numerical simulation models with climate change scenarios. The literature indicates that climate change poses risks to the delivery of water management objectives, but that these risks depend on local catchment and water body conditions. Climate change affects the status of water bodies, and it affects the effectiveness of measures to manage the water environment and meet policy objectives. The future impact of climate change on the water environment and its management is uncertain. Impacts are dependent on changes in the duration of dry spells and frequency of ‘flushing’ events, which are highly uncertain and not included in current climate scenarios. There is a good qualitative understanding of ways in which systems may change, but interactions between components of the water environment are poorly understood. Predictive models are only available for some components, and model parametric and structural uncertainty has not been evaluated. The impacts of climate change depend on other pressures on the water environment in a catchment, and also on the management interventions that are undertaken to achieve water management objectives. The paper has also developed a series of consistent conceptual models describing the implications of climate change for pressures on the water environment, based around the source-pathway-receptor concept. They provide a framework for a systematic assessment across catchments and pressures of the implications of climate change for the water environment and its management.

A palaeoenvironmental context for terminal upper Palaeolithic and Mesolithic activity in the Colne Valley: offsite records contemporary with occupation at three ways Wharf, Uxbridge

Multi-proxy analyses from floodplain deposits in the Colne Valley, southern England, have provided a palaeoenvironmental context for the immediately adjacent Terminal Upper Palaeolithic and Early Mesolithic site of Three Ways Wharf. These deposits show the transition from an open cool environment to fully developed heterogeneous floodplain vegetation during the Early Mesolithic. Several distinct phases of burning are shown to have occurred that are chronologically contemporary with the local archaeological record. The floodplain itself is shown to have supported a number of rare Urwaldrelikt insect species implying human manipulation of the floodplain at this time must have been limited or episodic. By the Late Mesolithic a reed-sedge swamp had developed across much of the floodplain, within which repeated burning of the in situ vegetation took place. This indicates deliberate land management practices utilising fire, comparable with findings from other floodplain sequences in southern Britain. With similar sedimentary sequences known to exist across the Colne Valley, often closely associated with contemporary archaeology, the potential for placing the archaeological record within a spatially explicit palaeoenvironmental context is great.

Acrylamide in potato crisps prepared from 20 UK-grown varieties: effects of variety and tuber storage time

Twenty varieties of field-grown potato were stored for 2 months and 6 months at 8 °C. Mean acrylamide contents in crisps prepared from all varieties at both storage times ranged from 131 μg per kg in Verdi to 5360 μg per kg in Pentland Dell. In contrast to previous studies, the longer storage period did not affect acrylamide formation significantly for most varieties, the exceptions being Innovator, where acrylamide formation increased, and Saturna, where it decreased. Four of the five varieties designated as suitable for crisping produced crisps with acrylamide levels below the European Commission indicative value of 1000 μg per kg (Saturna, Lady Rosetta, Lady Claire, and Verdi); the exception was Hermes. Two varieties more often used for French fries, Markies and Fontane, also produced crisps with less than 1000 μg per kg acrylamide. Correlations between acrylamide, its precursors and crisp colour are described, and the implications of the results for production of potato crisps are discussed.

The lethal and sub-lethal consequences of entomopathogenic nematode infestation and exposure for adult pine weevils, Hylobius abietis (Coleoptera: Curculionidae)

Entomopathogenic nematodes (EPN) frequently kill their host within 1–2 days, and interest in EPN focuses mainly on their lethality. However, insects may take longer to die, or may fail to die despite being infected, but little is known about the effects of EPN infection on insects, other than death. Here we investigate both lethal and sub-lethal effects of infection by two EPN species, Steinernema carpocapsae and Heterorhabditis downesi, on adults of the large pine weevil, Hylobius abietis. Following 12 h nematode–weevil contact in peat, S. carpocapsae killed a significantly higher proportion of weevils (87–93%) than H. downesi (43–57%) at all concentrations tested. Less than 10% of weevils were dead within 2 days, and weevils continued to die for up to 10 days after exposure (LT50 of 3 days or more). In a separate experiment, live weevils dissected 6 days after a 24 h exposure to nematodes on filter paper harbored encapsulated and dead nematodes, showing that weevils could defend themselves against infection. Some live weevils also harbored live nematodes 6 days after they had been removed from the nematode infested medium. Feeding by weevils was not affected by infection with, or exposure to, either species of EPN. We discuss these results in relation to the use of EPN in biological control against H. abietis.

Organic soils promote the efficacy of entomopathogenic nematodes, with different foraging strategies, in the control of a major forest pest: a meta-analysis of field trial data

The large pine weevil, Hylobius abietis, is a serious pest of reforestation in northern Europe. However, weevils developing in stumps of felled trees can be killed by entomopathogenic nematodes applied to soil around the stumps and this method of control has been used at an operational level in the UK and Ireland. We investigated the factors affecting the efficacy of entomopathogenic nematodes in the control of the large pine weevil spanning 10 years of field experiments, by means of a meta-analysis of published studies and previously unpublished data. We investigated two species with different foraging strategies, the ‘ambusher’ Steinernema carpocapsae, the species most often used at an operational level, and the ‘cruiser’ Heterorhabditis downesi. Efficacy was measured both by percentage reduction in numbers of adults emerging relative to untreated controls and by percentage parasitism of developing weevils in the stump. Both measures were significantly higher with H. downesi compared to S. carpocapsae. General linear models were constructed for each nematode species separately, using substrate type (peat versus mineral soil) and tree species (pine versus spruce) as fixed factors, weevil abundance (from the mean of untreated stumps) as a covariate and percentage reduction or percentage parasitism as the response variable. For both nematode species, the most significant and parsimonious models showed that substrate type was consistently, but not always, the most significant variable, whether replicates were at a site or stump level, and that peaty soils significantly promote the efficacy of both species. Efficacy, in terms of percentage parasitism, was not density dependent.

Effects of water availability on free amino acids, sugars, and acrylamide-forming potential in potato

Irrigation is used frequently in potato cultivation to maximize yield, but water availability may also affect the composition of the crop, with implications for processing properties and food safety. Five varieties of potatoes, including drought-tolerant and -sensitive types, which had been grown with and without irrigation, were analyzed to show the effect of water supply on concentrations of free asparagine, other free amino acids, and sugars and on the acrylamide-forming potential of the tubers. Two varieties were also analyzed under more severe drought stress in a glasshouse. Water availability had profound effects on tuber free amino acid and sugar concentrations, and it was concluded that potato farmers should irrigate only if necessary to maintain the health and yield of the crop, because irrigation may increase the acrylamide-forming potential of potatoes. Even mild drought stress caused significant changes in composition, but these differed from those caused by more extreme drought stress. Free proline concentration, for example, increased in the field-grown potatoes of one variety from 7.02 mmol/kg with irrigation to 104.58 mmol/kg without irrigation, whereas free asparagine concentration was not affected significantly in the field but almost doubled from 132.03 to 242.26 mmol/kg in response to more severe drought stress in the glasshouse. Furthermore, the different genotypes were affected in dissimilar fashion by the same treatment, indicating that there is no single, unifying potato tuber drought stress response.

Estimation after subpopulation selection in adaptive seamless trials

During the development of new therapies, it is not uncommon to test whether a new treatment works better than the existing treatment for all patients who suffer from a condition (full population) or for a subset of the full population (subpopulation). One approach that may be used for this objective is to have two separate trials, where in the first trial, data are collected to determine if the new treatment benefits the full population or the subpopulation. The second trial is a confirmatory trial to test the new treatment in the population selected in the first trial. In this paper, we consider the more efficient two-stage adaptive seamless designs (ASDs), where in stage 1, data are collected to select the population to test in stage 2. In stage 2, additional data are collected to perform confirmatory analysis for the selected population. Unlike the approach that uses two separate trials, for ASDs, stage 1 data are also used in the confirmatory analysis. Although ASDs are efficient, using stage 1 data both for selection and confirmatory analysis introduces selection bias and consequently statistical challenges in making inference. We will focus on point estimation for such trials. In this paper, we describe the extent of bias for estimators that ignore multiple hypotheses and selecting the population that is most likely to give positive trial results based on observed stage 1 data. We then derive conditionally unbiased estimators and examine their mean squared errors for different scenarios.

Flexible selection of a single treatment incorporating short-term endpoint information in a phase II/III clinical trial

Seamless phase II/III clinical trials in which an experimental treatment is selected at an interim analysis have been the focus of much recent research interest. Many of the methods proposed are based on the group sequential approach. This paper considers designs of this type in which the treatment selection can be based on short-term endpoint information for more patients than have primary endpoint data available. We show that in such a case, the familywise type I error rate may be inflated if previously proposed group sequential methods are used and the treatment selection rule is not specified in advance. A method is proposed to avoid this inflation by considering the treatment selection that maximises the conditional error given the data available at the interim analysis. A simulation study is reported that illustrates the type I error rate inflation and compares the power of the new approach with two other methods: a combination testing approach and a group sequential method that does not use the short-term endpoint data, both of which also strongly control the type I error rate. The new method is also illustrated through application to a study in Alzheimer's disease. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.