Extent of non-publication in cohorts of studies approved by research ethics committees or included in trial registries

BACKGROUND: The synthesis of published research in systematic reviews is essential when providing evidence to inform clinical and health policy decision-making. However, the validity of systematic reviews is threatened if journal publications represent a biased selection of all studies that have been conducted (dissemination bias). To investigate the extent of dissemination bias we conducted a systematic review that determined the proportion of studies published as peer-reviewed journal articles and investigated factors associated with full publication in cohorts of studies (i) approved by research ethics committees (RECs) or (ii) included in trial registries. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Four bibliographic databases were searched for methodological research projects (MRPs) without limitations for publication year, language or study location. The searches were supplemented by handsearching the references of included MRPs. We estimated the proportion of studies published using prediction intervals (PI) and a random effects meta-analysis. Pooled odds ratios (OR) were used to express associations between study characteristics and journal publication. Seventeen MRPs (23 publications) evaluated cohorts of studies approved by RECs; the proportion of published studies had a PI between 22% and 72% and the weighted pooled proportion when combining estimates would be 46.2% (95% CI 40.2%-52.4%, I2 = 94.4%). Twenty-two MRPs (22 publications) evaluated cohorts of studies included in trial registries; the PI of the proportion published ranged from 13% to 90% and the weighted pooled proportion would be 54.2% (95% CI 42.0%-65.9%, I2 = 98.9%). REC-approved studies with statistically significant results (compared with those without statistically significant results) were more likely to be published (pooled OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.2-3.5). Phase-III trials were also more likely to be published than phase II trials (pooled OR 2.0; 95% CI 1.6-2.5). The probability of publication within two years after study completion ranged from 7% to 30%. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial part of the studies approved by RECs or included in trial registries remains unpublished. Due to the large heterogeneity a prediction of the publication probability for a future study is very uncertain. Non-publication of research is not a random process, e.g., it is associated with the direction of study findings. Our findings suggest that the dissemination of research findings is biased.

Studies on survival, biological activities and behavior of Biomphalaria glabrata, the host snail of Schistosomiasis, submitted to increased hydrostatic pressure: a technique

To study changes in survival, in biological activities and behavior of planorbids submitted to increased hydrostatic pressure, we developed a technique using two transparent chambers and a hydraulic piston. The apparatus permitted renewal of the liquid medium without substantial variations in pressure, thus eliminating excretion products and maintaining the desired O2 level and thereby permitting us to evaluate the effects of pressure independently of the occurrence of anoxia. Pressure was maintained without any contact of the liquid medium with compressed air, a situation which reproduced with relative fidelity what occurs in nature and assured the presence of the same amounts of gases in the two observation chambers (Control and Experimental). Biomphalaria glabrata was found to be able to survive at least 48 hours when submitted to 49.02 x 10**4 Pa (equivalent to a water depth of 48.8 m), continuing to day egg masses and showing few behavioral changes when compared with the control group.

An outbreak of american cutaneous leishmaniasis (Leishmania braziliensis braziliensis) in a periurban area of Rio de Janeiro city, Brazil: clinical and epidemiological studies

From July 1984 to September 1986, 105 cases of American cutaneous leishmaniasis were studied in a locality closely situated to an urbanized area of the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Settement in this area was established at least 20 years ago but the first cases were noted six months prior to the beginning of this study. Cases were almost exlusively cutaneous and ulcerated, with one to six months of evolution. Montenegro's skin tests were positive in all cases and anti-Leishmania antibodies were detected by indirect immunofluorescence test in 74.3% of the patients. Parasites were demonstrated in 69.5% of cases. Domestic animals were easily found infected; 32% of the examined dogs and 30.8% of the examined equines were positive to the presence of Leishmania in cutaneous ulcerated lesions. Parasite isolates from human, dog andequines were immunologically characterized and identified as L. b. braziliensis. 73,0% of the sandfly population were Lutzomyia intermedia mainly caught on human baits and on domestic animals. Our observations suggest that this is an area of recent established L. b. braziliensis infection and that transmission probably occurs indoors or outdoors close to the houses.

Ultrastructural studies of the hemocytes of Panstrongylus megistus (Hemiptera: Reduvidae)

Ultrastructural analyses revealed the presence of six hemocyte types in the hemolymph of Panstrogylus megistus, partially confirming our previous results obtained through light microscopy. Prohemocytes: small, round hemocytes with a thin cytoplasm layer, espcieally rich in free ribosomes and poor in membranous systems. Plasmatocytes: polymorphic cells, whose cytoplasm contains many lysosomes and a well developed rough endoplasmic reticulum (RER).They are extremely phagocytic. Sometimes, they show a large vacuolation. Granulocytes: granular hemocytes whose granules show different degrees of electrondensity. Most of them, have an internal structuration. Coagulocytes: oval or elongated hemocytes, which show pronounced perinuclear cisternae as normally observed in coagulocytes. The cytoplasm is usually electrondense, poor in membranous systems and contains many labile granules. Oenocytoids: large and very stable hemocytes, whose homogeneous cytoplasme is rich in loose ribosomes and poor in membranous systems. Adipohemocytes: large cells, containing several characteristic lipid droplets. The cytoplasm is also rich in glycogen, RER and large mitochondria. The total and differential hemocyte count (THC and DHC) were also calculated for this reduviid. THC increases from 2,900 hemocytes/cubic millimeter of hemolymph in the 4th intar to 4,350 in the 5th and then, decreases to 1,950 in the adults. Plasmatocytes and coagulocytes are the predominant hemocyte types.

Studies on male genitalia of sarcophagidae (Diptera) based on scanning electron microscope observations

Male genitalia of Oxyvinia exicisa (Lopes), Oxysarcodexia thomax (Walker), O. fluminensis Lopes, Sarcodexia lambens (Wiedemann), Peckia chrysostoma (Wiedemann) and Liopygia ruficornis (Fabricius) were studied based on scanning electron microscope photography. Some important details were evidentiated with this method.

Menarche, menopause, and breast cancer risk: individual participant meta-analysis, including 118 964 women with breast cancer from 117 epidemiological studies.

BACKGROUND: Menarche and menopause mark the onset and cessation, respectively, of ovarian activity associated with reproduction, and affect breast cancer risk. Our aim was to assess the strengths of their effects and determine whether they depend on characteristics of the tumours or the affected women. METHODS: Individual data from 117 epidemiological studies, including 118 964 women with invasive breast cancer and 306 091 without the disease, none of whom had used menopausal hormone therapy, were included in the analyses. We calculated adjusted relative risks (RRs) associated with menarche and menopause for breast cancer overall, and by tumour histology and by oestrogen receptor expression. FINDINGS: Breast cancer risk increased by a factor of 1·050 (95% CI 1·044-1·057; p<0·0001) for every year younger at menarche, and independently by a smaller amount (1·029, 1·025-1·032; p<0·0001), for every year older at menopause. Premenopausal women had a greater risk of breast cancer than postmenopausal women of an identical age (RR at age 45-54 years 1·43, 1·33-1·52, p<0·001). All three of these associations were attenuated by increasing adiposity among postmenopausal women, but did not vary materially by women's year of birth, ethnic origin, childbearing history, smoking, alcohol consumption, or hormonal contraceptive use. All three associations were stronger for lobular than for ductal tumours (p<0·006 for each comparison). The effect of menopause in women of an identical age and trends by age at menopause were stronger for oestrogen receptor-positive disease than for oestrogen receptor-negative disease (p<0·01 for both comparisons). INTERPRETATION: The effects of menarche and menopause on breast cancer risk might not be acting merely by lengthening women's total number of reproductive years. Endogenous ovarian hormones are more relevant for oestrogen receptor-positive disease than for oestrogen receptor-negative disease and for lobular than for ductal tumours. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK.

Bayesian Inference in the Time Varying Cointegration Model

There are both theoretical and empirical reasons for believing that the parameters of macroeconomic models may vary over time. However, work with time-varying parameter models has largely involved Vector autoregressions (VARs), ignoring cointegration. This is despite the fact that cointegration plays an important role in informing macroeconomists on a range of issues. In this paper we develop time varying parameter models which permit cointegration. Time-varying parameter VARs (TVP-VARs) typically use state space representations to model the evolution of parameters. In this paper, we show that it is not sensible to use straightforward extensions of TVP-VARs when allowing for cointegration. Instead we develop a specification which allows for the cointegrating space to evolve over time in a manner comparable to the random walk variation used with TVP-VARs. The properties of our approach are investigated before developing a method of posterior simulation. We use our methods in an empirical investigation involving a permanent/transitory variance decomposition for inflation.

Memòria justificativa del treball realitzat durant l’estada al departament de Women`s Studies (Universitat de Wisconsin-Madison )

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada al departament de Women’s Studies de la Universitat de Wisconsin, Estats Units, entre agost i novembre del 2007. Aquesta recerca està directament relacionada amb el desenvolupament d’una tesi doctoral sobre la socialització de les dones víctimes de violència de gènere. En el transcurs d’aquesta estada es van analitzar investigacions de qualitat científica sobre socialització de les dones víctimes de violència de gènere realitzades als Estats Units; es va participar en jornades, seminaris i conferències sobre violència de gènere; i es van recollir recursos i mesures, proposats per diferents moviments socials, per atendre a les víctimes i prevenir la violència de gènere. Entre els resultats obtinguts de la recerca cal destacar que les investigacions més recents sobre violència de gènere coincideixen en afirmar que es tracta d’una problemàtica vinculada als nostres aprenentatges socials. Trobem un gran nombre de recerques que han treballat sobre les causes per les quals les dones romanen en relacions de violència o reincideixen. Generalment aquestes son causes estructurals (factors econòmics, fills o filles en comú, falta de recolzament social, etc.), o bé emocionals (el fet d’estar enamorades). Aquestes recerques mostren un buit, el qual serà treballat en una tesi doctoral, un cop superades les barreres estructurals quins son els motius que dificulten la finalització de la relació de violència? Quins aspectes hem de treballar per trencar els vincles afectius i l’enamorament?

Memòria justificativa del treball realitzat durant l'estada a la University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA)

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a la Graduate School of Education and Information Studies (GSEIS) de la University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA), Estats Units, entre gener i juny del 2007. En el context d’elaboració d’una futura tesi doctoral sobre la metodologia comunicativa crítica i la interacció persona-ordinador, la intenció ha estat aprofundir des d'una perspectiva internacional. La GSEIS i la UCLA en general conta amb innumerables recursos bibliogràfics així com amb professorat de reconegut prestigi internacional en la recerca vinculada a la barreja de temes com l'educació, la inclusió i la transformació social, la Comunicació, les TIC i el disseny de la Interacció Persona Ordinador; integració de disciplines en la que es mou la meva tesi doctoral. La possibilitat d'accedir a la Young Research Library, així com l'assistència a diverses conferències relacionades amb el meu àmbit d'estudi, la celebració de diverses tutories amb professorat de la GSEIS i d'altres departaments de la UCLA, i la invitació a participar del seminari de doctorat del professor Douglas Kellner, han contribuït de forma remarcable al meu projecte amb: aportacions de la literatura internacional i nombrosos exemples de bones pràctiques de projectes vinculats al Participatory Design com a metodologia en si mateixa desvinculada del Disseny Centrat en l'Usuari, un dels aspectes centrals de la meva tesi. Amb tot això vaig poder reforçar i desenvolupar quatre dels capítols de la meva dissertació, concretament els relacionats amb el context social i metodològic, i els que presenten el disseny de la Interacció Persona ordinador des d'un enfocament general així com el que es centra en el Disseny participatiu i les seves vinculacions amb la metodologia comunicativa crítica.

Stochastic Search Variable Selection in Vector Error Correction Models with an Application to a Model of the UK Macroeconomy

This paper develops methods for Stochastic Search Variable Selection (currently popular with regression and Vector Autoregressive models) for Vector Error Correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner. We apply our methods to a large UK macroeconomic model.

The Impact of Higher Education Institution-Firm Knowledge Links on Firm-level Productivity in Britain

This paper estimates whether both sourcing knowledge from and/or cooperating on innovation with HEIs (Higher Education Institutions)1 impacts on establishment-level total factor productivity (TFP) using a dataset created by merging the UK government’s Community Innovation Survey (CIS) with the Annual Respondents Database (ARD). It also considers whether higher graduate employment (as a measure of human capital) also impacts positively on TFP at the establishment-level. Many studies have investigated the relationship between university-firm knowledge links and innovation (see, for example, Mansfield, 1991; Becker, 2003; Thorn et al, 2007). Most of these studies find a positive impact. Fewer studies have investigated the impact of university-firm knowledge links on productivity. Belderbos et al. (2004), using the Dutch CIS, find that cooperation with universities has no statistically significant impact on the growth of labour productivity. Medda et al. (2005) find no statistically significant effect of collaborative research undertaken by Italian manufacturing firms and universities on the growth of TFP. Arvanitis et al. (2008), using Swiss data, show that university-firm knowledge and technology transfer has both a direct impact on labour productivity and an indirect impact through its positive impact on innovation. In sum, there is as yet no clear consensus as to the impact of university-firm knowledge links on productivity.

The Importance of Graduates for the Scottish Economy: A “Micro-to-Macro” Approach

There have been numerous attempts to assess the overall impact of Higher Education Institutions on regional economies in the UK and elsewhere. There are two disparate approaches focussing on: demand-side effects of HEIs, exerted through universities’ expenditures within the local economy; HEIs’ contribution to the “knowledge economy”. However, neither approach seeks to measure the impact on regional economies that HEIs exert through the enhanced productivity of their graduates. We address this lacuna and explore the system-wide impact of the graduates on the regional economy. An extensive and sophisticated literature suggests that graduates enjoy a significant wage premium, often interpreted as reflecting their greater productivity relative to non-graduates. If this is so there is a clear and direct supply-side impact of HEI activities on regional economies through the employment of their graduates. However, there is some dispute over the extent to which the graduate wage premium reflects innate abilities rather than the impact of higher education per se. We use an HEI-disaggregated computable general equilibrium model of Scotland to estimate the impact of the growing proportion of graduates in the Scottish labour force that is implied by the current participation rate and demographic change, taking the graduate wage premium in Scotland as an indicator of productivity enhancement. We conduct a range of sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of our results. While the detailed results do, of course, vary with alternative assumptions about future graduate retention rates and the size of the graduate wage premium, for example, they do suggest that the long-term supply-side impacts of HEIs provide a significant boost to regional GDP. Furthermore, the results suggest that the supply-side impacts of HEIs are likely to be more important than the expenditure impacts that are the focus of most “impact” studies.