Traffic queue estimation for metered motorway on-ramps through use of loop detector time occupancies

The primary objective of this study is to develop a robust queue estimation algorithm for motorway on-ramps. Real-time queue information is a vital input for dynamic queue management on metered on-ramps. Accurate and reliable queue information enables the management of on-ramp queue in an adaptive manner to the actual traffic queue size and thus minimises the adverse impacts of queue flush while increasing the benefit of ramp metering. The proposed algorithm is developed based on the Kalman filter framework. The fundamental conservation model is used to estimate the system state (queue size) with the flow-in and flow-out measurements. This projection results are updated with the measurement equation using the time occupancies from mid-link and link-entrance loop detectors. This study also proposes a novel single point correction method. This method resets the estimated system state to eliminate the counting errors that accumulate over time. In the performance evaluation, the proposed algorithm demonstrated accurate and reliable performances and consistently outperformed the benchmarked Single Occupancy Kalman filter (SOKF) method. The improvements over SOKF are 62% and 63% in average in terms of the estimation accuracy (MAE) and reliability (RMSE), respectively. The benefit of the innovative concepts of the algorithm is well justified by the improved estimation performance in congested ramp traffic conditions where long queues may significantly compromise the benchmark algorithm’s performance.

A Kalman filter based queue estimation algorithm using time occupancies for motorway on-ramps

The primary objective of this study is to develop a robust queue estimation algorithm for motorway on-ramps. Real-time queue information is the most vital input for a dynamic queue management that can treat long queues on metered on-ramps more sophistically. The proposed algorithm is developed based on the Kalman filter framework. The fundamental conservation model is used to estimate the system state (queue size) with the flow-in and flow-out measurements. This projection results are updated with the measurement equation using the time occupancies from mid-link and link-entrance loop detectors. This study also proposes a novel single point correction method. This method resets the estimated system state to eliminate the counting errors that accumulate over time. In the performance evaluation, the proposed algorithm demonstrated accurate and reliable performances and consistently outperformed the benchmarked Single Occupancy Kalman filter (SOKF) method. The improvements over SOKF are 62% and 63% in average in terms of the estimation accuracy (MAE) and reliability (RMSE), respectively. The benefit of the innovative concepts of the algorithm is well justified by the improved estimation performance in the congested ramp traffic conditions where long queues may significantly compromise the benchmark algorithm’s performance.

Assessing the Impact of Sensor Accuracy and Sensor Choice on Air Traffic Conflict Risk Estimation using Risk-Ratio Concepts

One of the primary desired capabilities of any future air traffic separation management system is the ability to provide early conflict detection and resolution effectively and efficiently. In this paper, we consider the risk of conflict as a primary measurement to be used for early conflict detection. This paper focuses on developing a novel approach to assess the impact of different measurement uncertainty models on the estimated risk of conflict. The measurement uncertainty model can be used to represent different sensor accuracy and sensor choices. Our study demonstrates the value of modelling measurement uncertainty in the conflict risk estimation problem and presents techniques providing a means of assessing sensor requirements to achieve desired conflict detection performance.

Permeability estimation conditioned to geophysical downhole log data in sandstones of the northern Galilee Basin, Queensland : methods and application

This study uses borehole geophysical log data of sonic velocity and electrical resistivity to estimate permeability in sandstones in the northern Galilee Basin, Queensland. The prior estimates of permeability are calculated according to the deterministic log–log linear empirical correlations between electrical resistivity and measured permeability. Both negative and positive relationships are influenced by the clay content. The prior estimates of permeability are updated in a Bayesian framework for three boreholes using both the cokriging (CK) method and a normal linear regression (NLR) approach to infer the likelihood function. The results show that the mean permeability estimated from the CK-based Bayesian method is in better agreement with the measured permeability when a fairly apparent linear relationship exists between the logarithm of permeability and sonic velocity. In contrast, the NLR-based Bayesian approach gives better estimates of permeability for boreholes where no linear relationship exists between logarithm permeability and sonic velocity.

Benefiting white noise in developing feedforward active noise control systems

In many applications of active noise control (ANC), an online secondary path modelling method using a white noise as a training signal is required to ensure convergence of the system. The modelling accuracy and the convergence rate increase when a white noise with larger variance is used, however larger the variance increases the residual noise, which decreases performance of the system. The proposed algorithm uses the advantages of the white noise with larger variance to model the secondary path, but the injection is stopped at the optimum point to increase performance of the system. In this approach, instead of continuous injection of the white noise, a sudden change in secondary path during the operation makes the algorithm to reactivate injection of the white noise to adjust the secondary path estimation. Comparative simulation results shown in this paper indicate effectiveness of the proposed method.

Speaker diarization : "who spoke when"

Speaker diarization is the process of annotating an input audio with information that attributes temporal regions of the audio signal to their respective sources, which may include both speech and non-speech events. For speech regions, the diarization system also specifies the locations of speaker boundaries and assign relative speaker labels to each homogeneous segment of speech. In short, speaker diarization systems effectively answer the question of ‘who spoke when’. There are several important applications for speaker diarization technology, such as facilitating speaker indexing systems to allow users to directly access the relevant segments of interest within a given audio, and assisting with other downstream processes such as summarizing and parsing. When combined with automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems, the metadata extracted from a speaker diarization system can provide complementary information for ASR transcripts including the location of speaker turns and relative speaker segment labels, making the transcripts more readable. Speaker diarization output can also be used to localize the instances of specific speakers to pool data for model adaptation, which in turn boosts transcription accuracies. Speaker diarization therefore plays an important role as a preliminary step in automatic transcription of audio data. The aim of this work is to improve the usefulness and practicality of speaker diarization technology, through the reduction of diarization error rates. In particular, this research is focused on the segmentation and clustering stages within a diarization system. Although particular emphasis is placed on the broadcast news audio domain and systems developed throughout this work are also trained and tested on broadcast news data, the techniques proposed in this dissertation are also applicable to other domains including telephone conversations and meetings audio. Three main research themes were pursued: heuristic rules for speaker segmentation, modelling uncertainty in speaker model estimates, and modelling uncertainty in eigenvoice speaker modelling. The use of heuristic approaches for the speaker segmentation task was first investigated, with emphasis placed on minimizing missed boundary detections. A set of heuristic rules was proposed, to govern the detection and heuristic selection of candidate speaker segment boundaries. A second pass, using the same heuristic algorithm with a smaller window, was also proposed with the aim of improving detection of boundaries around short speaker segments. Compared to single threshold based methods, the proposed heuristic approach was shown to provide improved segmentation performance, leading to a reduction in the overall diarization error rate. Methods to model the uncertainty in speaker model estimates were developed, to address the difficulties associated with making segmentation and clustering decisions with limited data in the speaker segments. The Bayes factor, derived specifically for multivariate Gaussian speaker modelling, was introduced to account for the uncertainty of the speaker model estimates. The use of the Bayes factor also enabled the incorporation of prior information regarding the audio to aid segmentation and clustering decisions. The idea of modelling uncertainty in speaker model estimates was also extended to the eigenvoice speaker modelling framework for the speaker clustering task. Building on the application of Bayesian approaches to the speaker diarization problem, the proposed approach takes into account the uncertainty associated with the explicit estimation of the speaker factors. The proposed decision criteria, based on Bayesian theory, was shown to generally outperform their non- Bayesian counterparts.

Risk modelling in quality clinical registries : Monitoring lesion treatment failure rate in percutaneous coronary interventions

Aims: This paper describes the development of a risk adjustment (RA) model predictive of individual lesion treatment failure in percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) for use in a quality monitoring and improvement program. Methods and results: Prospectively collected data for 3972 consecutive revascularisation procedures (5601 lesions) performed between January 2003 and September 2011 were studied. Data on procedures to September 2009 (n = 3100) were used to identify factors predictive of lesion treatment failure. Factors identified included lesion risk class (p < 0.001), occlusion type (p < 0.001), patient age (p = 0.001), vessel system (p < 0.04), vessel diameter (p < 0.001), unstable angina (p = 0.003) and presence of major cardiac risk factors (p = 0.01). A Bayesian RA model was built using these factors with predictive performance of the model tested on the remaining procedures (area under the receiver operating curve: 0.765, Hosmer–Lemeshow p value: 0.11). Cumulative sum, exponentially weighted moving average and funnel plots were constructed using the RA model and subjectively evaluated. Conclusion: A RA model was developed and applied to SPC monitoring for lesion failure in a PCI database. If linked to appropriate quality improvement governance response protocols, SPC using this RA tool might improve quality control and risk management by identifying variation in performance based on a comparison of observed and expected outcomes.

Bearing fault prognosis based on health state probability estimation

In condition-based maintenance (CBM), effective diagnostic and prognostic tools are essential for maintenance engineers to identify imminent fault and predict the remaining useful life before the components finally fail. This enables remedial actions to be taken in advance and reschedule of production if necessary. All machine components are subjected to degradation processes in real environments and they have certain failure characteristics which can be related to the operating conditions. This paper describes a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of bearings based on health state probability estimation and historical knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostics and prognostics system. The technique uses the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier as a tool for estimating health state probability of machine degradation process to provide long term prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, real life fault historical data from bearings of High Pressure-Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were analysed and used to obtain the optimal prediction of remaining useful life (RUL). The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognosis system based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for remnant life prediction in industrial machinery.

Estimation Of concrete resistance To chloride-ion penetration based On water accessible porosity and unit weight Of concrete

To ensure better concrete quality and long-term durability, there has been an increasing focus in recent years on the development of test methods for quality control of concrete. This paper presents a study to evaluate the effect of water accessible porosity and oven-dry unit weight on the resistance of concrete to chloride-ion penetration. Based on the experimental results and regression analyses, empirical relationships of the charge passed (ASTM C 1202) and chloride migration coefficient (NT Build 492) versus the water accessible porosity and oven dry unit weight of the concrete are established. Using basic physical properties of water accessible porosity and oven dry unit weight which can be easily determined, total charge passed and migration coefficient of the concrete can be estimated for quality control and for estimating durability of concrete.

A UKF-based estimation strategy for actuator fault detection of UASs

This paper presents a recursive strategy for online detection of actuator faults on a unmanned aerial system (UAS) subjected to accidental actuator faults. The proposed detection algorithm aims to provide a UAS with the capability of identifying and determining characteristics of actuator faults, offering necessary flight information for the design of fault-tolerant mechanism to compensate for the resultant side-effect when faults occur. The proposed fault detection strategy consists of a bank of unscented Kalman filters (UKFs) with each one detecting a specific type of actuator faults and estimating correspond- ing velocity and attitude information. Performance of the proposed method is evaluated using a typical nonlinear UAS model and it is demonstrated in simulations that our method is able to detect representative faults with a sufficient accuracy and acceptable time delay, and can be applied to the design of fault-tolerant flight control systems of UASs.

The effect of juice composition on the scaling rate and scale composition in sugar mill evaporators

To date, the formation of deposits on heat exchanger surfaces is the least understood problem in the design of heat exchangers for processing industries. Dr East has related the structure of the deposits to solution composition and has developed predictive models for composite fouling of calcium oxalate and silica in sugar factory evaporators.

Achieving high reliability for ambiguity resolutions with multiple GNSS constellations

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS)-based observation systems can provide high precision positioning and navigation solutions in real time, in the order of subcentimetre if we make use of carrier phase measurements in the differential mode and deal with all the bias and noise terms well. However, these carrier phase measurements are ambiguous due to unknown, integer numbers of cycles. One key challenge in the differential carrier phase mode is to fix the integer ambiguities correctly. On the other hand, in the safety of life or liability-critical applications, such as for vehicle safety positioning and aviation, not only is high accuracy required, but also the reliability requirement is important. This PhD research studies to achieve high reliability for ambiguity resolution (AR) in a multi-GNSS environment. GNSS ambiguity estimation and validation problems are the focus of the research effort. Particularly, we study the case of multiple constellations that include initial to full operations of foreseeable Galileo, GLONASS and Compass and QZSS navigation systems from next few years to the end of the decade. Since real observation data is only available from GPS and GLONASS systems, the simulation method named Virtual Galileo Constellation (VGC) is applied to generate observational data from another constellation in the data analysis. In addition, both full ambiguity resolution (FAR) and partial ambiguity resolution (PAR) algorithms are used in processing single and dual constellation data. Firstly, a brief overview of related work on AR methods and reliability theory is given. Next, a modified inverse integer Cholesky decorrelation method and its performance on AR are presented. Subsequently, a new measure of decorrelation performance called orthogonality defect is introduced and compared with other measures. Furthermore, a new AR scheme considering the ambiguity validation requirement in the control of the search space size is proposed to improve the search efficiency. With respect to the reliability of AR, we also discuss the computation of the ambiguity success rate (ASR) and confirm that the success rate computed with the integer bootstrapping method is quite a sharp approximation to the actual integer least-squares (ILS) method success rate. The advantages of multi-GNSS constellations are examined in terms of the PAR technique involving the predefined ASR. Finally, a novel satellite selection algorithm for reliable ambiguity resolution called SARA is developed. In summary, the study demonstrats that when the ASR is close to one, the reliability of AR can be guaranteed and the ambiguity validation is effective. The work then focuses on new strategies to improve the ASR, including a partial ambiguity resolution procedure with a predefined success rate and a novel satellite selection strategy with a high success rate. The proposed strategies bring significant benefits of multi-GNSS signals to real-time high precision and high reliability positioning services.

The influence of temperature and introduction point on the detection of Rhyzopertha dominica in stored grain

The presence of insect pests in grain storages throughout the supply chain is a significant problem for farmers, grain handlers, and distributors world-wide. Insect monitoring and sampling programmes are used in the stored grains industry for the detection and estimation of pest populations. At the low pest densities dictated by economic and commercial requirements, the accuracy of both detection and abundance estimates can be influenced by variations in the spatial structure of pest populations over short distances. Geostatistical analysis of Rhyzopertha dominica populations in 2 and 3 dimensions showed that insect numbers were positively correlated over short (0.5 cm) distances, and negatively correlated over longer (.10 cm) distances. At 35 C, insects were located significantly further from the grain surface than at 25 and 30 C. Dispersion metrics showed statistically significant aggregation in all cases. The observed heterogeneous spatial distribution of R. dominica may also be influenced by factors such as the site of initial infestation and disturbance during handling. To account for these additional factors, I significantly extended a simulation model that incorporates both pest growth and movement through a typical stored-grain supply chain. By incorporating the effects of abundance, initial infestation site, grain handling, and treatment on pest spatial distribution, I developed a supply chain model incorporating estimates of pest spatial distribution. This was used to examine several scenarios representative of grain movement through a supply chain, and determine the influence of infestation location and grain disturbance on the sampling intensity required to detect pest infestations at various infestation rates. This study has investigated the effects of temperature, infestation point, and grain handling on the spatial distribution and detection of R. dominica. The proportion of grain infested was found to be dependent upon abundance, initial pest location, and grain handling. Simulation modelling indicated that accounting for these factors when developing sampling strategies for stored grain has the potential to significantly reduce sampling costs while simultaneously improving detection rate, resulting in reduced storage and pest management cost while improving grain quality.

Effects of soluble dietary cellulose on specific growth rate, survival and digestive enzyme activities in three freshwater crayfish (Cherax) species

Three native freshwater crayfish Cherax species are farmed in Australia namely; Redclaw (Cherax quadricarinatus), Marron (C. tenuimanus), and Yabby (C. destructor). Lack of appropriate data on specific nutrient requirements for each of these species, however, has constrained development of specific formulated diets and hence current use of over-formulated feeds or expensive marine shrimp feeds, limit their profitability. A number of studies have investigated nutritional requirements in redclaw that have focused on replacing expensive fish meal in formulated feeds with non-protein, less expensive substitutes including plant based ingredients. Confirmation that freshwater crayfish possess endogenous cellulase genes, suggests their potential ability to utilize complex carbohydrates like cellulose as nutrient sources in their diet. To date, studies have been limited to only C. quadricarinatus and C. destructor and no studies have compared the relative ability of each species to utilize soluble cellulose in their diets. Individual feeding trials of late-juveniles of each species were conducted separately in an automated recirculating culture system over 12 week cycles. Animals were fed either a test diet (TD) that contained 20% soluble cellulose or a reference diet (RD) substituted with the same amount of corn starch. Water temperature, conductivity and pH were maintained at constant and optimum levels for each species. Animals were fed at 3% of their body weight twice daily and wet body weight was recorded bi-weekly. At the end of experiment, all animals were harvested, measured and midgut gland extracts assayed for alpha-amylase, total protease and cellulase activity levels. After the trial period, redclaw fed with RD showed significantly higher (p<0.05) specific growth rate (SGR) compare with animals fed the TD while SGR of marron and yabby fed the two diets were not significantly different (p<0.05). Cellulase expression levels in redclaw were not significantly different between diets. Marron and yabby showed significantly higher cellulase activity when fed the RD. Amylase and protease activity in all three species were significantly higher in the animals fed with RD (Table 1). These results indicate that test animals of all species can utilize starch better than dietary soluble cellulose in their diet and inclusion of 20% soluble cellulose in diets does not appear to have any significant negative effect on their growth rate but survival was impacted in C. quadricarinatus while not in C. tenuimanus or C. destructor.

Spatiotemporal modelling in estimation of nitrous oxide emissions from soil

Nitrous oxide is a major greenhouse gas emission. The aim of this research was to develop and apply statistical models to characterize the complex spatial and temporal variation in nitrous oxide emissions from soils under different land use conditions. This is critical when developing site-specific management plans to reduce nitrous oxide emissions. These studies can improve predictions and increase our understanding of environmental factors that influence nitrous oxide emissions. They also help to identify areas for future research, which can further improve the prediction of nitrous oxide in practice.