A revisit to Pope's cohort analysis

Gulland's [Gulland, J.A., 1965. Estimation of mortality rates. Annex to Arctic Fisheries Working Group Report (meeting in Hamburg, January 1965). ICES. C.M. 1965, Doc. No. 3 (mimeographed)] virtual population analysis (VPA) is commonly used for studying the dynamics of harvested fish populations. However, it necessitates the solving of a nonlinear equation for the instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish in a population. Pope [Pope, J.G., 1972. An investigation of the accuracy of Virtual Population Analysis using cohort analysis. ICNAF Res. Bull. 9, 65-74. Also available in D.H. Cushing (ed.) (1983), Key Papers on Fish Populations, p. 291-301, IRL Press, Oxford, 405 p.] eliminated this necessity in his cohort analysis by approximating its underlying age- and time-dependent population model. His approximation has since become one of the most commonly used age- and time-dependent fish population models in fisheries science. However, some of its properties are not well understood. For example, many assert that it describes the dynamics of a fish population, from which the catch of fish is taken instantaneously in the middle of the year. Such an assertion has never been proven, nor has its implied instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish of a particular age at a particular time been examined, nor has its implied catch equation been derived from a general catch equation. In this paper, we prove this assertion, examine its implied instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish of a particular age at a particular time, derive its implied catch equation from a general catch equation, and comment on how to structure an age- and time-dependent population model to ensure its internal consistency. This work shows that Gulland's (1965) virtual population analysis and Pope's (1972) cohort analysis lie at the opposite end of a continuous spectrum as a general model for a seasonally occurring fishery; Pope's (1972) approximation implies an infinitely large instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish of a particular age at a particular time in a fishing season of zero length; and its implied catch equation has an undefined instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish in a population, but a well-defined cumulative instantaneous rate of fishing mortality of the fish in the population. This work also highlights a need for a more careful treatment of the times of start and end of a fishing season in fish population models.

Estimation for the general sample selection models

Consider a general regression model with an arbitrary and unknown link function and a stochastic selection variable that determines whether the outcome variable is observable or missing. The paper proposes U-statistics that are based on kernel functions as estimators for the directions of the parameter vectors in the link function and the selection equation, and shows that these estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal.

General ranked set sampling with cost considerations

Nahhas, Wolfe, and Chen (2002, Biometrics 58, 964-971) considered optimal set size for ranked set sampling (RSS) with fixed operational costs. This framework can be very useful in practice to determine whether RSS is beneficial and to obtain the optimal set size that minimizes the variance of the population estimator for a fixed total cost. In this article, we propose a scheme of general RSS in which more than one observation can be taken from each ranked set. This is shown to be more cost-effective in some cases when the cost of ranking is not so small. We demonstrate using the example in Nahhas, Wolfe, and Chen (2002, Biometrics 58, 964-971), by taking two or more observations from one set even with the optimal set size from the RSS design can be more beneficial.

The Art of Sympathy : Forms of Moral and Emotional Persuasion in Fiction

"The Art of Sympathy: Forms of Moral and Emotional Persuasion" in Fiction is an interdisciplinary study that looks closely at the ways that stories evoke sympathy, and the significance of this emotion for the development of moral attitudes and awareness. By linking readers' emotional responses to fiction with the potential impact of such responses on "the moral imagination," the study builds on empirical research conducted by literary scholars and psychologists into the emotional effects of reading fiction, as well as social psychological research into the connections between empathy/sympathy and moral development. I first investigate the dynamics of readers beliefs regarding characters in fictional narratives, and the nature of the emotions that they may experience as a result of those beliefs. The analysis demonstrates that there are important similarities between real emotions and emotions generated by fiction. Recognizing these similarities, I claim, can help us to conceptualize the nature of sympathetic responses to fictional characters. Building on these assertions, I then draw on research from social psychology and philosophy to develop a comprehensive definition of sympathy and to clarify the ways in which sympathy operates, both in people s daily lives and in readers sympathetic responses to fictional characters. Having established this definition and delineated its practical implications, I then examine how particular stories, through a variety of narrative techniques, persuade readers to feel sympathy for characters who are unsympathetic in certain ways. In order to verify my claims about the impact of these stories on readers emotions, I also review the results of tests that I conducted with nearly 200 adolescent readers. Through these tests, which were constructed and scored according to methods prevalent in social psychological research, it was determined that a majority of readers felt sympathy for the protagonists in two of the stories included in the study. These results were combined with data from an additional test, a standard measure of empathy and sympathy in the field of social psychology. The cross-tabulation of these results suggests that there was not a strong connection between readers responses and their general tendencies to feel sympathy for others. This finding would appear to support my hypotheses regarding the sympathetic persuasiveness of the stories in question. In light of these results, finally, I consider the potential contribution that fiction can make to adolescent emotional and moral development and the implications of that potential for future language arts curricula in the schools. In particular, I suggest the pedagogical importance of providing adolescents with opportunities to engage with the lives of fictional characters, and especially to experience feelings of sympathy for individuals towards whom they ordinarily might feel aversion.

Voice, deliberation, resistance and persuasion through participatory journalism business models

The pervasive use of the World Wide Web by the general population has created a cultural shift throughout the world. It has enabled more people to share more information about more events and issues than was possible before its general use. As a consequence, it has transformed traditional news media’s approach to almost every aspect of journalism, with many organisations restructuring their philosophy and practice to include a variety of participatory spaces/forums where people are free to engage in deliberative dialogue about matters of public importance. This paper draws from an international collective case study that showcases various approaches to participatory online news journalism during the period 1997–2011 (Adams, 2013). The research finds differences in the ways in which public service, commercial, and independent news media give voice to the public, and ultimately in their approach to journalism’s role as the Fourth Estate––one of the key institutions of democracy. The work is framed by the notion that journalism in democratic societies has a crucial role in ensuring citizens are informed and engaged with public affairs. An examination of four media models, OhmyNews International, News Corp Australia (formerly News Limited), the Guardian and the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), showcases the various approaches to participatory online news journalism and how each provides different avenues for citizen engagement. Semistructured in-depth interviews with some of the key senior journalists and editors provide specific information on comparisons between the distinctive practices in each of their employer organisations.

Spawning stock dynamics of two penaeid prawns, Metapenaeus bennettae and Penaeus esculentus, in Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia

Spawning stock dynamics of 2 commercially important penaeid prawns, Metapenaeus bennettae and Penaeus esculentus, from 9 stations in Moreton Bay (27°15'S, 153°15'E), southeast Queensland, Australia, were examined. An egg production index (EPI), based on the relative abundance, proportion that were mature or ripe, and size of adult females, was used as a measure of egg production in the 2 populations. Egg production by M. bennettae was 20 to 30 higher than that by P. esculentus, extended over 7 to 8 mo each year and peaked from February to March (late summer to early autumn). Monthly patterns in egg production by M. bennettae varied between years. In contrast, P. esculentus produced most of its eggs in a single, clearly defined peak in October (spring), although production continued to March (early autumn) each year. The seasonal onset and subsequent decline in maturation in P. esculentus were rapid. Egg production by M. bennettae was several times higher at the 5 northern stations than at the 4 southern stations and negatively correlated with salinity during the main spawning period. Egg production by P. esculentus was less varied among stations and positively correlated with depth. P. esculentus appeared more likely than M. bennettae to experience recruitment overfishing because (1) the peak spawning period for P. esculentus was dependent on relatively few adult females spawning over a short period, and (2) the selectivity of trawl nets used in the bay was much higher for P. esculentus spawners than for those of M. bennettae. Compared with more northern populations, P. esculentus in Moreton Bay matured at a larger size, had lower incidences of insemination and mature or ripe females, and had a shorter spawning period. These results suggest the likelihood of recruitment overfishing in P. esculentus increases with increasing latitude.

Dynamics of plant populations in Heteropogon contortus(black speargrass) pastures on a granite landscape in southern Queensland. 2. Seed production and soil seed banks of H. contortus

Seed production and soil seed hanks of H. contortus were studied in a subset of treatments within an extensive grazing study conducted in H. contortus pasture in southern Queensland between 1990 and 1996. Seed production of H. contortus in autumn ranged from 260 to 1800 seeds/m2 with much of this variation due to differences in rainfall between years. Seed production was generally higher in the silver-leaved ironbark than in the narrow-leaved ironbark land class and was also influenced by a consistent stocking rate x pasture type interaction. Inflorescence density was the main factor contributing to the variable seed production and was related to the rainfall received during February. The number of seeds per inflorescence was unaffected by seasonal rainfall, landscape position, stocking rate or legume oversowing. Seed viability was related to the rainfall received during March. Soil seed banks in spring varied from 130 to 520 seeds/m2 between 1990 and 1995 with generally more seed present in the silver-leaved ironbark than in the narrow-leaved ironbark land class. There were poor relationships between viable seed production and the size of the soil seed bank, and between the size of the soil seed bank and seedling recruitment. This study indicates that H. contortus has the potential to produce relatively large amounts of seed and showed that the seasonal pattern of rainfall plays a major role in achieving this potential

Dynamics of plant populations in Heteropogon contortus(black speargrass) pastures on a granite landscape in southern Queensland. 1. Dynamics of H. contortus populations

The dynamics of Heteropogon contortus (black speargrass) populations were measured in a subset of treatments contained within an extensive grazing study conducted between 1990 and 1996 in H. contortus pasture in southern Queensland. This subset included 2 landscape positions and 3 stocking rates in both native pasture and legume-oversown native pasture. Severe drought conditions throughout much of the study necessitated ongoing adjustments to the original stocking rates and, as a result, drought was the major influence on the dynamics of H. contortus populations. Plant density and basal area in the silver-leaved ironbark landscape were consistently higher than those in the narrow-leaved ironbark landscape. There was limited evidence of any impact by either light or moderate stocking rate but there was evidence of an impact at the heaviest stocking rate. There was minimal impact of legume oversowing. Relatively large fluctuations in plant density occurred during this study resulting from the death of existing plants, due mainly to drought, and seedling recruitment. Similarly, there were relatively large fluctuations in basal area caused mainly by changes in plant size. Rates for turnover of plant numbers were relatively high whereas plant turnover rates of basal areas were relatively low. Regular seedling recruitment appeared necessary to ensure the persistence of this species. Despite the high turnover, populations were maintained at reasonable levels indicating the overall resilience of H. contortus.

Composition of chemical attractants affects trap catches of the Australian sheep blowfly, lucilia cuprina, and other blowflies

Numbers of Lucilia cuprina (Australian sheep blowfly), Chrysomya spp., and Calliphora spp. blowflies caught on sticky traps baited with various synthetic attractants or a standard liver/sodium sulfide attractant in western Queensland were recorded. Numbers of each genus collected were influenced by the composition of the chemical attractants. Attractant mixtures based on 2-mercaptoethanol, indole, butanoic/pentanoic acid, and a sodium sulfide solution gave 5- to 20-fold higher L. cuprina catches than the liver standard. These blends attracted similar numbers of Chrysomya spp. (0.85–2.7× ) and fewer Calliphora spp. (0.02–0.2× ) compared to the liver standard. These synthetic attractants were more effective and selective for L. cuprina than the standard liver/sodium sulfide attractant, and they can be packaged in controlled-release dispensers to generate constant, prolonged release of the attractant.

Transient state work fluctuation theorem for a classical harmonic oscillator linearly coupled to a harmonic bath

Based on a Hamiltonian description we present a rigorous derivation of the transient state work fluctuation theorem and the Jarzynski equality for a classical harmonic oscillator linearly coupled to a harmonic heat bath, which is dragged by an external agent. Coupling with the bath makes the dynamics dissipative. Since we do not assume anything about the spectral nature of the harmonic bath the derivation is not restricted only to the Ohmic bath, rather it is more general, for a non-Ohmic bath. We also derive expressions of the average work done and the variance of the work done in terms of the two-time correlation function of the fluctuations of the position of the harmonic oscillator. In the case of an Ohmic bath, we use these relations to evaluate the average work done and the variance of the work done analytically and verify the transient state work fluctuation theorem quantitatively. Actually these relations have far-reaching consequences. They can be used to numerically evaluate the average work done and the variance of the work done in the case of a non-Ohmic bath when analytical evaluation is not possible.

Conformational Dynamics in Alkyl Chains of an Anchored Bilayer: A Molecular Dynamics Study

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are reported for an anchored bilayer formed by the intercalation of cetyl trimethyl ammonium (CTA) and CH3(CH2)15N+(CH3) ions in a layered solid, CdPS3. The intercalated CTA ions are organized with the cationic headgroups tethered to the inorganic sheet and the hydrocarbon tails arranged as bilayers. Simulations were performed at three temperatures, 65, 180, and 298 K, using an isothermal−isobaric ensemble that was subsequently switched once macroscopic parameters had converged to a canonical isothermal−isochoric ensemble. The simulations are able to reproduce the experimental features of this system, including the formation of the bilayer and layer-to-layer separation distance. An analysis of the conformation of the chains showed that at all three temperatures a fraction of the alkyl chains retained a planar all-trans conformation, and that gauche bonds occurred as part of a “kink” (gauche+−trans−gauche−) sequence and not as isolated gauche bonds. Trans−gauche isomerization rates for the alkyl chains in the anchored bilayer are slower than those in lipid bilayers at the same temperature and show a progressive increase as the torsion numbers approach the tail. A two-dimensional periodic Voronoi tessellation analysis was performed to obtain the single-molecular area of an alkyl chain in the bilayer. The single-molecular area relaxation times are an order of magnitude longer than the trans−gauche isomerization times. The results indicate that the trans−gauche isomerization is associated with the creation and annihilation of a kink defect sequence. The results of the present MD simulation explain the apparent conflicting estimates of the gauche disorder in this system as obtained from infrared and 13C nuclear magnetic resonance measurements.

Agent-based modelling of worker interactions and related impacts on workplace dynamics

This study uses agent based modelling to simulate the worker interactions within a workplace and to investigate how the interactions can have impact on the workplace dynamics. Two new models (Bounded Confidence with Bias model and Relative Agreement with Bias model) are built based on the theoretical foundation of two existing models. A new factor, namely bias, is added into the new models which raises several issues to be studied.

Faecal incontinence in childhood : a multidisciplinary approach including biofeedback

One hundred and seven children with faecal incontinence were evaluated and managed over a 3 year period by a multidisciplinary team. After initial clinical assessment, evaluation of defaecatory mechanisms (using a balloon model) and assessment of personal-social development and self-concept were undertaken. Management was based on initial bowel evacuation, short-term laxatives, and habit training involving systematic use of positive reinforcement; 69 children received biofeedback conditioning. Idiopathic megacolon with constipation and soiling was the most common finding (98 cases). Other diagnoses included previously undiagnosed neurogenic bowel (three cases), post-surgical anal anomalies (four cases), and psychogenic encopresis (two cases). Idiopathic megacolon was characterized by decreased rectal sensation, increased threshold for external sphincter relaxation and an inability to evacuate. Faecal incontinence was associated with an undesirably low social self-concept (70% of the 40 evaluated), but was not related to a delay in development (mean general developmental quotient = 105 ± 8, for the 35 tested). Family psychopathology warranting referral for family therapy was found in 14 children (13%). The management programme yielded a short-term (3 months) cure rate of 68% and a long-term (12 months) cure rate of 90%, with 10% having continued soiling which varied from occasional to several incidents/week. No significant improvement in self-concept was observed overall, although marked improvements were observed in some children. We conclude that disordered defaecatory dynamics are a major determinant of faecal incontinence in children. Undesirably low social self-concepts but normal developmental ability accompany this condition. Management is facilitated by a multidisciplinary approach, acknowledging the role of both behavioural and physiological components of the problem. This approach is effective in eradicating soiling in the majority of cases, comparing favourably with other published data.

Dynamics of plant populations in Heteropogon contortus (black speargrass) pastures on a granite landscape in southern Queensland. 3. Dynamics of Aristida spp. populations

The dynamics of the unpalatable Aristida spp. (wiregrasses) were measured in a subset of treatments contained within an extensive grazing study conducted between 1990 and 1996 in H. contortus pasture in southern Queensland. This paper reports the results from these treatments which included 2 land classes (silver-leaved and narrowleaved ironbark), 3 stocking rates (0.3, 0.6 and 0.9 beasts/ha) in both native pasture and legumeoversown native pasture, all in the absence of fire. Changes in plant density and basal area of Aristida spp. reflected differences in both the survival and size of existing plants together with a large seedling recruitment in 1991. Two different taxa of Aristida spp. were distinguished; however, there were no clear differences in the response of these 2 taxa to the treatments. Grazing had the greatest impact on population dynamics through reducing basal area as stocking rate increased. Neither landscape position nor legume oversowing had a major impact on Aristida spp. The results suggest that populations of Aristida spp. will be highest under light grazing and that seedling recruitment may be episodic

Dynamics of plant populations in Heteropogon contortus (black speargrass) pastures on a granite landscape in southern Queensland. 4. The effects of burning on H.contortus and Aristida spp. populations

This paper reports an experiment undertaken to examine the impact of burning in spring together with reduced grazing pressure on the dynamics of H. contortus and Aristida spp. In H. contortus pasture in south-eastern Queensland. The overall results indicate that spring burning in combination with reduced grazing pressure had no marked effect on the density of either grass species. This was attributed to 2 factors. Firstly, extreme drought conditions restricted any increase in H. contortus seedling establishment despite the presence of an adequate soil seed bank prior to summer; and secondly, some differences occurred in the response to fire of the diverse taxonomic groupings in the species of Aristida spp. present at the study site. This study concluded that it is necessary to identify appropriate taxonomic units within the Aristida genus and that, where appropriate, burning in spring to manage pasture composition should be conducted under favorable rainfall conditions using seasonal forecasting indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index