Dynamics of coastal aquifers: data-driven forecasting and risk analysis

This work is focused on the study of saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers, and in particular on the realization of conceptual schemes to evaluate the risk associated with it. Saltwater intrusion depends on different natural and anthropic factors, both presenting a strong aleatory behaviour, that should be considered for an optimal management of the territory and water resources. Given the uncertainty of problem parameters, the risk associated with salinization needs to be cast in a probabilistic framework. On the basis of a widely adopted sharp interface formulation, key hydrogeological problem parameters are modeled as random variables, and global sensitivity analysis is used to determine their influence on the position of saltwater interface. The analyses presented in this work rely on an efficient model reduction technique, based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion, able to combine the best description of the model without great computational burden. When the assumptions of classical analytical models are not respected, and this occurs several times in the applications to real cases of study, as in the area analyzed in the present work, one can adopt data-driven techniques, based on the analysis of the data characterizing the system under study. It follows that a model can be defined on the basis of connections between the system state variables, with only a limited number of assumptions about the "physical" behaviour of the system.

Analysis of cumulative effects of multiple stressors on saltmarshes and consideration of management options

Natural systems face pressures exerted by natural physical-chemical forcings and a myriad of co-occurring human stressors that may interact to cause larger than expected effects, thereby presenting a challenge to ecosystem management. This thesis aimed to develop new information that can contribute to reduce the existing knowledge gaps hampering the holistic management of multiple stressors. I undertook a review of the state-of-the-art methods to detect, quantify and predict stressor interactions, identifying techniques that could be applied in this thesis research. Then, I conducted a systematic review of saltmarsh multiple stressor studies in conjunction with a multiple stressor mapping exercise for the study system in order to infer potential important synergistic stressor interactions. This analysis identified key stressors that are affecting the study system, but also pointed to data gaps in terms of driver and pressure data and raised issues for potentially overlooked stressors. Using field mesocosms, I explored how a local stressor (nutrient availability) affects the responses of saltmarsh vegetation to a global stressor (increased inundation) in different soil types. Results indicate that saltmarsh vegetation would be more drastically affected by increased inundation in low than in medium organic matter soils, and especially in estuaries already under high nutrient availability. In another field experiment, I examined the challenges of managing co-occurring and potentially interacting local stressors on saltmarsh vegetation: recreational trampling and smothering by deposition of excess macroalgal wrack due to high nutrient loads. Trampling and wrack prevention had interacting effects, causing non-linear responses of the vegetation to simulated management of these stressors, such that vegetation recovered only in those treatments simulating the combined prevention of both stressors. During this research I detected, using molecular genetic methods, a widespread presence of S. anglica (and to a lesser extent S. townsendii), two previously unrecorded non-native Spartinas in the study areas.

Stratigraphic study and analysis of the barchan dunefield of the Laguna coastal zone in Santa Catarina, Brazil

The association of several favorable factors has resulted in the development of a wide barchan dune field that stands out as a fundamental element in the coastal landscape of southern Santa Catarina state in Brazil. This original ecosystem is being destroyed and highly modified, due to urbanization. This work identifies and discusses its basic characteristics and analyzes the favorable factors for its preservation, in the foreseen of both a sustainable future and potential incomes from ecotourism. The knowledge of the geologic evolution allows to associate this transgressive Holocene dunes formation to more dissipative beach conditions. Spatial differences on morphodynamics are related to local and regional contrasts in the sediment budget, with an influence on gradients of wave attenuation in the inner shelf and consequently with influence in the level of coastal erosion. The link between relative sea level changes and coastal eolian sedimentation can be used to integrate coastal eolian systems to the sequence stratigraphy model. The main accumulation phase of eolian sediments would occur during the final transgressive and highstand systems tracts. Considering the global character of Quaternary relative sea level changes, the Laguna transgressive dune field should be correlated with similar eolian deposits developed along other parts of the Brazilian coast compatibles with the model of dunefield initiation during rising and highstand sea level phases.

Species specific nitrogen isotope analysis by NanoSIMS

Der atmosphärische Kreislauf reaktiver Stickstoffverbindungen beschäftigt sowohl die Naturwissenschaftler als auch die Politik. Dies ist insbesondere darauf zurückzuführen, dass reaktive Stickoxide die Bildung von bodennahem Ozon kontrollieren. Reaktive Stickstoffverbindungen spielen darüber hinaus als gasförmige Vorläufer von Feinstaubpartikeln eine wichtige Rolle und der Transport von reaktivem Stickstoff über lange Distanzen verändert den biogeochemischen Kohlenstoffkreislauf des Planeten, indem er entlegene Ökosysteme mit Stickstoff düngt. Die Messungen von stabilen Stickstoffisotopenverhältnissen (15N/14N) bietet ein Hilfsmittel, welches es erlaubt, die Quellen von reaktiven Stickstoffverbindungen zu identifizieren und die am Stickstoffkeislauf beteiligten Reaktionen mithilfe ihrer reaktionsspezifischen Isotopenfraktionierung genauer zu untersuchen. rnIn dieser Doktorarbeit demonstriere ich, dass es möglich ist, mit Hilfe von Nano-Sekundärionenmassenspektrometrie (NanoSIMS) verschiedene stickstoffhaltige Verbindungen, die üblicherweise in atmosphärischen Feinstaubpartikeln vorkommen, mit einer räumlichen Auflösung von weniger als einem Mikrometer zu analysieren und zu identifizieren. Die Unterscheidung verschiedener stickstoffhaltiger Verbindungen erfolgt anhand der relativen Signalintensitäten der positiven und negativen Sekundärionensignale, die beobachtet werden, wenn die Feinstaubproben mit einem Cs+ oder O- Primärionenstrahl beschossen werden. Die Feinstaubproben können direkt auf dem Probenahmesubstrat in das Massenspektrometer eingeführt werden, ohne chemisch oder physikalisch aufbereited zu werden. Die Methode wurde Mithilfe von Nitrat, Nitrit, Ammoniumsulfat, Harnstoff, Aminosären, biologischen Feinstaubproben (Pilzsporen) und Imidazol getestet. Ich habe gezeigt, dass NO2 Sekundärionen nur beim Beschuss von Nitrat und Nitrit (Salzen) mit positiven Primärionen entstehen, während NH4+ Sekundärionen nur beim Beschuss von Aminosäuren, Harnstoff und Ammoniumsalzen mit positiven Primärionen freigesetzt werden, nicht aber beim Beschuss biologischer Proben wie z.B. Pilzsporen. CN- Sekundärionen werden beim Beschuss aller stickstoffhaltigen Verbindungen mit positiven Primärionen beobachtet, da fast alle Proben oberflächennah mit Kohlenstoffspuren kontaminiert sind. Die relative Signalintensität der CN- Sekundärionen ist bei kohlenstoffhaltigen organischen Stickstoffverbindungen am höchsten.rnDarüber hinaus habe ich gezeigt, dass an reinen Nitratsalzproben (NaNO3 und KNO3), welche auf Goldfolien aufgebracht wurden speziesspezifische stabile Stickstoffisotopenverhältnisse mithilfe des 15N16O2- / 14N16O2- - Sekundärionenverhältnisses genau und richtig gemessen werden können. Die Messgenauigkeit auf Feldern mit einer Rastergröße von 5×5 µm2 wurde anhand von Langzeitmessungen an einem hausinternen NaNO3 Standard als ± 0.6 ‰ bestimmt. Die Differenz der matrixspezifischen instrumentellen Massenfraktionierung zwischen NaNO3 und KNO3 betrug 7.1 ± 0.9 ‰. 23Na12C2- Sekundärionen können eine ernst zu nehmende Interferenz darstellen wenn 15N16O2- Sekundärionen zur Messung des nitratspezifischen schweren Stickstoffs eingesetzt werden sollen und Natrium und Kohlenstoff im selben Feinstaubpartikel als interne Mischung vorliegt oder die natriumhaltige Probe auf einem kohlenstoffhaltigen Substrat abgelegt wurde. Selbst wenn, wie im Fall von KNO3, keine derartige Interferenz vorliegt, führt eine interne Mischung mit Kohlenstoff im selben Feinstaubpartikel zu einer matrixspezifischen instrumentellen Massenfraktionierung die mit der folgenden Gleichung beschrieben werden kann: 15Nbias = (101 ± 4) ∙ f − (101 ± 3) ‰, mit f = 14N16O2- / (14N16O2- + 12C14N-). rnWird das 12C15N- / 12C14N- Sekundärionenverhältnis zur Messung der stabilen Stickstoffisotopenzusammensetzung verwendet, beeinflusst die Probematrix die Messungsergebnisse nicht, auch wenn Stickstoff und Kohlenstoff in den Feinstaubpartikeln in variablen N/C–Verhältnissen vorliegen. Auch Interferenzen spielen keine Rolle. Um sicherzustellen, dass die Messung weiterhin spezifisch auf Nitratspezies eingeschränkt bleibt, kann eine 14N16O2- Maske bei der Datenauswertung verwendet werden. Werden die Proben auf einem kohlenstoffhaltigen, stickstofffreien Probennahmesubstrat gesammelt, erhöht dies die Signalintensität für reine Nitrat-Feinstaubpartikel.

Analysis and numerical solution of the Peterlin viscoelastic model

Liquids and gasses form a vital part of nature. Many of these are complex fluids with non-Newtonian behaviour. We introduce a mathematical model describing the unsteady motion of an incompressible polymeric fluid. Each polymer molecule is treated as two beads connected by a spring. For the nonlinear spring force it is not possible to obtain a closed system of equations, unless we approximate the force law. The Peterlin approximation replaces the length of the spring by the length of the average spring. Consequently, the macroscopic dumbbell-based model for dilute polymer solutions is obtained. The model consists of the conservation of mass and momentum and time evolution of the symmetric positive definite conformation tensor, where the diffusive effects are taken into account. In two space dimensions we prove global in time existence of weak solutions. Assuming more regular data we show higher regularity and consequently uniqueness of the weak solution. For the Oseen-type Peterlin model we propose a linear pressure-stabilized characteristics finite element scheme. We derive the corresponding error estimates and we prove, for linear finite elements, the optimal first order accuracy. Theoretical error of the pressure-stabilized characteristic finite element scheme is confirmed by a series of numerical experiments.

Dynamic characterisation of four nine-story large-panel R.C. buildings in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan): A comparison between experimental ambient vibration analysis and numerical finite element modeling

With the outlook of improving seismic vulnerability assessment for the city of Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan), the global dynamic behaviour of four nine-storey r.c. large-panel buildings in elastic regime is studied. The four buildings were built during the Soviet era within a serial production system. Since they all belong to the same series, they have very similar geometries both in plan and in height. Firstly, ambient vibration measurements are performed in the four buildings. The data analysis composed of discrete Fourier transform, modal analysis (frequency domain decomposition) and deconvolution interferometry, yields the modal characteristics and an estimate of the linear impulse response function for the structures of the four buildings. Then, finite element models are set up for all four buildings and the results of the numerical modal analysis are compared with the experimental ones. The numerical models are finally calibrated considering the first three global modes and their results match the experimental ones with an error of less then 20%.

Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP) and export of particulate organic carbon (EP) are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.

Bringing results to fruition through publication: An analysis of a peer-reviewed, open access and context-focused journal's editorial practice

When it comes to helping to shape sustainable development, research is most useful when it bridges the science–implementation/management gap and when it brings development specialists and researchers into a dialogue (Hurni et al. 2004); can a peer-reviewed journal contribute to this aim? In the classical system for validation and dissemination of scientific knowledge, journals focus on knowledge exchange within the academic community and do not specifically address a ‘life-world audience’. Within a North-South context, another knowledge divide is added: the peer review process excludes a large proportion of scientists from the South from participating in the production of scientific knowledge (Karlsson et al. 2007). Mountain Research and Development (MRD) is a journal whose mission is based on an editorial strategy to build the bridge between research and development and ensure that authors from the global South have access to knowledge production, ultimately with a view to supporting sustainable development in mountains. In doing so, MRD faces a number of challenges that we would like to discuss with the td-net community, after having presented our experience and strategy as editors of this journal. MRD was launched in 1981 by mountain researchers who wanted mountains to be included in the 1992 Rio process. In the late 1990s, MRD realized that the journal needed to go beyond addressing only the scientific community. It therefore launched a new section addressing a broader audience in 2000, with the aim of disseminating insights into, and recommendations for, the implementation of sustainable development in mountains. In 2006, we conducted a survey among MRD’s authors, reviewers, and readers (Wymann et al. 2007): respondents confirmed that MRD had succeeded in bridging the gap between research and development. But we realized that MRD could become an even more efficient tool for sustainability if development knowledge were validated: in 2009, we began submitting ‘development’ papers (‘transformation knowledge’) to external peer review of a kind different from the scientific-only peer review (for ‘systems knowledge’). At the same time, the journal became open access in order to increase the permeability between science and society, and ensure greater access for readers and authors in the South. We are currently rethinking our review process for development papers, with a view to creating more space for communication between science and society, and enhancing the co-production of knowledge (Roux 2008). Hopefully, these efforts will also contribute to the urgent debate on the ‘publication culture’ needed in transdisciplinary research (Kueffer et al. 2007).

Detection of Internal Defects in Concrete Members Using Global Vibration Characteristics

Rock-pocket and honeycomb defects impair overall stiffness, accelerate aging, reduce service life, and cause structural problems in hardened concrete members. Traditional methods for detecting such deficient volumes involve visual observations or localized nondestructive methods, which are labor-intensive, time-consuming, highly sensitive to test conditions, and require knowledge of and accessibility to defect locations. The authors propose a vibration response-based nondestructive technique that combines experimental and numerical methodologies for use in identifying the location and severity of internal defects of concrete members. The experimental component entails collecting mode shape curvatures from laboratory beam specimens with size-controlled rock pocket and honeycomb defects, and the numerical component entails simulating beam vibration response through a finite element (FE) model parameterized with three defect-identifying variables indicating location (x, coordinate along the beam length) and severity of damage (alpha, stiffness reduction and beta, mass reduction). Defects are detected by comparing the FE model predictions to experimental measurements and inferring the low number of defect-identifying variables. This method is particularly well-suited for rapid and cost-effective quality assurance for precast concrete members and for inspecting concrete members with simple geometric forms.

Pesiqta Rabbati: a text-linguistic and form-analytical analysis of the rabbinic homily

Pesiqta Rabbati is a unique homiletic midrash that follows the liturgical calendar in its presentation of homilies for festivals and special Sabbaths. This article attempts to utilize Pesiqta Rabbati in order to present a global theory of the literary production of rabbinic/homiletic literature. In respect to Pesiqta Rabbati it explores such areas as dating, textual witnesses, integrative apocalyptic meta-narrative, describing and mapping the structure of the text, internal and external constraints that impacted upon the text, text linguistic analysis, form-analysis: problems in the texts and linguistic gap-filling, transmission of text, strict formalization of a homiletic unit, deconstructing and reconstructing homiletic midrashim based upon form-analytic units of the homily, Neusner’s documentary hypothesis, surface structures of the homiletic unit, and textual variants. The suggested methodology may assist scholars in their production of editions of midrashic works by eliminating superfluous material and in their decoding and defining of ancient texts.

Mobile goes global: The effect of cell phones on economic growth and development

This study investigates the effect of cell phones on economic development and growth by performing an econometric analysis using data from the International Telecommunications Union and the Penn World Table. It discusses the various ways cell phones can make markets more efficient and how the diffusion of information andknowledge plays into development. Several approaches (OLS, Fixed Effects, 2SLS) were used to test over 20 econometric models. Overall, the mobile cellular subscriptions rate was found to have a positive and significant impact on countries’ level of real per capitaGDP and GDP growth rate. Furthermore, the study provides policy implications for the use of technology to promote global growth.

Genome-wide analysis of rare copy number variations reveals PARK2 as a candidate gene for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a common, highly heritable neurodevelopmental disorder. Genetic loci have not yet been identified by genome-wide association studies. Rare copy number variations (CNVs), such as chromosomal deletions or duplications, have been implicated in ADHD and other neurodevelopmental disorders. To identify rare (frequency 1%) CNVs that increase the risk of ADHD, we performed a whole-genome CNV analysis based on 489 young ADHD patients and 1285 adult population-based controls and identified one significantly associated CNV region. In tests for a global burden of large (>500 kb) rare CNVs, we observed a nonsignificant (P=0.271) 1.126-fold enriched rate of subjects carrying at least one such CNV in the group of ADHD cases. Locus-specific tests of association were used to assess if there were more rare CNVs in cases compared with controls. Detected CNVs, which were significantly enriched in the ADHD group, were validated by quantitative (q)PCR. Findings were replicated in an independent sample of 386 young patients with ADHD and 781 young population-based healthy controls. We identified rare CNVs within the parkinson protein 2 gene (PARK2) with a significantly higher prevalence in ADHD patients than in controls (P=2.8 × 10(-4) after empirical correction for genome-wide testing). In total, the PARK2 locus (chr 6: 162 659 756-162 767 019) harboured three deletions and nine duplications in the ADHD patients and two deletions and two duplications in the controls. By qPCR analysis, we validated 11 of the 12 CNVs in ADHD patients (P=1.2 × 10(-3) after empirical correction for genome-wide testing). In the replication sample, CNVs at the PARK2 locus were found in four additional ADHD patients and one additional control (P=4.3 × 10(-2)). Our results suggest that copy number variants at the PARK2 locus contribute to the genetic susceptibility of ADHD. Mutations and CNVs in PARK2 are known to be associated with Parkinson disease.Molecular Psychiatry advance online publication, 20 November 2012; doi:10.1038/mp.2012.161.

A global ”imaging” view on systems approaches in immunology

The immune system exhibits an enormous complexity. High throughput methods such as the "-omic'' technologies generate vast amounts of data that facilitate dissection of immunological processes at ever finer resolution. Using high-resolution data-driven systems analysis, causal relationships between complex molecular processes and particular immunological phenotypes can be constructed. However, processes in tissues, organs, and the organism itself (so-called higher level processes) also control and regulate the molecular (lower level) processes. Reverse systems engineering approaches, which focus on the examination of the structure, dynamics and control of the immune system, can help to understand the construction principles of the immune system. Such integrative mechanistic models can properly describe, explain, and predict the behavior of the immune system in health and disease by combining both higher and lower level processes. Moving from molecular and cellular levels to a multiscale systems understanding requires the development of methodologies that integrate data from different biological levels into multiscale mechanistic models. In particular, 3D imaging techniques and 4D modeling of the spatiotemporal dynamics of immune processes within lymphoid tissues are central for such integrative approaches. Both dynamic and global organ imaging technologies will be instrumental in facilitating comprehensive multiscale systems immunology analyses as discussed in this review.

A Social Network Analysis Of Hamadryas Baboons

The study of animal sociality investigates the immediate and long-term consequences that a social structure has on its group members. Typically, social behavior is observed from interactions between two individuals at the dyadic level. However, a new framework for studying social behavior has emerged that allows the researcher to assess social complexity at multiple scales. Social Network Analysis has been recently applied in the field of ethology, and this novel tool enables an approach of focusing on social behavior in context of the global network rather than limited to dyadic interactions. This new technique was applied to a group of captive hamadryas baboons (Papio hamadryas hamadryas) in order to assess how overall network topology of the social group changes over time with the decline of an aging leader male. Observations on aggressive, grooming, and proximity spatial interactions were collected from three separate years in order to serve as `snapshots¿ of the current state of the group. Data on social behavior were collected from the group when the male was in prime health, when the male was at an old age, and after the male¿s death. A set of metrics was obtained from each time period for each type of social behavior and quantified a change in the patterns of interactions. The results suggest that baboon social behavior varies across context, and changes with the attributes of its individual members. Possible mechanisms for adapting to a changing social environment were also explored.