Are agent-based simulations robust? The wholesale electricity trading case

Agent-based computational economics is becoming widely used in practice. This paperexplores the consistency of some of its standard techniques. We focus in particular on prevailingwholesale electricity trading simulation methods. We include different supply and demandrepresentations and propose the Experience-Weighted Attractions method to include severalbehavioural algorithms. We compare the results across assumptions and to economic theorypredictions. The match is good under best-response and reinforcement learning but not underfictitious play. The simulations perform well under flat and upward-slopping supply bidding,and also for plausible demand elasticity assumptions. Learning is influenced by the number ofbids per plant and the initial conditions. The overall conclusion is that agent-based simulationassumptions are far from innocuous. We link their performance to underlying features, andidentify those that are better suited to model wholesale electricity markets.

Pitfalls in the modeling of forward-looking price setting and investment decisions

The present paper makes progress in explaining the role of capital for inflation and output dynamics. We followWoodford (2003, Ch. 5) in assuming Calvo pricing combined with a convex capital adjustment cost at the firm level. Our main result is that capital accumulation affects inflation dynamics primarily through its impact on the marginal cost. This mechanism is much simpler than the one implied by the analysis in Woodford's text. The reason is that his analysis suffers from a conceptual mistake, as we show. The latter obscures the economic mechanism through which capital affects inflation and output dynamics in the Calvo model, as discussed in Woodford (2004).

Entrepreneurial structure of the mercantile company in pre-industrial Catalonia

The mercantile company was the basic form of enterprise in pre-industrial Catalonia. The aim of this paper is to study the formation and development of the mercantile companies in Barcelona whose end was the wholesale and retail sale of textiles in the botigues de teles (textile retail shops) throughout the eighteenth century. These firms were officially registered before a notary and their deeds reveal how these establishments were administered and managed.The study covers a sample of 121 mercantile companies, and the articles and documentation that were put into effect by 32 notaries who were active in Barcelona in the 18th century have been consulted in their entirety. From an initial selection of documentation, a total of 228 deeds registering companies have been found, 107 of which (47%) relate to the creation of companies whose various activities were centred in taverns, textile manufacturing, braiding.... While the 121 companies, which make up our sample and which account for 53% of the deeds registered with the notaries mentioned above, focused exclusively on the management of textile retail shops located in the commercial heart of the city. Thus one point of interest that the documentation reveals is that the majority of the mercantile companies registered by Barcelona notaries throughout the 18th century were establishments which traded in textiles. The first part of the article focuses on the structural characteristics of these enterprises, the number and socio-professional status of the partners and the extent of each partner s involvement in the administration and management. The second part of the article examines the capital investment made by each partner, their rights and obligations agreed on, the sharing out of profits and possible losses and the duration of the companies. The final aim of the paper is to highlight the evolution of these companies through one specific case.

Flexible multivariate GARCH modeling with an application to international stock markets

The goal of this paper is to estimate time-varying covariance matrices.Since the covariance matrix of financial returns is known to changethrough time and is an essential ingredient in risk measurement, portfolioselection, and tests of asset pricing models, this is a very importantproblem in practice. Our model of choice is the Diagonal-Vech version ofthe Multivariate GARCH(1,1) model. The problem is that the estimation ofthe general Diagonal-Vech model model is numerically infeasible indimensions higher than 5. The common approach is to estimate more restrictive models which are tractable but may not conform to the data. Our contributionis to propose an alternative estimation method that is numerically feasible,produces positive semi-definite conditional covariance matrices, and doesnot impose unrealistic a priori restrictions. We provide an empiricalapplication in the context of international stock markets, comparing thenew estimator to a number of existing ones.

Macroeconomic modeling for monetary policy evaluation

We describe some of the main features of the recent vintage macroeconomic models used for monetary policy evaluation. We point to some of the key differences with respect to the earlier generation ofmacro models, and highlight the insights for policy that these new frameworks have to offer. Our discussion emphasizes two key aspects of the new models: the significant role of expectations of future policy actions in the monetary transmission mechanism, and the importance for the central bank of tracking of the flexible price equilibrium values of the natural levels of output and the real interest rate. We argue that both features have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy.

Expanding molecular modeling and design tools to non-natural sidechains.

Protein-protein interactions encode the wiring diagram of cellular signaling pathways and their deregulations underlie a variety of diseases, such as cancer. Inhibiting protein-protein interactions with peptide derivatives is a promising way to develop new biological and therapeutic tools. Here, we develop a general framework to computationally handle hundreds of non-natural amino acid sidechains and predict the effect of inserting them into peptides or proteins. We first generate all structural files (pdb and mol2), as well as parameters and topologies for standard molecular mechanics software (CHARMM and Gromacs). Accurate predictions of rotamer probabilities are provided using a novel combined knowledge and physics based strategy. Non-natural sidechains are useful to increase peptide ligand binding affinity. Our results obtained on non-natural mutants of a BCL9 peptide targeting beta-catenin show very good correlation between predicted and experimental binding free-energies, indicating that such predictions can be used to design new inhibitors. Data generated in this work, as well as PyMOL and UCSF Chimera plug-ins for user-friendly visualization of non-natural sidechains, are all available at http://www.swisssidechain.ch. Our results enable researchers to rapidly and efficiently work with hundreds of non-natural sidechains.

Estandarización de la captura por unidad de esfuerzo (CPUE) de la flota industrial de cerco del stock norte-centro de la anchoveta peruana (Engraulis ringens Jenyns)

Se trabajó utilizando una metodología basada en Modelos Lineales Generalizados (MLG). La CPUE fue expresada en toneladas por duración de viaje. Las variables explicativas utilizadas fueron el año, mes, capacidad de bodega, latitud, inercia espacial y distancia a la costa. El modelo tuvo un coeficiente de determinación de 0,485, explicando casi la mitad de la variabilidad de la CPUE observada. La variable con mayor influencia en el modelo fue la capacidad de bodega (49% de la varianza explicada), debido posiblemente a que la flota anchovetera posee una capacidad elevada de captura y que los recursos pelágicos tienden a hiper-agregarse, incluso cuando están siendo fuertemente explotados. La correlación entre la CPUE estandarizada y biomasa estimada por un modelo de captura a la edad (r=0,74) indica que el método basado en MLG es recomendable para la estandarización de la CPUE. Se propone a esta CPUE como una alternativa para monitorear la biomasa de la anchoveta.

Location models for ceding market share and shrinking services

New location models are presented here for exploring the reduction of facilities in aregion. The first of these models considers firms ceding market share to competitorsunder situations of financial exigency. The goal of this model is to cede the leastmarket share, i.e., retain as much of the customer base as possible while sheddingcostly outlets. The second model considers a firm essentially without competition thatmust shrink it services for economic reasons. This firm is assumed to close outlets sothat the degradation of service is limited. An example is offered within a competitiveenvironment to demonstrate the usefulness of this modeling approach.

Aspectos biológico pesqueros de la pesquería industrial de anchoveta y sardina en Pisco y Tambo de Mora. 1995-1998

Presenta los resultados de algunos aspectos biológico pesqueros de la pesquería industrial de anchoveta y sardina en Pisco y Tambo de Mora, en donde se registraron cambios en el ecosistema marino durante los años 1995-1996, considerado como período frío o fenómeno La Niña. Indica que tanto las condiciones frías como las cálidas en el ambiente marino, producen cambios en el comportamiento de los recursos pelágicos, especialmente la anchoveta.

Quantitative estimation of foot-flat and stance phase of gait using foot-worn inertial sensors.

Time periods composing stance phase of gait can be clinically meaningful parameters to reveal differences between normal and pathological gait. This study aimed, first, to describe a novel method for detecting stance and inner-stance temporal events based on foot-worn inertial sensors; second, to extract and validate relevant metrics from those events; and third, to investigate their suitability as clinical outcome for gait evaluations. 42 subjects including healthy subjects and patients before and after surgical treatments for ankle osteoarthritis performed 50-m walking trials while wearing foot-worn inertial sensors and pressure insoles as a reference system. Several hypotheses were evaluated to detect heel-strike, toe-strike, heel-off, and toe-off based on kinematic features. Detected events were compared with the reference system on 3193 gait cycles and showed good accuracy and precision. Absolute and relative stance periods, namely loading response, foot-flat, and push-off were then estimated, validated, and compared statistically between populations. Besides significant differences observed in stance duration, the analysis revealed differing tendencies with notably a shorter foot-flat in healthy subjects. The result indicated which features in inertial sensors' signals should be preferred for detecting precisely and accurately temporal events against a reference standard. The system is suitable for clinical evaluations and provides temporal analysis of gait beyond the common swing/stance decomposition, through a quantitative estimation of inner-stance phases such as foot-flat.

Análise das curvas de aprendizagem numa empresa industrial Estudo de caso: FRESCOMAR, SARL

Este presente trabalho mostra o desenvolvimento de um modelo para colecta de dados e a determinação das curvas de aprendizagem numa empresa industrial, de modo a verificar a eficiência operacional. Essas curvas foram introduzidas por Wright em 1936, e desde então, têm sido utilizadas para calcular do tempo de produção, a quantidade produzida durante esse tempo e estimação da redução de custos de produção. Começa-se por fazer um levantamento teórico sobre os conceitos ligados a essa ferramenta, aos factores que o influenciam, a sua utilidade nos negócios, bem como os modelos desenvolvidos para a sua aplicação. Tem como objectivo apresentar um modelo para a colecta de dados para a análise das curvas de aprendizagem, aplicado numa empresa de conserva de peixes – FRESCOMAR - localizada na ilha de São Vicente. Para tal, foi feita uma observação aos colaboradores da empresa sobre o seu desempenho a nível da produtividade num determinado espaço de tempo, tendo verificado que a empresa não está a conseguir aumentar a sua produção a medida em que os colaboradores ganham prática e familiaridade com as tarefas desempenhadas. Nesta óptica notou-se que a empresa não segue uma taxa de aprendizagem durante o período em análise, não atingindo crescimento da sua produtividade com consequente a redução dos custos.

Proposta de Implementação do Time-Driven Activity - Based Costing numa Empresa Industrial

O presente trabalho tem como objectivo a apresentação do processo de concepção e implementação de um projecto-piloto de um sistema de custeio baseado em actividades e tempo – TDABC, numa empresa industrial de conserva de pescado, Frescomar, S.A. Mais especificamente o trabalho desenvolveu-se na apuração do custo da área de produção da empresa objecto de estudo. O sistema de custeio Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing (TDABC) representa um modelo alternativo aos sistemas tradicionais da contabilidade de custos, e é uma evolução do Activity-Based Costing (ABC). O sistema ABC surgiu durante a década de 1980 e tem vindo a evoluir desde então. Muitas empresas abandonaram o ABC, pois este método de custeio, além de não conseguir captar a complexidade das suas operações, a sua implementação é demorado, e é muito dispendioso de aplicar e manter. Com o método TDABC encontra-se uma alternativa para dirimir estes problemas. Observou-se a necessidade do desenvolvimento de apenas algumas equações de tempo (time equations) para representar as principais actividades da área de produção. Foram observadas, durante a realização do estudo, vários dos benefícios do TDABC como: a facilidade em modelar actividades complexas por meio das equações de tempo, obtenção rigorosa de gastos e o baixo tempo de desenvolvimento do modelo. Contudo, também foram identificadas algumas limitações como subjectividade no cálculo do tempo de execução das actividades e dificuldade em se estimar as equações de tempo para actividades pouco estruturadas.

Qualidade de Vida no Trabalho. UM ESTUDO DE CASO NA EMPRESA SOCIEDADE INDUSTRIAL DE TINTAS S.A,

O presente trabalho de investigação debruça-se sobre a Qualidade de Vida no Trabalho (QVT), e conceptualiza-o como um estado de completo bem-estar biopsicossocial dentro das Organizações. O estudo teve como objectivo geral analisar a percepção da satisfação com a QVT dos colaboradores da empresa Caboverdiana de tintas, Sociedade Industrial de Tintas, S.A., (SITA). Especificamente objectivou-se quantificar a percepção do grau de satisfação dos trabalhadores com a sua QVT, observar a variação da QVT a partir da diferenças individuais, analisar as condições de trabalho, Higiene e Segurança na empresa e suscitar reflexões e contribuições sobre a importância e a necessidade de acções voltadas a instituir condições que agregam objectivamente valor na qualidade de vida do colaborador. A metodologia utilizada quanto aos objectivos do trabalho caracteriza-se como quantitativa e, quanto ao problema, de modelo exploratório. A operacionalização da mensuração dos indicadores de QVT através de uma escala de satisfação de 1 a 5 baseou-se no modelo de Richard Walton, mediante a aplicação de um questionário com perguntas fechadas e abertas. As conclusões mostram que os colaboradores da SITA estão moderadamente satisfeitos com a sua Qualidade de Vida no Trabalho pelo que existe deficiências.

Informe ambiental en la zona industrial pesquera de la bahía de Paracas, Pisco, Perú. 25 al 27 de Abril 1997

Presenta las características ambientales marítimas en la bahía de Paracas, en época de plena actividad productiva de las ocho plantas pesqueras ubicadas en la franja costera de la bahía mencionada.

Comment on recent modeling studies of astrocyte-neuron metabolic interactions.

Recent years have seen a surge in mathematical modeling of the various aspects of neuron-astrocyte interactions, and the field of brain energy metabolism is no exception in that regard. Despite the advent of biophysical models in the field, the long-lasting debate on the role of lactate in brain energy metabolism is still unresolved. Quite the contrary, it has been ported to the world of differential equations. Here, we summarize the present state of this discussion from the modeler's point of view and bring some crucial points to the attention of the non-mathematically proficient reader.