Constraining uncertainty in regional hydrologic impacts of climate change: Nonstationarity in downscaling

Regional impacts of climate change remain subject to large uncertainties accumulating from various sources, including those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios, and downscaling methods. Objective constraints to reduce the uncertainty in regional predictions have proven elusive. In most studies to date the nature of the downscaling relationship (DSR) used for such regional predictions has been assumed to remain unchanged in a future climate. However,studies have shown that climate change may manifest in terms of changes in frequencies of occurrence of the leading modes of variability, and hence, stationarity of DSRs is not really a valid assumption in regional climate impact assessment. This work presents an uncertainty modeling framework where, in addition to GCM and scenario uncertainty, uncertainty in the nature of the DSR is explored by linking downscaling with changes in frequencies of such modes of natural variability. Future projections of the regional hydrologic variable obtained by training a conditional random field (CRF) model on each natural cluster are combined using the weighted Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence combination. Each projection is weighted with the future projected frequency of occurrence of that cluster (''cluster linking'') and scaled by the GCM performance with respect to the associated cluster for the present period (''frequency scaling''). The D-S theory was chosen for its ability to express beliefs in some hypotheses, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The methodology is tested for predicting monsoon streamflow of the Mahanadi River at Hirakud Reservoir in Orissa, India. The results show an increasing probability of extreme, severe, and moderate droughts due to limate change. Significantly improved agreement between GCM predictions owing to cluster linking and frequency scaling is seen, suggesting that by linking regional impacts to natural regime frequencies, uncertainty in regional predictions can be realistically quantified. Additionally, by using a measure of GCM performance in simulating natural regimes, this uncertainty can be effectively constrained.

Effect of various factors influencing the delamination behavior of surfactant intercalated layered double hydroxides

The delamination-restacking behavior of a number of layered double hydroxides (LDHs) differing in [M-II]/[M-III] ratio, constituent metal ions and intercalated surfactant anions in different organic solvents has been studied. Colloidal dispersion due to delamination and the stability of the colloid obtained have been found to be not affected much by the nature of the constituent metal ions but increase with increase in the size of the surfactant anion. LDHs with low [M-II]/[M-III] ratio delaminate better than the ones with high [M-II]/[M-III] ratio. Delamination is best in alcohols such as 1-butanol, 1-hexanol, 1-octanol and I-decanol, while a little delamination occurs in nonpolar solvents such as hexane. In all the cases, the original layered solid could be obtained through restacking of layers from the colloidal dispersion.

Rannansiirtyminen ja ihmisen toimintaympäristön muutos Mätäjokilaakson alueella esihistoriallisella ajalla

In this thesis, I study the changing ladscape and human environment of the Mätäjoki Valley, West-Helsinki, using reconstructions and predictive modelling. The study is a part of a larger project funded by the city of Helsinki aming to map the past of the Mätäjoki Valley. The changes in landscape from an archipelago in the Ancylus Lake to a river valley are studied from 10000 to 2000 years ago. Alongside shore displacement, we look at the changing environment from human perspective and predict the location of dwelling sitesat various times. As a result, two map series were produced that show how the landscape changed and where inhabitance is predicted. To back them up, we have also looked at what previous research says about the history of the waterways, climate, vegetation and archaeology. The changing landscape of the river valley is reconstructed using GIS methods. For this purpose, new laser point data set was used and at the same time tested in the context landscape modelling. Dwelling sites were modeled with logistic regression analysis. The spatial predictive model combines data on the locations of the known dwelling sites, environmental factors and shore displacement data. The predictions were visualised into raster maps that show the predictions for inhabitance 3000 and 5000 years ago. The aim of these maps was to help archaeologists map potential spots for human activity. The produced landscape reconstructions clarified previous shore displacement studies of the Mätäjoki region and provided new information on the location of shoreline. From the shore displacement history of the Mätäjoki Valley arise the following stages: 1. The northernmost hills of the Mätäjoki Valley rose from Ancylus Lake approximately 10000 years ago. Shore displacement was fast during the following thousand years. 2. The area was an archipelago with a relatively steady shoreline 9000 7000 years ago. 8000 years ago the shoreline drew back in the middle and southern parts of the river valley because of the transgression of the Litorina Sea. 3. Mätäjoki was a sheltered bay of the Litorina Sea 6000 5000 years ago. The Vantaanjoki River started to flow into the Mätäjoki Valley approximately 5000 years ago. 4. The sediment plains in the southern part of the river valley rose from the sea rather quickly 5000 3000 years ago. Salt water still pushed its way into the southermost part of the valley 4000 years ago. 5. The shoreline proceeded to Pitäjänmäki rapids where it stayed at least a thousand years 3000 2000 years ago. The predictive models managed to predict the locations of dwelling sites moderately well. The most accurate predictions were found on the eastern shore and Malminkartano area. Of the environment variables sand and aspect of slope were found to have the best predictive power. From the results of this study we can conclude that the Mätäjoki Valley has been a favorable location to live especially 6000 5000 years ago when the climate was mild and vegetation lush. The laser point data set used here works best in shore displacement studies located in rural areas or if further specific palaeogeographic or hydrologic analysis in the research area is not needed.

Social factors at work and the health of employees

Masennus, ahdistuneisuus, alkoholiriippuvuus ja alkoholin väärinkäyttö sekä unihäiriöt ovat yleisiä ongelmia työssä käyvän väestön keskuudessa. Nämä sairaudet ja oireet aiheuttavat huomattavia kuluja myös yhteiskunnalle. Sosiaalisen tuen ja työilmapiirin yhteyttä työssä käyvien (n = 3 347–3 430) terveyteen tutkittiin Terveyden ja hyvinvoinnin laitoksen Terveys 2000 -aineistossa. Sosiaalista tukea työssä mitattiin JCQ-kyselyllä (Job Content Questionnaire) ja yksityiselämän sosiaalista tukea SSQ-kyselyllä (Social Support Questionnaire). Työilmapiiriä mitattiin kyselyllä, joka on osa Terve työyhteisö -kyselyä. Mielenterveyshäiriöiden diagnoosit perustuivat CIDI-haastatteluun (Composite International Diagnostic Interview). Tiedot lääkärin määräämistä masennus- ja unilääkkeistä poimittiin Kelan lääkerekisteristä ja tiedot työkyvyttömyyseläkkeistä Eläketurvakeskuksen ja Kelan rekistereistä. Ilmapiirin kokemisessa ei ollut merkitsevää eroa sukupuolten välillä. Sen sijaan naiset kokivat saavansa sosiaalista tukea enemmän sekä työssä että yksityiselämässä. Vähäinen sosiaalinen tuki sekä työssä että yksityiselämässä oli yhteydessä masennukseen, ahdistuneisuushäiriöihin ja moniin uniongelmiin. Huono työilmapiiri oli yhteydessä sekä masennukseen että ahdistuneisuushäiriöihin. Vähäinen tuki sekä esimiehiltä että työtovereilta oli yhteydessä myöhempään masennuslääkkeiden käyttöön. Huono työilmapiiri ennusti myös masennuslääkkeiden käyttöä. Vähäinen sosiaalinen tuki esimieheltä näytti lisäävän työkyvyttömyyseläkkeen todennäköisyyttä. Työhyvinvointiin täytyy kiinnittää huomiota, koska vähäinen sosiaalinen tuki ja huono työilmapiiri ovat yhteydessä mielenterveysongelmiin ja lisäävät työkyvyn menettämisen riskiä. – Englanninkielinen julkaisu. Suomenkielinen yhteenveto s. 89–90.

Diagnosis of dominant forcing factors for large-scale vertical velocities during active and break phases of the monsoon

An attempt to diagnose the dominant forcings which drive the large-scale vertical velocities over the monsoon region has been made by computing the forcings like diabatic heating fields,etc. and the large-scale vertical velocities driven by these forcings for the contrasting periods of active and break monsoon situations; in order to understand the rainfall variability associated with them. Computation of diabatic heating fields show us that among different components of diabatic heating it is the convective heating that dominates at mid-tropospheric levels during an active monsoon period; whereas it is the sensible heating at the surface that is important during a break period. From vertical velocity calculations we infer that the prime differences in the large-scale vertical velocities seen throughout the depth of the atmosphere are due to the differences in the orders of convective heating; the maximum rate of latent heating being more than 10 degrees Kelvin per day during an active monsoon period; whereas during a break monsoon period it is of the order of 2 degrees Kelvin per day at mid-tropospheric levels. At low levels of the atmosphere, computations show that there is large-scale ascent occurring over a large spatial region, driven only by the dynamic forcing associated with vorticity and temperature advection during an active monsoon period. However, during a break monsoon period such large-scale spatial organization in rising motion is not seen. It is speculated that these differences in the low-level large-scale ascent might be causing differences in convective heating because the weaker the low level ascent, the lesser the convective instability which produces deep cumulus clouds and hence lesser the associated latent heat release. The forcings due to other components of diabatic heating, namely, the sensible heating and long wave radiative cooling do not influence the large-scale vertical velocities significantly.

Recycling of the Posttermination Complexes of Mycobacterium smegmatis and Escherichia coli Ribosomes Using Heterologous Factors

In eubacteria, ribosome recycling factor (RRF) and elongation factor G (EFG) function together to dissociate posttermination ribosomal complexes. Earlier studies, using heterologous factors from Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Escherichia coli revealed that specific interactions between RRF and EFG are crucial for their function in ribosome recycling. Here, we used translation factors from E.coli,Mycobacterium smegmatis and M. tuberculosis, and polysomes from E. coli and M. smegmatis, and employed in vivo and in vitro experiments to further understand the role of EFG in ribosome recycling. We show thatE. coli EFG (EcoEFG) recycles E. coli ribosomes with E. coli REF (EcoRRF), but not with mycobacterial RRFs. Also, EcoEFG fails to recycle M. smegmatis ribosomes with either EcoRRF or mycobacterial RRFs. On the other hand, mycobacterial EFGs recycle both E. coli and M. smegmatis ribosomes with either of the RRFs. These observations suggest that EFG establishes distinct interactions with REF and the ribosome to carry out ribosome recycling. Furthermore, the EFG chimeras generated by swapping domains betweenmycobacterial EFGs and EcoEFG suggest that while the residues needed to specify the EFG interaction with REF arelocated in domains IV and V. those required to specify its interaction with the ribosome are located throughout the molecule. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interplay of Virulence Factors in Complement Resistance of Streptococcus pneumoniae

Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) is a normal inhabitant of the human nasopharynx. Symptoms occur in only a small proportion of those who become carriers, but the ubiquity of the organism in the human population results in a large burden of disease. S. pneumoniae is the leading bacterial cause of pneumonia, sepsis, and meningitis worldwide, causing the death of a million children each year. Middle-ear infection is the most common clinical manifestation of mucosal pneumococcal infections. In invasive disease, S. pneumoniae gains access to the bloodstream and spreads to normally sterile parts of the body. The progression from asymptomatic colonization to disease depends on factors characteristic of specific pneumococcal strains as well as the status of host defenses. The polysaccharide capsule surrounding the bacterium is considered to be the most important factor affecting the virulence of pneumococci. It protects pneumococci from phagocytosis and also may determine its affinity to the respiratory epithelium. S. pneumoniae as a species comprises more than 90 different capsular serotypes, but not all of them are equally prevalent in human diseases. Invasive serotypes are rarely isolated from healthy carriers, but relatively often cause invasive disease. Serotypes that are carried asymptomatically for a long time behave like opportunistic pathogens, causing disease in patients who have impaired immune defenses. The complement system is a collection of blood and cell surface proteins that act as a major primary defense against invading microbes. Phagocytic cells with receptors for complement proteins can engulf and destroy pneumococcal cells opsonized with these proteins. S. pneumoniae has evolved a number of ways to subvert mechanisms of innate immunity, and this is likely to contribute to its pathogenicity. The capsular serotype, proteins essential for virulence, as well the genotype, may all influence the ability of pneumococcus to resist complement and its potential to cause disease. Immunization with conjugate vaccines produces opsonic antibodies, which enhance complement deposition and clearance of the bacteria. The pneumococcal vaccine included in the Finnish national immunization program in 2010 contains the most common serotypes causing invasive disease. Clinical data suggest that protection from middle-ear infection and possibly also from invasive disease depends largely on the capsular serotype, for reasons hitherto unknown. The general aim of this thesis is to assess the relative roles of the pneumococcal capsule and virulence proteins in complement evasion and subsequent opsonophagocytic killing. The main question is whether differences between serotypes to resist complement explain the different abilities of serotypes to cause disease. The importance of particular virulence factors to the complement resistance of a strain may vary depending on its genotype. Prior studies have evaluated the effect of the capsule and virulence proteins on complement resistance of S. pneumoniae by comparing only a few strains. In this thesis, the role of pneumococcal virulence factors in the complement resistance of the bacterium was studied in several genotypically different strains. The ability of pneumococci to inhibit deposition of the complement protein C3 on the bacterial surface was found to depend on the capsular serotype as well as on other features of the bacteria. The results suggest that pneumococcal histidine triad (Pht) proteins may play a role in complement inhibition, but their contribution depends on the bacterial genotype. The capsular serotype was found to influence complement resistance more than the bacterial genotype. A higher concentration of anticapsular antibodies was required for the opsonophagocytic killing of serotypes resistant to C3 deposition. The invasive serotypes were more resistant to C3 deposition than the opportunistic serotypes, suggesting that the former are better adapted to resist immune mechanisms controlling the development of invasive disease. The different susceptibilities of serotypes to complement deposition, opsonophagocytosis, and resultant antibody-mediated protection should be taken into account when guidelines for serological correlates for vaccine efficacy evaluations are made. The results of this thesis suggest that antibodies in higher quantity or quality are needed for efficient protection against the invasive serotypes.

Coherence factors in excitonic insulators

Results of a theoretical study on ultrasonic attenuation and NMR relaxation in excitonic insulators are reported. The transition rates derived have anomalous temperature dependence owing to the occurrence of coherence factors analogous to the case of superconductors. It is found that these coherence factors are characteristically different for the interband and the intraband scattering processes. It is suggested that experimental observation of these temperature-dependent coherence factors may help identify the existence of an excitonic phase.

Merkel cell carcinoma : Epidemiological study with special reference to polyomavirus and vascular factors in pathogenesis

Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is a rare cutaneous malignancy that occurs predominantly on sun exposed skin areas. A new polyomavirus (MCPyV) was identified in MCC tumor tissues in 2008 suggesting that a viral infection might be an etiological factor. A typical MCC is a rapidly growing painless purple nodule. In its early stage it can be misjudged by its appearance as a cyst or abscess. Recurrences are common and approximately half of the patients will develop lymph node metastases and third of the patents will have distant metastases. It affects mostly elderly persons at an average age of 70 at the time of diagnosis. MCC was first described in 1972 and the first MCC patient in Finland was identified in 1983. MCC has been poorly recognized, but increased awareness and better diagnostic accuracy has increased the incidence since the early years. In this study, all cases with a notation of MCC during 1979 2008 were obtained from the Finnish Cancer Registry. Based on this data, the incidence is 0.11 for men and 0.12 for women. It is similar than that of other Nordic countries, but lower than in the USA. For clinical series, the files of patients diagnosed with MCC during 1983 2004 were reviewed, and the tissue samples were re-evaluated, if available (n=181). Third of the patients were men, and the most common site of the primary tumor was the head and neck (53%). The majority of the patients (86%) presented with a clinically node-negative (Stage I or II) disease, but the disease recurred in 38% of them. The treatment schemes were heterogeneous. No additional benefit from a wide margin (≥2 cm) was found compared to a margin of 0.1-1.9 cm, but intralesional excision was more often associated with local recurrence. None of the patients with Stage I-II disease who had received postoperative radiotherapy had local recurrence during the follow-up period. The 5-year relative survival ratio for Stage I disease was 68%, for Stage II 67%, for Stage III 16%, and for Stage IV 0%. The relative excess risk of death was significantly lower among women than among men. Some of these tissue samples were further analyzed for vascular invasion (n=126) by immunohistochemistry using vascular endothelial markers CD-31 and D2-40. Vascular invasion was seen in 93% of the samples and it was observed already in very small, <5mm tumors. The tissue samples were also analyzed for the presence of MCPyV by using a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and quantitative PCR. MCPyV DNA was present in 80% of 114 samples studied. The patients with virus-positive tumors had better overall survival than patients with virus-negative tumors. Immunohistochemical analyses were performed for the expression of VEGFR-2 (n=21) and endostatin (n=19), but they had no prognostic value. Our results support the concept of treating MCC with margin-negative excision and radiotherapy to the tumor bed to reduce local recurrence. The finding of a high frequency of lymphovascular invasion reduces its value as a prognostic factor, but emphasizes the role of sentinel node biopsy even in very small primary MCC.

Pre-eclampsia : The role of soluble VEGF receptor-1 and related anti-angiogenic factors beyond

Pre-eclampsia is a pregnancy complication that affects about 5% of all pregnancies. It is known to be associated with alterations in angiogenesis -related factors, such as vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF). An excess of antiangiogenic substances, especially the soluble receptor-1 of VEGF (sVEGFR-1), has been observed in maternal circulation after the onset of the disease, probably reflecting their increased placental production. Smoking reduces circulating concentrations of sVEGFR-1 in non-pregnant women, and in pregnant women it reduces the risk of pre-eclampsia. Soluble VEGFR-1 acts as a natural antagonist of VEGF and placental growth factor (PlGF) in human circulation, holding a promise for potential therapeutic use. In fact, it has been used as a model to generate a fusion protein, VEGF Trap , which has been found effective in anti-angiogenic treatment of certain tumors and ocular diseases. In the present study, we evaluated the potential use of maternal serum sVEGFR-1, Angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) and endostatin, three central anti-angiogenic markers, in early prediction of subsequent pre-eclampsia. We also studied whether smoking affects circulating sVEGFR-1 concentrations in pregnant women or their first trimester placental secretion and expression in vitro. Last, in order to allow future discussion on the potential therapy based on sVEGFR-1, we determined the biological half-life of endogenous sVEGFR-1 in human circulation, and measured the concomitant changes in free VEGF concentrations. Blood or placental samples were collected from a total of 268 pregnant women between the years 2001 2007 in Helsinki University Central Hospital for the purposes above. The biomarkers were measured using commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). For the analyses of sVEGFR-1, Ang-2 and endostatin, a total of 3 240 pregnant women in the Helsinki area were admitted to blood sample collection during two routine ultrasoundscreening visits at 13.7 ± 0.5 (mean ± SD) and 19.2 ± 0.6 weeks of gestation. Of them, 49 women later developing pre-eclampsia were included in the study. Their disease was further classified as mild in 29 and severe in 20 patients. Isolated early-onset intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR) was diagnosed in 16 women with otherwise normal medical histories and uncomplicated pregnancies. Fifty-nine women remaining normotensive, non-proteinuric and finally giving birth to normal-weight infants were picked to serve as the control population of the study. Maternal serum concentrations of Ang-2, endostatin and sVEGFR-1, were increased already at 16 20 weeks of pregnancy, about 13 weeks before the clinical manifestation of preeclampsia. In addition, these biomarkers could be used to identify women at risk with a moderate precision. However, larger patient series are needed to determine whether these markers could be applied for clinical use to predict preeclampsia. Intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR), especially if noted at early stages of pregnancy and not secondary to any other pregnancy complication, has been suggested to be a form of preeclampsia compromising only the placental sufficiency and the fetus, but not affecting the maternal endothelium. In fact, IUGR and preeclampsia have been proposed to share a common vascular etiology in which factors regulating early placental angiogenesis are likely to play a central role. Thus, these factors have been suggested to be involved in the pathogenesis of IUGR. However, circulating sVEGFR-1, Ang-2 and endostatin concentrations were unaffected by subsequent IUGR at early second trimester. Furthermore, smoking was not associated with alterations in maternal circulating sVEGFR-1 or its placental production. The elimination of endogenous sVEGFR-1 after pregnancy was calculated from serial samples of eight pregnant women undergoing elective Caesarean section. As typical for proteins in human compartments, the elimination of sVEGFR-1 was biphasic, containing a rapid halflife of 3.4 h and a slow one of 29 h. The decline in sVEGFR-1 concentrations after mid-trimester legal termination of pregnancy was accompanied with a simultaneous increase in the serum levels of free VEGF so that within a few days after pregnancy VEGF dominated in the maternal circulation. Our study provides novel information on the kinetics of endogenous sVEGFR-1, which serves as a potential tool in the development of new strategies against diseases associated with angiogenic imbalance and alterations in VEGF signaling.

Plant communities of field margins : the effects of management and environmental factors on species composition and diversity

Agri-environmental schemes have so far resulted in only minor positive implications for the biodiversity of agricultural environments, in contrast to what has been expected. Land-use intensification has decreased landscape heterogeneity and the amount of semi-natural habitats. Field margins are uncultivated areas of permanent vegetation located adjacent to fields. Since the number of these habitats is high, investing in their quality may result in more diverse agricultural landscapes. Field margins can be considered as multifunctional habitats providing agronomic, environmental and wildlife services. This thesis aimed at examining the plant communities of different types of field margin habitats and the factors affecting their species diversity and composition. The importance of edaphic, spatial and management factors was studied on regional, landscape and habitat scales. Vegetation surveys were conducted on regional and landscape scales and a field experiment on cutting management was conducted on a habitat scale. In field margin plant communities, species appeared to be indicators of high or intermediate soil fertility and moist soil conditions. The plant species diversity found was rather low, compared with most species-rich agricultural habitats in Finland, such as dry meadows. Among regions, land-use history, main production line, natural species and human induced distribution, climate and edaphic factors were elements inducing differences in species composition. The lowest regional species diversity of field margins was related to intensive and long-term cereal production. Management by cutting and removal or grazing had a positive effect on plant species diversity. The positive effect of cutting and removal on species richness was also dependent on the adjacent source of colonizing species. Therefore, in species-poor habitats and landscapes, establishment of margins with diverse seed mixtures can be recommended for enhancing the development of species richness. However, seed mixtures should include only native species preferably local origin. Management by cutting once a year for 5 years did not result in a decline in dominance of a harmful weed species, Elymus repens, showing that E. repens probably needs cutting more frequently than once per year. Agri-environmental schemes should include long-term contracts with farmers for the establishment, and management by cutting and removal or grazing, of field margins that are several metres wide. In such schemes, the timing and frequency of management should be planned so as not to harm other taxa, such as the insects and birds that are dependent on these habitats. All accidental herbicide drifts to field margins should be avoided when spraying the cultivated area to minimize the negative effects of sprayings on vegetation. The harmful effects of herbicides can be avoided by organic farming methods.