Melt inclusions from volcan de Colima, Mexico: complex examples of magmatic differentiation

Melt inclusions are minute magma bodies trapped within growing crystals. Their chemical compositions are useful in deciphering pre-eruptive conditions and magma evolution. The present study examined melt inclusions trapped in phenocrysts from the 3rd and 4th magmatic cycles (1869-1988) at Volcan de Colima, Mexico. Melt inclusions have highly evolved chemical compositions: 65-77% SiO2, >12% A12O3, 3-6% Na2O and K20 and less than 5.5% Fe and Mg. Major element compositions suggest that they are strongly differentiated magmas controlled by fractionation of plagioclase, opx, cpx and hornblende. Water concentrations were measured to be 2.7-3.5 wt. % in cpx hosted inclusions and 0.3-0.7 wt % in opx and plagioclase. Trace element compositions are anomalously low and inversely correlate with water. From this we deduce that Colima lavas and scorias simultaneously differentiate and degas. Moreover, hornblende rim growth rates constrain the ascent of the Colima magmas to -100 days for passive eruptions and >4 days for plinian eruptions.

A Study of Stock Market Fluctuations and their Relations to Business Conditions

Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubble-like deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the non-fundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.

The Development of High Performance Liquid Chromatography Systems for the Analysis of Improvised Explosives

Existing instrumental techniques must be adaptable to the analysis of novel explosives if science is to keep up with the practices of terrorists and criminals. The focus of this work has been the development of analytical techniques for the analysis of two types of novel explosives: ascorbic acid-based propellants, and improvised mixtures of concentrated hydrogen peroxide/fuel. In recent years, the use of these explosives in improvised explosive devices (IEDs) has increased. It is therefore important to develop methods which permit the identification of the nature of the original explosive from post-blast residues. Ascorbic acid-based propellants are low explosives which employ an ascorbic acid fuel source with a nitrate/perchlorate oxidizer. A method which utilized ion chromatography with indirect photometric detection was optimized for the analysis of intact propellants. Post-burn and post-blast residues if these propellants were analyzed. It was determined that the ascorbic acid fuel and nitrate oxidizer could be detected in intact propellants, as well as in the post-burn and post-blast residues. Degradation products of the nitrate and perchlorate oxidizers were also detected. With a quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometer (QToFMS), exact mass measurements are possible. When an HPLC instrument is coupled to a QToFMS, the combination of retention time with accurate mass measurements, mass spectral fragmentation information, and isotopic abundance patterns allows for the unequivocal identification of a target analyte. An optimized HPLC-ESI-QToFMS method was applied to the analysis of ascorbic acid-based propellants. Exact mass measurements were collected for the fuel and oxidizer anions, and their degradation products. Ascorbic acid was detected in the intact samples and half of the propellants subjected to open burning; the intact fuel molecule was not detected in any of the post-blast residue. Two methods were optimized for the analysis of trace levels of hydrogen peroxide: HPLC with fluorescence detection (HPLC-FD), and HPLC with electrochemical detection (HPLC-ED). Both techniques were extremely selective for hydrogen peroxide. Both methods were applied to the analysis of post-blast debris from improvised mixtures of concentrated hydrogen peroxide/fuel; hydrogen peroxide was detected on variety of substrates. Hydrogen peroxide was detected in the post-blast residues of the improvised explosives TATP and HMTD.

The Construction and Optimization on an Ion Mobility Spectrometer for the Analysis of Explosives and Drugs

Today, over 15,000 Ion Mobility Spectrometry (IMS) analyzers are employed at worldwide security checkpoints to detect explosives and illicit drugs. Current portal IMS instruments and other electronic nose technologies detect explosives and drugs by analyzing samples containing the headspace air and loose particles residing on a surface. Canines can outperform these systems at sampling and detecting the low vapor pressure explosives and drugs, such as RDX, PETN, cocaine, and MDMA, because these biological detectors target the volatile signature compounds available in the headspace rather than the non-volatile parent compounds of explosives and drugs. In this dissertation research volatile signature compounds available in the headspace over explosive and drug samples were detected using SPME as a headspace sampling tool coupled to an IMS analyzer. A Genetic Algorithm (GA) technique was developed to optimize the operating conditions of a commercial IMS (GE Itemizer 2), leading to the successful detection of plastic explosives (Detasheet, Semtex H, and C-4) and illicit drugs (cocaine, MDMA, and marijuana). Short sampling times (between 10 sec to 5 min) were adequate to extract and preconcentrate sufficient analytes (> 20 ng) representing the volatile signatures in the headspace of a 15 mL glass vial or a quart-sized can containing ≤ 1 g of the bulk explosive or drug. Furthermore, a research grade IMS with flexibility for changing operating conditions and physical configurations was designed and fabricated to accommodate future research into different analytes or physical configurations. The design and construction of the FIU-IMS were facilitated by computer modeling and simulation of ion’s behavior within an IMS. The simulation method developed uses SIMION/SDS and was evaluated with experimental data collected using a commercial IMS (PCP Phemto Chem 110). The FIU-IMS instrument has comparable performance to the GE Itemizer 2 (average resolving power of 14, resolution of 3 between two drugs and two explosives, and LODs range from 0.7 to 9 ng). The results from this dissertation further advance the concept of targeting volatile components to presumptively detect the presence of concealed bulk explosives and drugs by SPME-IMS, and the new FIU-IMS provides a flexible platform for future IMS research projects.

The potential of solid phase microextraction (spme) for the recovery of explosives followed by gas and liquid chromatographic analysis

The potential of solid phase microextraction (SPME) in the analysis of explosives is demonstrated. A sensitive, rapid, solventless and inexpensive method for the analysis of explosives and explosive odors from solid and liquid samples has been optimized using SPME followed by HPLC and GC/ECD. SPME involves the extraction of the organic components in debris samples into sorbent-coated silica fibers, which can be transferred directly to the injector of a gas chromatograph. SPME/HPLC requires a special desorption apparatus to elute the extracted analyte onto the column at high pressure. Re suits for use of GC[ECD is presented and compared to the results gathered by using HPLC analysis. The relative effects of controllable variables including fiber chemistry, adsorption and desorption temperature, extraction time, and desorption time have been optimized for various high explosives.

Estudo da transição de fase da percolação através da entropia da informação

Various physical systems have dynamics that can be modeled by percolation processes. Percolation is used to study issues ranging from fluid diffusion through disordered media to fragmentation of a computer network caused by hacker attacks. A common feature of all of these systems is the presence of two non-coexistent regimes associated to certain properties of the system. For example: the disordered media can allow or not allow the flow of the fluid depending on its porosity. The change from one regime to another characterizes the percolation phase transition. The standard way of analyzing this transition uses the order parameter, a variable related to some characteristic of the system that exhibits zero value in one of the regimes and a nonzero value in the other. The proposal introduced in this thesis is that this phase transition can be investigated without the explicit use of the order parameter, but rather through the Shannon entropy. This entropy is a measure of the uncertainty degree in the information content of a probability distribution. The proposal is evaluated in the context of cluster formation in random graphs, and we apply the method to both classical percolation (Erd¨os- R´enyi) and explosive percolation. It is based in the computation of the entropy contained in the cluster size probability distribution and the results show that the transition critical point relates to the derivatives of the entropy. Furthermore, the difference between the smooth and abrupt aspects of the classical and explosive percolation transitions, respectively, is reinforced by the observation that the entropy has a maximum value in the classical transition critical point, while that correspondence does not occurs during the explosive percolation.

Estudo da transição de fase da percolação através da entropia da informação

Various physical systems have dynamics that can be modeled by percolation processes. Percolation is used to study issues ranging from fluid diffusion through disordered media to fragmentation of a computer network caused by hacker attacks. A common feature of all of these systems is the presence of two non-coexistent regimes associated to certain properties of the system. For example: the disordered media can allow or not allow the flow of the fluid depending on its porosity. The change from one regime to another characterizes the percolation phase transition. The standard way of analyzing this transition uses the order parameter, a variable related to some characteristic of the system that exhibits zero value in one of the regimes and a nonzero value in the other. The proposal introduced in this thesis is that this phase transition can be investigated without the explicit use of the order parameter, but rather through the Shannon entropy. This entropy is a measure of the uncertainty degree in the information content of a probability distribution. The proposal is evaluated in the context of cluster formation in random graphs, and we apply the method to both classical percolation (Erd¨os- R´enyi) and explosive percolation. It is based in the computation of the entropy contained in the cluster size probability distribution and the results show that the transition critical point relates to the derivatives of the entropy. Furthermore, the difference between the smooth and abrupt aspects of the classical and explosive percolation transitions, respectively, is reinforced by the observation that the entropy has a maximum value in the classical transition critical point, while that correspondence does not occurs during the explosive percolation.

Medium change monitoring using ambient seismic noise and coda wave interferometry: examples from intraplate NE Brazil and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge

This thesis presents and discusses the results of ambient seismic noise correlation for two different environments: intraplate and Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The coda wave interferometry method has also been tested for the intraplate data. Ambient noise correlation is a method that allows to retrieve the structural response between two receivers from ambient noise records, as if one of the station was a virtual source. It has been largely used in seismology to image the subsurface and to monitor structural changes associated mostly with volcanic eruptions and large earthquakes. In the intraplate study, we were able to detect localized structural changes related to a small earthquake swarm, which main event is mR 3.7, North-East of Brazil. We also showed that the 1-bit normalization and spectral whitening result on the loss of waveform details and that the phase auto-correlation, which is amplitude unbiased, seems to be more sensitive and robust for our analysis of a small earthquake swarm. The analysis of 6 months of data using cross-correlations detect clear medium changes soon after the main event while the auto-correlations detect changes essentially after 1 month. It could be explained by fluid pressure redistribution which can be initiated by hydromechanical changes and opened path ways to shallower depth levels due to later occurring earthquakes. In the Mid-Atlantic Ridge study, we investigate structural changes associated with a mb 4.9 earthquake in the region of the Saint Paul transform fault. The data have been recorded by a single broadband seismic station located at less than 200 km from the Mid-Atlantic ridge. The results of the phase auto-correlation for a 5-month period, show a strong co-seismic medium change followed by a relatively fast post-seismic recovery. This medium change is likely related to the damages caused by the earthquake’s ground shaking. The healing process (filling of the new cracks) that lasted 60 days can be decomposed in two phases, a fast recovery (70% in ~30 days) in the early post-seismic stage and a relatively slow recovery later (30% in ~30 days). In the coda wave interferometry study, we monitor temporal changes of the subsurface caused by the small intraplate earthquake swarm mentioned previously. The method was first validated with synthetics data. We were able to detect a change of 2.5% in the source position and a 15% decrease of the scatterers’ amount. Then, from the real data, we observed a rapid decorrelation of the seismic coda after the mR 3.7 seismic event. This indicates a rapid change of the subsurface in the fault’s region induced by the earthquake.

Medium change monitoring using ambient seismic noise and coda wave interferometry: examples from intraplate NE Brazil and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge

This thesis presents and discusses the results of ambient seismic noise correlation for two different environments: intraplate and Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The coda wave interferometry method has also been tested for the intraplate data. Ambient noise correlation is a method that allows to retrieve the structural response between two receivers from ambient noise records, as if one of the station was a virtual source. It has been largely used in seismology to image the subsurface and to monitor structural changes associated mostly with volcanic eruptions and large earthquakes. In the intraplate study, we were able to detect localized structural changes related to a small earthquake swarm, which main event is mR 3.7, North-East of Brazil. We also showed that the 1-bit normalization and spectral whitening result on the loss of waveform details and that the phase auto-correlation, which is amplitude unbiased, seems to be more sensitive and robust for our analysis of a small earthquake swarm. The analysis of 6 months of data using cross-correlations detect clear medium changes soon after the main event while the auto-correlations detect changes essentially after 1 month. It could be explained by fluid pressure redistribution which can be initiated by hydromechanical changes and opened path ways to shallower depth levels due to later occurring earthquakes. In the Mid-Atlantic Ridge study, we investigate structural changes associated with a mb 4.9 earthquake in the region of the Saint Paul transform fault. The data have been recorded by a single broadband seismic station located at less than 200 km from the Mid-Atlantic ridge. The results of the phase auto-correlation for a 5-month period, show a strong co-seismic medium change followed by a relatively fast post-seismic recovery. This medium change is likely related to the damages caused by the earthquake’s ground shaking. The healing process (filling of the new cracks) that lasted 60 days can be decomposed in two phases, a fast recovery (70% in ~30 days) in the early post-seismic stage and a relatively slow recovery later (30% in ~30 days). In the coda wave interferometry study, we monitor temporal changes of the subsurface caused by the small intraplate earthquake swarm mentioned previously. The method was first validated with synthetics data. We were able to detect a change of 2.5% in the source position and a 15% decrease of the scatterers’ amount. Then, from the real data, we observed a rapid decorrelation of the seismic coda after the mR 3.7 seismic event. This indicates a rapid change of the subsurface in the fault’s region induced by the earthquake.

Climate variability in the Aegean Sea (marine record M2, Athos basin) during the past 1500 years

We provide new evidence on sea surface temperature (SST) variations and paleoceanographic/paleoenvironmental changes over the past 1500 years for the north Aegean Sea (NE Mediterranean). The reconstructions are based on multiproxy analyses, obtained from the high resolution (decadal to multi-decadal) marine record M2 retrieved from the Athos basin. Reconstructed SSTs show an increase from ca. 850 to 950 AD and from ca. 1100 to 1300 AD. A cooling phase of almost 1.5 °C is observed from ca. 1600 AD to 1700 AD. This seems to have been the starting point of a continuous SST warming trend until the end of the reconstructed period, interrupted by two prominent cooling events at 1832 ± 15 AD and 1995 ± 1 AD. Application of an adaptive Kernel smoothing suggests that the current warming in the reconstructed SSTs of the north Aegean might be unprecedented in the context of the past 1500 years. Internal variability in atmospheric/oceanic circulations systems as well as external forcing as solar radiation and volcanic activity could have affected temperature variations in the north Aegean Sea over the past 1500 years. The marked temperature drop of approximately ~2 °C at 1832 ± 15 yr AD could be related to the 1809 ?D 'unknown' and the 1815 AD Tambora volcanic eruptions. Paleoenvironmental proxy-indices of the M2 record show enhanced riverine/continental inputs in the northern Aegean after ca. 1450 AD. The paleoclimatic evidence derived from the M2 record is combined with a socio-environmental study of the history of the north Aegean region. We show that the cultivation of temperature-sensitive crops, i.e. walnut, vine and olive, co-occurred with stable and warmer temperatures, while its end coincided with a significant episode of cooler temperatures. Periods of agricultural growth in Macedonia coincide with periods of warmer and more stable SSTs, but further exploration is required in order to identify the causal links behind the observed phenomena. The Black Death likely caused major changes in agricultural activity in the north Aegean region, as reflected in the pollen data from land sites of Macedonia and the M2 proxy-reconstructions. Finally, we conclude that the early modern peaks in mountain vegetation in the Rhodope and Macedonia highlands, visible also in the M2 record, were very likely climate-driven.

Histories and Historiographies of Juvenile Delinquency in Nineteenth-Century England

This thesis explores the history of juvenile delinquency in England during the decades bracketing the nineteenth century’s turn and how modern historians have analyzed this period. The purported birth of juvenile delinquency during this tumultuous period is widely attributed by both historians and Victorians to the explosive growth in England’s urban population. Contemporary statistics of criminal prosecutions confirmed emergent literary tropes that viewed childhoods spent on city streets as inevitably corrupting. Public policy and private charity for more than a century thereafter would recommend removal from the city’s corrupting cultural influences to a highly romanticized vision of rural space as healing innocence. This thesis challenges the juxtaposition of country and city on which such explanations of juvenile delinquency rest. Utilizing the neglected testimony of magistrates, constables, rural residents, and juvenile criminals themselves, it will demonstrate that rural England also suffered from increasing juvenile crime in this period. It will illuminate the complex social, economic, and political dynamics responsible for the oft-cited statistical gap between rural and urban arrest rates, showing that the latter were in neither case transparent measures of criminal activity. Crime was on the rise in English rural counties as transformed by industrial capitalism as were England’s booming cities, suggesting that historians who continue to emphasize the dichotomy between the city and the country have not only recycled a Victorian narrative but also limited their own understandings of the time.

Chemistry of Pliocene-Pleistocene pumice from the Izu-Bonin Arc

Thick pumice deposits were found in the cored sequences of forearc, arc, and backarc sites of Leg 126 in the Izu-Bonin Arc. These deposits, composed of fragmental rhyolite pumice with the chemical composition of low-alkali tholeiites, are products of arc volcanism. Pumice deposits constitute more than half of the thickness of the sediment fill of the Sumisu Rift, a backarc rift of the Izu-Bonin Arc. They comprise five thick pumiceous beds separated by thin hemipelagic units; as such, they record four major episodes or pulses of explosive, rhyolitic volcanism during the last 0.15 Ma, separated by quiescent intervals that each lasted about 30-60 k.y. The thick pumiceous beds were deposited in the rift mainly by sediment gravity flows during and immediately after the eruption of arc volcanos, which were probably submarine. Initiation of rifting was also preceded in the Pliocene by submarine rhyolitic volcanism, as seen in samples from the top of the eastern rift flank. Thick pumice beds correlative with those in the backarc also occur in the forearc basin to the east.

Chemical composition of tephra from the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian-Sea

Explosive ocean island volcanism in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea (GIN Sea) is indicated by marine tephra layers at 10-300 ka. Peaks of explosive volcanism occurred in oxygen isotope stages 8, 7, 5 and 1. The depositional age of the tephra was estimated using the oxygen isotope stratigraphy and dating of marine records. Geochemical analyses of the tephra layers show that all originate from Iceland. Here we report the characteristics of tephra from these major Icelandic events in 30 deep-sea cores from the GIN Sea. Our findings provide constraints on the distribution of tephra from the eruption source. For the Vedde Ash (oxygen isotope stage 1) we estimate a minimum fallout area of 2*10**5 km**2, stretching from central Greenland in the west and southern Sweden in the east, to 71°N in the GIN Sea. The magnitude of the eruption and the regional wind conditions controlled the extent and concentrations of these ash fallout events. Oceanic circulation and differential settling may have affected the distribution and final deposition of ash particles such as bubble wall shards.

Stable isotopes, radionuclides, and calculated sea surface temperature of two sediment cores in the Sicily Channel

The Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT) occurred in the Aegean Sea from 1988 to 1995 and is the most significant intermediate-to-deep Mediterranean overturning perturbation reported by instrumental records. The EMT was likely caused by accumulation of high salinity waters in the Levantine and enhanced heat loss in the Aegean Sea, coupled with surface water freshening in the Sicily Channel. It is still unknown whether similar transients occurred in the past and, if so, what their forcing processes were. In this study, sediments from the Sicily Channel document surface water freshening (SCFR) at 1910±12, 1812±18, 1725±25 and 1580±30 CE. A regional ocean hindcast links SCFR to enhanced deep-water production and in turn to strengthened Mediterranean thermohaline circulation. Independent evidence collected in the Aegean Sea supports this reconstruction, showing that enhanced bottom water ventilation in the Eastern Mediterranean was associated with each SCFR event. Comparison between the records and multi-decadal atmospheric circulation patterns and climatic external forcings indicates that Mediterranean circulation destabilisation occurs during positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) phases, reduced solar activity and strong tropical volcanic eruptions. They may have recurrently produced favourable deep-water formation conditions, both increasing salinity and reducing temperature on multi-decadal time scales.