Computing probable maximum loss in catastrophe reinsurance portfolios on multi-core and many-core architectures

In the reinsurance market, the risks natural catastrophes pose to portfolios of properties must be quantified, so that they can be priced, and insurance offered. The analysis of such risks at a portfolio level requires a simulation of up to 800 000 trials with an average of 1000 catastrophic events per trial. This is sufficient to capture risk for a global multi-peril reinsurance portfolio covering a range of perils including earthquake, hurricane, tornado, hail, severe thunderstorm, wind storm, storm surge and riverine flooding, and wildfire. Such simulations are both computation and data intensive, making the application of high-performance computing techniques desirable.

In this paper, we explore the design and implementation of portfolio risk analysis on both multi-core and many-core computing platforms. Given a portfolio of property catastrophe insurance treaties, key risk measures, such as probable maximum loss, are computed by taking both primary and secondary uncertainties into account. Primary uncertainty is associated with whether or not an event occurs in a simulated year, while secondary uncertainty captures the uncertainty in the level of loss due to the use of simplified physical models and limitations in the available data. A combination of fast lookup structures, multi-threading and careful hand tuning of numerical operations is required to achieve good performance. Experimental results are reported for multi-core processors and systems using NVIDIA graphics processing unit and Intel Phi many-core accelerators.

Methodological variations in estimating apparent progressive visual field loss in clinical trials of glaucoma treatment.

OBJECTIVES:

To compare methods to estimate the incidence of visual field progression used by 3 large randomized trials of glaucoma treatment by applying these methods to a common data set of annually obtained visual field measurements of patients with glaucoma followed up for an average of 6 years.

METHODS:

The methods used by the Advanced Glaucoma Intervention Study (AGIS), the Collaborative Initial Glaucoma Treatment Study (CIGTS), and the Early Manifest Glaucoma Treatment study (EMGT) were applied to 67 eyes of 56 patients with glaucoma enrolled in a 10-year natural history study of glaucoma using Program 30-2 of the Humphrey Field Analyzer (Humphrey Instruments, San Leandro, Calif). The incidence of apparent visual field progression was estimated for each method. Extent of agreement between the methods was calculated, and time to apparent progression was compared.

RESULTS:

The proportion of patients progressing was 11%, 22%, and 23% with AGIS, CIGTS, and EMGT methods, respectively. Clinical assessment identified 23% of patients who progressed, but only half of these were also identified by CIGTS or EMGT methods. The CIGTS and the EMGT had comparable incidence rates, but only half of those identified by 1 method were also identified by the other.

CONCLUSIONS:

The EMGT and CIGTS methods produced rates of apparent progression that were twice those of the AGIS method. Although EMGT, CIGTS, and clinical assessment rates were comparable, they did not identify the same patients as having had field progression.

Traffic gap judgment in people with significant peripheral field loss.

PURPOSE: Subjects with significant peripheral field loss (PFL) self report difficulty in street crossing. In this study, we compared the traffic gap judgment ability of fully sighted and PFL subjects to determine whether accuracy in identifying crossable gaps was adversely affected because of field loss. Moreover, we explored the contribution of visual and nonvisual factors to traffic gap judgment ability. METHODS: Eight subjects with significant PFL as a result of advanced retinitis pigmentosa or glaucoma with binocular visual field <20 degrees and five age-matched normals (NV) were recruited. All subjects were required to judge when they perceived it was safe to cross at a 2-way 4-lane street while they stood on the curb. Eye movements were recorded by an eye tracker as the subjects performed the decision task. Movies of the eye-on-scene were made offline and fixation patterns were classified into either relevant or irrelevant. Subjects' street-crossing behavior, habitual approach to street crossing, and perceived difficulties were assessed. RESULTS: Compared with normal vision (NV) subjects, the PFL subjects identified 12% fewer crossable gaps while making 23% more errors by identifying a gap as crossable when it was too short (p < 0.05). The differences in traffic gap judgment ability of the PFL subjects might be explained by the significantly smaller fixation area (p = 0.006) and fewer fixations distributed to the relevant tasks (p = 0.001). The subjects' habitual approach to street crossing and perceived difficulties in street crossing (r > 0.60) were significantly correlated with traffic gap judgment performance. CONCLUSIONS: As a consequence of significant field loss, limited visual information about the traffic environment can be acquired, resulting in significantly reduced performance in judging safe crossable gaps. This poor traffic gap judgment ability in the PFL subjects raises important concerns for their safety when attempting to cross the street.

Endothelial cell loss and surgically induced astigmatism after sutureless large-incision manual cataract extraction (SLIMCE).

OBJECTIVES:

To describe a modified manual cataract extraction technique, sutureless large-incision manual cataract extraction (SLIMCE), and to report its clinical outcomes.

METHODS:

Case notes of 50 consecutive patients with cataract surgery performed using the SLIMCE technique were retrospectively reviewed. Clinical outcomes 3 months after surgery were analyzed, including postoperative uncorrected visual acuity, best-corrected visual acuity, intraoperative and postoperative complications, endothelial cell loss, and surgically induced astigmatism using the vector analysis method.

RESULTS:

At the 3-month follow-up, all 50 patients had postoperative best-corrected visual acuity of at least 20/60, and 37 patients (74%) had visual acuity of at least 20/30. Uncorrected visual acuity was at least 20/68 in 28 patients (56%) and was between 20/80 and 20/200 in 22 patients (44%). No significant intraoperative complications were encountered, and sutureless wounds were achieved in all but 2 patients. At the 3-month follow-up, endothelial cell loss was 3.9%, and the mean surgically induced astigmatism was 0.69 diopter.

CONCLUSIONS:

SLIMCE is a safe and effective manual cataract extraction technique with low rates of surgically induced astigmatism and endothelial cell loss. In view of its low cost, SLIMCE may have a potential role in reducing cataract blindness in developing countries.

Forced Displacement, Suffering and the Aesthetics of Loss

This article investigates how artists have addressed shocking experiences of displacement in different political contexts. Drawing on the notion of ‘the aesthetics of loss’ (Köstlin, 2010), it examines and compares the different aims, desires and strategies that have shaped the histories and social lives of paintings, memorial statues, installations and other artefacts. The analysis identifies a mode of artistic engagement with the sense of a ‘loss of homeland’ that has been commonly felt amongst Sudeten German expellees, namely the production and framing of visual images as markers of collective trauma. These aesthetics of loss are contrasted with the approach taken by the Dutch artist Sophie Ernst in her project entitled HOME. Working with displaced people from Pakistan, India, Palestine, Israel and Iraq, she created a mnemonic space to stimulate a more individualistic, exploratory engagement with the loss of home, which aimed, in part, to elicit interpersonal empathy. To simply oppose these two modes of aesthetic engagement, however, would ignore the ways in which artefacts are drawn into different discursive, affective and spatial formations. This article argues for the need to expose such dynamic processes of framing and reframing by focusing on the processual aspects of aestheticisation with attention to the perspective of loss.

Addiction to Runx1 is partially attenuated by loss of p53 in the Eµ-Myc lymphoma model

The Runx genes function as dominant oncogenes that collaborate potently with Myc or loss of p53 to induce lymphoma when over-expressed. Here we examined the requirement for basal Runx1 activity for tumor maintenance in the Eµ-Myc model of Burkitt's lymphoma. While normal Runx1fl/fl lymphoid cells permit mono-allelic deletion, primary Eµ-Myc lymphomas showed selection for retention of both alleles and attempts to enforce deletion in vivo led to compensatory expansion of p53null blasts retaining Runx1. Surprisingly, Runx1 could be excised completely from established Eµ-Myc lymphoma cell lines in vitro without obvious effects on cell phenotype. Established lines lacked functional p53, and were sensitive to death induced by introduction of a temperature-sensitive p53 (Val135) allele. Transcriptome analysis of Runx1-deleted cells revealed a gene signature associated with lymphoid proliferation, survival and differentiation, and included strong de-repression of recombination-activating (Rag) genes, an observation that was mirrored in a panel of human acute leukemias where RUNX1 and RAG1,2 mRNA expression were negatively correlated. Notably, despite their continued growth and tumorigenic potential, Runx1null lymphoma cells displayed impaired proliferation and markedly increased sensitivity to DNA damage and dexamethasone-induced apoptosis, validating Runx1 function as a potential therapeutic target in Myc-driven lymphomas regardless of their p53 status.

Capture and loss of electron by MeV ions penetrating through liquid spray:Formation of negative ion and neutral atom beams

Charge changing processes of MeV ions penetrating through liquid spray is confirmed to be abundant source of various energetic negative ion and neutral atom beams its generic nature is demonstrated.

Comportamento pós-colheita da ameixa 'Raínha Cláudia Verde' Prunus domestica L. : efeitos do cálcio na maturação

`Rainha Cláudia Verde' é uma antiga variedade da ameixeira europeia Prunus domestica L. que se encontra bem adaptada a uma zona restrita do Alto Alentejo. Esta variedade é utilizada para o consumo em fresco e na doçaria regional, onde se emprega na confecção das famosas 'Ameixas D'Elvas'. A confitagem é a técnica utilizada na confecção deste produto com denomicação de origem protegida, e que faz parte de um saber tradicional muito divulgado na região. As informações que resultam de evidências práticas mostram que nem todos os frutos reagem da mesma forma à fase da cozedura. Existem zonas específicas que produzem frutos que não se adequara processo da confitagem, apresentando uma textura imprópria após a cozedura. Recentemente, e com o aumento das áreas produtoras, verificou-se que os frutos destas regiões específicas para além de inadequados para a cozedura, também apresentavam uma menor capacidade de conservação em fresco. Assim durante a conservação estes frutos, quando comparados com os das outras regiões, apresentavam uma perda de firmeza mais rápida tornando-se mais difíceis de comercializar. Entre os factores culturais que contribuem para a qualidade pós-colheita dos frutos, o teor de cálcio presente no solo e nos frutos apresenta-se corno um dos mais importantes. O cálcio é um dos nutrientes que mais frequentemente é associado à manutenção da estrutura das paredes celulares das plantas, estando envolvido directamente na redução das perdas de textura dos frutos. Tendo em consideração os aspectos anteriormente referidos, foi delineado um trabalho que teve início com a selecção de dois pomares geograficamente distantes, e que tradicionalmente produziam frutos com diferentes comportamentos quer durante a conservação quer durante a confitagem. Associada ao conhecimento empírico, a prévia indicação de que estes pomares apresentavam concentrações cle cálcio foliar significativamente diferentes, contribuiu também para a sua selecção. O objectivo geral desta tese foi o de investigar o comportamento pós-colheita da `Rainha Cláudia Verde' particularmente a influência do cálcio na textura dos frutos. Definiram-se os seguintes objectivos específicos: (1) determinar a influência do porta-enxerto e do solo na concentração de cálcio dos frutos e as respectivas consequências, no seu comportamento pós-colheita; (2) seleccionar um método que permitisse avaliar a produção de etileno dos frutos e consequentemente a atribuição da designação de fruto climatérico ou não climatérico a esta variedade; (3) avaliar os e Feitos durante a conservação, de diferentes níveis de cálcio nos frutos; (4) quantificar nos frutos os níveis de cálcio da parede celular e avaliar a sua influência na firmeza dos frutos; (5) seleccionar as melhores temperaturas de conservação para os frutos desta variedade. Os resultados apresentados nesta tese indicam que a variedade 'Rainha Cláudia Verde' é uma variedade de frutos climatéricos que apresentam uma acentuada perda de textura após a colheita. Durante a conservação frigorífica os frutos apresentaram comportamentos diferentes, de acordo com a sua origem. Os frutos com origem no pomar que tradicionalmente não produz frutos aptos a serem confitados, apresentam simultaneamente uma mais rápida perda de firmeza quando comparados com os frutos dos outros pomares. Sendo que o menor teor de cálcio nos frutos leva a que a diminuição da firmeza da polpa ocorra mais rapidamente. No entanto à colheita não se observaram diferenças significativas da firmeza da polpa dos frutos. Esta informação parece indicar que outros factores, além do nível de cálcio dos frutos, poderão estar implicados na firmeza revelada à colheita. Por outro lado os frutos com epiderme revelaram diferenças de firmeza nos testes efectuados à colheita. O efeito da epiderme na firmeza dos frutos à colheita parece indicar que outros factores tais como o estado de hidratação dos frutos poderão contribuir para o aumento desta característica dos frutos. Apesar do teor de cálcio dos frutos melhorar o seu comportamento durante a conservação, a sua influência na emissão de etileno não foi evidente. O aumento do teor de cálcio nos frutos pode conseguir-se através de uma selecção adequada do porta-enxerto. Os porta-enxertos estudados induziram quantidades diferentes de cálcio nos frutos, aparentemente contribuindo o vigor do porta-enxerto para um efeito de diluição do cálcio na árvore. O estudo da influência do solo no teor do cálcio dos frutos revelou que os frutos com menor capacidade de conservação provinham de solos com maiores teores de cálcio, e que na sua constituição apresentavam uma menor concentração de cálcio na polpa. Apresenta-se ainda a hipótese de que o excesso de potássio presente nestes solos possa ter contribuído para um menor teor de cálcio nos frutos. De facto os frutos com uma razão Ca/K superior apresentaram também uma firmeza superior./ ABSTRACT - `Raínha Claudia Verde' is an old variety of Prunus domestica which is well adapted to a restrict zone of Alto Alentejo in the south region of Portugal. This variety is much appreciated either as a fresh fruit or as a sweet candy. The candying process is a widespread technique in this region with much empirical knowledge. There are practical evidences which indicate that fruits origin may influence the boiling process. Some fruits produced in specific areas in this region had an inadequate behaviour during boiling, becoming to soft and improper to use in canding. More recently it has been also observed that these specific areas produced fruits with a poor postharvest behaviour. During storage these fruits loose texture very quickly and became improper to commercialize. Many pre and postharvest factors may contribute to differences in fruit quality. calcium is one of most important nutrients which have a major effect on cell wall structure and membrane integrity. Studies on the role of calcium in fruits indicate its involvement in delaying changes associated with softening. Two orchards were selected because of their history of producing fruits with different characteristics either as a fresh or as a processed fruit, and because induced different calcium levels in the leaves. The main focus of this research work was to study the influence of the production region in fruit postharvest behaviour, specially the influence of calcium in fruit texture. The aims were: (1) to compare the rootstock and the soil influence on calcium fruit content, (2) to select a method- to measure the production of ethylene in fruits of 'Raínha Claudia Verde' (3) to evaluate the effects of different calcium fruit content in the postharvest behaviour of fruits (4) to evaluate the cell wall calcium content and its influence in fruit firmness, (5) and to select the best cold storage temperatures to this variety. It was found that 'Raínha Claudia Verde' is a climacteric variety and the studies on fruit firmness revealed a significant loss of fruit texture during ripening on or off the tree. During storage, fruits had a different behaviour depending on fruits origin. Usually fruits, which traditionally do not resist to boiling process, also exhibited an early softening, when compared to other fruits produced in adequate regions. The excessive fruit softening after harvest occurred in fruits with lower calcium content. However, at harvest, fruits from both orchards exhibited a similar firmness which may indicate that other factors besides calcium should be implicated in fruit firmness at harvest. In spite of a better postharvest behaviour of fruits with higher calcium content, it was not evident the calcium influence in the climacteric rise. The increase of calcium fruit content can be achieved with a proper rootstock selection. The rootstocks investigated in this study, induced different calcium fruit content, apparently vigorous rootstocks contributed to the dilution of calcium fruit level. The soil with higher calcium content induced a lower calcium fruit content, which may be due to the excess of potassium in this soil; in fact fruits with higher Ca/K ratio reached higher firmness values. It is also proposed a method to evaluate the calcium content in the fruit independently of fruit mass. The calcium fruit content is usually expressed as a percentage of dry mass, however during the course of fruit development there are a huge increment of fruit weight because of water and sugar mobilization into the fruit. Most of the total calcium in the plants is associated with the cell wall which means that calcium fruit content expressed as a percentage of cell wall fraction is a much more reliable method. Orchards with an excess of potassium in the soil produced fruits with a significant lower calcium fruit content. However it was not possible to prove the gradually firmness decrease during the harvest period as a consequence of calcium fruit loss. In fact, it was not evident a gradual decrease of calcium fruit content during the harvest dates thus it was impossible to find at harvest, a good correlation between fruit firmness and calcium fruit content. The analysis of cell wall polysaccharides evaluated during ripening in the tree showed a slight increase of more branched polysaccharides as ripening went. The small changes in pectic polysaccharides during the harvest season are in accordance with the small decrease in tissue firmness during this period. In this variety the usual storage period is about of 3-4weeks with a temperature of 1-2°C and 90% of relative humidity. However upon rewarming fruits held at 7°C, during 14 days, produced more ethylene at 20°C and exhibited also a higher firmness than fruits held at PC. The reduction of ethylene production and fruit firmness upon rewarming, after fruits being held at lower temperatures, may suggest some chilling injury in this variety.

Loss of Aggressiveness of Phytophthora cinnamomi (Beta-Cinnamomin Silenced Strain) in the Infection of Castanea sativa

Several forest species are severely affected by Phytophthora cinnamomi. The contribution of this oomycete to forest decline and dieback has been broadly reported. In particular, it is consensual that it is the causal agent of ink disease in Castanea sativa. It has been associated with the severe decline of Quercus species, namely the Q. suber and Q. ilex dieback in Portugal and Spain, and has been responsible for the infection of numerous native species and crops. This pathogen persists in the soil or on plant material in the form of chlamydospores allowing the infection of living root tissues when environmental conditions are favorable. © Microscopy Society of America 2012.

Rate adaptation for wireless video streaming based on error statistics

This paper presents a new rate-control algorithm for live video streaming over wireless IP networks, which is based on selective frame discarding. In the proposed mechanism excess 'P' frames are dropped from the output queue at the sender using a congestion estimate based on packet loss statistics obtained from RTCP feedback and from the Data Link (DL) layer. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated through computer simulation. This paper also presents a characterisation of packet losses owing to transmission errors and congestion, which can help in choosing appropriate strategies to maximise the video quality experienced by the end user. Copyright © 2007 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Loss of Par3 leads to aberrant divisions and faster mitotic progression in differentiating primary murine keratinocytes

Dissertação de Mestrado, Oncobiologia: Mecanismos Moleculares do Cancro, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2015

AB1258­HPR pilot study: does a mediterranean diet­based weight loss programme improve health outcomes in overweight older women with knee osteoarthritis?

Osteoarthritis (OA) is one of the leading causes of pain and disability among older adults, particularly women. Pain and mobility disability are major consequences of knee OA which and can interfere with the functional autonomy of elderly and thus, making it difficult to perform activities of daily living. Evidence suggests that obesity is strongly linked to knee OA and that non­pharmacological therapy should be based on physical activity and weight loss in case of overweight and obesity. A positive relationship between adherence to the Mediterranean diet and health outcomes has been widely discussed in scientific literature, including its potential benefits in weight loss.

Best Practice for Providing Social Care and Support to People Living with Concurrent Sight Loss and Dementia: Professional Perspectives

Purpose-Approximately 100,000 people in the UK aged 75 and over have concurrent dementia and sight loss, but current understanding of their experiences, needs and preferences is limited. The purpose of this paper is to report on a research project that explored the provision of social care and support for older people with both conditions. Design/methodology/approach-The project was a collaboration between the universities of York, Worcester, Bournemouth and Cambridge, supported by the Thomas Pocklington Trust and the Housing and Dementia Research Consortium. Data for this paper were drawn from focus groups held in 2013 involving 47 professionals across the dementia, sight loss and housing sectors. Findings-Thematic analysis identified five main barriers to providing high-quality, cost-effective social care and support: time constraints; financial limitations; insufficient professional knowledge; a lack of joint working; and inconsistency of services. The requirements of dementia and sight loss often conflict, which can limit the usefulness of equipment, aids and adaptations. Support and information needs to address individual needs and preferences. Research limitations/implications-Unless professionals consider dementia and sight loss together, they are unlikely to think about the impact of both conditions and the potential of their own services to provide effective support for individuals and their informal carers. Failing to consider both conditions together can also limit the availability and accessibility of social care and support services. This paper is based on input from a small sample of self-selecting professionals across three geographical regions of England. More research is needed in this area. Practical implications-There are growing numbers of people living with concurrent dementia and sight loss, many of whom wish to remain living in their own homes. There is limited awareness of the experiences and needs of this group and limited provision of appropriate services aids/adaptations. A range of measures should be implemented in order to support independence and well-being for people living with both conditions and their family carers. These include increased awareness, improved assessment, more training and greater joint working. Social implications-People living with dementia or sight loss are at high risk of social isolation, increasingly so for those with both conditions. Services that take an inclusive approach to both conditions can provide crucial opportunities for social interaction. Extra care housing has the potential to provide a supportive, community-based environment that can help residents to maintain social contact. Originality/value-This paper adds much-needed evidence to the limited existing literature, and reflects the views of diverse professionals across housing, health and social care

Evolution of the rbcS gene family in Solanaceae: concerted evolution and gain and loss of introns, with a description of new statistical guidelines for determining the number of unique gene copies.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2014