As provas de decisão na seleção dos quadros permanentes nos ramos das Forças Armadas

O presente trabalho, subordinado ao tema “As provas de decisão na seleção dos quadros permanentes nos Ramos das Forças Armadas”, enquadra-se no Mestrado Integrado em Ciências Militares, e procura estudar a importância das provas de decisão no processo de seleção dos quadros permanentes das Forças Armadas Portuguesas. Do concurso de admissão aos diferentes Estabelecimentos de Ensino Superior Público Universitário Militar, consta uma prova de Aptidão Física que inclui provas físicas e provas de decisão. O tema emergiu devido ao facto de as Forças Armadas Portuguesas se debaterem com o problema do insucesso na realização em algumas provas físicas por parte dos candidatos. Apesar dos responsáveis pela seleção terem consciência deste insucesso, reconhecem que muitos candidatos que não conseguem ultrapassar algumas das provas físicas têm capacidades para as superar. Nesta pesquisa qualitativa, através da realização de entrevistas semiestruturadas a alguns militares com funções e/ou experiências diferentes, procurámos comparar diferentes perspetivas sobre Prova de Aptidão Física e enquadrar a importância das provas no processo de ingresso nos quadros permanentes, numa dinâmica positiva que visou produzir informação pertinente sobre esta temática. Foi utilizado o método indutivo, assente numa abordagem de pesquisa qualitativa, cuja natureza é a investigação aplicada. Concluiu-se que as Provas de Decisão podem ser iguais para as três academias, e Provas de Aptidão Física dos três ramos podem ser realizadas conjuntamente, integrando as Prova de Decisão, de modo a otimizar a utilização dos recursos das Forças Armadas Portuguesas; a análise permitiu caraterizar Prova de Decisão e propor alterações ao processo de seleção dos candidatos.

Inteligencia de negocios aplicando la metodología RFM a las cuentas de los Socios de la COAC Jardín Azuayo

El presente proyecto:Inteligencia de negocios, aplicando la metodología RFM a las cuentas de los socios de la COAC Jardín Azuayo, se desarrolla sobre la necesidad de la institución de contar con herramientas eficientes y eficaces para la toma de decisiones y conocimiento del socio. Primero, se determina la importancia de construir una herramienta de Inteligencia de Negocios dentro de Jardín Azuayo que permita obtener información clara y concisa en tiempo real para la toma de decisiones. Segundo, se continúa con el desarrollo de metodologías para la gestión del valor del socio a través del conocimiento de sus necesidades analizando la información histórica de su última transacción realizada, la frecuencia con la que acude para acceder a los servicios que ofrece la Cooperativa y el monto promedio por transacción. Finalmente, al combinar la herramienta de Inteligencia de Negocios para la obtención de información y la aplicación de metodologías para el conocimiento del socio, se ha podido plantear dos estrategias básicas para la afianzar la fidelización del socio con la Cooperativa.

DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF THE ANTERIOR CRUCIATE LIGAMENT INJURY-RISK-ESTIMATION QUIZ (ACL-IQ)

Over 2 million Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL) injuries occur annually worldwide resulting in considerable economic and health burdens (e.g., suffering, surgery, loss of function, risk for re-injury, and osteoarthritis). Current screening methods are effective but they generally rely on expensive and time-consuming biomechanical movement analysis, and thus are impractical solutions. In this dissertation, I report on a series of studies that begins to investigate one potentially efficient alternative to biomechanical screening, namely skilled observational risk assessment (e.g., having experts estimate risk based on observations of athletes movements). Specifically, in Study 1 I discovered that ACL injury risk can be accurately and reliably estimated with nearly instantaneous visual inspection when observed by skilled and knowledgeable professionals. Modern psychometric optimization techniques were then used to develop a robust and efficient 5-item test of ACL injury risk prediction skill—i.e., the ACL Injury-Risk-Estimation Quiz or ACL-IQ. Study 2 cross-validated the results from Study 1 in a larger representative sample of both skilled (Exercise Science/Sports Medicine) and un-skilled (General Population) groups. In accord with research on human expertise, quantitative structural and process modeling of risk estimation indicated that superior performance was largely mediated by specific strategies and skills (e.g., ignoring irrelevant information), independent of domain general cognitive abilities (e.g., metal rotation, general decision skill). These cognitive models suggest that ACL-IQ is a trainable skill, providing a foundation for future research and applications in training, decision support, and ultimately clinical screening investigations. Overall, I present the first evidence that observational ACL injury risk prediction is possible including a robust technology for fast, accurate and reliable measurement—i.e., the ACL-IQ. Discussion focuses on applications and outreach including a web platform that was developed to house the test, provide a repository for further data collection, and increase public and professional awareness and outreach (www.ACL-IQ.org). Future directions and general applications of the skilled movement analysis approach are also discussed.

Introducing a pilot data collection model for real-time evaluation of data redundancy

In order to reduce serious health incidents, individuals with high risks need to be identified as early as possible so that effective intervention and preventive care can be provided. This requires regular and efficient assessments of risk within communities that are the first point of contacts for individuals. Clinical Decision Support Systems CDSSs have been developed to help with the task of risk assessment, however such systems and their underpinning classification models are tailored towards those with clinical expertise. Communities where regular risk assessments are required lack such expertise. This paper presents the continuation of GRiST research team efforts to disseminate clinical expertise to communities. Based on our earlier published findings, this paper introduces the framework and skeleton for a data collection and risk classification model that evaluates data redundancy in real-time, detects the risk-informative data and guides the risk assessors towards collecting those data. By doing so, it enables non-experts within the communities to conduct reliable Mental Health risk triage.

Detection and Grading of Prostate Cancer in Temporal Enhanced Ultrasound using Convolutional Neural Networks

Prostate cancer is the most common non-dermatological cancer amongst men in the developed world. The current definitive diagnosis is core needle biopsy guided by transrectal ultrasound. However, this method suffers from low sensitivity and specificity in detecting cancer. Recently, a new ultrasound based tissue typing approach has been proposed, known as temporal enhanced ultrasound (TeUS). In this approach, a set of temporal ultrasound frames is collected from a stationary tissue location without any intentional mechanical excitation. The main aim of this thesis is to implement a deep learning-based solution for prostate cancer detection and grading using TeUS data. In the proposed solution, convolutional neural networks are trained to extract high-level features from time domain TeUS data in temporally and spatially adjacent frames in nine in vivo prostatectomy cases. This approach avoids information loss due to feature extraction and also improves cancer detection rate. The output likelihoods of two TeUS arrangements are then combined to form our novel decision support system. This deep learning-based approach results in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.80 and 0.73 for prostate cancer detection and grading, respectively, in leave-one-patient-out cross-validation. Recently, multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (mp-MRI) has been utilized to improve detection rate of aggressive prostate cancer. In this thesis, for the first time, we present the fusion of mp-MRI and TeUS for characterization of prostate cancer to compensates the deficiencies of each image modalities and improve cancer detection rate. The results obtained using TeUS are fused with those attained using consolidated mp-MRI maps from multiple MR modalities and cancer delineations on those by multiple clinicians. The proposed fusion approach yields the AUC of 0.86 in prostate cancer detection. The outcomes of this thesis emphasize the viable potential of TeUS as a tissue typing method. Employing this ultrasound-based intervention, which is non-invasive and inexpensive, can be a valuable and practical addition to enhance the current prostate cancer detection.

ARIA 2016: Care pathways implementing emerging technologies for predictive medicine in rhinitis and asthma across the life cycle

The Allergic Rhinitis and its Impact on Asthma (ARIA) initiative commenced during a World Health Organization workshop in 1999. The initial goals were (1) to propose a new allergic rhinitis classification, (2) to promote the concept of multi-morbidity in asthma and rhinitis and (3) to develop guidelines with all stakeholders that could be used globally for all countries and populations. ARIA—disseminated and implemented in over 70 countries globally—is now focusing on the implementation of emerging technologies for individualized and predictive medicine. MASK [MACVIA (Contre les Maladies Chroniques pour un Vieillissement Actif)-ARIA Sentinel NetworK] uses mobile technology to develop care pathways for the management of rhinitis and asthma by a multi-disciplinary group and by patients themselves. An app (Android and iOS) is available in 20 countries and 15 languages. It uses a visual analogue scale to assess symptom control and work productivity as well as a clinical decision support system. It is associated with an inter-operable tablet for physicians and other health care professionals. The scaling up strategy uses the recommendations of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing. The aim of the novel ARIA approach is to provide an active and healthy life to rhinitis sufferers, whatever their age, sex or socio-economic status, in order to reduce health and social inequalities incurred by the disease.

Examining Levels of Automation in the Wood Processing Industry - A case study

Companies operating in the wood processing industry need to increase their productivity by implementing automation technologies in their production systems. An increasing global competition and rising raw material prizes challenge their competitiveness. Yet, too extensive automation brings risks such as a deterioration in situation awareness and operator deskilling. The concept of Levels of Automation is generally seen as means to achieve a balanced task allocation between the operators’ skills and competences and the need for automation technology relieving the humans from repetitive or hazardous work activities. The aim of this thesis was to examine to what extent existing methods for assessing Levels of Automation in production processes are applicable in the wood processing industry when focusing on an improved competitiveness of production systems. This was done by answering the following research questions (RQ): RQ1: What method is most appropriate to be applied with measuring Levels of Automation in the wood processing industry? RQ2: How can the measurement of Levels of Automation contribute to an improved competitiveness of the wood processing industry’s production processes? Literature reviews were used to identify the main characteristics of the wood processing industry affecting its automation potential and appropriate assessment methods for Levels of Automation in order to answer RQ1. When selecting the most suitable method, factors like the relevance to the target industry, application complexity or operational level the method is penetrating were important. The DYNAMO++ method, which covers both a rather quantitative technical-physical and a more qualitative social-cognitive dimension, was seen as most appropriate when taking into account these factors. To answer RQ 2, a case study was undertaken at a major Swedish manufacturer of interior wood products to point out paths how the measurement of Levels of Automation contributes to an improved competitiveness of the wood processing industry. The focus was on the task level on shop floor and concrete improvement suggestions were elaborated after applying the measurement method for Levels of Automation. Main aspects considered for generalization were enhancements regarding ergonomics in process design and cognitive support tools for shop-floor personnel through task standardization. Furthermore, difficulties regarding the automation of grading and sorting processes due to the heterogeneous material properties of wood argue for a suitable arrangement of human intervention options in terms of work task allocation.  The application of a modified version of DYNAMO++ reveals its pros and cons during a case study which covers a high operator involvement in the improvement process and the distinct predisposition of DYNAMO++ to be applied in an assembly system.

Knowledge-based management systems for the police force

Knowledge-Based Management Systems enable new ways to process and analyse knowledge to gain better insights to solve a problem and aid in decision making. In the police force such systems provide a solution for enhancing operations and improving client administration in terms of knowledge management. The main objectives of every police officer is to ensure the security of life and property, promote lawfulness, and avert and distinguish wrongdoing. The administration of knowledge and information is an essential part of policing, and the police ought to be proactive in directing both explicit and implicit knowledge, whilst adding to their abilities in knowledge sharing. In this paper the potential for a knowledge based system for the Mauritius police was analysed, and recommendations were also made, based on requirements captured from interviews with several long standing officers, and surveying of previous works in the area.

Towards an assessment of on-farm niches for improved forages in Sud-Kivu, DR Congo

Inadequate quantity and quality of livestock feed is a persistent constraint to productivity for mixed crop-livestock farming in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. To assess on-farm niches of improved forages, demonstration trials and participatory on-farm research were conducted in four different sites. Forage legumes included Canavalia brasiliensis (CIAT 17009), Stylosanthes guianensis (CIAT 11995) and Desmodium uncinatum (cv. Silverleaf), while grasses were Guatemala grass (Tripsacum andersonii), Napier grass (Pennisetum purpureum) French Cameroon, and a local Napier line. Within the first six months, forage legumes adapted differently to the four sites with little differences among varieties, while forage grasses displayed higher variability in biomass production among varieties than among sites. Farmers’ ranking largely corresponded to herbage yield from the first cut, preferring Canavalia, Silverleaf desmodium and Napier French Cameroon. Choice of forages and integration into farming systems depended on land availability, soil erosion prevalence and livestock husbandry system. In erosion prone sites, 55–60% of farmers planted grasses on field edges and 16–30% as hedgerows for erosion control. 43% of farmers grew forages as intercrop with food crops such as maize and cassava, pointing to land scarcity. Only in the site with lower land pressure, 71% of farmers grew legumes as pure stand. When land tenure was not secured and livestock freely roaming, 75% of farmers preferred to grow annual forage legumes instead of perennial grasses. Future research should develop robust decision support for spatial and temporal integration of forage technologies into diverse smallholder cropping systems and agro-ecologies.

Production Diseases in European Organic Dairy Farms – Current Status and Identification of Drivers for Improvement by Means of a Systemic Approach

The aims of this thesis were to determine the animal health status in organic dairy farms in Europe and to identify drivers for improving the current situation by means of a systemic approach. Prevalences of production diseases were determined in 192 herds in Germany, France, Spain, and Sweden (Paper I), and stakeholder consultations were performed to investigate potential drivers to improve animal health on the sector level (ibid.). Interactions between farm variables were assessed through impact analysis and evaluated to identify general system behaviour and classify components according to their outgoing and incoming impacts (Paper II-III). The mean values and variances of prevalences indicate that the common rules of organic dairy farming in Europe do not result in consistently low levels of production diseases. Stakeholders deemed it necessary to improve the current status and were generally in favour of establishing thresholds for the prevalence of production diseases in organic dairy herds as well as taking actions to improve farms below that threshold. In order to close the gap between the organic principle of health and the organic farming practice, there is the need to formulate a common objective of good animal health and to install instruments to ensure and prove that the aim is followed by all dairy farmers in Europe who sell their products under the organic label. Regular monitoring and evaluation of herd health performance based on reference values are considered preconditions for identifying farms not reaching the target and thus in need of improvement. Graph-based impact analysis was shown to be a suitable method for modeling and evaluating the manifold interactions between farm factors and for identifying the most influential components on the farm level taking into account direct and indirect impacts as well as impact strengths. Variables likely to affect the system as a whole, and the prevalence of production diseases in particular, varied largely between farms despite some general tendencies. This finding reflects the diversity of farm systems and underlines the importance of applying systemic approaches in health management. Reducing the complexity of farm systems and indicating farm-specific drivers, i.e. areas in a farm, where changes will have a large impact, the presented approach has the potential to complement and enrich current advisory practice and to support farmers’ decision-making in terms of animal health.

Aplicaciones de los modelos de predicción bio-inspirados en la administración

Las organizaciones y sus entornos son sistemas complejos. Tales sistemas son difíciles de comprender y predecir. Pese a ello, la predicción es una tarea fundamental para la gestión empresarial y para la toma de decisiones que implica siempre un riesgo. Los métodos clásicos de predicción (entre los cuales están: la regresión lineal, la Autoregresive Moving Average y el exponential smoothing) establecen supuestos como la linealidad, la estabilidad para ser matemática y computacionalmente tratables. Por diferentes medios, sin embargo, se han demostrado las limitaciones de tales métodos. Pues bien, en las últimas décadas nuevos métodos de predicción han surgido con el fin de abarcar la complejidad de los sistemas organizacionales y sus entornos, antes que evitarla. Entre ellos, los más promisorios son los métodos de predicción bio-inspirados (ej. redes neuronales, algoritmos genéticos /evolutivos y sistemas inmunes artificiales). Este artículo pretende establecer un estado situacional de las aplicaciones actuales y potenciales de los métodos bio-inspirados de predicción en la administración.

Evaluación del desempeño pronóstico de dos puntajes de predicción de mortalidad a siete días en pacientes adultos oncológicos críticamente enfermos admitidos a una unidad de cuidados intensivos en Bogotá

Introducción Los sistemas de puntuación para predicción se han desarrollado para medir la severidad de la enfermedad y el pronóstico de los pacientes en la unidad de cuidados intensivos. Estas medidas son útiles para la toma de decisiones clínicas, la estandarización de la investigación, y la comparación de la calidad de la atención al paciente crítico. Materiales y métodos Estudio de tipo observacional analítico de cohorte en el que reviso las historias clínicas de 283 pacientes oncológicos admitidos a la unidad de cuidados intensivos (UCI) durante enero de 2014 a enero de 2016 y a quienes se les estimo la probabilidad de mortalidad con los puntajes pronósticos APACHE IV y MPM II, se realizó regresión logística con las variables predictoras con las que se derivaron cada uno de los modelos es sus estudios originales y se determinó la calibración, la discriminación y se calcularon los criterios de información Akaike AIC y Bayesiano BIC. Resultados En la evaluación de desempeño de los puntajes pronósticos APACHE IV mostro mayor capacidad de predicción (AUC = 0,95) en comparación con MPM II (AUC = 0,78), los dos modelos mostraron calibración adecuada con estadístico de Hosmer y Lemeshow para APACHE IV (p = 0,39) y para MPM II (p = 0,99). El ∆ BIC es de 2,9 que muestra evidencia positiva en contra de APACHE IV. Se reporta el estadístico AIC siendo menor para APACHE IV lo que indica que es el modelo con mejor ajuste a los datos. Conclusiones APACHE IV tiene un buen desempeño en la predicción de mortalidad de pacientes críticamente enfermos, incluyendo pacientes oncológicos. Por lo tanto se trata de una herramienta útil para el clínico en su labor diaria, al permitirle distinguir los pacientes con alta probabilidad de mortalidad.

Quality of Judgment Assessment

The intersection of Artificial Intelligence and The Law stands for a multifaceted matter, and its effects set the advances on culture, organization, as well as the social matters, when the emergent information technologies are taken into consideration. From this point of view, the weight of formal and informal Conflict Resolution settings should be highlighted, and the use of defective data, information or knowledge must be emphasized. Indeed, it is hard to do it with traditional problem solving methodologies. Therefore, in this work the focus is on the development of decision support systems, in terms of its knowledge representation and reasoning procedures, under a formal framework based on Logic Programming, complemented with an approach to computing centered on Artificial Neural Networks. It is intended to evaluate the Quality-of-Judgments and the respective Degree-of-Confidence that one has on such happenings.

Screening a Case Base for Stroke Disease Detection

Stroke stands for one of the most frequent causes of death, without distinguishing age or genders. Despite representing an expressive mortality fig-ure, the disease also causes long-term disabilities with a huge recovery time, which goes in parallel with costs. However, stroke and health diseases may also be prevented considering illness evidence. Therefore, the present work will start with the development of a decision support system to assess stroke risk, centered on a formal framework based on Logic Programming for knowledge rep-resentation and reasoning, complemented with a Case Based Reasoning (CBR) approach to computing. Indeed, and in order to target practically the CBR cycle, a normalization and an optimization phases were introduced, and clustering methods were used, then reducing the search space and enhancing the cases re-trieval one. On the other hand, and aiming at an improvement of the CBR theo-retical basis, the predicates` attributes were normalized to the interval 0…1, and the extensions of the predicates that match the universe of discourse were re-written, and set not only in terms of an evaluation of its Quality-of-Information (QoI), but also in terms of an assessment of a Degree-of-Confidence (DoC), a measure of one`s confidence that they fit into a given interval, taking into account their domains, i.e., each predicate attribute will be given in terms of a pair (QoI, DoC), a simple and elegant way to represent data or knowledge of the type incomplete, self-contradictory, or even unknown.

Prediction of Length of Hospital Stay in Preterm Infants - A Case-Based Reasoning View

The length of stay of preterm infants in a neonatology service has become an issue of a growing concern, namely considering, on the one hand, the mothers and infants health conditions and, on the other hand, the scarce healthcare facilities own resources. Thus, a pro-active strategy for problem solving has to be put in place, either to improve the quality-of-service provided or to reduce the inherent financial costs. Therefore, this work will focus on the development of a diagnosis decision support system in terms of a formal agenda built on a Logic Programming approach to knowledge representation and reasoning, complemented with a case-based problem solving methodology to computing, that caters for the handling of incomplete, unknown, or even contradictory in-formation. The proposed model has been quite accurate in predicting the length of stay (overall accuracy of 84.9%) and by reducing the computational time with values around 21.3%.