Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-Making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.

A decision support system for cost determination in grain storage facility operations

Many research works have being carried out on analyzing grain storage facility costs; however a few of them had taken into account the analysis of factors associated to all pre-processing and storage steps. The objective of this work was to develop a decision support system for determining the grain storage facility costs and utilization fees in grain storage facilities. The data of a CONAB storage facility located in Ponta Grossa - PR, Brazil, was used as input of the system developed to analyze its specific characteristics, such as amount of product received and stored throughout the year, hourly capacity of drying, cleaning, and receiving, and dispatch. By applying the decision support system, it was observed that the reception and expedition costs were exponentially reduced as the turnover rate of the storage increased. The cleaning and drying costs increased linearly with grain initial moisture. The storage cost increased exponentially as the occupancy rate of the storage facility decreased.

Relative reduction in annual soil loss in micro watersheds due to the relief and forest cover

With the intense debate, in Brazil, between landowners and public agencies about the amount of area with forest cover needed in different regions, there is an increase of the need for provision of technical data used as a basis for decision making. One of the criteria to evaluate the effect of forest cover in protecting water resources is the soil loss, which leads to several consequences on the environment, including the silting of the rivers. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the reduction in the soil loss in micro watersheds with different reliefs, size and location of forest cover, in the Corumbataí River watershed, in the state of São Paulo, using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) in a GIS environment. For this study, 18 watersheds in three degrees of slope were selected, and 20 scenarios for land-use were established, by analyzing the influence of the PPA size, and the size and the location of the Legal Reserve. The results showed that: a) the effect of forest cover in reducing annual soil loss varies depending on the average slope of the watershed; b) the PPA width must be determined taking into account the slope of the watershed; c) the Legal Reserve must be located along the PPA. These provide better results in reducing annual soil loss.

Economic viability of retrofiting emitters in center pivot irrigation systems

Although several studies have been conducted to evaluate the uniformity of water application under center pivot irrigation systems, there are few studies concerning the economic perspective of such coefficient. The aim of this study is to present a methodology to accomplish an economic analysis as support for the decision-making to retrofit emitters in center pivot irrigation systems, and to attribute an economic meaning to the uniformity coefficient of water application taking into account the response function productivity to the amount of water applied and the sale price of the crops. In the hypothetic calculation example considering the variation of revenue of potato crop under center pivot irrigation system, it was verified that the area with uniformity coefficient of water application of 90% brought an income increase of BR$ 1,992.00, considering an area about 1,0 ha. Thus, it can be concluded that the methodology presented has met the objectives proposed in the study and made it possible to attribute an economical meaning to the coefficient of water uniformity application.

Improving Transportation and Warehousing Efficiency with Simulation-Based Decision Support Systems

Transportation and warehousing are large and growing sectors in the society, and their efficiency is of high importance. Transportation also has a large share of global carbondioxide emissions, which are one the leading causes of anthropogenic climate warming. Various countries have agreed to decrease their carbon emissions according to the Kyoto protocol. Transportation is the only sector where emissions have steadily increased since the 1990s, which highlights the importance of transportation efficiency. The efficiency of transportation and warehousing can be improved with the help of simulations, but models alone are not sufficient. This research concentrates on the use of simulations in decision support systems. Three main simulation approaches are used in logistics: discrete-event simulation, systems dynamics, and agent-based modeling. However, individual simulation approaches have weaknesses of their own. Hybridization (combining two or more approaches) can improve the quality of the models, as it allows using a different method to overcome the weakness of one method. It is important to choose the correct approach (or a combination of approaches) when modeling transportation and warehousing issues. If an inappropriate method is chosen (this can occur if the modeler is proficient in only one approach or the model specification is not conducted thoroughly), the simulation model will have an inaccurate structure, which in turn will lead to misleading results. This issue can further escalate, as the decision-maker may assume that the presented simulation model gives the most useful results available, even though the whole model can be based on a poorly chosen structure. In this research it is argued that simulation- based decision support systems need to take various issues into account to make a functioning decision support system. The actual simulation model can be constructed using any (or multiple) approach, it can be combined with different optimization modules, and there needs to be a proper interface between the model and the user. These issues are presented in a framework, which simulation modelers can use when creating decision support systems. In order for decision-makers to fully benefit from the simulations, the user interface needs to clearly separate the model and the user, but at the same time, the user needs to be able to run the appropriate runs in order to analyze the problems correctly. This study recommends that simulation modelers should start to transfer their tacit knowledge to explicit knowledge. This would greatly benefit the whole simulation community and improve the quality of simulation-based decision support systems as well. More studies should also be conducted by using hybrid models and integrating simulations with Graphical Information Systems.

Improving strategic decision-making with simulation based decision support systems

Combating climate change is one of the key tasks of humanity in the 21st century. One of the leading causes is carbon dioxide emissions due to usage of fossil fuels. Renewable energy sources should be used instead of relying on oil, gas, and coal. In Finland a significant amount of energy is produced using wood. The usage of wood chips is expected to increase in the future significantly, over 60 %. The aim of this research is to improve understanding over the costs of wood chip supply chains. This is conducted by utilizing simulation as the main research method. The simulation model utilizes both agent-based modelling and discrete event simulation to imitate the wood chip supply chain. This thesis concentrates on the usage of simulation based decision support systems in strategic decision-making. The simulation model is part of a decision support system, which connects the simulation model to databases but also provides a graphical user interface for the decisionmaker. The main analysis conducted with the decision support system concentrates on comparing a traditional supply chain to a supply chain utilizing specialized containers. According to the analysis, the container supply chain is able to have smaller costs than the traditional supply chain. Also, a container supply chain can be more easily scaled up due to faster emptying operations. Initially the container operations would only supply part of the fuel needs of a power plant and it would complement the current supply chain. The model can be expanded to include intermodal supply chains as due to increased demand in the future there is not enough wood chips located close to current and future power plants.

TURKU TAKING STEPS TOWARDS FUTURE - technology supports physical activity

Physical activity (PA) is an important field of healthcare research internationally and within Finland. As technology devices and services penetrate deeper levels within society, the need for studying the usefulness for PA turns vital. We started this research work by reviewing literature consisting of two hundred research journals, all of which have found technology to significantly improve an individual’s ability to get motivation and achieve officially recommended levels of physical activity, like the 10000 steps a day, being tracked with the help of pedometers. Physical activity recommendations require sustained encouragement, consistent performance in order to achieve the long term benefits. We surveyed within the city of Turku, how the motivation levels and thirty three other criterions encompassing technology awareness, adoption and usage attitudes are impacted. Our aim was to know the factors responsible for achieving consistent growth in activity levels within the individuals and focus groups, as well as to determine the causes of failures and for collecting user experience feedback. The survey results were quite interesting and contain impeccable information for this field. While the focus groups confirmed the theory established by past studies within our literature review, it also establishes our research propositions that ict tools and services have provided and can further add higher benefits and value to individuals in tracking and maintain their activity levels consistently for longer time durations. This thesis includes two new models which dictate technology and physical activity adoption patterns based on four easy to evaluate criterions, thereby helping the healthcare providers to recommend improvements and address issues with an easy rule based approach. This research work provides vital clues on technology based healthcare objectives and achievement of standard PA recommendations by people within Turku and nearby regions.

Chelyabinsk CHP-3 “locked power” problem solving

All over the world power systems become bigger and bigger every day. New equipment is installed, new feeders are constructed, new power units are installed. Some old elements of the network, however, are not changed in time. As a result, “bottlenecks” for capacity transmission can occur. By locked power problem the situation when a power plant has installed capacity exceeding the power it can actually deliver is usually meant. Regime, scheme or even technical restrictions-related issues usually cause this kind of problem. It is really important, since from the regime point of view it is typical decision to have a mobile capacity reserve, in case of malfunctions. And, what can be even more significant, power plant owner (JSC Fortum in our case) losses his money because of selling less electrical energy. The goal of master`s thesis is to analyze the current state of Chelyabinsk power system and the CHP-3 (Combined Heat and Power plant) in particular in relation with it`s ability to deliver the whole capacity of the CHP in it`s existing state and also taking into consideration the prospect of power unit 3 installation by the fourth quarter of 2010. The thesis contains some general information about the UPS of Russia, CPS of Ural, power system of Chelyabinsk and the Chelyabinsk region itself. Then the CHP-3 is described from technical point of view with it`s equipment observation. Regimes for the nowadays power system and for the system after the power unit 3 installation are reviewed. The problems occurring are described and, finally, a solution is offered.

IT Investment Portfolio Management Over Joint Ventures: Case Study in a Multinational Oil & Gas Company

With information technology (IT) playing an increasing important role in driving the business, the value of IT investment is often challenged because not all of those investment decisions are made in a reasonable way or aligned with business strategies. IT investment portfolio management (PfM) is an effective way to prioritize and select the right IT projects to invest in, by taking all the project proposals into consideration as a whole, based on their business value, risks, costs, and interrelationships. There are different decision models to prioritise projects, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is one of the most commonly-used methods and is discussed in this master thesis. At the same time, there are IT projects on different levels for a multinational company, from global to local. For instance, many of them are probably proposed by joint ventures on local level. In the oil & gas industry, joint ventures are often formed especially in the area of the upstream (exploration & production). How to involve those projects into the IT investment PfM approach of the parent company is a challenge, because the parent company cannot make the decisions on its own. It needs to prioritize all projects in an adequate way, communicate with JVs and influence them. Also, different control levels on JVs need to be considered. This paper hence attempts to introduce a tailored approach of IT investment PfM for a multinational oil & gas company to address the issues around JVs.

Public and Private Sector Decision Makers Within the Rail Baltica Growth Corridor

Transport volumes have increased and will continue to increase in European Union. Even though the growth has not been equal between different transport modes. Most of the growth has been faced on road transport. European Union aims to balance the unbalanced market shares between the modes by gaining and supporting the competitiveness of railway and waterway transport. In EU railway transportation is seen as solution to increase safety in traffic and decrease the environmental impacts of transportation. The aim of this research is to figure out how it is possible to decrease the environmental impacts by the technology already in use. Main focus of this research is in intermodality and combining the road and railway transportation. This study aims also to figure out demands and expectations towards new Rail Baltica railway route connecting Tallinn and Berlin. The research is conducted by performing a literature review about decreasing environmental impacts and combining road and rail transport. Another viewpoint is taken from the possible effects of tourism to the passenger transport on rails. Knowledge gained by literature review is deepened by additional internet questionnaire study and expert interview study. In decreasing the environmental impacts of transportation electric trains are definitely the best option providing that the electricity is generated from renewable or carbon dioxide free sources. Decrease of environmental impacts has been reached also with acceptance of larger road transport vehicles. According to interviewed passenger transport experts, the whole route from Tallinn to Berlin may not be convenient to be used in passenger transport, just because the route is too long.. In EU freight is transported mainly with semi-trailer combinations, and that is why it could be logical if huckepack trains would be used on Rail Baltica. Huckepack train allows semi-trailers to be transported on rails with time efficient loading-unloading process. Overall, Rail Baltica project is experienced as a future-oriented one and new railway alignment is seen as great alternative option for transport modes using fossil fuels.

Effect of emotions on consumer decision-making in a high involvement product adoption context

This thesis was written in order participate in the emergent discussion on the role of emotions in consumer decision-making. The goal of the thesis was to find out which emotions affect consumer decision-making, how these emotions relate to traditional process models of consumer decision-making, and how emotions and other factors affect consumer decision-making. The thesis is placed into a context of high involvement product adoption. The empirical research was conducted according to a qualitative methodology, which combined video diaries and face-to-face or Skype interviews as data collection methods. The case product category was dancing poles, and four women participated in the study. The central results indicate that emotion and cognition walk hand in hand in consumer decision-making, that consumers experience a variety of emotions during a decision-making process, and that emotions have an important effect on consumer decision-making and consumer behavior.

Managerial decision-making style : India, Bangladesh, and Finland : cultural side of the game

Julkaisumaa Intia 356 IN IND

Immediate Decision-Making and Information Needs in Intensive Care Coordination

The aim of this study was to develop a theoretical model for information integration to support the deci¬sion making of intensive care charge nurses, and physicians in charge – that is, ICU shift leaders. The study focused on the ad hoc decision-making and immediate information needs of shift leaders during the management of an intensive care unit’s (ICU) daily activities. The term ‘ad hoc decision-making’ was defined as critical judgements that are needed for a specific purpose at a precise moment with the goal of ensuring instant and adequate patient care and a fluent flow of ICU activities. Data collection and research analysis methods were tested in the identification of ICU shift leaders’ ad hoc decision-making. Decision-making of ICU charge nurses (n = 12) and physicians in charge (n = 8) was observed using a think-aloud technique in two university-affiliated Finnish ICUs for adults. The ad hoc decisions of ICU shift leaders were identified using an application of protocol analysis. In the next phase, a structured online question¬naire was developed to evaluate the immediate information needs of ICU shift leaders. A national survey was conducted in all Finnish, university-affiliated hospital ICUs for adults (n = 17). The questionnaire was sent to all charge nurses (n = 515) and physicians in charge (n = 223). Altogether, 257 charge nurses (50%) and 96 physicians in charge (43%) responded to the survey. The survey was also tested internationally in 16 Greek ICUs. From Greece, 50 charge nurses out of 240 (21%) responded to the survey. A think-aloud technique and protocol analysis were found to be applicable for the identification of the ad hoc decision-making of ICU shift leaders. During one day shift leaders made over 200 ad hoc decisions. Ad hoc decisions were made horizontally, related to the whole intensive care process, and vertically, concerning single intensive care incidents. Most of the ICU shift leaders’ ad hoc decisions were related to human resources and know-how, patient information and vital signs, and special treatments. Commonly, this ad hoc decision-making involved several multiprofessional decisions that constituted a bundle of immediate decisions and various information needs. Some of these immediate information needs were shared between the charge nurses and the physicians in charge. The majority of which concerned patient admission, the organisation and management of work, and staff allocation. In general, the information needs of charge nurses were more varied than those of physicians. It was found that many ad hoc deci-sions made by the physicians in charge produced several information needs for ICU charge nurses. This meant that before the task at hand was completed, various kinds of information was sought by the charge nurses to support the decision-making process. Most of the immediate information needs of charge nurses were related to the organisation and management of work and human resources, whereas the information needs of the physicians in charge mainly concerned direct patient care. Thus, information needs differ between professionals even if the goal of decision-making is the same. The results of the international survey confirmed these study results for charge nurses. Both in Finland and in Greece the information needs of charge nurses focused on the organisation and management of work and human resources. Many of the most crucial information needs of Finnish and Greek ICU charge nurses were common. In conclusion, it was found that ICU shift leaders make hundreds of ad hoc decisions during the course of a day related to the allocation of resources and organisation of patient care. The ad hoc decision-making of ICU shift leaders is a complex multi-professional process, which requires a lot of immediate information. Real-time support for information related to patient admission, the organisation and man¬agement of work, and allocation of staff resources is especially needed. The preliminary information integration model can be applied when real-time enterprise resource planning systems are developed for intensive care daily management