Examining performance of aggregation algorithms for neural network-based electricity demand forecasting

The aim of this research is to examine the efficiency of different aggregation algorithms to the forecasts obtained from individual neural network (NN) models in an ensemble. In this study an ensemble of 100 NN models are constructed with a heterogeneous architecture. The outputs from NN models are combined by three different aggregation algorithms. These aggregation algorithms comprise of a simple average, trimmed mean, and a Bayesian model averaging. These methods are utilized with certain modifications and are employed on the forecasts obtained from all individual NN models. The output of the aggregation algorithms is analyzed and compared with the individual NN models used in NN ensemble and with a Naive approach. Thirty-minutes interval electricity demand data from Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and the New York Independent System Operator's web site (NYISO) are used in the empirical analysis. It is observed that the aggregation algorithm perform better than many of the individual NN models. In comparison with the Naive approach, the aggregation algorithms exhibit somewhat better forecasting performance.

Convert meets KIELER: integrating advanced layout algorithms into by-example visualisations

The CONcrete Visual assistEd Transformation (CONVErT) framework provides facilities to generate reusable notations and compose them to form a wide variety of visual-isations. With an increased number of notations in large scale visualisations, it is crucial to use advanced layout algorithms to improve understandability of such complex visualisations. This showpiece paper demonstrates how advanced layout algorithms can be integrated into the notation specifications of CONVErT to generate layouts of complex visualisations.

Approximation of centroid end-points and switch points for replacing type reduction algorithms

Despite several years of research, type reduction (TR) operation in interval type-2 fuzzy logic system (IT2FLS) cannot perform as fast as a type-1 defuzzifier. In particular, widely used Karnik-Mendel (KM) TR algorithm is computationally much more demanding than alternative TR approaches. In this work, a data driven framework is proposed to quickly, yet accurately, estimate the output of the KM TR algorithm using simple regression models. Comprehensive simulation performed in this study shows that the centroid end-points of KM algorithm can be approximated with a mean absolute percentage error as low as 0.4%. Also, switch point prediction accuracy can be as high as 100%. In conjunction with the fact that simple regression model can be trained with data generated using exhaustive defuzzification method, this work shows the potential of proposed method to provide highly accurate, yet extremely fast, TR approximation method. Speed of the proposed method should theoretically outperform all available TR methods while keeping the uncertainty information intact in the process.

Two maximum entropy-based algorithms for running quantile estimation in nonstationary data streams

The need to estimate a particular quantile of a distribution is an important problem that frequently arises in many computer vision and signal processing applications. For example, our work was motivated by the requirements of many semiautomatic surveillance analytics systems that detect abnormalities in close-circuit television footage using statistical models of low-level motion features. In this paper, we specifically address the problem of estimating the running quantile of a data stream when the memory for storing observations is limited. We make the following several major contributions: 1) we highlight the limitations of approaches previously described in the literature that make them unsuitable for nonstationary streams; 2) we describe a novel principle for the utilization of the available storage space; 3) we introduce two novel algorithms that exploit the proposed principle in different ways; and 4) we present a comprehensive evaluation and analysis of the proposed algorithms and the existing methods in the literature on both synthetic data sets and three large real-world streams acquired in the course of operation of an existing commercial surveillance system. Our findings convincingly demonstrate that both of the proposed methods are highly successful and vastly outperform the existing alternatives. We show that the better of the two algorithms (data-aligned histogram) exhibits far superior performance in comparison with the previously described methods, achieving more than 10 times lower estimate errors on real-world data, even when its available working memory is an order of magnitude smaller.

Switch point finding using polynomial regression for fuzzy type reduction algorithms

Karnik-Mendel (KM) algorithm is the most widely used type reduction (TR) method in literature for the design of interval type-2 fuzzy logic systems (IT2FLS). Its iterative nature for finding left and right switch points is its Achilles heel. Despite a decade of research, none of the alternative TR methods offer uncertainty measures equivalent to KM algorithm. This paper takes a data-driven approach to tackle the computational burden of this algorithm while keeping its key features. We propose a regression method to approximate left and right switch points found by KM algorithm. Approximator only uses the firing intervals, rnles centroids, and FLS strnctural features as inputs. Once training is done, it can precisely approximate the left and right switch points through basic vector multiplications. Comprehensive simulation results demonstrate that the approximation accuracy for a wide variety of FLSs is 100%. Flexibility, ease of implementation, and speed are other features of the proposed method.

Who is the cowboy in Washington?: beating google at their own game with neuroscience and cryptography

Who was the cowboy in Washington? What is the land of sushi? Most people would have answers to these questions readily available,yet, modern search engines, arguably the epitome of technology in finding answers to most questions, are completely unable to do so. It seems that people capture few information items to rapidly converge to a seemingly 'obvious' solution. We will study approaches for this problem, with two additional hard demands that constrain the space of possible theories: the sought model must be both psychologically and neuroscienti cally plausible. Building on top of the mathematical model of memory called Sparse Distributed Memory, we will see how some well-known methods in cryptography can point toward a promising, comprehensive, solution that preserves four crucial properties of human psychology.

Otimização de Algoritmos Criptográficos para Redes de Sensores e Atuadores Sem-fio para Poços do Tipo Plunger Lift

Wireless sensors and actuators Networks specified by IEEE 802.15.4, are becoming increasingly being applied to instrumentation, as in instrumentation of oil wells with completion Plunger Lift type. Due to specific characteristics of the environment being installed, it s find the risk of compromising network security, and presenting several attack scenarios and the potential damage from them. It`s found the need for a more detailed security study of these networks, which calls for use of encryption algorithms, like AES-128 bits and RC6. So then it was implement the algorithms RC6 and AES-128, in an 8 bits microcontroller, and study its performance characteristics, critical for embedded applications. From these results it was developed a Hybrid Algorithm Cryptographic, ACH, which showed intermediate characteristics between the AES and RC6, more appropriate for use in applications with limitations of power consumption and memory. Also was present a comparative study of quality of security among the three algorithms, proving ACH cryptographic capability.

Search schemes for random optimization algorithms that preserve the asymptotic distribution

Markovian algorithms for estimating the global maximum or minimum of real valued functions defined on some domain Omega subset of R-d are presented. Conditions on the search schemes that preserve the asymptotic distribution are derived. Global and local search schemes satisfying these conditions are analysed and shown to yield sharper confidence intervals when compared to the i.i.d. case.

Beam Search Algorithms for Minimizing Tool Switches on a Flexible Manufacturing System

In the minimization of tool switches problem we seek a sequence to process a set of jobs so that the number of tool switches required is minimized. In this work different variations of a heuristic based on partial ordered job sequences are implemented and evaluated. All variations adopt a depth first strategy of the enumeration tree. The computational test results indicate that good results can be obtained by a variation which keeps the best three branches at each node of the enumeration tree, and randomly choose, among all active nodes, the next node to branch when backtracking.

Allocation of protective devices in distribution circuits using nonlinear programming models and genetic algorithms

The optimized allocation of protective devices in strategic points of the circuit improves the quality of the energy supply and the system reliability index. This paper presents a nonlinear integer programming (NLIP) model with binary variables, to deal with the problem of protective device allocation in the main feeder and all branches of an overhead distribution circuit, to improve the reliability index and to provide customers with service of high quality and reliability. The constraints considered in the problem take into account technical and economical limitations, such as coordination problems of serial protective devices, available equipment, the importance of the feeder and the circuit topology. The use of genetic algorithms (GAs) is proposed to solve this problem, using a binary representation that does (1) or does not (0) show allocation of protective devices (reclosers, sectionalizers and fuses) in predefined points of the circuit. Results are presented for a real circuit (134 busses), with the possibility of protective device allocation in 29 points. Also the ability of the algorithm in finding good solutions while improving significantly the indicators of reliability is shown. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using Amino Acid Correlation and Community Detection Algorithms to Identify Functional Determinants in Protein Families

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Use of genetic algorithms and solvation potential to study peptides structure

In this work, genetic algorithms concepts along with a rotamer library for proteins side chains and implicit solvation potential are used to optimize the tertiary structure of peptides. We starting from the known PDB structure of its backbone which is kept fixed while the side chains allowed adopting the conformations present in the rotamer library. It was used rotamer library independent of backbone and a implicit solvation potential. The structure of Mastoporan-X was predicted using several force fields with a growing complexity; we started it with a field where the only present interaction was Lennard-Jones. We added the Coulombian term and we considered the solvation effects through a term proportional to the solvent accessible area. This paper present good and interesting results obtained using the potential with solvation term and rotamer library. Hence, the algorithm (called YODA) presented here can be a good tool to the prediction problem. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.