A predictive framework for modeling healthcare data with evolving clinical interventions

Medical interventions critically determine clinical outcomes. But prediction models either ignore interventions or dilute impact by building a single prediction rule by amalgamating interventions with other features. One rule across all interventions may not capture differential effects. Also, interventions change with time as innovations are made, requiring prediction models to evolve over time. To address these gaps, we propose a prediction framework that explicitly models interventions by extracting a set of latent intervention groups through a Hierarchical Dirichlet Process (HDP) mixture. Data are split in temporal windows and for each window, a separate distribution over the intervention groups is learnt. This ensures that the model evolves with changing interventions. The outcome is modeled as conditional, on both the latent grouping and the patients' condition, through a Bayesian logistic regression. Learning distributions for each time-window result in an over-complex model when interventions do not change in every time-window. We show that by replacing HDP with a dynamic HDP prior, a more compact set of distributions can be learnt. Experiments performed on two hospital datasets demonstrate the superiority of our framework over many existing clinical and traditional prediction frameworks.

Automated analysis of performance and energy consumption for cloud applications

In cloud environments, IT solutions are delivered to users via shared infrastructure. One consequence of this model is that large cloud data centres consume large amounts of energy and produce significant carbon footprints. A key objective of cloud providers is thus to develop resource provisioning and management solutions at minimum energy consumption while still guaranteeing Service Level Agreements (SLAs). However, a thorough understanding of both system performance and energy consumption patterns in complex cloud systems is imperative to achieve a balance of energy efficiency and acceptable performance. In this paper, we present StressCloud, a performance and energy consumption analysis tool for cloud systems. StressCloud can automatically generate load tests and profile system performance and energy consumption data. Using StressCloud, we have conducted extensive experiments to profile and analyse system performance and energy consumption with different types and mixes of runtime tasks. We collected finegrained energy consumption and performance data with different resource allocation strategies, system configurations and workloads. The experimental results show the correlation coefficients of energy consumption, system resource allocation strategies and workload, as well as the performance of the cloud applications. Our results can be used to guide the design and deployment of cloud applications to balance energy and performance requirements.

Collective bargaining in Brazilian manufacturing, 1978-95

Collective bargaining, it is widely claimed, has been on the increase in Brazil since the late 1970s. This is seen as part of a broader change in Brazilian industrial relations towards a hybrid system of interest representation, in which elements of both the old state corporatism and pluralism now coexist. However, there is little or no systematic empirical evidence available to support this conclusion. This thesis addresses the question of the strengthening of collective bargaining as a method of job regulation in Brazil by providing a detailed empirical study. The questions of this study are: (a) how important has collective bargaining become in establishing provisions on the terms and conditions of the employment relationship which are not simply reproducing rules established via state regulation?; and (b) what factors accounted for changes in the content of these provisions? An analysis of 10,734 provisions in 287 collective agreements in manufacturing industries in the Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre, the capital of the southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul, was carried out for the period of 1978-95. This analysis offers support for the thesis that the significance of collective bargaining has increased. It shows that: (a) most substantive provisions created rules that were not established in other forms of regulation; (b) provisions that replicate the contents of regulatory legislation accounted for one out of seven substantive provisions, but in spite of being a copy of the law, these provisions are not entirely neutral for job regulation; (c) collective agreements also laid down substantive provisions benefiting employers, and not simply employees; and (d) the pace of change in bargaining outcomes oscillated with changes in the economic, legal and judicial contexts. This pace of change was mostly affected by (i) the rate of unemployment, (ii) the degree of openness of the economy to foreign competition, (iii) the capacity of employers to pass on costs to costumers, (iv) stabilisation policies aimed at curbing inflation, (v) the Federal Constitution made in 1988, (vi) the official rate of minimum wages, and (vii) the conduct of the labour judicial system in settling collective disputes.

Aprendizagem de escrita de língua de sinais pelo sistema SignWriting : língua de sinais no papel e no computador

Esta tese trata de como o sistema SignWriting pode servir de suporte a uma nova proposta pedagógica ao ensino da escrita de língua de sinais e letramento para crianças surdas usuárias da Língua Brasileira de Sinais - Libras e da Língua de Sinais Francesa - LSF. Escrever deve ser uma atividade significativa para a criança. No caso da criança surda, a escrita fundamenta-se em sua competência na língua de sinais, sem precisar da intermediação da língua oral. A criança surda, quando em um ambiente onde ela e seus colegas se comunicam em língua de sinais, efetivamente tenta escrever sinais, quando é incentivada a fazê-lo. Em nossos experimentos, usamos o sistema SignWriting para mostrar ás crianças surdas (e a seus pais e professores) como escrever textos em línguas de sinais de ambas as formas: manuscrita e impressa, usando o programa Sign Writer para editar textos em línguas de sinais. A base teórica que apóia a tese é a abordagem bilíngüe para a educação de surdos, a língua de sinais, a teoria de Piaget, e de Ferreiro quando trata das etapas da alfabetização em língua oral. Esta investigação possui um caráter exploratório, em que o delineamento metodológico é dado pela pesquisa-ação. O primeiro estudo apresenta um levantamento do processo de aquisição da escrita de sinais, em sua forma manuscrita, pela criança e jovem surdo no Brasil e na França. O segundo estudo trata da ajuda que a informática pode dar a essa aquisição e de como utilizamos os softwares de escrita de língua de sinais em aulas de introdução ao uso do computador e em transcrições da LSF de corpus vídeo para a escrita de língua de sinais. Os resultados sugerem que as crianças evoluem em sua escrita, pois muitos signos que elas escreveram não foram sugeridos pela experimentadora, nem por outro meio, mas surgiram espontaneamente. A introdução de um software como o Sign Writer ou o SW-Edit nas classes para introduzir as TI traz a essas aulas muito maior interesse do que quando usamos um editor de textos na língua oral. Também as produções das crianças são mais sofisticadas. As conclusões indicam que a escrita de língua de sinais incorporada à educação das crianças surdas pode significar um avanço significativo na consolidação de uma educação realmente bilíngüe, na evolução das línguas de sinais e aponta para a possibilidade de novas abordagens ao ensino da língua oral como segunda língua.

Análise da resistência a sistemas de informação: a percepção dos gestores de tecnologia da informação acerca de sistemas ERP

Este trabalho visa obter e verificar empiricamente um meta-modelo que possa apoiar e aprofundar a compreensão do fenômeno da resistência a sistemas de informação. Tratase de uma pesquisa explanatória e quantitativa na qual faz-se, por meio de uma extensa revisão da literatura mundial, o levantamento e consolidação das principais teorias e modelos existentes sobre o tema. Dessa forma, buscando obter um melhor entendimento do problema de pesquisa, propõe-se um meta-modelo de fatores pertinentes ao comportamento de resistência a sistemas de informação. Neste modelo, considera-se um conjunto de aspectos que, embora já abordados anteriormente, em sua maior parte ainda não haviam sido testados empiricamente, quais sejam: (i) as características idiossincráticas dos indivíduos, (ii) os aspectos técnicos inerentes aos sistemas de informação, (iii) as características da interação sócio-técnica, (iv) as características da interação de poder e políticas e, finalmente, (v) as características das organizações nas quais a tecnologia e o homem estão inseridos e interagem entre si. O instrumento de pesquisa utilizado no trabalho foi um questionário estruturado, aplicado via Internet, com suas questões contextualizadas quanto aos sistemas de gestão empresarial ERPs: Enterprise Resource Planning Systems. Obteve-se um total de 169 respondentes, considerando-se uma amostra composta exclusivamente por gestores de tecnologia da informação (TI) brasileiros e que tenham vivenciado pelo menos uma experiência de implantação de sistemas ERP ao longo de suas carreiras. Uma vez realizada a coleta dos dados, foram empregados testes estatísticos relativos à análise fatorial, visando alcançar um modelo definitivo. A partir do novo modelo encontrado, por meio da validação proporcionada pela análise fatorial, cada fator identificado representou uma causa para o comportamento de resistência a sistemas de informação. Por fim, testou-se também hipóteses a partir do novo modelo identificado, verificando-se as relações entre a percepção direta dos gestores quanto à resistência e os diversos fatores considerados relevantes para a explicação deste comportamento. Como resultado do estudo, consolidou-se um modelo de análise do comportamento de resistência a sistemas de informação, baseado na percepção do gestor de TI e contextualizado nos sistemas ERPs.

Growth and exchange rate volatility: a panel data analysis

The aim of this article is to assess the role of real effective exchange rate volatility on long-run economic growth for a set of 82 advanced and emerging economies using a panel data set ranging from 1970 to 2009. With an accurate measure for exchange rate volatility, the results for the two-step system GMM panel growth models show that a more (less) volatile RER has significant negative (positive) impact on economic growth and the results are robust for different model specifications. In addition to that, exchange rate stability seems to be more important to foster long-run economic growth than exchange rate misalignment

Suspeição e impedimento nos processos objetivos de controle de constitucionalidade concentrado

O Brasil adota o sistema hibrido de controle de constitucionalidade, englobando tanto a modalidade difusa como a concentrada. O objeto do trabalho é o controle concentrado, que se caracteriza por um processo objetivo onde inexistem partes em sentido formal e conflito de interesses subjetivos. Aprioristicamente, a objetividade dá a entender que institutos que dizem respeito à subjetividade do julgador, como o impedimento e a suspeição, não seriam aplicáveis. O posicionamento do Supremo Tribunal Federal se aproxima desta concepção, aceitando hipóteses muito restritas de aplicação do impedimento e rechaçando a incidência da suspeição. Esta posição reclama urgente revisão por parte da Corte pelas razões expostas e estudos de julgados apresentados no trabalho.

Dunging gutters filled with fresh water in finishing barns had no effect on the prevalence of Salmonella enterica on Brazilian swine farms

Our aim was to assess the importance of dunging gutters filled with water in finishing barns for the prevalence of pigs shedding Salmonella enterica. Some finishing barns in Brazil are provided with a dunging-gutter system which consists of a continuous water flow at the back of solid-floored adjacent pens. Because there is transfer of faecal material between adjacent pens by water in this system and the faecal-oral route of transmission is so important for enteric pathogens, we tested the hypothesis that the presence of this kind of dunging-gutter system in finishing barns affects the prevalence of slaughter-age pigs shedding salmonella organisms in their faeces. The cross-sectional study was conducted on six farms each having barns with and barns without a dunging-gutter system. Breeding, management, nutritional and seasonal factors were similar in both barns on each farm. The two systems did not differ in prevalence of pigs shedding salmonella organisms. Five S. enterica scrotypes were isolated: S. Agona, S. Javiana, S. Rissen, S. Sandiego and S. Senftenberg. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Manejo da irrigação na cultura do feijoeiro em sistemas plantio direto e convencional

O manejo inadequado do solo e da água é limitante à produtividade do feijoeiro irrigado. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar dois métodos de manejo da irrigação, um via solo (tensiometria) e outro via clima (tanque Classe A), conjugados com os sistemas plantio direto e convencional de manejo do solo com a cultura do feijoeiro de inverno, no segundo ano de plantio direto, em Jaboticabal - SP. Foi medido o potencial mátrico do solo e estimada a variação diária do armazenamento de água no solo, na camada de 0 a 0,40 m de profundidade, e avaliados os componentes de produtividade, além de determinadas a evapotranspiração real média e a eficiência média de uso de água pela cultura. O sistema de preparo convencional do solo com manejo de irrigação pelo tanque Classe A proporcionou maior produtividade de grãos, evapotranspiração média e eficiência de uso de água pela cultura, seguido pelo plantio direto com manejo de irrigação por tensiometria e por tanque Classe A. O sistema plantio direto foi menos suscetível às variações hídricas no solo decorrentes dos manejos de irrigação empregados do que o sistema de preparo convencional, resultando em menor variação na produtividade de grãos.

Analise SWOT do gerenciamento de resíduos do coco verde em duas agroindústrias do estado do Rio Grande do Norte

In the current conjuncture, the environmental factor has been changing the position of companies that are practicing or minimally adopting environmental management. Such tool has been used by companies to face the problems caused by solid waste, in particular green coconut waste, which is constantly among the material discarded by society (companies/ consumer). It is a typical tropical fruit whose fresh water is very benefic for human health, and its popularization has caused a progressive increase of its consumption. Following this stream of thought, this present work came up with an analysis of strengths, weaknesses, threats, and opportunities SWOT analysis on green coconut solid waste management at two agribusiness companies in the state of Rio Grande do Norte (RN), Brazil, aiming to know the challenges and the potentials of this kind of waste. According to the approach of the problem, this work fits a descriptive, exploratory, and qualitative research. The data collection was obtained by a questionnaire and a structured interview, in order to evaluate the strategic posture of agribusiness companies through SWOT analysis, which is an English acronym for Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats. The SWOT analysis is an effective tool to analyze the internal and external environment of an organization. This tool contributes to locate the company at the environment in question and when well applied it enables the detection of mistakes, the strengthening of correct procedures, the avoidance of threats, and the bet on opportunities. The studied agribusiness industries have very similar profiles, such as a long business life span, and a strategy that extends the useful life of the fruit, by using its waste for the manufacturing of new subproducts. In both, the daily quantity of waste resulted of this process reaches approximately 20 thousand units of the fruit in high season, being necessary a focus directed at use and/or treatment of these waste. Further to SWOT analysis, it was ascertained that the agribusiness company A works through a defensive marketing strategy and acts vulnerably, in other words, unable of acting before this market segment, for it has decided to stop using the waste due to a lack of equipment and technology. On the other hand, the agribusiness company B has incorporated an offensive marketing strategy because even not possessing equipments, technology, and appropriated internal installations, it still insists on use and benefits of green coconut waste in its agribusiness. Thus, it is considered that the potential of green coconut waste management for the production of several subproducts reduces the impacts produced by inappropriate placement and generates profits in a short, medium and long term. Such profits being tangible and intangible, as the interest for sustainability actions is not only a matter of obtaining return on capital, but it is an important question in order to move on into business, since it is not enough to have quality on products and process nowadays. It is necessary to establish socio-environmental practices aiming the image of the company as the prevailing role on consumers buying decision

Projeto e controle de um sistema de aquecimento no Laboratório de Avaliação de Medição em Petróleo

The Oil Measurement Evaluation Laboratory (LAMP), located in the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN), has as main goal to evaluate flow and BS&W meters, where the simulation of a bigger number of operation variable in field, guarantees a less uncertain evaluation. The objective of this work is to purpose a heating system design and implementation, which will control the temperature safely and efficiently in order to evaluate and measure it. Temperature is one of the variables which influence the flow and BS&W accurate measurement, directly affecting the fluid viscosity and density in the experiment. To project the heating system it is of great importance to take the laboratory requirements, conditions and current restrictions into consideration. Three alternatives were evaluated: heat exchanger, internal resistance and external resistance. After the analyses are made in order to choose the best alternative for the heating system in the laboratory, control strategies were determined for it, PID control methods in combination with fuzzy logic were used. Results showed a better performance with fuzzy logic than with classic PID

Co-cultivation of plant cells as a technique for the elicitation of secondary metabolite production

Cells of Mikania glomerata, Cephaelis ipecacuanha and Maytenus aquifolia were co-cultured in a two-phase system using filter paper as a solid support. The species were co-cultured in all possible paired combinations. Interaction between Mikania and Maytenus cells resulted in increased biomass production of Maytenus cells, but the friedelin content was reduced. Co-cultivation of Cephaelis and Mikania cells enhanced coumarin content, but inhibited the growth of Mikania cells. However, yield of emetine as well as Cephaelis biomass accumulation were positively stimulated by the co-cultivation. Results indicate a possible occurrence of allelopathy in such a system.

Modelo matemático para otimização dos custos de um sistema híbrido eólico-solar : aplicação no bombeamento de petróleo

This work purposes the application of a methodology to optimize the implantation cost of an wind-solar hybrid system for oil pumping. The developed model is estimated the implantation cost of system through Multiple Linear Regression technique, on the basis of the previous knowledge of variables: necessary capacity of storage, total daily energy demand, wind power, module power and module number. These variables are gotten by means of sizing. The considered model not only can be applied to the oil pumping, but also for any other purposes of electric energy generation for conversion of solar, wind or solar-wind energy, that demand short powers. Parametric statistical T-student tests had been used to detect the significant difference in the average of total cost to being considered the diameter of the wind, F by Snedecor in the variance analysis to test if the coefficients of the considered model are significantly different of zero and test not-parametric statistical by Friedman, toverify if there is difference in the system cost, by being considered the photovoltaic module powers. In decision of hypothesis tests was considered a 5%-significant level. The configurations module powers showed significant differences in total cost of investment by considering an electrical motor of 3 HP. The configurations module powers showed significant differences in total cost of investment by considering an electrical motor of 5 HP only to wind speed of 4m/s and 6 m/s in wind of 3 m, 4m and 5 m of diameter. There was not significant difference in costs to diameters of winds of 3 m and 4m. The mathematical model and the computational program may be used to others applications which require electrical between 2.250 W and 3.750 W. A computational program was developed to assist the study of several configurations that optimizes the implantation cost of an wind-solar system through considered mathematical model

Estudo de um sistema híbrido de destilação solar para polimento de águas produzidas

The oil industry, experiencing a great economic and environmental impact, has increasingly invested in researches aiming a more satisfactory treatment of its largest effluent, i.e., produced water. These are mostly discarded at sea, without reuse and after a basic treatment. Such effluent contains a range of organic compounds with high toxicity and are difficult to remove, such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, salts, heavy metals, etc.. The main objective of this work was to study the solar distillation of produced water pre-treated to remove salts and other contaminants trough of a hybrid system with a pre-heater. This developed apparatus was called solar system, which consists of a solar heater and a conventional distillation solar still. The first device consisted of a water tank, a solar flat plate collector and a thermal reservoir. The solar distillator is of simple effect, with 1m2 of flat area and 20° of inclination. This dissertation was divided in five steps: measurements in the solar system, i.e. temperatures and distillate flow rate and weather data; modeling and simulation of the system; study of vapor-liquid equilibrium of the synthetic wastewater by the aqueous solution of p-xylene; physical and chemical analyses of samples of the feed, distillate and residue, as well as climatology pertinent variables of Natal-RN. The solar system was tested separately, with the supply water, aqueous NaCl and synthetic oil produced water. Temperature measurements were taken every minute of the thermal reservoir, water tank and distillator (liquid and vapor phases). Data of solar radiation and rainfall were obtained from INPE (National Institute for Space Research). The solar pre-heater demonstrated to be effective for the liquid systems tested. The reservoir fluid had an average temperature of 58°C, which enabled the feed to be pre-heated in the distillator. The temperature profile in the solar distillator showed a similar behavior to daily solar radiation, with temperatures near 70°C. The distillation had an average yield of 2.4 L /day, i.e., an efficiency of 27.2%. Mathematical modeling aided the identification of the most important variables and parameters in the solar system. The study of the vapor-liquid equilibrium from Total Organic Carbon (TOC) analysis indicated heteroazeotropia and the vapor phase resulted more concentrated in p-xylene. The physical-chemical analysis of pH, conductivity, Total Dissolved Solids (TDS), chlorides, cations (including heavy metals) and anions, the effluent distillate showed satisfactory results, which presents a potential for reuse. The climatological study indicates the region of Natal-RN as favorable to the operation of solar systems, but the use of auxiliary heating during periods of higher rainfall and cloud cover is also recommended