Forecasting a language shift based on cellular automata

Language extinction as a consequence of language shifts is a widespread social phenomenon that affects several million people all over the world today. An important task for social sciences research should therefore be to gain an understanding of language shifts, especially as a way of forecasting the extinction or survival of threatened languages, i.e., determining whether or not the subordinate language will survive in communities with a dominant and a subordinate language. In general, modeling is usually a very difficult task in the social sciences, particularly when it comes to forecasting the values of variables. However, the cellular automata theory can help us overcome this traditional difficulty. The purpose of this article is to investigate language shifts in the speech behavior of individuals using the methodology of the cellular automata theory. The findings on the dynamics of social impacts in the field of social psychology and the empirical data from language surveys on the use of Catalan in Valencia allowed us to define a cellular automaton and carry out a set of simulations using that automaton. The simulation results highlighted the key factors in the progression or reversal of a language shift and the use of these factors allowed us to forecast the future of a threatened language in a bilingual community.

Business model design: an evaluation of paper-based and computer-aided canvases

In recent years, Business Model Canvas design has evolved from being a paper-based activity to one that involves the use of dedicated computer-aided business model design tools. We propose a set of guidelines to help design more coherent business models. When combined with functionalities offered by CAD tools, they show great potential to improve business model design as an ongoing activity. However, in order to create complex solutions, it is necessary to compare basic business model design tasks, using a CAD system over its paper-based counterpart. To this end, we carried out an experiment to measure user perceptions of both solutions. Performance was evaluated by applying our guidelines to both solutions and then carrying out a comparison of business model designs. Although CAD did not outperform paper-based design, the results are very encouraging for the future of computer-aided business model design.

Conditioning of multiple-point statistics facies simulations to tomographic images

Geophysical tomography captures the spatial distribution of the underlying geophysical property at a relatively high resolution, but the tomographic images tend to be blurred representations of reality and generally fail to reproduce sharp interfaces. Such models may cause significant bias when taken as a basis for predictive flow and transport modeling and are unsuitable for uncertainty assessment. We present a methodology in which tomograms are used to condition multiple-point statistics (MPS) simulations. A large set of geologically reasonable facies realizations and their corresponding synthetically calculated cross-hole radar tomograms are used as a training image. The training image is scanned with a direct sampling algorithm for patterns in the conditioning tomogram, while accounting for the spatially varying resolution of the tomograms. In a post-processing step, only those conditional simulations that predicted the radar traveltimes within the expected data error levels are accepted. The methodology is demonstrated on a two-facies example featuring channels and an aquifer analog of alluvial sedimentary structures with five facies. For both cases, MPS simulations exhibit the sharp interfaces and the geological patterns found in the training image. Compared to unconditioned MPS simulations, the uncertainty in transport predictions is markedly decreased for simulations conditioned to tomograms. As an improvement to other approaches relying on classical smoothness-constrained geophysical tomography, the proposed method allows for: (1) reproduction of sharp interfaces, (2) incorporation of realistic geological constraints and (3) generation of multiple realizations that enables uncertainty assessment.

Cluster glasses of ultrasoft particles

We present molecular dynamics (MD) simulations results for dense fluids of ultrasoft, fully penetrable particles. These are a binary mixture and a polydisperse system of particles interacting via the generalized exponential model, which is known to yield cluster crystal phases for the corresponding monodisperse systems. Because of the dispersity in the particle size, the systems investigated in this work do not crystallize and form disordered cluster phases. The clusteringtransition appears as a smooth crossover to a regime in which particles are mostly located in clusters, isolated particles being infrequent. The analysis of the internal cluster structure reveals microsegregation of the big and small particles, with a strong homo-coordination in the binary mixture. Upon further lowering the temperature below the clusteringtransition, the motion of the clusters" centers-of-mass slows down dramatically, giving way to a cluster glass transition. In the cluster glass, the diffusivities remain finite and display an activated temperature dependence, indicating that relaxation in the cluster glass occurs via particle hopping in a nearly arrested matrix of clusters. Finally we discuss the influence of the microscopic dynamics on the transport properties by comparing the MD results with Monte Carlo simulations.

Segmentation model for small and medium size business sector: Case Oy Compaq Computer Ab

Markkinasegmentointi nousi esiin ensi kerran jo 50-luvulla ja se on ollut siitä lähtien yksi markkinoinnin peruskäsitteistä. Suuri osa segmentointia käsittelevästä tutkimuksesta on kuitenkin keskittynyt kuluttajamarkkinoiden segmentointiin yritys- ja teollisuusmarkkinoiden segmentoinnin jäädessä vähemmälle huomiolle. Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena on luoda segmentointimalli teollismarkkinoille tietotekniikan tuotteiden ja palveluiden tarjoajan näkökulmasta. Tarkoituksena on selvittää mahdollistavatko case-yrityksen nykyiset asiakastietokannat tehokkaan segmentoinnin, selvittää sopivat segmentointikriteerit sekä arvioida tulisiko tietokantoja kehittää ja kuinka niitä tulisi kehittää tehokkaamman segmentoinnin mahdollistamiseksi. Tarkoitus on luoda yksi malli eri liiketoimintayksiköille yhteisesti. Näin ollen eri yksiköiden tavoitteet tulee ottaa huomioon eturistiriitojen välttämiseksi. Tutkimusmetodologia on tapaustutkimus. Lähteinä tutkimuksessa käytettiin sekundäärisiä lähteitä sekä primäärejä lähteitä kuten case-yrityksen omia tietokantoja sekä haastatteluita. Tutkimuksen lähtökohtana oli tutkimusongelma: Voiko tietokantoihin perustuvaa segmentointia käyttää kannattavaan asiakassuhdejohtamiseen PK-yritys sektorilla? Tavoitteena on luoda segmentointimalli, joka hyödyntää tietokannoissa olevia tietoja tinkimättä kuitenkaan tehokkaan ja kannattavan segmentoinnin ehdoista. Teoriaosa tutkii segmentointia yleensä painottuen kuitenkin teolliseen markkinasegmentointiin. Tarkoituksena on luoda selkeä kuva erilaisista lähestymistavoista aiheeseen ja syventää näkemystä tärkeimpien teorioiden osalta. Tietokantojen analysointi osoitti selviä puutteita asiakastiedoissa. Peruskontaktitiedot löytyvät mutta segmentointia varten tietoa on erittäin rajoitetusti. Tietojen saantia jälleenmyyjiltä ja tukkureilta tulisi parantaa loppuasiakastietojen saannin takia. Segmentointi nykyisten tietojen varassa perustuu lähinnä sekundäärisiin tietoihin kuten toimialaan ja yrityskokoon. Näitäkään tietoja ei ole saatavilla kaikkien tietokannassa olevien yritysten kohdalta.

Mobile Protocol Stack Simulator

Nykypäivän maailma tukeutuu verkkoihin. Tietokoneverkot ja langattomat puhelimet ovat jo varsin tavallisia suurelle joukolle ihmisiä. Uusi verkkotyyppi on ilmestynyt edelleen helpottamaan ihmisten verkottunutta elämää. Ad hoc –verkot mahdollistavat joustavan verkonmuodostuksen langattomien päätelaitteiden välille ilman olemassa olevaa infrastruktuuria. Diplomityö esittelee uuden simulaatiotyökalun langattomien ad hoc –verkkojen simulointiin protokollatasolla. Se esittelee myös kyseisten verkkojen taustalla olevat periaatteet ja teoriat. Lähemmin tutkitaan OSI-mallin linkkikerroksen kaistanjakoprotokollia ad hoc –verkoissa sekä vastaavan toteutusta simulaattorissa. Lisäksi esitellään joukko simulaatioajoja esimerkiksi simulaattorin toiminnasta ja mahdollisista käyttökohteista.

Estimating 750 years of temperature variations and uncertainties in the Pyrenees by tree-ring reconstructions and climate simulations.

Past temperature variations are usually inferred from proxy data or estimated using general circulation models. Comparisons between climate estimations derived from proxy records and from model simulations help to better understand mechanisms driving climate variations, and also offer the possibility to identify deficiencies in both approaches. This paper presents regional temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring maximum density series in the Pyrenees, and compares them with the output of global simulations for this region and with regional climate model simulations conducted for the target region. An ensemble of 24 reconstructions of May-to-September regional mean temperature was derived from 22 maximum density tree-ring site chronologies distributed over the larger Pyrenees area. Four different tree-ring series standardization procedures were applied, combining two detrending methods: 300-yr spline and the regional curve standardization (RCS). Additionally, different methodological variants for the regional chronology were generated by using three different aggregation methods. Calibration verification trials were performed in split periods and using two methods: regression and a simple variance matching. The resulting set of temperature reconstructions was compared with climate simulations performed with global (ECHO-G) and regional (MM5) climate models. The 24 variants of May-to-September temperature reconstructions reveal a generally coherent pattern of inter-annual to multi-centennial temperature variations in the Pyrenees region for the last 750 yr. However, some reconstructions display a marked positive trend for the entire length of the reconstruction, pointing out that the application of the RCS method to a suboptimal set of samples may lead to unreliable results. Climate model simulations agree with the tree-ring based reconstructions at multi-decadal time scales, suggesting solar variability and volcanism as the main factors controlling preindustrial mean temperature variations in the Pyrenees. Nevertheless, the comparison also highlights differences with the reconstructions, mainly in the amplitude of past temperature variations and in the 20th century trends. Neither proxy-based reconstructions nor model simulations are able to perfectly track the temperature variations of the instrumental record, suggesting that both approximations still need further improvements.

Computer-aided system for morphometric mandibular index computation (Using dental panoramic radiographs)

Objective: We propose and validate a computer aided system to measure three different mandibular indexes: cortical width, panoramic mandibular index and, mandibular alveolar bone resorption index. Study Design: Repeatability and reproducibility of the measurements are analyzed and compared to the manual estimation of the same indexes. Results: The proposed computerized system exhibits superior repeatability and reproducibility rates compared to standard manual methods. Moreover, the time required to perform the measurements using the proposed method is negligible compared to perform the measurements manually. Conclusions: We have proposed a very user friendly computerized method to measure three different morphometric mandibular indexes. From the results we can conclude that the system provides a practical manner to perform these measurements. It does not require an expert examiner and does not take more than 16 seconds per analysis. Thus, it may be suitable to diagnose osteoporosis using dental panoramic radiographs

Mesoscale numerical analysis of the historical November 1982 heavy precipitation event over Andorra (Eastern Pyrenees)

From 6 to 8 November 1982 one of the most catastrophic flash-flood events was recorded in the Eastern Pyrenees affecting Andorra and also France and Spain with rainfall accumulations exceeding 400 mm in 24 h, 44 fatalities and widespread damage. This paper aims to exhaustively document this heavy precipitation event and examines mesoscale simulations performed by the French Meso-NH non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. Large-scale simulations show the slow-evolving synoptic environment favourable for the development of a deep Atlantic cyclone which induced a strong southerly flow over the Eastern Pyrenees. From the evolution of the synoptic pattern four distinct phases have been identified during the event. The mesoscale analysis presents the second and the third phase as the most intense in terms of rainfall accumulations and highlights the interaction of the moist and conditionally unstable flows with the mountains. The presence of a SW low level jet (30 m s-1) around 1500 m also had a crucial role on focusing the precipitation over the exposed south slopes of the Eastern Pyrenees. Backward trajectories based on Eulerian on-line passive tracers indicate that the orographic uplift was the main forcing mechanism which triggered and maintained the precipitating systems more than 30 h over the Pyrenees. The moisture of the feeding flow mainly came from the Atlantic Ocean (7-9 g kg-1) and the role of the Mediterranean as a local moisture source was very limited (2-3 g kg-1) due to the high initial water vapour content of the parcels and the rapid passage over the basin along the Spanish Mediterranean coast (less than 12 h).

Combined T2 -preparation and two-dimensional pencil-beam inner volume selection.

PURPOSE: To improve coronary magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) by combining a two-dimensional (2D) spatially selective radiofrequency (RF) pulse with a T2 -preparation module ("2D-T2 -Prep"). METHODS: An adiabatic T2 -Prep was modified so that the first and last pulses were of differing spatial selectivity. The first RF pulse was replaced by a 2D pulse, such that a pencil-beam volume is excited. The last RF pulse remains nonselective, thus restoring the T2 -prepared pencil-beam, while tipping the (formerly longitudinal) magnetization outside of the pencil-beam into the transverse plane, where it is then spoiled. Thus, only a cylinder of T2 -prepared tissue remains for imaging. Numerical simulations were followed by phantom validation and in vivo coronary MRA, where the technique was quantitatively evaluated. Reduced field-of-view (rFoV) images were similarly studied. RESULTS: In vivo, full field-of-view 2D-T2 -Prep significantly improved vessel sharpness as compared to conventional T2 -Prep, without adversely affecting signal-to-noise (SNR) or contrast-to-noise ratios (CNR). It also reduced respiratory motion artifacts. In rFoV images, the SNR, CNR, and vessel sharpness decreased, although scan time reduction was 60%. CONCLUSION: When compared with conventional T2 -Prep, the 2D-T2 -Prep improves vessel sharpness and decreases respiratory ghosting while preserving both SNR and CNR. It may also acquire rFoV images for accelerated data acquisition.

Flocking behaviour: Agent-based simulation and hierarchical leadership.

We have studied how leaders emerge in a group as a consequence of interactions among its members. We propose that leaders can emerge as a consequence of a self-organized process based on local rules of dyadic interactions among individuals. Flocks are an example of self-organized behaviour in a group and properties similar to those observed in flocks might also explain some of the dynamics and organization of human groups. We developed an agent-based model that generated flocks in a virtual world and implemented it in a multi-agent simulation computer program that computed indices at each time step of the simulation to quantify the degree to which a group moved in a coordinated way (index of flocking behaviour) and the degree to which specific individuals led the group (index of hierarchical leadership). We ran several series of simulations in order to test our model and determine how these indices behaved under specific agent and world conditions. We identified the agent, world property, and model parameters that made stable, compact flocks emerge, and explored possible environmental properties that predicted the probability of becoming a leader.