Risk assessment of exposure to multiple mycotoxins in food

Moulds may produce a diversity of toxins such as aflatoxins, ochratoxins, trichothecenes, zearalenone, fumonisins and others. Although toxicological, environmental and epidemiological studies have addressed the problem of these toxins one by one, more than one mycotoxin are found usually in the same contaminated food. Risk assessment for humans potentially exposed to multimycotoxins suffers very much from the lack of adequate food consumption data. Furthermore, for a given mycotoxin, synergism and antagonism with other mycotoxins, found in the same food commodities, are not taken into account. Aflatoxin B1 and ochratoxin A belong to the most frequently occurring mycotoxins. This has repeatedly been demonstrated, however, normally, the risk resulting from their simultaneous occurrence is not considered. A descriptive study was developed to monitor air fungal contamination in one hospital food unit.

Poverty levels and children's health status: study of risk factors in an urban population of low socioeconomic level

To test the hypothesis that the low socioeconomic population living is shanty towns in Porto Alegre presents different levels of poverty which are reflected on its health status, a cross-sectional study was designed involving 477 families living in Vila Grande Cruzeiro, Porto Alegre, Brazil. The poverty level of the families was measured by using an instrument specifically designed for poor urban populations. Children from families living in extreme poverty (poorest quartile) were found to have higher infant mortality rate, lower birth weights, more hospitalizations, and higher malnutrition rates, in addition to belonging to more numerous families. Thus, the shanty town population of Porto Alegre is not homogeneous, and priority should be given to the more vulnerable subgroups.

Environmental exposure to toxicants mixtures from a multi-purpose estuary: perspectives for a biomonitoring study in Portugal

This work was focused on a multi-purpose estuarine environment (river Sado estuary, SW Portugal) around which a number of activities (e.g., fishing, farming, heavy industry, tourism and recreational activities) coexist with urban centres with a total of about 200 000 inhabitants. Based on previous knowledge of the hazardous chemicals within the ecosystem and their potential toxicity to benthic species, this project intended to evaluate the impact of estuarine contaminants on the human and ecosystem health. An integrative methodology based on epidemiological, analytical and biological data and comprising several lines of evidence, namely, human contamination pathways, human health effects, consumption of local produce, estuarine sediments, wells and soils contamination, effects on commercial benthic organisms, and genotoxic potential of sediments, was used. The epidemiological survey confirmed the occurrence of direct and indirect (through food chain) exposure of the local population to estuarine contaminants. Furthermore, the complex mixture of contaminants (e.g., metals, pesticides, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) trapped in the estuary sediments was toxic to human liver cells exposed in vitro, causing cell death, oxidative stress and genotoxic effects that might constitute a risk factor for the development of chronic-degenerative diseases, on the long term. Finally, the integration of data from several endpoints indicated that the estuary is moderately impacted by toxicants that affect also the aquatic biota. Nevertheless, the human health risk can only be correctly assessed through a biomonitoring study including the quantification of contaminants (or metabolites) in biological fluids as well as biomarkers of early biological effects (e.g., biochemical, genetic and omics-based endpoints) and genetic susceptibility in the target population. Data should be supported by a detailed survey to assess the impact of the contaminated seafood and local farm products consumption on human health and, particularly, on metabolic diseases or cancer development.

Risk factors for perinatal mortality in an urban area of Southern Brazil, 1993

INTRODUCTION: Although there was a considerable reduction in infant mortality in Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul in the last decade, its perinatal causes were reduced only by 28%. The associated factors of these causes were analised. MATERIAL AND METHOD: All hospital births and perinatal deaths were assessed by daily visits to all the maternity hospitals in the city, throughout 1993 and including the first week of 1994. RESULTS: The perinatal mortality rate was 22.1 per thousand births. The multivariate analysis showed the following risk factors: low socioeconomic level, male sex and maternal age above 35 years . Among multigravidae women, the fetal mortality rate was significantly increased for mothers with a previously low birthweight and a previous stillbirth. For early neonatal mortality the risk was significantly increased by a smaller number of antenatal visits than 5 and low birthweight. CONCLUSIONS: Main risk factors for perinatal mortality: low socioeconomic level, maternal age above 35 years and male sex. For early neonatal mortality the risk was significantly increased by a smaller number of antenatal visits than 5 and low birthweight.

Valor preditivo do "Clinical Risk Index for Babies" para o risco de mortalidade neonatal

OBJETIVO: Comparar o valor preditivo do CRIB (Clinical Risk Index for Babies) para o risco de mortalidade neonatal ao peso de nascimento (PN) e idade gestacional (IG). MÉTODO: Numa coorte prospectiva foram estudados, durante o ano de 1996, 71 recém-nascidos admitidos na unidade de terapia intensiva, com PN < 1.500 g e/ou IG < 31 semanas. RESULTADOS: A taxa de mortalidade foi de 29,6%; para PN < 1.000 g ou IG < 29 semanas foi de 60%, enquanto que para o escore de CRIB > 10 foi de 100%. CONCLUSÕES: O escore de CRIB > 10 correspondeu a maiores especificidade e valor preditivo positivo em relação aos demais parâmetros. A área determinada pela "receiver operating characteristic" relativa ao CRIB também foi superior. O CRIB mostrou-se um marcador mais acurado na previsão de risco de mortalidade quando comparado ao PN ou IG isoladamente.

The risk-return trade-off in Europe: A temporal and cross-sectional analysis

This paper analyzes the risk-return trade-off in European equities considering both temporal and cross-sectional dimensions. In our analysis, we introduce not only the market portfolio but also 15 industry portfolios comprising the entire market. Several bivariate GARCH models are estimated to obtain the covariance matrix between excess market returns and the industrial portfolios and the existence of a risk-return trade-off is analyzed through a cross-sectional approach using the information in all portfolios. It is obtained evidence for a positive and significant risk-return trade-off in the European market. This conclusion is robust for different GARCH specifications and is even more evident after controlling for the main financial crisis during the sample period.

Optimal insurance with counterparty default risk

We study the design of optimal insurance contracts when the insurer can default on its obligations. In our model default arises endogenously from the interaction of the insurance premium, the indemnity schedule and the insurer’s assets. This allows us to understand the joint effect of insolvency risk and background risk on efficient contracts. The results may shed light on the aggregate risk retention sched- ules observed in catastrophe reinsurance markets, and can assist in the design of (re)insurance programs and guarantee funds.

What drives corporate default risk premia? Evidence from the CDS market

This paper studies the evolution of the default risk premia for European firms during the years surrounding the recent credit crisis. We employ the information embedded in Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and Moody’s KMV EDF default probabilities to analyze the common factors driving this risk premia. The risk premium is characterized in several directions: Firstly, we perform a panel data analysis to capture the relationship between CDS spreads and actual default probabilities. Secondly, we employ the intensity framework of Jarrow et al. (2005) in order to measure the theoretical effect of risk premium on expected bond returns. Thirdly, we carry out a dynamic panel data to identify the macroeconomic sources of risk premium. Finally, a vector autoregressive model analyzes which proportion of the co-movement is attributable to financial or macro variables. Our estimations report coefficients for risk premium substantially higher than previously referred for US firms and a time varying behavior. A dominant factor explains around 60% of the common movements in risk premia. Additionally, empirical evidence suggests a public-to-private risk transfer between the sovereign CDS spreads and corporate risk premia.

Systematic and liquidity risk in sub-prime mortgage-backed assets

The mis-evaluation of risk in securitized financial products is central to understanding the global financial crisis. This paper characterizes the evolution of risk factors affecting collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) based on subprime mortgages. A key feature of subprime mortgage-backed indices is that they are distinct in their vintage of issuance. Using a latent factor framework that incorporates this vintage effect, we show the increasing importance of common factors on more senior tranches during the crisis. An innovation of the paper is that we use the unbalanced panel structure of the data to identify the vintage, credit, common and idiosyncratic effects from a state-space specification.

Model risk in the pricing of exotic options

The growth experimented in recent years in both the variety and volume of structured products implies that banks and other financial institutions have become increasingly exposed to model risk. In this article we focus on the model risk associated with the local volatility (LV) model and with the Variance Gamma (VG) model. The results show that the LV model performs better than the VG model in terms of its ability to match the market prices of European options. Nevertheless, both models are subject to significant pricing errors when compared with the stochastic volatility framework.

Idiosyncratic risk really drives stock returns; Spanish evidence

Following the theoretical model of Merton (1987), we provide a new perspective of study about the role of idiosyncratic risk in the asset pricing process. More precisely, we analyze whether the idiosyncratic risk premium depends on the idiosyncratic risk level of an asset as well as the vatriation in the market-wide measure of idiosyncratic risk. As expected, we obtain a net positive risk premium for the Spanish stock market over the period 1987-2007. Our results show a positive relation between returns and individual indiosyncratic risk levels and a negative but lower relation with the aggregate measure of idiosyncratic risk. These findings have important implications for portfolio and risk management and contribute to provide a unified and coherent answer for the main and still unsolved question about the idiosyncratic risk puzzle: whether or not there exists a premium associated to this kind of risk and the sign for this risk premium.

Reward-risk efficiency in proportional reinsurance with different risk measures

We have studied, in particular under normality of the implied random variables, the connections between different measures of risk such as the standard deviation, the W-ruin probability and the p-V@R. We discuss conditions granting the equivalence of these measures with respect to risk preference relations and the equivalence of dominance and efficiency of risk-reward criteria involving these measures. Then more specifically we applied these concepts to rigorously face the problem of finding the efficient set of de Finetti’s variable quota share proportional reinsurance.

Breast cancer in Mexican women: an epidemiological study with cervical cancer control

INTRODUCTION: In Mexico, breast cancer (BC) is one of the main causes of cancer deaths in women, with increasing incidence and mortality in recent years. Therefore, the aim of the study is identify possible risk factors related to BC. METHODS: An epidemiological study of hospital cases of BC and controls with cervical uterine cancer (CUCA) was carried out at eight third level concentration hospitals in Mexico City. The total of 353 incident cases of BC and 630 controls with CUCA were identified among women younger than 75 years who had been residents of the metropolitan area of Mexico City for at least one year. Diagnosis was confirmed histologically in both groups. Variables were analyzed according to biological and statistical plausibility criteria. Univariate, bivariate and multivariate analyses were carried out. Cases and controls were stratified according to the menopausal hormonal status (pre and post menopause). RESULTS: The factors associated with BC were: higher socioeconomic level (OR= 2.77; 95%CI = 1.77 - 4.35); early menarche (OR= 1.32; 95%CI= 0.88 - 2.00); old age at first pregnancy (>31 years: OR= 5.49; 95%CI= 2.16 - 13.98) and a family history of BC (OR= 4.76; 95% CI= 2.10 - 10.79). In contrast, an increase in the duration of the breastfeeding period was a protective factor (>25 months: OR= 0.38; 95%CI= 0.20 - 0.70). CONCLUSIONS: This study contributes to the identification of risk factors for BC described in the international literature, in the population of Mexican women. Breastfeeding appears to play an important role in protecting women from BC. Because of changes in women`s lifestyles, lactation is decreasing in Mexico, and young women tend not to breastfeed or to shorten the duration of lactation.

Risk factors for the increasing trend in low birth weight among live births born by vaginal delivery, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors for low birth weight (LBW) among live births by vaginal delivery and to determine if the disappearance of the association between LBW and socioeconomic factors was due to confounding by cesarean section. METHODS: Data were obtained from two population-based cohorts of singleton live births in Ribeirão Preto, Southeastern Brazil. The first one comprised 4,698 newborns from June 1978 to May 1979 and the second included 1,399 infants born from May to August 1994. The risks for LBW were tested in a logistic model, including the interaction of the year of survey and all independent variables under analysis. RESULTS: The incidence of LBW among vaginal deliveries increased from 7.8% in 1978--79 to 10% in 1994. The risk was higher for: female or preterm infants; newborns of non-cohabiting mothers; newborns whose mothers had fewer prenatal visits or few years of education; first-born infants; and those who had smoking mothers. The interaction of the year of survey with gestational age indicated that the risk of LBW among preterm infants fell from 17.75 to 8.71 in 15 years. The mean birth weight decreased more significantly among newborns from qualified families, who also had the highest increase in preterm birth and non-cohabitation. CONCLUSIONS: LBW among vaginal deliveries increased mainly due to a rise in the proportion of preterm births and non-cohabiting mothers. The association between cesarean section and LBW tended to cover up socioeconomic differences in the likelihood of LBW. When vaginal deliveries were analyzed independently, these socioeconomic differences come up again.

Biological monitoring of aflatoxin (AFB1) in workers of swine and poultry production

Although a great body of literature exists concerning the ingestion of food contaminated with aflatoxin, there are still few studies regarding mycotoxin inhalation in occupational settings. Since mycotoxins are relatively non-volatile, inhalation exposure is cause by inhalation of airborne fungal particulates or fungi-contaminated substrates that contain aflatoxin. We intend to know if there is occupational exposure to aflatoxin in Portuguese poultry and swine production. A total of 19 individuals (11 swine; 8 poultry) agreed and provided blood samples during the course of this investigation. Measurement of AFB1 was performed by ELISA. The samples were treated with pronase (Merck), wash in a Column C18 and purification was made with immunoaffinity columns (R.biopharma), specific for AFB1. It was applied statistical test (Mann-Whitney) to verified statistical difference in AFB1 results between the two settings. Results varied with concentrations from