891 resultados para Automatic forecasting


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El diseño y desarrollo de sistemas de suspensión para vehículos se basa cada día más en el diseño por ordenador y en herramientas de análisis por ordenador, las cuales permiten anticipar problemas y resolverlos por adelantado. El comportamiento y las características dinámicas se calculan con precisión, bajo coste, y recursos y tiempos de cálculo reducidos. Sin embargo, existe una componente iterativa en el proceso, que requiere la definición manual de diseños a través de técnicas “prueba y error”. Esta Tesis da un paso hacia el desarrollo de un entorno de simulación eficiente capaz de simular, analizar y evaluar diseños de suspensiones vehiculares, y de mejorarlos hacia la solución optima mediante la modificación de los parámetros de diseño. La modelización mediante sistemas multicuerpo se utiliza aquí para desarrollar un modelo de autocar con 18 grados de libertad, de manera detallada y eficiente. La geometría y demás características de la suspensión se ajustan a las del vehículo real, así como los demás parámetros del modelo. Para simular la dinámica vehicular, se utiliza una formulación multicuerpo moderna y eficiente basada en las ecuaciones de Maggi, a la que se ha incorporado un visor 3D. Así, se consigue simular maniobras vehiculares en tiempos inferiores al tiempo real. Una vez que la dinámica está disponible, los análisis de sensibilidad son cruciales para una optimización robusta y eficiente. Para ello, se presenta una técnica matemática que permite derivar las variables dinámicas dentro de la formulación, de forma algorítmica, general, con la precisión de la maquina, y razonablemente eficiente: la diferenciación automática. Este método propaga las derivadas con respecto a las variables de diseño a través del código informático y con poca intervención del usuario. En contraste con otros enfoques en la bibliografía, generalmente particulares y limitados, se realiza una comparación de librerías, se desarrolla una formulación híbrida directa-automática para el cálculo de sensibilidades, y se presentan varios ejemplos reales. Finalmente, se lleva a cabo la optimización de la respuesta dinámica del vehículo citado. Se analizan cuatro tipos distintos de optimización: identificación de parámetros, optimización de la maniobrabilidad, optimización del confort y optimización multi-objetivo, todos ellos aplicados al diseño del autocar. Además de resultados analíticos y gráficos, se incluyen algunas consideraciones acerca de la eficiencia. En resumen, se mejora el comportamiento dinámico de vehículos por medio de modelos multicuerpo y de técnicas de diferenciación automática y optimización avanzadas, posibilitando un ajuste automático, preciso y eficiente de los parámetros de diseño. ABSTRACT Each day, the design and development of vehicle suspension systems relies more on computer-aided design and computer-aided engineering tools, which allow anticipating the problems and solving them ahead of time. Dynamic behavior and characteristics are thus simulated accurately and inexpensively with moderate computational times and resources. There is, however, an iterative component in the process, which involves the manual definition of designs in a trialand-error manner. This Thesis takes a step towards the development of an efficient simulation framework capable of simulating, analyzing and evaluating vehicle suspension designs, and automatically improving them by varying the design parameters towards the optimal solution. The multibody systems approach is hereby used to model a three-dimensional 18-degrees-of-freedom coach in a comprehensive yet efficient way. The suspension geometry and characteristics resemble the ones from the real vehicle, as do the rest of vehicle parameters. In order to simulate vehicle dynamics, an efficient, state-of-the-art multibody formulation based on Maggi’s equations is employed, and a three-dimensional graphics viewer is developed. As a result, vehicle maneuvers can be simulated faster than real-time. Once the dynamics are ready, a sensitivity analysis is crucial for a robust optimization. To that end, a mathematical technique is introduced, which allows differentiating the dynamic variables within the multibody formulation in a general, algorithmic, accurate to machine precision, and reasonably efficient way: automatic differentiation. This method propagates the derivatives with respect to the design parameters throughout the computer code, with little user interaction. In contrast with other attempts in the literature, mostly not generalpurpose, a benchmarking of libraries is carried out, a hybrid direct-automatic differentiation approach for the computation of sensitivities is developed, and several real-life examples are analyzed. Finally, a design optimization process of the aforementioned vehicle is carried out. Four different types of dynamic response optimization are presented: parameter identification, handling optimization, ride comfort optimization and multi-objective optimization; all of which are applied to the design of the coach example. Together with analytical and visual proof of the results, efficiency considerations are made. In summary, the dynamic behavior of vehicles is improved by using the multibody systems approach, along with advanced differentiation and optimization techniques, enabling an automatic, accurate and efficient tuning of design parameters.

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A semi-automatic segmentation algorithm for abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA), and based on Active Shape Models (ASM) and texture models, is presented in this work. The texture information is provided by a set of four 3D magnetic resonance (MR) images, composed of axial slices of the abdomen, where lumen, wall and intraluminal thrombus (ILT) are visible. Due to the reduced number of images in the MRI training set, an ASM and a custom texture model based on border intensity statistics are constructed. For the same reason the shape is characterized from 35-computed tomography angiography (CTA) images set so the shape variations are better represented. For the evaluation, leave-one-out experiments have been held over the four MRI set.

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Quality assessment is a key factor for stereoscopic 3D video content as some observers are affected by visual discomfort in the eye when viewing 3D video, especially when combining positive and negative parallax with fast motion. In this paper, we propose techniques to assess objective quality related to motion and depth maps, which facilitate depth perception analysis. Subjective tests were carried out in order to understand the source of the problem. Motion is an important feature affecting 3D experience but also often the cause of visual discomfort. The automatic algorithm developed tries to quantify the impact on viewer experience when common cases of discomfort occur, such as high-motion sequences, scene changes with abrupt parallax changes, or complete absence of stereoscopy, with a goal of preventing the viewer from having a bad stereoscopic experience.

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Automatic grading of programming assignments is an important topic in academic research. It aims at improving the level of feedback given to students and optimizing the professor time. Several researches have reported the development of software tools to support this process. Then, it is helpfulto get a quickly and good sight about their key features. This paper reviews an ample set of tools forautomatic grading of programming assignments. They are divided in those most important mature tools, which have remarkable features; and those built recently, with new features. The review includes the definition and description of key features e.g. supported languages, used technology, infrastructure, etc. The two kinds of tools allow making a temporal comparative analysis. This analysis infrastructure, etc. The two kinds of tools allow making a temporal comparative analysis. This analysis shows good improvements in this research field, these include security, more language support, plagiarism detection, etc. On the other hand, the lack of a grading model for assignments is identified as an important gap in the reviewed tools. Thus, a characterization of evaluation metrics to grade programming assignments is provided as first step to get a model. Finally new paths in this research field are proposed.

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The installers and owners show a growing interest in the follow-up of the performance of their photovoltaic (PV) systems. The owners are requesting reliable sources of information to ensure that their system is functioning properly, and the installers are actively looking for efficient ways of providing them the most useful possible information from the data available. Policy makers are becoming increasingly interested in the knowledge of the real performance of PV systems and the most frequent sources of problems that they suffer to be able to target the identified challenges properly. The scientific and industrial PV community is also requiring an access to massive operational data to pursue the technological improvements further.

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The number and grade of injured neuroanatomic structures and the type of injury determine the degree of impairment after a brain injury event and the recovery options of the patient. However, the body of knowledge and clinical intervention guides are basically focused on functional disorder and they still do not take into account the location of injuries. The prognostic value of location information is not known in detail either. This paper proposes a feature-based detection algorithm, named Neuroanatomic-Based Detection Algorithm (NBDA), based on SURF (Speeded Up Robust Feature) to label anatomical brain structures on cortical and sub-cortical areas. Themain goal is to register injured neuroanatomic structures to generate a database containing patient?s structural impairment profile. This kind of information permits to establish a relation with functional disorders and the prognostic evolution during neurorehabilitation procedures.

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Automatic blood glucose classification may help specialists to provide a better interpretation of blood glucose data, downloaded directly from patients glucose meter and will contribute in the development of decision support systems for gestational diabetes. This paper presents an automatic blood glucose classifier for gestational diabetes that compares 6 different feature selection methods for two machine learning algorithms: neural networks and decision trees. Three searching algorithms, Greedy, Best First and Genetic, were combined with two different evaluators, CSF and Wrapper, for the feature selection. The study has been made with 6080 blood glucose measurements from 25 patients. Decision trees with a feature set selected with the Wrapper evaluator and the Best first search algorithm obtained the best accuracy: 95.92%.

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We demonstrate generating complete and playable card games using evolutionary algorithms. Card games are represented in a previously devised card game description language, a context-free grammar. The syntax of this language allows us to use grammar-guided genetic programming. Candidate card games are evaluated through a cascading evaluation function, a multi-step process where games with undesired properties are progressively weeded out. Three representa- tive examples of generated games are analysed. We observed that these games are reasonably balanced and have skill ele- ments, they are not yet entertaining for human players. The particular shortcomings of the examples are discussed in re- gard to the generative process to be able to generate quality games

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The aim of automatic pathological voice detection systems is to serve as tools, to medical specialists, for a more objective, less invasive and improved diagnosis of diseases. In this respect, the gold standard for those system include the usage of a optimized representation of the spectral envelope, either based on cepstral coefficients from the mel-scaled Fourier spectral envelope (Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficients) or from an all-pole estimation (Linear Prediction Coding Cepstral Coefficients) forcharacterization, and Gaussian Mixture Models for posterior classification. However, the study of recently proposed GMM-based classifiers as well as Nuisance mitigation techniques, such as those employed in speaker recognition, has not been widely considered inpathology detection labours. The present work aims at testing whether or not the employment of such speaker recognition tools might contribute to improve system performance in pathology detection systems, specifically in the automatic detection of Obstructive Sleep Apnea. The testing procedure employs an Obstructive Sleep Apnea database, in conjunction with GMM-based classifiers looking for a better performance. The results show that an improved performance might be obtained by using such approach.

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In the current uncertain context that affects both the world economy and the energy sector, with the rapid increase in the prices of oil and gas and the very unstable political situation that affects some of the largest raw materials’ producers, there is a need for developing efficient and powerful quantitative tools that allow to model and forecast fossil fuel prices, CO2 emission allowances prices as well as electricity prices. This will improve decision making for all the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling fossil fuel prices, CO2 prices and electricity prices, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider all of them together. This paper focuses on both building a multivariate model for the aforementioned prices and comparing its results with those of univariate ones, in terms of prediction accuracy (univariate and multivariate models are compared for a large span of days, all in the first 4 months in 2011) as well as extracting common features in the volatilities of the prices of all these relevant magnitudes. The common features in volatility are extracted by means of a conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic factor model which allows to solve the curse of dimensionality problem that commonly arises when estimating multivariate GARCH models. Additionally, the common volatility factors obtained are useful for improving the forecasting intervals and have a nice economical interpretation. Besides, the results obtained and methodology proposed can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.

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Electrical Protection systems and Automatic Voltage Regulators (AVR) are essential components of actual power plants. Its installation and setting is performed during the commissioning, and it needs extensive experience since any failure in this process or in the setting, may entails some risk not only for the generator of the power plant, but also for the reliability of the power grid. In this paper, a real time power plant simulation platform is presented as a tool for improving the training and learning process on electrical protections and automatic voltage regulators. The activities of the commissioning procedure which can be practiced are described, and the applicability of this tool for improving the comprehension of this important part of the power plants is discussed. A commercial AVR and a multifunction protective relay have been tested with satisfactory results.

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Automatic Control Teaching in the new degree syllabus has reduced both, its contents and its implementation course, with regard to traditional engineering careers. On the other hand, where the qualification is not considered as automatic control specialist, it is required an adapted methodology to provide the minimum contents that the student needs to assimilate, even in the case that students do not perceive these contents as the most important in their future career. In this paper we present the contents of a small automatic course taught Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering Degrees at the School of Naval Engineering of the Polytechnic University of Madrid. We have included the contents covered using the proposed methodology which is based on practical work after lectures. Firstly, the students performed exercises by hand. Secondly, they solve the exercises using informatics support tools, and finally, they validate their previous results and their knowledge in the laboratory platforms.

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We propose a new method to automatically refine a facial disparity map obtained with standard cameras and under conventional illumination conditions by using a smart combination of traditional computer vision and 3D graphics techniques. Our system inputs two stereo images acquired with standard (calibrated) cameras and uses dense disparity estimation strategies to obtain a coarse initial disparity map, and SIFT to detect and match several feature points in the subjects face. We then use these points as anchors to modify the disparity in the facial area by building a Delaunay triangulation of their convex hull and interpolating their disparity values inside each triangle. We thus obtain a refined disparity map providing a much more accurate representation of the the subjects facial features. This refined facial disparity map may be easily transformed, through the camera calibration parameters, into a depth map to be used, also automatically, to improve the facial mesh of a 3D avatar to match the subjects real human features.

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This paper describes a knowledge model for a configuration problem in the do-main of traffic control. The goal of this model is to help traffic engineers in the dynamic selection of a set of messages to be presented to drivers on variable message signals. This selection is done in a real-time context using data recorded by traffic detectors on motorways. The system follows an advanced knowledge-based solution that implements two abstract problem solving methods according to a model-based approach recently proposed in the knowledge engineering field. Finally, the paper presents a discussion about the advantages and drawbacks found for this problem as a consequence of the applied knowledge modeling ap-proach.

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Effective automatic summarization usually requires simulating human reasoning such as abstraction or relevance reasoning. In this paper we describe a solution for this type of reasoning in the particular case of surveillance of the behavior of a dynamic system using sensor data. The paper first presents the approach describing the required type of knowledge with a possible representation. This includes knowledge about the system structure, behavior, interpretation and saliency. Then, the paper shows the inference algorithm to produce a summarization tree based on the exploitation of the physical characteristics of the system. The paper illustrates how the method is used in the context of automatic generation of summaries of behavior in an application for basin surveillance in the presence of river floods.