Monotonic trend and change points in southern Brazil precipitation

Scientific evidence on climate changes at global level has gained increasing interest in the scientific community in general. The impacts of climate change as well as anthropogenic actions may cause errors in hydro-agricultural projects existent in the watershed under study. This study aimed to identify the presence or absence of trend in total annual precipitation series of the watershed of the Mirim Lagoon, state of Rio Grande do Sul-RS / Brazil / Uruguay (Brazilian side) as well as to detect the period in which they occurred. For that, it was analyzed the precipitation data belonging to 14 weather stations. To detect the existence of monotonic trend and change points, it was used the nonparametric tests of Mann-Kendall and Mann-Whitney, the "t" test of Student for two samples of unpaired data (parametric), as well as the technique of progressive mean. The Weather Station 3152014 (Pelotas) presented changes in the trend in the series of annual precipitation in the period from 1953 to 2007. The methodologies that use subdivided series were more efficient in detecting change in trend when compared with the Mann-Kendall test, which uses the complete series (from 1921 to 2007).

Color change and quality response of ‘lane late’ orange submitted to degreening process

This study aimed at evaluating the effects of ethylene on peel color and compositional changes in ‘Lane late’ orange stored under refrigerated and ambient conditions. Physiologically mature, but green-peeled, oranges were exposed to ethylene gas under room temperature and high relative humidity for 24 hours. Storage chamber was ventilated with fresh air after 12 hours to mitigate consequences derived from fruit respiration. Both nondestructive analysis, such as peel color (hue angle, chromaticity, and brightness) and weight loss, and destructive ones (soluble solids, titratable acidity, pH, soluble solids to acidity ratio, and puncture force) were performed upon harvest, after degreening, and every three days during eighteen days in storage. Experiment was carried out using an entirely randomized design with thirty replications for nondestructive and four replications for destructive analyses, in a split plot scheme. Exposure to ethylene ensured a golden yellow peel for both fruit stored under ambient and refrigerated conditions. High relative humidity, associated with low temperature prevented fruit from losing moisture. Fruit exposure to ethylene did not affect weight loss, soluble solids, titratable acidity, pH, soluble solids, acidity ratio, or puncture force.

Strategic Change Management Readiness Evaluation in Organizations

The objective of this study and paper was to find out how the strategic change management readiness in organizations can be evaluated. Based on theory and prior CMP model, the framework of strategic change management and issues related to it was constructed. Additionally a synthesis of the most important phases and interventions in strategic change process and project was created. These phases were starting point, planning, implementation and evaluation and securing phases. Qualitative approach was utilized in the empirical part of the study due to the need for in-depth information about the topics surveyed through semi-structured interview. There were 18 responders from the top management of large Finnish companies. In this study interventions, strengths and weaknesses during the various phases of strategic change projects were revealed. Additionally the interviewees’ opinion on the importance of each of the interventions in strategic change project success was asked. According to this study, the most important phases recognized through researching theoretical literature, prior CMP model and empirical information in starting point phase were analysis of current and desired state and need for change accompanied with guiding coalition formulation. In planning phase the most important interventions were project organization formulation, action plan creation, analysis of prior and current strategic change projects and organizational structure analysis. In the change project implementation phase the interventions of importance were launch, quick wins, sense of urgency creation, change resistance management and change communications. In the final evaluation and securing phase project evaluation was the most important intervention. Based on the results a tool for creating change management readiness profile was created.

Professional development among educators pursuing a B.Ed. program in special education in Tanzania : a study of motives and perceived outcomes

Implementation of different policies and plans aiming at providing education for all is a challenge in Tanzania. The need for educators and professionals with relevant knowledge and qualifications in special education is substantial. Teacher education does not equip educators with sufficient knowledge and skills in special education and professional development programs in special education are few in number. Up to 2005 no degree programs in special education at university level were available in Tanzania. The B.Ed. Special Education program offered by the Open University of Tanzania in collaboration with Åbo Akademi University in Finland was one of the efforts aimed at addressing the big national need for teachers and other professionals with degree qualifications in special education. This pilot program offered unique possibilities to study professional development in Tanzania. The research group in this study consisted of the group of students who participated in the degree program 2005-2007. The study is guided by three theoretical perspectives: individual, social and societal. The individual perspective emphasizes psychological factors as motives, motivation, achievement, self-directed behavior and personal growth. Within social perspective, professional development is viewed as situated within the social and cultural context. The third perspective, the societal, focuses on change, reforms, innovations and transformation of school systems and societies. Accordingly, professional development is viewed as an individual, social and societal phenomenon. The overall aim of the study is to explore the participants’ motives for participating in a B.Ed. Special Education program and the perceived outcomes of the program in terms of professional development. In order to achieve the objectives of the study, a case study approach was adopted. Questionnaires and semi-structured interviews were administered in three waves between January 2007 and February 2009 to the 35 educators participating in the B.Ed. Special Education program. The findings of the study reveal that the participants expressed motives which were related to job performance, knowledge, skills, academic degree and career. Also altruistic motives were expressed by the participants in terms of helping and supporting students with special needs and their communities. The perceived outcomes of the program were in line with the expressed motives. However, the results indicate that the participants also learned new skills, as interaction skills and guidance and counseling skills. Increased self-confidence was also mentioned as an outcome. The participants also got deepened understanding of disability issues. In addition, they learned strategies for creating awareness of persons with disability in the communities. Thus the findings of the study indicate positive outcomes of the program in terms of professional development. The conclusion of the study is that individual, social and societal factors interact when it comes to explaining why Tanzanian educators in special education choose to pursue a degree program in special education. The individual motives, as increased knowledge and better prospects of career development interact with the social and societal motives to help and support vulnerable student groups. The study contributes to increased understanding of the complexity of professional development and of the realities educators meet when educational reforms are implemented in a developing country.

Does hyperglycemia in pregnancy change fetal kidney growth?: a longitudinal prospective study

PURPOSE: To measure fetal renal volume in normoglycemic and hyperglycemic pregnancies. METHODS: A longitudinal prospective study was conducted and included 92 hyperglycemic and 339 normoglycemic pregnant women attended at the prenatal service of a hospital from Rio de Janeiro State. Ultrasound examinations were performed to estimate gestational age at baseline and the kidney volume was estimated using the prolate ellipsoid volume equation. RESULTS: Fetal kidney volume growth between normoglycemic and hyperglycemic pregnancies are significantly different. The fetal kidney volume growth in pregnancy is positively correlated with gestational age explained by these predictor equations, by group: normal renal volume = exp (6.186+0.09×gestational week); hyperglycemic renal volume = exp (6.978+0.071×gestational week) and an excessive growth pattern for hyperglycemic pregnancies may be established according to gestational age. CONCLUSION: This is important for early detection of abnormalities in pregnancy, particularly in diabetic mothers.

Communication as a trust builder in change management

Organizations are today characterized by uncertainty, fast changes and inability to predict the future. Both trust and communication are vital when changes are implemented in an organization. The purpose of this study was to examine how a change process can be enhanced by the means of communication and trust. This study was cheated by using the existing literature related to the subject.

Knowledge, processes and relationships in organizational change: Understanding how to facilitate management of intellectual capital in diverse organization structures and cultures.

This study examined relationships of organizational dependencies, change management and developed intellectual knowledge resources, in different intellectual capital based development programs on ICT-sector. Study was carried out in a research context, where high degree of external organizational contingencies existed and lots of changes in several development programs had taken place in the last years. From a scientific perspective the main contribution was that evidence between relationships of organizational dependencies, change model portfolio and developed knowledge resources could be suggested. From managerial perspective the primary implication was that in situations where sustainable competitive advantage is pursued by means of increasing knowledge based productivity of labor, firms should seek to pursue organizational settings where external dependencies have minimal amount of effect.

An experimental/numerical study of the turbulent boundary layer development along a surface with a sudden change in roughness

A theory for the description of turbulent boundary layer flows over surfaces with a sudden change in roughness is considered. The theory resorts to the concept of displacement in origin to specify a wall function boundary condition for a kappa-epsilon model. An approximate algebraic expression for the displacement in origin is obtained from the experimental data by using the chart method of Perry and Joubert(J.F.M., vol. 17, pp. 193-122, 1963). This expression is subsequently included in the near wall logarithmic velocity profile, which is then adopted as a boundary condition for a kappa-epsilon modelling of the external flow. The results are compared with the lower atmospheric observations made by Bradley(Q. J. Roy. Meteo. Soc., vol. 94, pp. 361-379, 1968) as well as with velocity profiles extracted from a set of wind tunnel experiments carried out by Avelino et al.( 7th ENCIT, 1998). The measurements are found to be in good agreement with the theoretical computations. The skin-friction coefficient was calculated according to the chart method of Perry and Joubert(J.F.M., vol. 17, pp. 193-122, 1963) and to a balance of the integral momentum equation. In particular, the growth of the internal boundary layer thickness obtained from the numerical simulation is compared with predictions of the experimental data calculated by two methods, the "knee" point method and the "merge" point method.

Building Next Generation Consortium Services – part 1: Background for Change

Kristiina Hormia-Poutasen esitys CBUC-konferenssissa Barcelonassa 12.4.2013.

Accounting for competition, governance and accountability during institutional change in not-for-profit and public sector organisations

Purpose The aim of this thesis1 is to analyse theoretically how institutionalisation of competitive tendering2, governance and budgetary policies cannot be taken for granted to lead to accountability among institutional actors3. The nature of an institutionalised management accounting policy, its relevance as a source of power in organisational decision making, and in negotiating inter-organisational relationships, are also analysed. Practical motivation The practical motivation of the thesis is to show how practitioners and policy makers can institutionalise changes which improve the power of management accounting and control systems4 as a mechanism of accountability among institutional actors and in negotiating relationships with other organisations. Theoretical motivation and conceptual approach The theoretical motivation of the thesis is to extend the institutional framework of management accounting change proposed by Burns and Scapens (2000) by using the theories of critical realism, communicative action, negotiated order and the framework of circuits of power. The Burns and Scapens framework needs further theorisation to analyse the relationship between the institutionalisation of management accounting and accountability; and the relevance of management accounting information in negotiating in inter-organisational relationships. Methodology and field studies Field research took place in public and not-for-profit health care organisations and a municipality in Finland from 2008 to 2013. Data were gathered by document analysis, interviews, participation in meetings and observations. Findings The findings are explained in four different essays that show that institutionalisation of competitive tendering, governance and budgetary policies cannot be taken for granted to lead to accountability among institutional actors. The ways by which institutional actors think and act can be influenced by other institutional mechanisms, such as inter-organisational circuits of power and intraorganisational governance policies, independent of the institutional change process. The relevance of institutionalised management accounting policies in negotiating relationships between two or more organisations depends on processes and contexts through which institutional actors use management accounting information as a tool of communication, mutual understanding and power. Research limitations / implications The theoretical framework used can be applied validly in other studies. The empirical findings cannot be generalised directly to other organisations than the organisations analysed. Practical implications Competitive tendering and budgetary policies can be institutionalised to shape actions of institutional actors within an organisation. To lead to accountability, practitioners and policy makers should implement governance policies that increase the use of management accounting information in institutional actors’ thinking, actions and responsibility for their actions. To reach a negotiated order between organisations, institutionalised management accounting policies should be used as one of the tools of communication aiming to reach mutual agreement among institutional actors.

GIS assessing traditional and modern agricultural land use/land cover change. A case study 1959-2005: Rekijoki, Somero, SW-Finland

Finland’s rural landscape has gone through remarkable changes from the 1950’s, due to agricultural developments. Changed farming practices have influenced especially traditional landscape management, and modifications in the arable land structure and grasslands transitions are notable. The review of the previous studies reveal the importance of the rural landscape composition and structure to species and landscape diversity, whereas including the relevance in presence of the open ditches, size of the field and meadow patches, topology of the natural and agricultural landscape. This land-change study includes applying remote sensed data from two time series and empirical geospatial analysis in Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The aims of this retrospective research is to detect agricultural landscape use and land cover change (LULCC) dynamics and discuss the consequences of agricultural intensification to landscape structure covering from the aspects of landscape ecology. Measurements of LULC are derived directly from pre-processed aerial images by a variety of analytical procedures, including statistical methods and image interpretation. The methodological challenges are confronted in the process of landscape classification and combining change detection approaches with landscape indices. Particular importance is paid on detecting agricultural landscape features at a small scale, demanding comprehensive understanding of such agroecosystems. Topological properties of the classified arable land and valley are determined in order to provide insight and emphasize the aspect the field edges in the agricultural landscape as important habitat. Change detection dynamics are presented with change matrix and additional calculations of gain, loss, swap, net change, change rate and tendencies are made. Transition’s possibility is computed following Markov’s probability model and presented with matrix, as well. Thesis’s spatial aspect is revealed with illustrative maps providing knowledge of location of the classified landscape categories and location of the dynamics of the changes occurred. It was assured that in Rekijoki valley’s landscape, remarkable changes in landscape has occurred. Landscape diversity has been strongly influenced by modern agricultural landscape change, as NP of open ditches has decreased and the MPS of the arable plot has decreased. Overall change in the diversity of the landscape is determined with the decrease of SHDI. Valley landscape considered as traditional land use area has experienced major transitional changes, as meadows class has lost almost one third of the area due to afforestation. Also, remarkable transitions have occurred from forest to meadow and arable land to built area. Boundaries measurement between modern and traditional landscape has indicated noticeable proportional increase in arable land-forest edge type and decrease in arable land-meadow edge type. Probability calculations predict higher future changes for traditional landscape, but also for arable land turning into built area.

Forest cover and its change in Unguja Island, Zanzibar

Tropical forests are sources of many ecosystem services, but these forests are vanishing rapidly. The situation is severe in Sub-Saharan Africa and especially in Tanzania. The causes of change are multidimensional and strongly interdependent, and only understanding them comprehensively helps to change the ongoing unsustainable trends of forest decline. Ongoing forest changes, their spatiality and connection to humans and environment can be studied with the methods of Land Change Science. The knowledge produced with these methods helps to make arguments about the actors, actions and causes that are behind the forest decline. In this study of Unguja Island in Zanzibar the focus is in the current forest cover and its changes between 1996 and 2009. The cover and changes are measured with often used remote sensing methods of automated land cover classification and post-classification comparison from medium resolution satellite images. Kernel Density Estimation is used to determine the clusters of change, sub-area –analysis provides information about the differences between regions, while distance and regression analyses connect changes to environmental factors. These analyses do not only explain the happened changes, but also allow building quantitative and spatial future scenarios. Similar study has not been made for Unguja and therefore it provides new information, which is beneficial for the whole society. The results show that 572 km2 of Unguja is still forested, but 0,82–1,19% of these forests are disappearing annually. Besides deforestation also vertical degradation and spatial changes are significant problems. Deforestation is most severe in the communal indigenous forests, but also agroforests are decreasing. Spatially deforestation concentrates to the areas close to the coastline, population and Zanzibar Town. Biophysical factors on the other hand do not seem to influence the ongoing deforestation process. If the current trend continues there should be approximately 485 km2 of forests remaining in 2025. Solutions to these deforestation problems should be looked from sustainable land use management, surveying and protection of the forests in risk areas and spatially targeted self-sustainable tree planting schemes.