Bringing game theory to hypothesis testing: Establishing finite sample bounds on inference

Small sample properties are of fundamental interest when only limited data is avail-able. Exact inference is limited by constraints imposed by speci.c nonrandomizedtests and of course also by lack of more data. These e¤ects can be separated as we propose to evaluate a test by comparing its type II error to the minimal type II error among all tests for the given sample. Game theory is used to establish this minimal type II error, the associated randomized test is characterized as part of a Nash equilibrium of a .ctitious game against nature.We use this method to investigate sequential tests for the di¤erence between twomeans when outcomes are constrained to belong to a given bounded set. Tests ofinequality and of noninferiority are included. We .nd that inference in terms oftype II error based on a balanced sample cannot be improved by sequential sampling or even by observing counter factual evidence providing there is a reasonable gap between the hypotheses.

Biogeographic analysis of Crocidiinae (Diptera, Bombyliidae): finding congruence among morphological, molecular, fossil and paleogeographical data

Biogeographic studies dealing with Bombyliidae are rare in the literature and no information is available on its origin and early diversification. In this study, we found evidence from molecular phylogeny and from fossil record supporting a Middle Jurassic origin of the Bombylioidea, taken as a starting point to discuss the biogeography and diversification of Crocidiinae. Based on a previously published phylogenetic hypothesis, we performed a Brooks Parsimony Analysis (BPA) to discuss the biogeographical history of Crocidiinae lineages. This subfamily is mostly distributed over arid areas of the early components of the Gondwanaland: Chile and southern Africa, but also in southwestern Palaearctic and southwestern Nearctic. The vicariant events affecting the Crocidiinae biogeography at the generic level seems to be related to the sequential separation of a Laurasian clade from a Gondwanan clade followed by the splitting of the latter into smaller components. This also leads to a hypothesis of origin of the Crocidiinae in the Middle Jurassic, the same period in which other bombyliid lineages are supposed to have arisen and irradiated.

Unravelling the enigmatic origin of calcitic nanofibres in soils and caves: purely physicochemical or biogenic processes?

Calcitic nanofibres are ubiquitous habits of sec- ondary calcium carbonate (CaCO3 ) accumulations observed in calcareous vadose environments. Despite their widespread occurrence, the origin of these nanofeatures remains enig- matic. Three possible mechanisms fuel the debate: (i) purely physicochemical processes, (ii) mineralization of rod-shaped bacteria, and (iii) crystal precipitation on organic templates. Nanofibres can be either mineral (calcitic) or organic in na- ture. They are very often observed in association with needle fibre calcite (NFC), another typical secondary CaCO3 habit in terrestrial environments. This association has contributed to some confusion between both habits, however they are truly two distinct calcitic features and their recurrent asso- ciation is likely to be an important fact to help understanding the origin of nanofibres. In this paper the different hypotheses that currently exist to explain the origin of calcitic nanofibres are critically reviewed. In addition to this, a new hypothe- sis for the origin of nanofibres is proposed based on the fact that current knowledge attributes a fungal origin to NFC. As this feature and nanofibres are recurrently observed together, a possible fungal origin for nanofibres which are associated with NFC is investigated. Sequential enzymatic digestion of the fungal cell wall of selected fungal species demonstrates that the fungal cell wall can be a source of organic nanofibres. The obtained organic nanofibres show a striking morpho- logical resemblance when compared to their natural coun- terparts, emphasizing a fungal origin for part of the organic nanofibres observed in association with NFC. It is further hy- pothesized that these organic nanofibres may act as templates for calcite nucleation in a biologically influenced mineraliza- tion process, generating calcitic nanofibres. This highlights the possible involvement of fungi in CaCO3 biomineraliza- tion processes, a role still poorly documented. Moreover, on a global scale, the organomineralization of organic nanofi- bres into calcitic nanofibres might be an overlooked process deserving more attention to specify its impact on the biogeo- chemical cycles of both Ca and C.

Costly search and design

Firms compete by choosing both a price and a design from a family of designs thatcan be represented as demand rotations. Consumers engage in costly sequential searchamong firms. Each time a consumer pays a search cost he observes a new offering. Anoffering consists of a price quote and a new good, where goods might vary in the extentto which they are good matches for the consumer. In equilibrium, only two design-styles arise: either the most niche where consumers are likely to either love or loathethe product, or the broadest where consumers are likely to have similar valuations. Inequilibrium, different firms may simultaneously offer both design-styles. We performcomparative statics on the equilibrium and show that a fall in search costs can lead tohigher industry prices and profits and lower consumer surplus. Our analysis is relatedto discussions of how the internet has led to the prevalence of niche goods and the"long tail" phenomenon.

Bilateral Uveal Pigmented Alterations With Remarkable Evolution: Long Term Follow-Up in a Case of Possible Bilateral Diffuse Uveal Melanocytic Proliferation

Purpose: to describe a case of probable bilateral diffuse uveal melanocytic proliferation (BDUMP) with scleral involvement, free from systemic malignancies and cataract. Methods: fifty months of follow up with recurrent complete ophthalmological examinations, including fundus photography, fluorescein/indocyanine green angiography (FA) and optical coherence tomography (OCT). Investigations also included an electroretinography (ERG) and histological examination of scleral biopsy. Extraocular malignancies were repeatedly searched. Results: the patient was a 61 year-old Italian man with chronic hepatitis type C. At first visit his best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) was 20/32 in OS and 20/25 in OD. Funduscopy showed multiple patch-shaped pigmented alterations involving macular region and mid retinal periphery. FA showed corresponding areas of late-phase hyperfluorescent pinpoints (figure 1a, OS) and intemediate-phase hypocyanescence (figure 1b, OS), with subtle serous neurosensory retinal detachment confirmed by OCT. Photopic and scotopic ERG tested normal. Systemic prednisone was administered for one month without any improvement. After ten months round pigmentary lesions appeared also in superior scleral surface of both eyes. Biopsy allowed to disclose slightly pigmented spindle cells. BCVA worsened for further 10 months, with enlargement of FA alteration areas but lenses still clear. After 30 months spontaneous coalescence and atrophy of retinal lesions started, paralleled by progressive visual recovery. At the end of our follow up BCVA was 20/25 in OU while scleral pigmentary lesions remained unchanged. Conclusions: we report the case of a patient with main features of BDUMP and some unusual findings. Although not all classical diagnostic criteria were fulfilled, the presence of scleral pigmented lesions and spontaneous visual recovery may enlarge clinical spectrum of the disease.

Auctions of licences and market structure

This paper studies sequential auctions of licences to operate in amarket where those firms that obtain at least one licence then engage ina symmetric market game. I employ a new refinement of Nash equilibrium,the concept of {\sl Markovian recursively undominated equilibrium}.The unique solution satisfies the following properties: (i) when severalfirms own licences before the auction (incumbents), new entrants buylicences in each stage, and (ii) when there is no more than one incumbent,either the single firm preempts entry altogether or entry occurs inevery stage, depending on the parameter configuration.

Endogenous information structures

Many models in the economics literature deal with strategic situations withprivately informed agents. In those models the information structure isassumed to be exogenous and common knowledge. We consider whether suchmodels, and the results they produce, are robust with respect theendogenization of the information structure. The results depend on whetherinformation acquisition is secret or private, and on whether the strategicsituation involves simultaneous or sequential moves. In particular we findthat only when information is secretly acquired and moves are simultaneous,the results are fully robust. When information is acquired secretly butmoves are sequential additional equilibria may appear. Instead, privateinformation acquisition may make the equilibrium set smaller.

Olson vs. Coase: Coalitional worth in conflict

We analyze a model of conflict with endogenous choice of effort, wheresubsets of the contenders may force the resolution to be sequential:First the alliance fights it out with the rest and in case they win later they fight it out among themselves. For three-player games, wefind that it will not be in the interest of any two of them to form analliance. We obtain this result under two different scenarios:equidistant preferences with varying relative strengths, and vicinityof preferences with equal distribution of power. We conclude that thecommonly made assumption of super-additive coalitional worth is suspect.

Decision making in uncertain and changing environments

We consider an agent who has to repeatedly make choices in an uncertainand changing environment, who has full information of the past, who discountsfuture payoffs, but who has no prior. We provide a learning algorithm thatperforms almost as well as the best of a given finite number of experts orbenchmark strategies and does so at any point in time, provided the agentis sufficiently patient. The key is to find the appropriate degree of forgettingdistant past. Standard learning algorithms that treat recent and distant pastequally do not have the sequential epsilon optimality property.

Nominal debt as a burden on monetary policy

We study the effects of nominal debt on the optimal sequential choice of monetary policy. When the stock of debt is nominal, the incentive to generate unanticipated inflation increases the cost of the outstanding debt even if no unanticipated inflation episodes occur in equilibrium. Without full commitment, the optimal sequential policy is to deplete the outstanding stock of debt progressively until these extra costs disappear. Nominal debt is therefore a burden on monetary policy, not only because it must be serviced, but also because it creates a time inconsistency problem that distorts interest rates. The introduction of alternative forms of taxation may lessen this burden, if there is enough commtiment to fiscal policy. If there is full commitment to an optimal fiscal policy, then the resulting monetary policy is the Friedman rule of zero nominal interest rates.

Home care: a safe and attractive alternative to inpatient administration of intensive chemotherapies.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate feasibility, safety, perception, and costs of home care for the administration of intensive chemotherapies. METHODS: Patients receiving sequential chemotherapy in an inpatient setting, living within 30 km of the hospital, and having a relative to care for them were offered home care treatment. Chemotherapy was administered by a portable, programmable pump via an implantable catheter. The main endpoints were safety, patient's quality of life [Functional Living Index-Cancer (FLIC)], satisfaction of patients and relatives, and costs. RESULTS: Two hundred days of home care were analysed, representing a total of 46 treatment cycles of intensive chemotherapy in 17 patients. Two cycles were complicated by technical problems that required hospitalisation for a total of 5 days. Three major medical complications (heart failure, angina pectoris, and major allergic reaction) could be managed at home. Grades 1 and 2 nausea and vomiting occurring in 36% of patients could be treated at home. FLIC scores remained constant throughout the study. All patients rated home care as very satisfactory or satisfactory. Patient benefits of home care included increased comfort and freedom. Relatives acknowledged better tolerance and less asthenia of the patient. Home care resulted in a 53% cost benefit compared to hospital treatment (420 ± 120/day vs. 896 ± 165/day). CONCLUSION: Administration of intensive chemotherapy regimens at home was feasible and safe. Quality of life was not affected; satisfaction of patients and relatives was very high. A psychosocial benefit was observed for patients and relatives. Furthermore, a cost-benefit of home care compared to hospital treatment was demonstrated.

Maxillary advancement and transpalatal expansion using internal distraction in a patient with cleft lip and palate.

Correction of sagittal and transverse maxillary discrepancies in patients with cleft lip or palate remains a challenge for craniofacial surgeons. Distraction osteogenesis has revolutionized the conceptualization and approach to the craniofacial malformations and has become a reliable and irreplaceable part of the surgical armamentarium. We are reporting a case of sequential maxillary advancement and transpalatal expansion using internal distraction in a patient with unilateral cleft lip and palate presenting with severe maxillary sagittal and transverse deficiencies.

Bortezomib(Velcade (R))-Thalidomide-Dexamethasone (VTD) Is Superior to Thalidomide-Dexamethasone (TD) In Patients with Multiple Myeloma (MM) Progressing or Relapsing After Autologous Transplantation.

Introduction: The Thalidomide-Dexamethasone (TD) regimen has provided encouraging results in relapsed MM. To improve results, bortezomib (Velcade) has been added to the combination in previous phase II studies, the so called VTD regimen. In January 2006, the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (EBMT) and the Intergroupe Francophone du Myélome (IFM) initiated a prospective, randomized, parallel-group, open-label phase III, multicenter study, comparing VTD (arm A) with TD (arm B) for MM patients progressing or relapsing after autologous transplantation. Patients and Methods: Inclusion criteria: patients in first progression or relapse after at least one autologous transplantation, including those who had received bortezomib or thalidomide before transplant. Exclusion criteria: subjects with neuropathy above grade 1 or non secretory MM. Primary study end point was time to progression (TTP). Secondary end points included safety, response rate, progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Treatment was scheduled as follows: bortezomib 1.3 mg/m2 was given as an i.v bolus on Days 1, 4, 8 and 11 followed by a 10-Day rest period (days 12 to 21) for 8 cycles (6 months) and then on Days 1, 8, 15, 22 followed by a 20-Day rest period (days 23 to 42) for 4 cycles (6 months). In both arms, thalidomide was scheduled at 200 mg/Day orally for one year and dexamethasone 40 mg/Day orally four days every three weeks for one year. Patients reaching remission could proceed to a new stem cell harvest. However, transplantation, either autologous or allogeneic, could only be performed in patients who completed the planned one year treatment period. Response was assessed by EBMT criteria, with additional category of near complete remission (nCR). Adverse events were graded by the NCI-CTCAE, Version 3.0.The trial was based on a group sequential design, with 4 planned interim analyses and one final analysis that allowed stopping for efficacy as well as futility. The overall alpha and power were set equal to 0.025 and 0.90 respectively. The test for decision making was based on the comparison in terms of the ratio of the cause-specific hazards of relapse/progression, estimated in a Cox model stratified on the number of previous autologous transplantations. Relapse/progression cumulative incidence was estimated using the proper nonparametric estimator, the comparison was done by the Gray test. PFS and OS probabilities were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier curves, the comparison was performed by the Log-Rank test. An interim safety analysis was performed when the first hundred patients had been included. The safety committee recommended to continue the trial. Results: As of 1st July 2010, 269 patients had been enrolled in the study, 139 in France (IFM 2005-04 study), 21 in Italy, 38 in Germany, 19 in Switzerland (a SAKK study), 23 in Belgium, 8 in Austria, 8 in the Czech republic, 11 in Hungary, 1 in the UK and 1 in Israel. One hundred and sixty nine patients were males and 100 females; the median age was 61 yrs (range 29-76). One hundred and thirty six patients were randomized to receive VTD and 133 to receive TD. The current analysis is based on 246 patients (124 in arm A, 122 in arm B) included in the second interim analysis, carried out when 134 events were observed. Following this analysis, the trial was stopped because of significant superiority of VTD over TD. The remaining patients were too premature to contribute to the analysis. The number of previous autologous transplants was one in 63 vs 60 and two or more in 61 vs 62 patients in arm A vs B respectively. The median follow-up was 25 months. The median TTP was 20 months vs 15 months respectively in arm A and B, with cumulative incidence of relapse/progression at 2 years equal to 52% (95% CI: 42%-64%) vs 70% (95% CI: 61%-81%) (p=0.0004, Gray test). The same superiority of arm A was also observed when stratifying on the number of previous autologous transplantations. At 2 years, PFS was 39% (95% CI: 30%-51%) vs 23% (95% CI: 16%-34%) (A vs B, p=0.0006, Log-Rank test). OS in the first two years was comparable in the two groups. Conclusion: VTD resulted in significantly longer TTP and PFS in patients relapsing after ASCT. Analysis of response and safety data are on going and results will be presented at the meeting. Protocol EU-DRACT number: 2005-001628-35.

Thermogenic and metabolic effects of dopamine in healthy men.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the thermogenic response of dopamine at three different infusion rates and to analyze its effects on various biochemical variables. DESIGN: Randomized sequential experimental treatment bracketed by control periods. PATIENTS: Eight young healthy male volunteers with normal body weight (51 to 89 kg). INTERVENTIONS: Three experimental periods during which dopamine was administered iv in a randomized order at rates of 2.5, 5, or 10 micrograms/kg.min with one preinfusion baseline and two recovery periods in between. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A significant (p less than .01) increase in resting energy expenditure was observed in response to the two highest dopamine infusion rates (5 and 10 micrograms/kg.min), corresponding to 6% and 15% median increases, respectively, as compared with preinfusion values. At the lowest dopamine infusion rate, no variation in resting energy expenditure was observed. Dopamine induced a significant (p less than .01) increase in hyperglycemia at all three infusion rates, and, at the highest infusion rate, dopamine induced a significant (p less than .05) increase of plasma free fatty acid concentrations. Insulin plasma concentrations were significantly (p less than .05 to p less than 0.1) increased at the three dopamine infusion rates. CONCLUSIONS: Dopamine infusion produces a dose-dependent thermogenic effect and induces various metabolic actions in man.

Differential ubiquitylation of the mineralocorticoid receptor is regulated by phosphorylation.

Aldosterone stimulation of the mineralocorticoid receptor (MR) is involved in numerous physiological responses, including Na+ homeostasis, blood pressure control, and heart failure. Aldosterone binding to MR promotes different post-translational modifications that regulate MR nuclear translocation, gene expression, and finally receptor degradation. Here, we show that aldosterone stimulates rapid phosphorylation of MR via ERK1/2 in a dose-dependent manner (from 0.1 to 10 nM) in renal epithelial cells. This phosphorylation induces an increase of MR apparent molecular weight, with a maximal upward shift of 30 kDa. Strikingly, these modifications are critical for the regulation of the MR ubiquitylation state. Indeed, we find that MR is monoubiquitylated in its basal state, and this status is sustained by the tumor suppressor gene 101 (Tsg101). Phosphorylation leads to disruption of MR/Tsg101 association and monoubiquitin removal. These events prompt polyubiquitin-dependent destabilization of MR and degradation. Preventing MR phosphorylation by ERK1/2 inhibition or mutation of target serines affects the sequential mechanisms of MR ubiquitylation and inhibits the aldosterone-mediated degradation. Our data provide a novel model of negative feedback of aldosterone signaling, involving sequential phosphorylation, monoubiquitin removal and subsequent polyubiquitylation/degradation of MR.