A medium-scale open economy model of Australia

We estimate an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE)model of Australia with a number of shocks, frictions and rigidities, matching alarge number of observable time series. We find that both foreign and domesticshocks are important drivers of the Australian business cycle.We also find that theinitial impact on inflation of an increase in demand for Australian commoditiesis negative, due to an improvement in the real exchange rate, though there is apersistent positive effect on inflation that dominates at longer horizons.

Small-scale area effect on species richness and nesting occupancy of cavity-nesting bees and wasps

Small-scale area effect on species richness and nesting occupancy of cavity-nesting bees and wasps. The research was conducted in an urban forest remnant in southeast Brazil. We tested the predictions of the following hypotheses: (1) larger areas present higher species richness of bees and wasps, (2) solitary bees and wasps occupy more nests in larger areas, (3) rare species occupy more nests in smaller areas. We sampled Aculeate bees and wasps using trap nests from February to November 2004. We placed trap nests in sampling units (SU) with different size (25, 100 and 400 m²) located in 6 ha of secondary mesophytic forest. One hundred and thirty-seven trap nests were occupied by seven species of bees and four species of wasps. We found an increase in wasp, but not bee species richness following increase in SU size. Hymenoptera richness (i.e. bees plus wasps) was also greater in larger SU. Both the number and density of occupied nests increased with SU size. The wasp Trypoxylon lactitarse responded significantly to area size, larger SU having more occupied nests. The same pattern was exhibited by the wasp Auplopus militaris, the Megachile bee species, and the bee Anthodioctes megachiloides. Only Trypoxylon sp. was not affected by SU size. Our results show that cavity-nesting bee and wasps respond differently to the area effects. Such findings must be complemented by information on the frequency and dynamics of area colonization and nest occupancy by species of solitary Hymenoptera.

French version validation of the psychotic symptom rating scales (PSYRATS) for outpatients with persistent psychotic symptoms.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Most scales that assess the presence and severity of psychotic symptoms often measure a broad range of experiences and behaviours, something that restricts the detailed measurement of specific symptoms such as delusions or hallucinations. The Psychotic Symptom Rating Scales (PSYRATS) is a clinical assessment tool that focuses on the detailed measurement of these core symptoms. The goal of this study was to examine the psychometric properties of the French version of the PSYRATS. METHODS: A sample of 103 outpatients suffering from schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorders and presenting persistent psychotic symptoms over the previous three months was assessed using the PSYRATS. Seventy-five sample participants were also assessed with the Positive And Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS). RESULTS: ICCs were superior to .90 for all items of the PSYRATS. Factor analysis replicated the factorial structure of the original version of the delusions scale. Similar to previous replications, the factor structure of the hallucinations scale was partially replicated. Convergent validity indicated that some specific PSYRATS items do not correlate with the PANSS delusions or hallucinations. The distress items of the PSYRATS are negatively correlated with the grandiosity scale of the PANSS. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study are limited by the relatively small sample size as well as the selection of participants with persistent symptoms. The French version of the PSYRATS partially replicates previously published results. Differences in factor structure of the hallucinations scale might be explained by greater variability of its elements. The future development of the scale should take into account the presence of grandiosity in order to better capture details of the psychotic experience.

Revealed preference and indifferent selection

It is shown that preferences can be constructed from observed choice behavior in a way that is robust to indifferent selection (i.e., the agent is indifferent between two alternatives but, nevertheless, is only observed selecting one of them). More precisely, a suggestion by Savage (1954) to reveal indifferent selection by considering small monetary perturbations of alternatives is formalized and generalized to a purely topological framework: references over an arbitrary topological space can be uniquely derived from observed behavior under the assumptions that they are continuous and nonsatiated and that a strictly preferred alternative is always chosen, and indifferent selection is then characterized by discontinuity in choice behavior. Two particular cases are then analyzed: monotonic preferences over a partially ordered set, and preferences representable by a continuous pseudo-utility function.

Comparison of human chromosome 21 conserved nongenic sequences (CNGs) with the mouse and dog genomes shows that their selective constraint is independent of their genic environment.

The analysis of conservation between the human and mouse genomes resulted in the identification of a large number of conserved nongenic sequences (CNGs). The functional significance of this nongenic conservation remains unknown, however. The availability of the sequence of a third mammalian genome, the dog, allows for a large-scale analysis of evolutionary attributes of CNGs in mammals. We have aligned 1638 previously identified CNGs and 976 conserved exons (CODs) from human chromosome 21 (Hsa21) with their orthologous sequences in mouse and dog. Attributes of selective constraint, such as sequence conservation, clustering, and direction of substitutions were compared between CNGs and CODs, showing a clear distinction between the two classes. We subsequently performed a chromosome-wide analysis of CNGs by correlating selective constraint metrics with their position on the chromosome and relative to their distance from genes. We found that CNGs appear to be randomly arranged in intergenic regions, with no bias to be closer or farther from genes. Moreover, conservation and clustering of substitutions of CNGs appear to be completely independent of their distance from genes. These results suggest that the majority of CNGs are not typical of previously described regulatory elements in terms of their location. We propose models for a global role of CNGs in genome function and regulation, through long-distance cis or trans chromosomal interactions.

Local selection rules that can determine specific pathways of DNA unknotting by type II DNA topoisomerases.

We performed numerical simulations of DNA chains to understand how local geometry of juxtaposed segments in knotted DNA molecules can guide type II DNA topoisomerases to perform very efficient relaxation of DNA knots. We investigated how the various parameters defining the geometry of inter-segmental juxtapositions at sites of inter-segmental passage reactions mediated by type II DNA topoisomerases can affect the topological consequences of these reactions. We confirmed the hypothesis that by recognizing specific geometry of juxtaposed DNA segments in knotted DNA molecules, type II DNA topoisomerases can maintain the steady-state knotting level below the topological equilibrium. In addition, we revealed that a preference for a particular geometry of juxtaposed segments as sites of strand-passage reaction enables type II DNA topoisomerases to select the most efficient pathway of relaxation of complex DNA knots. The analysis of the best selection criteria for efficient relaxation of complex knots revealed that local structures in random configurations of a given knot type statistically behave as analogous local structures in ideal geometric configurations of the corresponding knot type.

A data-dependent skeleton estimate and a scale-sensitive dimension for classification

The classical binary classification problem is investigatedwhen it is known in advance that the posterior probability function(or regression function) belongs to some class of functions. We introduceand analyze a method which effectively exploits this knowledge. The methodis based on minimizing the empirical risk over a carefully selected``skeleton'' of the class of regression functions. The skeleton is acovering of the class based on a data--dependent metric, especiallyfitted for classification. A new scale--sensitive dimension isintroduced which is more useful for the studied classification problemthan other, previously defined, dimension measures. This fact isdemonstrated by performance bounds for the skeleton estimate in termsof the new dimension.

Local-scale spatial variation in diversity of social wasps in an Amazonian rain forest in Caxiuanã, Pará, Brazil (Hymenoptera, Vespidae, Polistinae)

Polistine wasps are important in Neotropical ecosystems due to their ubiquity and diversity. Inventories have not adequately considered spatial attributes of collected specimens. Spatial data on biodiversity are important for study and mitigation of anthropogenic impacts over natural ecosystems and for protecting species. We described and analyzed local-scale spatial patterns of collecting records of wasp species, as well as spatial variation of diversity descriptors in a 2500-hectare area of an Amazon forest in Brazil. Rare species comprised the largest fraction of the fauna. Close range spatial effects were detected for most of the more common species, with clustering of presence-data at short distances. Larger spatial lag effects could also be identified in some species, constituting probably cases of exogenous autocorrelation and candidates for explanations based on environmental factors. In a few cases, significant or near significant correlations were found between five species (of Agelaia, Angiopolybia, and Mischocyttarus) and three studied environmental variables: distance to nearest stream, terrain altitude, and the type of forest canopy. However, association between these factors and biodiversity variables were generally low. When used as predictors of polistine richness in a linear multiple regression, only the coefficient for the forest canopy variable resulted significant. Some level of prediction of wasp diversity variables can be attained based on environmental variables, especially vegetation structure. Large-scale landscape and regional studies should be scheduled to address this issue.

Scale-dependent adaptive evolution and morphological convergence to climatic niche in Californian eriogonoids (Polygonaceae)

Aim Macroevolutionary patterns and processes change substantially depending on levels of taxonomic and ecological organization, and the resolution of environmental and spatial variability. In comparative methods, the resolution of environmental and spatial variability often defines the number of selective regimes used to test whether phenotypic characteristics are adaptively correlated with the environment. Here, we examine how investigator choice of the number of selective regimes, determined by varying the resolution of among-species variability in the species climatic niche (hereafter called ecological scale'), influences trait morphological diversification among Eriogonoideae species. We assess whether adaptive or neutral processes drive the evolution of several morphological traits in these species. Location South-western North America. Methods We applied a phylogenetic framework of three evolutionary models to four morphological traits and the climatic niches of Eriogonoideae (in the buckwheat family, Polygonaceae). We tested whether morphological traits evolve in relation to climate by adaptive or neutral process, and whether the resulting patterns of morphological variability are conserved or convergent across the clade. We inspected adaptive models of evolution under different levels of resolution of among-species variability of the climatic niche. Results We show that morphological traits and climate niches of Eriogonoideae species are not phylogenetically conserved. Further, adaptive evolution of phenotypic traits is specific to climatic niche occupancy across this clade. Finally, the likely evolutionary process and the level of detectable niche conservatism change depending on the resolution of environmental variability of the climatic niche. Main conclusions Our study demonstrates the need to consider both the resolution of environmental variability and alternative evolutionary models to understand the morphological diversification that accompanies divergent adaptive evolution of lineages to climatic conditions.

Modeling complex wells with the multi-scale finite-volume method

In this paper, an extension of the multi-scale finite-volume (MSFV) method is devised, which allows to Simulate flow and transport in reservoirs with complex well configurations. The new framework fits nicely into the data Structure of the original MSFV method,and has the important property that large patches covering the whole well are not required. For each well. an additional degree of freedom is introduced. While the treatment of pressure-constraint wells is trivial (the well-bore reference pressure is explicitly specified), additional equations have to be solved to obtain the unknown well-bore pressure of rate-constraint wells. Numerical Simulations of test cases with multiple complex wells demonstrate the ability of the new algorithm to capture the interference between the various wells and the reservoir accurately. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A model of collateral, investment and adverse selection

This paper characterizes the relationship between entrepreneurial wealth and aggregate investmentunder adverse selection. Its main finding is that such a relationship need not bemonotonic. In particular, three results emerge from the analysis: (i) pooling equilibria, in whichinvestment is independent of entrepreneurial wealth, are more likely to arise when entrepreneurialwealth is relatively low; (ii) separating equilibria, in which investment is increasing inentrepreneurial wealth, are most likely to arise when entrepreneurial wealth is relatively highand; (iii) for a given interest rate, an increase in entrepreneurial wealth may generate a discontinuousfall in investment.

Model selection and error estimation

We study model selection strategies based on penalized empirical loss minimization. We point out a tight relationship between error estimation and data-based complexity penalization: any good error estimate may be converted into a data-based penalty function and the performance of the estimate is governed by the quality of the error estimate. We consider several penalty functions, involving error estimates on independent test data, empirical {\sc vc} dimension, empirical {\sc vc} entropy, andmargin-based quantities. We also consider the maximal difference between the error on the first half of the training data and the second half, and the expected maximal discrepancy, a closely related capacity estimate that can be calculated by Monte Carlo integration. Maximal discrepancy penalty functions are appealing for pattern classification problems, since their computation is equivalent to empirical risk minimization over the training data with some labels flipped.

Two myrmecophilous scale insects, Cryptostigma urichi (Cockerell) (Hemiptera, Coccidae) and Farinococcus multispinosus Morrison (Hemiptera, Pseudococcidae), cohabiting inside branches of Anadenanthera falcata (Benth.) Speg. (Fabales, Fabaceae) in the Cerrado area of São Paulo State, Brazil

The soft scale Cryptostigma urichi (Cockerell, 1894) and the mealybug Farinococcus multispinosus Morrison, 1922 are reported cohabiting inside branches of Anadenanthera falcata (Benth.) Speg. (Angico-preto), both tended by the ant Azteca oecocordia Longino, 2007 (Hymenoptera, Formicidae). This interaction was observed in the Cerrado region sensu stricto, at the Federal University of São Carlos, UFSCar, Brazil. A. oecocordia is recorded for the first time in Brazil.

Therapist interventions using the Psychodynamic Interventions Rating Scale (PIRS) in dynamic therapy, psychoanalysis and CBT.

Abstract One requirement for psychotherapy research is an accurate assessment of therapeutic interventions across studies. This study compared frequency and depth of therapist interventions from a dynamic perspective across four studies, conducted in four countries, including three treatment arms of psychodynamic psychotherapy, and one each of psychoanalysis and CBT. All studies used the Psychodynamic Intervention Rating Scales (PIRS) to identify 10 interventions from transcribed whole sessions early and later in treatment. The PIRS adequately categorized all interventions, except in CBT (only 91-93% categorized). As hypothesized, interpretations were present in all dynamic therapies and relatively absent in CBT. Proportions of interpretations increased over time. Defense interpretations were more common than transference interpretations, which were most prevalent in psychoanalysis. Depth of interpretations also increased over time. These data can serve as norms for measuring where on the supportive-interpretive continuum a dynamic treatment lies, as well as identify potentially mutative interventions for further process and outcome study.

Egg laying site selection by a host plant specialist leaf miner moth at two intra-plant levels in the northern Chilean Atacama Desert

Egg laying site selection by a host plant specialist leaf miner moth at two intra-plant levels in the northern Chilean Atacama Desert. The spatial distribution of the immature stages of the leaf miner Angelabella tecomae Vargas & Parra, 2005 was determined at two intra-plant levels (shoot and leaflet) on the shrub Tecoma fulva fulva (Cav.) D. Don (Bignoniaceae) in the Azapa valley, northern Chilean Atacama Desert. An aggregated spatial pattern was detected for all the immature stages along the shoot, with an age dependent relative position: eggs and first instar larvae were clumped at apex; second, third and fourth instar larvae were mostly found at intermediate positions; meanwhile the spinning larva and pupa were clumped at basis. This pattern suggests that the females select new, actively growing leaflets for egg laying. At the leaflet level, the immature stages were found more frequently at underside. Furthermore, survivorship was higher for larvae from underside mines. All these results highlight the importance of an accurate selection of egg laying site in the life history of this highly specialized leaf miner. By contrast, eventual wrong choices in the egg laying site selection may be associated with diminished larval survivorship. The importance of the continuous availability of new plant tissue in this highly human modified arid environment is discussed in relation with the observed patterns.