Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science

Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who is often deferred to in its interpretation. We refer to predictions by experts of what may happen in a particular context as expert judgments. In general, an expert-elicitation approach consists of five steps: deciding how information will be used, determining what to elicit, designing the elicitation process, performing the elicitation, and translating the elicited information into quantitative statements that can be used in a model or directly to make decisions. This last step is known as encoding. Some of the considerations in eliciting expert knowledge include determining how to work with multiple experts and how to combine multiple judgments, minimizing bias in the elicited information, and verifying the accuracy of expert information. We highlight structured elicitation techniques that, if adopted, will improve the accuracy and information content of expert judgment and ensure uncertainty is captured accurately. We suggest four aspects of an expert elicitation exercise be examined to determine its comprehensiveness and effectiveness: study design and context, elicitation design, elicitation method, and elicitation output. Just as the reliability of empirical data depends on the rigor with which it was acquired so too does that of expert knowledge.

Performance analysis of PTP components for IEC 61850 process bus applications

New substation automation applications, such as sampled value process buses and synchrophasors, require sampling accuracy of 1 µs or better. The Precision Time Protocol (PTP), IEEE Std 1588, achieves this level of performance and integrates well into Ethernet based substation networks. This paper takes a systematic approach to the performance evaluation of commercially available PTP devices (grandmaster, slave, transparent and boundary clocks) from a variety of manufacturers. The ``error budget'' is set by the performance requirements of each application. The ``expenditure'' of this error budget by each component is valuable information for a system designer. The component information is used to design a synchronization system that meets the overall functional requirements. The quantitative performance data presented shows that this testing is effective and informative. Results from testing PTP performance in the presence of sampled value process bus traffic demonstrate the benefit of a ``bottom up'' component testing approach combined with ``top down'' system verification tests. A test method that uses a precision Ethernet capture card, rather than dedicated PTP test sets, to determine the Correction Field Error of transparent clocks is presented. This test is particularly relevant for highly loaded Ethernet networks with stringent timing requirements. The methods presented can be used for development purposes by manufacturers, or by system integrators for acceptance testing. A sampled value process bus was used as the test application for the systematic approach described in this paper. The test approach was applied, components were selected, and the system performance verified to meet the application's requirements. Systematic testing, as presented in this paper, is applicable to a range of industries that use, rather than develop, PTP for time transfer.

Phenomenology as a method for exploring management practice

Phenomenology is a term that has been described as a philosophy, a research paradigm, a methodology, and equated with qualitative research. In this paper first we clarify phenomenology by tracing its movement both as a philosophy and as a research method. Next we make a case for the use of phenomenology in empirical investigations of management phenomena. The paper discusses a selection of central concepts pertaining to phenomenology as a scientific research method, which include description, phenomenological reduction and free imaginative variation. In particular, the paper elucidates the efficacy of Giorgi’s descriptive phenomenological research praxis as a qualitative research method and how its utility can be applied in creating a deeper and richer understanding of management practice.

Pedigree-free animal models : the relatedness matrix reloaded

Animal models typically require a known genetic pedigree to estimate quantitative genetic parameters. Here we test whether animal models can alternatively be based on estimates of relatedness derived entirely from molecular marker data. Our case study is the morphology of a wild bird population, for which we report estimates of the genetic variance-covariance matrices (G) of six morphological traits using three methods: the traditional animal model; a molecular marker-based approach to estimate heritability based on Ritland's pairwise regression method; and a new approach using a molecular genealogy arranged in a relatedness matrix (R) to replace the pedigree in an animal model. Using the traditional animal model, we found significant genetic variance for all six traits and positive genetic covariance among traits. The pairwise regression method did not return reliable estimates of quantitative genetic parameters in this population, with estimates of genetic variance and covariance typically being very small or negative. In contrast, we found mixed evidence for the use of the pedigree-free animal model. Similar to the pairwise regression method, the pedigree-free approach performed poorly when the full-rank R matrix based on the molecular genealogy was employed. However, performance improved substantially when we reduced the dimensionality of the R matrix in order to maximize the signal to noise ratio. Using reduced-rank R matrices generated estimates of genetic variance that were much closer to those from the traditional model. Nevertheless, this method was less reliable at estimating covariances, which were often estimated to be negative. Taken together, these results suggest that pedigree-free animal models can recover quantitative genetic information, although the signal remains relatively weak. It remains to be determined whether this problem can be overcome by the use of a more powerful battery of molecular markers and improved methods for reconstructing genealogies.

A method for measuring the creative potential of computer games

This paper describes a method for measuring the creative potential of computer games. The research approach applies a behavioral and verbal protocol to analyze the factors that influence the creative processes used by people as they play computer games from the puzzle genre. Creative potential is measured by examining task motivation and domain-relevant and creativity-relevant skills. This paper focuses on the reliability of the factors used for measurement, determining those factors that are more strongly related to creativity. The findings show that creative potential may be determined by examining the relationship between skills required and the effect of intrinsic motivation within game play activities.

Performance assessment of exponential Rosenbrock method for large systems of ODE

This paper studies time integration methods for large stiff systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) of the form u'(t) = g(u(t)). For such problems, implicit methods generally outperform explicit methods, since the time step is usually less restricted by stability constraints. Recently, however, explicit so-called exponential integrators have become popular for stiff problems due to their favourable stability properties. These methods use matrix-vector products involving exponential-like functions of the Jacobian matrix, which can be approximated using Krylov subspace methods that require only matrix-vector products with the Jacobian. In this paper, we implement exponential integrators of second, third and fourth order and demonstrate that they are competitive with well-established approaches based on the backward differentiation formulas and a preconditioned Newton-Krylov solution strategy.

Measuring neighbourhood sustainability : a comparative analysis of residential types in Malaysia

The expansion of city-regions, the increase in the standard of living and changing lifestyles have collectively led to an increase in housing demand. New residential areas are encroaching onto the city fringes including suburban and green field areas. Large and small developers are actively building houses ranging from a few blocks to master-planned style projects. These residential developments, particularly in major urban areas, represent a large portion of urban land use in Malaysia, and, thus, have become a major contributor to overall urban sustainability. There are three main types that comprise the mainstream, and form integral parts to contemporary urban residential developments, namely, subdivision developments, piecemeal developments, and master-planned developments. Many new master-planned developments market themselves as environmentally friendly, and provide layouts that encompass sustainable design and development. To date, however, there have been limited studies conducted to examine such claims or to ascertain which of these three residential development layouts is more sustainable. To fill this gap, this research was undertaken to develop a framework for assessing the level of sustainability of residential developments, focusing on their layouts at the neighbourhood level. The development of this framework adopted a mixed method research strategy and embedded research design to achieve the study aim and objectives. Data were collected from two main sources, where quantitative data were gathered from a three-round Delphi survey and spatial data from a layout plan. Sample respondents for surveys were selected from among experts in the field of the built environment, both from Malaysia and internationally. As for spatial data, three case studies – master-planned, piecemeal and subdivision developments representing different types of neighbourhood developments in Malaysia have been selected. Prior to application on the case studies, the appropriate framework was subjected to validation to ascertain its robustness for application in Malaysia. Following the application of the framework on the three case studies the results revealed that master-planned development scored a better level of sustainability compared to piecemeal and subdivision developments. The results generated from this framework are expected to provide evidence to the policy makers and development agencies as well as provide an awareness of the level of sustainability and the necessary collective efforts required for developing sustainable neighbourhoods. Continuous assessment can facilitate a comparison of sustainability over time for neighbourhoods as a means to monitor changes in the level of sustainability. In addition, the framework is able to identify any particular indicator (issue) that causes a significant impact on sustainability.

An integrated approach to enhance sustainability in industrialised building systems

Building prefabrication is known as Industrialised Building Systems (IBS) in Malaysia. This construction method possesses unique characteristics that are central to sustainable construction. For example, offsite construction enables efficient management of construction wastage by identifying major causes of waste arising during both the design and construction stages. These causes may then be eliminated by the improvement process in IBS component's manufacturing. However, current decisions on using IBS are typically financial driven and hinder the wider ranged adoption. In addition, current IBS misconceptions and the failure of rating schemes in evaluating the sustainability of IBS affect its implementation. A new approach is required to provide better understanding on the sustainability potential of IBS among stakeholders. Such approach should also help project the outcomes of each levels of decision-making to respond to social, economy and environmental challenges. This paper presents interim findings of research aimed at developing a framework for sustainable IBS development and suggests a more holistic approach to achieve sustainability. A framework of embedding sustainability factors is considered in three main phases of IBS construction; 1) Pre-construction, 2) Construction and 3) Post-construction phase. SWOT analysis was used to evaluate the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats involved in the IBS implementations. The action plans are formulated from the analysis of sustainable objectives. This approach will show where and how sustainability should be integrated to improve IBS construction. A mix of quantitative and qualitative methodology was used in this research to explore the potential of IBS in integrating sustainability. The tools used in the study are questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. Outcomes from these tools lead to the identification of viable approaches involving 18 critical factors to improve sustainability in IBS constructions. Finally, guidelines for decision-making are being developed to provide a useful source of information and support to mutual benefit of the stakeholders in integrating sustainability issues and concepts into IBS applications.

Promotion and succession management and associated retention issues in Australian law firms

The focus of this research was promotion and succession management in Australian law firms. Two staff retention issues currently faced by the Australian legal industry were identified as suggesting possible failures in this area: 1) Practitioners are leaving law firms early in their careers, 2) Female representation is disproportionally low at partnership level. The research described current Australian law firm promotion and succession practices and then explained their possible relevance to the two retention issues. The overall aim of the research was to uncover key findings and present practical recommendations to law firm managers and partners ready for incorporation into their future promotion and succession planning practice. In so doing the research aimed to benefit the Australian legal community as a whole. Four areas of literature relevant to the topic were reviewed, 1) law firm governance concluding that the fundamental values of the P²-Form remained constant (Cooper, Hinings, Greenwood & Brown, 1996; Morris & Pinnington, 1998) with ownership and strategic control of law firms remaining in the hands of partners; 2) the importance of individual practitioners to law firms concluding that the actual and opportunity costs relating to practitioner turnover were significant due to the transient nature of knowledge as a key asset of law firms (Gottschalk & Khandelwal, 2004; Rebitzer & Taylor, 2007); 3) generational differences concluding with support for the work of Finegold, Mohrman and Spreitzer (2002), Davis, Pawlowski and Houston (2006), Kuhnreuther (2003), and Avery, McKay, and Wilson (2007) which indicated that generational cohort differences were of little utility in human resources management practice; and 4) previous research relating to law firm promotion and succession practices indicating that five practices were relevant in law firm promotion outcomes; 1) firm billing requirements (Gorman & Kmec, 2009; Phillips, 2001; Noonan & Corcoran, 2004; Webley & Duff, 2007); 2) mentoring programs (Phillips, 2001; Noonan & Corcoran, 2004); 3) the existence of female partners (Gorman & Kmec, 2009; Beckman & Phillips, 2005); 4) non-partner career paths (Phillips, 2001; Corcoran & Noonan, 2004); and 5) the existence of family friendly policies (Gorman & Kmec, 2009; Phillips, 2001; Noonan & Corcoran, 2004; Webley & Duff, 2007.) The research was carried out via a sequential mixed method approach. The initial quantitative study was based upon a theoretical framework grounded in the literature and provided baseline information describing Australian law firm promotion and succession practices. The study was carried out via an on-line survey of Australian law firm practitioners. The results of the study provided the basis for the second qualitative study. The qualitative study further explained the statistically generated results and focused specifically on the two identified retention issues. The study was conducted via one-on-one interviews with Australian law firm partners and experienced law firm managers. The results of both studies were combined within the context of relevant literature resulting in eight key findings: Key findings 1) Organisational commitment levels across generational cohorts are more homogenous than different. 2) Law firm practitioners are leaving law firms early in their careers due to the heavy time commitment behaviour demanded of them, particularly by clients. 3) Law firm promotion and succession practices reinforce practitioner time commitment behaviour marking it as an indicator of practitioner success. 4) Law firm practitioners believe that they have many career options outside law firms and are considering these options. 5) Female practitioners are considering opting out of law firms due to time commitment demands related to partnership conflicting with family commitment demands. 6) A masculine, high time commitment culture in law firms is related to the decision by female practitioners to leave law firms. 7) The uptake of alternative work arrangements by female practitioners is not fatal to their partnership prospects particularly in firms with supportive policies, processes and organisational culture. 8) Female practitioners are less inclined than their male counterparts to seek partnership as an ultimate goal and are more likely to opt out of law firms exhibiting highly competitive, masculine cultures. Practical recommendations Further review of the data collected in relation to the key findings provided the basis for nine practical recommendations specifically geared towards implementation by law firm managers and partners. The first recommendation relates to the use of generational differences in practitioner management. The next six relate to recommended actions to reduce the time commitment demands on practitioners. The final two recommendations relate to the practical implementation of these actions both at an individual and organisational level. The recommendations are as follows: 1) "Generationally driven," age based generalisations should not be utilised in law firm promotion and succession management practice. 2) Expected levels of client access to practitioners be negotiated on a client by client basis and be included in client retention agreements. 3) Appropriate alternative working arrangements such as working off-site, flexible working hours or part-time work be offered to practitioners in situations where doing so will not compromise client serviceability. 4) The copying of long working hour behaviours of senior practitioners should be discouraged particularly where information technology can facilitate remote client serviceability. 5) Refocus the use of timesheets from an employer monitoring tool to an employee empowerment tool. 6) Policies and processes relating to the offer of alternative working arrangements be supported and reinforced by law firm organisational culture. 7) Requests for alternative working arrangements be determined without regard to gender. 8) Incentives and employment conditions offered to practitioners to be individualised based on the subjective need of the individual and negotiated as a part of the current employee performance review process. 9) Individually negotiated employment conditions be negotiated within the context of the firm’s overall strategic planning process. Through the conduct of the descripto-explanatory study, a detailed discussion of current law firm promotion and succession practices was enabled. From this discussion, 7 eight key findings and nine associated recommendations were generated as well as an insight into the future of the profession being given. The key findings and recommendations provide practical advice to law firm managers and partners in relation to their everyday promotion and succession practice. The need to negotiate individual employee workplace conditions and their integration into overall law firm business planning was put forward. By doing so, it was suggested that both the individual employee and the employing law firm would mutually benefit from the arrangement. The study therefore broadened its practical contribution from human resources management to a contribution to the overall management practice of Australian law firms. In so doing, the research has provided an encompassing contribution to the Australian legal industry both in terms of employee welfare as well as firm and industry level success.

Marginal reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo with application to motor unit number estimation

Motor unit number estimation (MUNE) is a method which aims to provide a quantitative indicator of progression of diseases that lead to loss of motor units, such as motor neurone disease. However the development of a reliable, repeatable and fast real-time MUNE method has proved elusive hitherto. Ridall et al. (2007) implement a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm to produce a posterior distribution for the number of motor units using a Bayesian hierarchical model that takes into account biological information about motor unit activation. However we find that the approach can be unreliable for some datasets since it can suffer from poor cross-dimensional mixing. Here we focus on improved inference by marginalising over latent variables to create the likelihood. In particular we explore how this can improve the RJMCMC mixing and investigate alternative approaches that utilise the likelihood (e.g. DIC (Spiegelhalter et al., 2002)). For this model the marginalisation is over latent variables which, for a larger number of motor units, is an intractable summation over all combinations of a set of latent binary variables whose joint sample space increases exponentially with the number of motor units. We provide a tractable and accurate approximation for this quantity and also investigate simulation approaches incorporated into RJMCMC using results of Andrieu and Roberts (2009).

A method for systematically pooling data in very early stage construction price forecasting

Client owners usually need an estimate or forecast of their likely building costs in advance of detailed design in order to confirm the financial feasibility of their projects. Because of their timing in the project life cycle, these early stage forecasts are characterized by the minimal amount of information available concerning the new (target) project to the point that often only its size and type are known. One approach is to use the mean contract sum of a sample, or base group, of previous projects of a similar type and size to the project for which the estimate is needed. Bernoulli’s law of large numbers implies that this base group should be as large as possible. However, increasing the size of the base group inevitably involves including projects that are less and less similar to the target project. Deciding on the optimal number of base group projects is known as the homogeneity or pooling problem. A method of solving the homogeneity problem is described involving the use of closed form equations to compare three different sampling arrangements of previous projects for their simulated forecasting ability by a cross-validation method, where a series of targets are extracted, with replacement, from the groups and compared with the mean value of the projects in the base groups. The procedure is then demonstrated with 450 Hong Kong projects (with different project types: Residential, Commercial centre, Car parking, Social community centre, School, Office, Hotel, Industrial, University and Hospital) clustered into base groups according to their type and size.

Identities and transformational experiences for quantitative problem solving : gender comparisons of first-year university science students

Women are underrepresented in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) areas in university settings; however this may be the result of attitude rather than aptitude. There is widespread agreement that quantitative problem-solving is essential for graduate competence and preparedness in science and other STEM subjects. The research question addresses the identities and transformative experiences (experiential, perception, & motivation) of both male and female university science students in quantitative problem solving. This study used surveys to investigate first-year university students’ (231 females and 198 males) perceptions of their quantitative problem solving. Stata (statistical analysis package version 11) analysed gender differences in quantitative problem solving using descriptive and inferential statistics. Males perceived themselves with a higher mathematics identity than females. Results showed that there was statistical significance (p<0.05) between the genders on 21 of the 30 survey items associated with transformative experiences. Males appeared to have a willingness to be involved in quantitative problem solving outside their science coursework requirements. Positive attitudes towards STEM-type subjects may need to be nurtured in females before arriving in the university setting (e.g., high school or earlier). Females also need equitable STEM education opportunities such as conversations or activities outside school with family and friends to develop more positive attitudes in these fields.

Duration-dependant response of mixed-method pre-cooling for intermittent-sprint exercise in the heat

This study examined the effects of pre-cooling duration on performance and neuromuscular function for self-paced intermittent-sprint shuttle running in the heat. Eight male, team-sport athletes completed two 35-min bouts of intermittent-sprint shuttle running separated by a 15-min recovery on three separate occasions (33°C, 34% relative humidity). Mixed-method pre-cooling was completed for 20 min (COOL20), 10-min (COOL10) or no cooling (CONT) and reapplied for 5-min mid-exercise. Performance was assessed via sprint times, percentage decline and shuttle-running distance covered. Maximal voluntary contractions (MVC), voluntary activation (VA) and evoked twitch properties were recorded pre- and post-intervention and mid- and post-exercise. Core temperature (T c), skin temperature, heart rate, capillary blood metabolites, sweat losses, perceptual exertion and thermal stress were monitored throughout. Venous blood draws pre- and post-exercise were analyzed for muscle damage and inflammation markers. Shuttle-running distances covered were increased 5.2 ± 3.3% following COOL20 (P < 0.05), with no differences observed between COOL10 and CONT (P > 0.05). COOL20 aided in the maintenance of mid- and post-exercise MVC (P < 0.05; d > 0.80), despite no conditional differences in VA (P > 0.05). Pre-exercise T c was reduced by 0.15 ± 0.13°C with COOL20 (P < 0.05; d > 1.10), and remained lower throughout both COOL20 and COOL10 compared to CONT (P < 0.05; d > 0.80). Pre-cooling reduced sweat losses by 0.4 ± 0.3 kg (P < 0.02; d > 1.15), with COOL20 0.2 ± 0.4 kg less than COOL10 (P = 0.19; d = 1.01). Increased pre-cooling duration lowered physiological demands during exercise heat stress and facilitated the maintenance of self-paced intermittent-sprint performance in the heat. Importantly, the dose-response interaction of pre-cooling and sustained neuromuscular responses may explain the improved exercise performance in hot conditions.

Mixed-method pre-cooling reduces physiological demand without improving performance of medium-fast bowling in the heat

This study examined physiological and performance effects of pre-cooling on medium-fast bowling in the heat. Ten, medium-fast bowlers completed two randomised trials involving either cooling (mixed-methods) or control (no cooling) interventions before a 6-over bowling spell in 31.9±2.1°C and 63.5±9.3% relative humidity. Measures included bowling performance (ball speed, accuracy and run-up speeds), physical characteristics (global positioning system monitoring and counter-movement jump height), physiological (heart rate, core temperature, skin temperature and sweat loss), biochemical (serum concentrations of damage, stress and inflammation) and perceptual variables (perceived exertion and thermal sensation). Mean ball speed (114.5±7.1 vs. 114.1±7.2 km · h−1; P = 0.63; d = 0.09), accuracy (43.1±10.6 vs. 44.2±12.5 AU; P = 0.76; d = 0.14) and total run-up speed (19.1±4.1 vs. 19.3±3.8 km · h−1; P = 0.66; d = 0.06) did not differ between pre-cooling and control respectively; however 20-m sprint speed between overs was 5.9±7.3% greater at Over 4 after pre-cooling (P = 0.03; d = 0.75). Pre-cooling reduced skin temperature after the intervention period (P = 0.006; d = 2.28), core temperature and pre-over heart rates throughout (P = 0.01−0.04; d = 0.96−1.74) and sweat loss by 0.4±0.3 kg (P = 0.01; d = 0.34). Mean rating of perceived exertion and thermal sensation were lower during pre-cooling trials (P = 0.004−0.03; d = 0.77−3.13). Despite no observed improvement in bowling performance, pre-cooling maintained between-over sprint speeds and blunted physiological and perceptual demands to ease the thermoregulatory demands of medium-fast bowling in hot conditions.

Effects of mixed-method cooling on recovery of medium-fast bowling performance in hot conditions on consecutive days

This investigation examined physiological and performance effects of cooling on recovery of medium-fast bowlers in the heat. Eight, medium-fast bowlers completed two randomised trials, involving two sessions completed on consecutive days (Session 1: 10-overs and Session 2: 4-overs) in 31 ± 3°C and 55 ± 17% relative humidity. Recovery interventions were administered for 20 min (mixed-method cooling vs. control) after Session 1. Measures included bowling performance (ball speed, accuracy, run-up speeds), physical demands (global positioning system, counter-movement jump), physiological (heart rate, core temperature, skin temperature, sweat loss), biochemical (creatine kinase, C-reactive protein) and perceptual variables (perceived exertion, thermal sensation, muscle soreness). Mean ball speed was higher after cooling in Session 2 (118.9 ± 8.1 vs. 115.5 ± 8.6 km · h−1; P = 0.001; d = 0.67), reducing declines in ball speed between sessions (0.24 vs. −3.18 km · h−1; P = 0.03; d = 1.80). Large effects indicated higher accuracy in Session 2 after cooling (46.0 ± 11.2 vs. 39.4 ± 8.6 arbitrary units [AU]; P = 0.13; d = 0.93) without affecting total run-up speed (19.0 ± 3.1 vs. 19.0 ± 2.5 km · h−1; P = 0.97; d = 0.01). Cooling reduced core temperature, skin temperature and thermal sensation throughout the intervention (P = 0.001–0.05; d = 1.31–5.78) and attenuated creatine kinase (P = 0.04; d = 0.56) and muscle soreness at 24-h (P = 0.03; d = 2.05). Accordingly, mixed-method cooling can reduce thermal strain after a 10-over spell and improve markers of muscular damage and discomfort alongside maintained medium-fast bowling performance on consecutive days in hot conditions.