Bayesian Analysis of a Superimposed Renewal Process

Stochastic behavior of an aero-engine failure/repair process has been analyzed from a Bayesian perspective. Number of failures/repairs in the component-sockets of this multi-component system are assumed to follow independent renewal processes with Weibull inter-arrival times. Based on the field failure/repair data of a large number of such engines and independent Gamma priors on the scale parameters and log-concave priors on the shape parameters, an exact method of sampling from the resulting posterior distributions of the parameters has been proposed. These generated parameter values are next utilised in obtaining the posteriors of the expected number of system repairs, system failure rate, and the conditional intensity function, which are computed using a recursive formula.

Simulation and graph mining tools for improving gene mapping efficiency

Gene mapping is a systematic search for genes that affect observable characteristics of an organism. In this thesis we offer computational tools to improve the efficiency of (disease) gene-mapping efforts. In the first part of the thesis we propose an efficient simulation procedure for generating realistic genetical data from isolated populations. Simulated data is useful for evaluating hypothesised gene-mapping study designs and computational analysis tools. As an example of such evaluation, we demonstrate how a population-based study design can be a powerful alternative to traditional family-based designs in association-based gene-mapping projects. In the second part of the thesis we consider a prioritisation of a (typically large) set of putative disease-associated genes acquired from an initial gene-mapping analysis. Prioritisation is necessary to be able to focus on the most promising candidates. We show how to harness the current biomedical knowledge for the prioritisation task by integrating various publicly available biological databases into a weighted biological graph. We then demonstrate how to find and evaluate connections between entities, such as genes and diseases, from this unified schema by graph mining techniques. Finally, in the last part of the thesis, we define the concept of reliable subgraph and the corresponding subgraph extraction problem. Reliable subgraphs concisely describe strong and independent connections between two given vertices in a random graph, and hence they are especially useful for visualising such connections. We propose novel algorithms for extracting reliable subgraphs from large random graphs. The efficiency and scalability of the proposed graph mining methods are backed by extensive experiments on real data. While our application focus is in genetics, the concepts and algorithms can be applied to other domains as well. We demonstrate this generality by considering coauthor graphs in addition to biological graphs in the experiments.

Effect of process variables on die-billet temperature history in a slow speed hot coining type process

A computer code is developed as a part of an ongoing project on computer aided process modelling of forging operation, to simulate heat transfer in a die-billet system. The code developed on a stage-by-stage technique is based on an Alternating Direction Implicit scheme. The experimentally validated code is used to study the effect of process specifics such as preheat die temperature, machine ascent time, rate of deformation, and dwell time on the thermal characteristics in a batch coining operation where deformation is restricted to surface level only.

Semi-Supervised Classification Using Sparse Gaussian Process Regression

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are promising Bayesian methods for classification and regression problems. They have also been used for semi-supervised learning tasks. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm for solving semi-supervised binary classification problem using sparse GP regression (GPR) models. It is closely related to semi-supervised learning based on support vector regression (SVR) and maximum margin clustering. The proposed algorithm is simple and easy to implement. It gives a sparse solution directly unlike the SVR based algorithm. Also, the hyperparameters are estimated easily without resorting to expensive cross-validation technique. Use of sparse GPR model helps in making the proposed algorithm scalable. Preliminary results on synthetic and real-world data sets demonstrate the efficacy of the new algorithm.

Role of barriers to conformational changes in ketones undergoing the Norrish type II process

The Norrish type II process is examined in three ketones containing primary, secondary and tertiary C---H bonds in the γ position relative to the carbonyl groups; the MINDO/3 semiempirical self-consistent field (SCF) molecular orbital (MO) method was used with complete geometry optimization in the unrestricted Hartree—Fock frame for the open-shell species. Results show that barriers to conformational change in ketones play an important role in the triplet reaction.

Production process of Scots pine.

The accompanying collective research report is the result of the research project in 1986­90 between The Finnish Academy and the former Soviet Academy of Sciences. The project was organized around common field work in Finland and in the former Soviet Union and theoretical analyses of tree growth determining processes. Based on theoretical analyses, dynamic stand growth models were made and their parameters were determined utilizing the field results. Annual cycle affects the tree growth. Our theoretical approach was based on adaptation to local climate conditions from Lapland to South Russia. The initiation of growth was described as a simple low and high temperature accumulation driven model. Linking the theoretical model with long term temperature data allowed us to analyze what type of temperature response produced favorable outcome in different climates. Initiation of growth consumes the carbohydrate reserves in plants. We measured the dynamics of insoluble and soluble sugars in the very northern and Karelian conditions. Clear cyclical pattern was observed but the differences between locations were surprisingly small. Analysis of field measurements of CO2 exchange showed that irradiance is the dominating factor causing variation in photosynthetic rate in natural conditions during summer. The effect of other factors is so small that they can be omitted without any considerable loss of accuracy. A special experiment carried out in Hyytiälä showed that the needle living space, defined as the ratio between the shoot cylindric volume and needle surface area, correlates with the shoot photosynthesis. The penetration of irradiance into Scots pine canopy is a complicated phenomenon because of the movement of the sun on the sky and the complicated structure of branches and needles. A moderately simple but balanced forest radiation regime submodel was constructed. It consists of the tree crown and forest structure, the gap probability calculation and the consideration of spatial and temporal variation of radiation inside the forest. The common field excursions in different geographical regions resulted in a lot of experimental data of regularities of woody structures. The water transport seems to be a good common factor to analyse these properties of tree structure. There are evident regressions between cross-sectional areas measured at different locations along the water pathway from fine roots to needles. The observed regressions have clear geographical trends. For example, the same cross-sectional area can support three times higher needle mass in South Russia than in Lapland. Geographical trends can also be seen in shoot and needle structure. Analysis of data published by several Russian authors show, that one ton of needles transpire 42 ton of water a year. This annual amount of transpiration seems to be independent of geographical location, year and site conditions. The produced theoretical and experimental material is utilised in the development of stand growth model that describes the growth and development of Scots pine stands in Finland and the former Soviet Union. The core of the model is carbon and nutrient balances. This means that carbon obtained in photosynthesis is consumed for growth and maintenance and nutrients are taken according to the metabolic needs. The annual photosynthetic production by trees in the stand is determined as a function of irradiance and shading during the active period. The utilisation of the annual photosynthetic production to the growth of different components of trees is based on structural regularities. Since the fundamental metabolic processes are the same in all locations the same growth model structure can be applied in the large range of Scots pine. The annual photosynthetic production and structural regularities determining the allocation of resources have geographical features. The common field measurements enable the application of the model to the analysis of growth and development of stands growing on the five locations of experiments. The model enables the analysis of geographical differences in the growth of Scots pine. For example, the annual photosynthetic production of a 100-year-old stand at Voronez is 3.5 times higher than in Lapland. The share consumed to needle growth (30 %) and to growth of branches (5 %) seems to be the same in all locations. In contrast, the share of fine roots is decreasing when moving from north to south. It is 20 % in Lapland, 15 % in Hyytiälä Central Finland and Kentjärvi Karelia and 15 % in Voronez South Russia. The stem masses (115­113 ton/ha) are rather similar in Hyytiälä, Kentjärvi and Voronez, but rather low (50 ton/ha) in Lapland. In Voronez the height of the trees reach 29 m being in Hyytiälä and Kentjärvi 22 m and in Lapland only 14 m. The present approach enables utilization of structural and functional knowledge, gained in places of intensive research, in the analysis of growth and development of any stand. This opens new possibilities for growth research and also for applications in forestry practice.

The Mechanism Of The Hydrogen Abstraction Process By Photo-Excited Ketones

Qualitative potential energy surfaces for hydrogen abstraction from alkanes containing primary, secondary and tertiary C-H bonds by a photo-excited ketone have been reported, The results suggest that the activation barriers for these processes decrease in the order primary > secondary > tertiary in agreement with the observed trend in the rate constants. The analysis of the electronic structure of the transition-state reveal that electron-transfer from hydrocarbon to ketone and formation of a new bond are almost synchronous in the hydrogen transfer process. The tunneling of hydrogen is not important in the normal temperature region even though the barriers are small.

A New Liquid Level Sensor for Process-Control Applications

Many process-control systems are air-operated. In such an environment, it would be desirable and economical to use pneumatic sensors. Bubble-back pressure sensors perform quite satisfactorily, but in case of viscous inflammable and slurry-like liquids with a tendency to froth, this level sensor is inadequate. The method suggested in this paper utilizes a pneumatic capacitor, one boundary of which is formed by the liquid level, to modulate a fluid amplifier feedback oscillator. The absence of moving parts and economy obtained makes this method attractive for process-control applications. The system has been mathematically modeled and simulated on an IBM 360/44 digital computer. Experimental values compare fairly well with the theoretical results. For the range tested, the sensor is found to have a linear frequency variation with the liquid level Extended running in the laboratory shows that the system is very reliable. This system has been found insensitive to temperature variations of up to 15ðC.

Mechanism of gel-to-crystallite conversion process in the synthesis of nanocrystalline multinary oxides

Description of gel-to-crystallite conversion process is made towards the synthesis of nanocrystalline titanates and aluminates. Thermodynamic and kinetic factors governing the conversion of a gel to meta-stable and stable nanocrystalline products(s) are discussed. Correlations between these factors and the preparative conditions employed for the syntheses of titanates and aluminates are arrived at.

Chinese immigrants to Finland: A qualitative study of housing, employment, access to health care and child care as sociological dimensions in their settlement process

The Master’s thesis is qualitative research based on interviews of 15 Chinese immigrants to Finland in order to provide a sociological perspective of the migration experience through the eyes of Chinese immigrants in the Finnish social welfare context. This research is mainly focused upon four crucial aspects of life in the settlement process: housing, employment, access to health care and child care. Inspired by Allardt’s theoretical framework ‘Having, Loving and Being’, social relationships and individual satisfaction are examined in the case of Chinese interviewees dealing with the four life aspects. Finland was not perceived as an attractive migration destination for most Chinese interviewees in the beginning. However, with longer residence in Finland, the Finnish social welfare system gradually became a crucial appealing factor in their permanent settlement in Finland. And meanwhile, social responsibility of attending their old parents in China, strong feelings of being isolated in Finland, and insufficient integration into the Finnish society were influential factors for their decision of returning to China. Social relationships with personal friends, migration brokers, schools, employers and family relatives had great influences in the four life aspects of Chinese immigrants in Finland. The social relationship with the Finnish social welfare sector is supportive to Chinese immigrants, but Chinese immigrants do not heavily rely on Finnish social protection. The housing conditions were greatly improved over time while the upward mobility in the Finnish labour market was not significant among Chinese immigrants. All Chinese immigrants were satisfied with their current housing by the time I interviewed them while most of them had subjective feelings of being alienated in the Finnish labour market, which seriously prevented them from integrating into the Finnish society. In general, Chinese immigrants were satisfied with the low cost of accessing the Finnish public health care services and affordable Finnish child day care services and financial subsidies for children from the Finnish social welfare sector. This research also suggests that employment is the central basis in well-being. Support from the Finnish social welfare sector can improve the satisfaction levels among immigrants, especially when it mitigates the effects of low-paid employment. As well, my empirical study of Chinese immigrants in Finland shows that Having (needs for materials), Loving (needs for social relations) and Being (needs for social integration) are all involved in the four concrete aspects (housing, employment, access to health care and child care).

Macroscopic model of city traffic using bond graph modelling

Modelling of city traffic involves capturing of all the dynamics that exist in real-time traffic. Probabilistic models and queuing theory have been used for mathematical representation of the traffic system. This paper proposes the concept of modelling the traffic system using bond graphs wherein traffic flow is based on energy conservation. The proposed modelling approach uses switched junctions to model complex traffic networks. This paper presents the modelling, simulation and experimental validation aspects.

Hybrid Solar Cooking

In the existing traditional solar cookers, the cooking is performed near the collector which may be at an inconvenient location for cooking purposes. This paper proposes a hybrid solar cooking system where the solar energy is brought to the kitchen. The energy source is a combination of the solar thermal energy and the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) that is very common in kitchens. The solar thermal energy is transferred to the kitchen by means of a circulating fluid like oil. The transfer of solar heat is a two fold process wherein the energy from the collector is transferred first to an intermediate energy storage tank and then the energy is subsequently transferred from the tank to the cooking load. There are three parameters that are controlled in order to maximize the energy transfer from the collector to the load viz. the fluid flow rate from collector to tank, fluid flow rate from tank to load and the diameter of the pipes. The entire system is modeled using the bond graph approach. This paper discusses the implementation of such a system.