936 resultados para probabilistic ranking


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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

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Poster (and extended abstract) presented at the 13th International Conference "Libraries in the Digital Age (LIDA 2014)" held on 16-20th June, University of Zadar, Zadar, Croatia

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This work aims to identify and rank a set of Lean and Green practices and supply chain performance measures on which managers should focus to achieve competitiveness and improve the performance of automotive supply chains. The identification of the contextual relationships among the suggested practices and measures, was performed through literature review. Their ranking was done by interviews with professionals from the automotive industry and academics with wide knowledge on the subject. The methodology of interpretive structural modelling (ISM) is a useful methodology to identify inter relationships among Lean and Green practices and supply chain performance measures and to support the evaluation of automotive supply chain performance. Using the ISM methodology, the variables under study were clustered according to their driving power and dependence power. The ISM methodology was proposed to be used in this work. The model intends to provide a better understanding of the variables that have more influence (driving variables), the others and those which are most influenced (dependent variables) by others. The information provided by this model is strategic for managers who can use it to identify which variables they should focus on in order to have competitive supply chains.

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INTRODUCTION: Publications are often used as a measure of success in research work. Chagas disease occurs in Central and Southern America. However, during the past years, the disease has been occurring outside Latin America due to migration from endemic zones. This article describes a bibliometric review of the literature on Chagas disease research indexed in PubMed during a 70-year period. METHODS: Medline was used via the PubMed online service of the U.S. National Library of Medicine from 1940 to 2009. The search strategy was: Chagas disease [MeSH] OR Trypanosoma cruzi [MeSH]. RESULTS: A total of 13,989 references were retrieved. The number of publications increased steadily over time from 1,361 (1940-1969) to 5,430 (2000-2009) (coefficient of determination for linear fit, R²=0.910). Eight journals contained 25% of the Chagas disease literature. Of the publications, 64.2% came from endemic countries. Brazil was the predominant country (37%), followed by the United States (17.6%) and Argentina (14%). The ranking in production changed when the number of publications was normalized by estimated cases of Chagas disease (Panama and Uruguay), population (Argentina and Uruguay), and gross domestic product (Bolivia and Brazil). CONCLUSIONS: Several Latin American countries, where the prevalence of T. cruzi infection was not very high, were the main producers of the Chagas disease literature, after adjusting for economic and population indexes. The countries with more estimated cases of Chagas disease produced less research on Chagas disease than some developed countries.

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Objective: Quality of life was measured using the EQ-5D index for Portugal and a Self-Assessed Ranking of Health (SARH) to understand which patients suffer the most decrease in quality of life: diabetics or hypertensive. Method: Using the National Health Survey (NHS), two analyses were conducted on 5649 respondents. The EQ-5D index was calculated by matching questions in the NHS with its dimensions. The SARH was calculated based on a specific question in the NHS. Results: Differences between diseases do not occur using the EQ-5D index. Using the SARH, type 1 diabetics suffer the most while hypertensive suffers the least.

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This work evaluates the efficiency position of the health system of each OECD country. It identifies whether, or not, health systems changed in terms of quality and performance after the financial crisis. The health systems performance was calculated by fixed-effects estimator and by stochastic frontier analysis. The results suggest that many of those countries that the crisis affected the most are more efficient than the OECD average. In addition, some of those countries even managed to reach the top decile in the efficiency ranking. Finally, we analyze the stochastic frontier efficiency scores together with other health indicators to evaluate the health systems’ overall adjustments derived from the crisis.

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The European Court of Justice has held that as from 21 December 2012 insurers may no longer charge men and women differently on the basis of scientific evidence that is statistically linked to their sex, effectively prohibiting the use of sex as a factor in the calculation of premiums and benefits for the purposes of insurance and related financial services throughout the European Union. This ruling marks a sharp turn away from the traditional view that insurers should be allowed to apply just about any risk assessment criterion, so long as it is sustained by the findings of actuarial science. The naïveté behind the assumption that insurers’ recourse to statistical data and probabilistic analysis, given their scientific nature, would suffice to keep them out of harm’s way was exposed. In this article I look at the flaws of this assumption and question whether this judicial decision, whilst constituting a most welcome landmark in the pursuit of equality between men and women, has nonetheless gone too far by saying too little on the million dollar question of what separates admissible criteria of differentiation from inadmissible forms of discrimination.

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Currently, Angola portrays a notorious economic growth and due to recent innovative legislations, it has become the major investment attracting pole, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, having, thus, an extraordinary potentiality for a rapid and sustainable development, likely to place her in outstanding positions in the world economic ranking. Yet, such economic growth entails demanding levels of intensive investment in infrastructure, what has been reported of the Angolan Government to be unable to respond to, save if recurring to very high index of external debt, poisoning, in this way, the future budgeting of the country. Due to these infrastructure investment shortages, the cost of production remains highly onerous and the cost of life extremely unaffordable. On this account, the current study disserts about the contract of Project Finance; an alternative finance resource given as a viable solution for the private financing of infrastructure, aiming to demonstrate that such contractual figure, likewise the experience of several emerging economies and others, is a contract bid framework to take into account in today’s world. It refers to a financing technique – through which the Government may satisfy a common need (for example, the construction of a public domain or public servicing), without having to pay neither offer any collateral – based on a complex legal-financial engineering, arranged throughout a coalition of typical and atypical agreements, whereby it is mandatory to look back at the basic concepts of corporate law. More than just a simple financial study, the dissertation at stake analyses the nature and legal framework of Project Finance, which is a legally atypical and innominate contract, concluding that there is a relevant need for regulating and devoting a special legal regime in the Angolan jurisdiction for this promising legal form in the contemporary corporate finance world.

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RESUMO: Background: Problemas de saúde mental são um grande problema clínico e social na República da Moldávia, representando uma quota significante de deficiência, sendo classificada no top cinco das dez linhas na hierarquia das condições. A taxa de incidência tem sido crescente na República da Moldávia, atingindo cerca de 15.000 por ano (14,655 em 2011), ou seja, 411,4 por 100 mil habitantes, e uma taxa de prevalência de 97.525 pessoas em 2011, ou seja, 2,737.9 por 100 mil habitantes. Sistema de atendimento psiquiátrico fornece serviços de saúde mental escassos a nível da comunidade, visando principalmente terapia hospitalar, centralizada, através de uma rede de três hospitais psiquiátricos, com 1.860 camas e 4 sanatórios psico- neurológicos com 1890 camas, assim alimentando-se a estigmatização do paciente. Objetivos: O objetivo deste estudo foi a avaliação das necessidades individuais dos beneficiários e do seu nível de autonomia dentro de cuidados residenciais, para o planeamento de reformas de saúde mental e desinstitucionalização na República da Moldávia. Este estudo foi encomendado pelo Ministério do Trabalho, Proteção Social e da Família e pelo Ministério da Saúde, com o apoio da Organização Mundial da Saúde, para determinar o cumprimento eficaz do artigo 19 da Convenção da ONU. O estudo tem os seguintes objetivos: Avaliar o nível de autonomia dos residentes nos hospitais psiquiátricos e sanatórios psico-neurológico, usando uma amostra representativa de 10 por ce nto do número total de pacientes/residentes e comparação cruzada; Para avaliar quatro sanatórios psico-neurológicos para adultos e três hospitais psiquiátricos; Para desenvolver recomendações para o planeamento da desinstitucionalização das pessoas com problemas de saúde mental e colocação na comunidade com base nos resultados do estudo. Metodologia e resultados: O estudo fez uso de duas ferramentas globais: questionário para a avaliação individual dos residentes do estabelecimento de saúde mental, e questionário de avaliação institucional. Todos os entrevistados foram divididos em quatro categorias conforme com o grau de dependência e preparação de viver de forma independente na comunidade. Apenas 1,2% dos entrevistados de PNHB eram totalmente dependentes de terceiros ou serviços especializados, tornando-se a categoria 4, que necessitam de cuidados e apoio contínuo. No PH esta categoria de pessoas é ausente. Conclusões: A condição dos entrevistados foi pior em PNBH que em PH. No entanto, ainda, aqueles que estão prontos para ser desinstitucionalizados correspondem com a maior parte dos entrevistados. Todos os hospitais tinham o consentimento do utente para admissão e tratamento, enquanto não houve consentimento qualquer em PNBH. É bastante óbvio que tanto os hospitais como também a sistema de assistência residencial não atingem a sua finalidade, o que significa que a maioria dos utentes pode ser desinstitucionalizados, sem qualquer terapia de suporte.------------------ABSTRACT: Background: Mental health problems are a major clinical and social issue in the Republic of Moldova,accounting for a significant share of disability and ranking in top five of the ten lines in the hierarchy of conditions. The incidence rate has been growing in the Republic of Moldova to reach approximately 15 thousand a year (14,655 in 2011), i.e. 411.4 per 100 thousand population, and a prevalence rate of 97,525 thousand people in 2011, i.e. 2,737.9 per 100 thousand population. Psychiatric care system provides for scanty mental health services at community level, aiming mainly at centralized hospital-based therapy through a network of three psychiatric hospitals tallying up 1,860 beds and 4 psycho-neurological boarding houses with 1,890 beds, thus fuelling up patient stigmatization. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to assess the individual needs of beneficiaries and their level of autonomy within residential care for the planning of mental health system reforms and deinstitutionalization in the Republic of Moldova. This study was commissioned by the Ministry of Labour, Social Protection and Family and by the Ministry of Health, with the World Health Organization support, to provide for effective enforcement of article 19 of the UN CRPD. The study pursued the following goals: To evaluate the level of autonomy of the psychiatric hospital and psycho-neurological boarding house residents by using a representative sample of 10 per cent of the total number of patients / residents and cross-comparison; To evaluate four psycho-neurological boarding houses for adults and three psychiatric hospitals; To develop recommendations for planning the deinstitutionalization of people with mental health problems and community placement based on the study findings.Methodology and results: The study made use of two global tools: questionnaire for individual assessment of mental health facility residents, and institutional assessment questionnaire. All interviewees were divided into four categories by one’s degree of dependence and readiness to live independently in the community. Only 1.2% of respondents from PNHB were fully dependent on a third party or specialized services, making up category 4, requiring continuous care and support. In PH this category of people is absent.Conclusions: The condition of respondents was worse in PNBH than in PH. However, yet, those ready to be deinstitutionalized accounted for most of respondents there. All hospitals had the resident’s consent to admission and treatment, whereas there was no consent in PNBH whatsoever. It is quite obvious that both the hospitals and residential care system do not achieve their intended purpose, meaning that the majority of residents may be deinstitutionalized without any support therapy.

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Machine ethics is an interdisciplinary field of inquiry that emerges from the need of imbuing autonomous agents with the capacity of moral decision-making. While some approaches provide implementations in Logic Programming (LP) systems, they have not exploited LP-based reasoning features that appear essential for moral reasoning. This PhD thesis aims at investigating further the appropriateness of LP, notably a combination of LP-based reasoning features, including techniques available in LP systems, to machine ethics. Moral facets, as studied in moral philosophy and psychology, that are amenable to computational modeling are identified, and mapped to appropriate LP concepts for representing and reasoning about them. The main contributions of the thesis are twofold. First, novel approaches are proposed for employing tabling in contextual abduction and updating – individually and combined – plus a LP approach of counterfactual reasoning; the latter being implemented on top of the aforementioned combined abduction and updating technique with tabling. They are all important to model various issues of the aforementioned moral facets. Second, a variety of LP-based reasoning features are applied to model the identified moral facets, through moral examples taken off-the-shelf from the morality literature. These applications include: (1) Modeling moral permissibility according to the Doctrines of Double Effect (DDE) and Triple Effect (DTE), demonstrating deontological and utilitarian judgments via integrity constraints (in abduction) and preferences over abductive scenarios; (2) Modeling moral reasoning under uncertainty of actions, via abduction and probabilistic LP; (3) Modeling moral updating (that allows other – possibly overriding – moral rules to be adopted by an agent, on top of those it currently follows) via the integration of tabling in contextual abduction and updating; and (4) Modeling moral permissibility and its justification via counterfactuals, where counterfactuals are used for formulating DDE.

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RESUMO: Objectivo: O presente estudo tem como principal objectivo a caracterização da vulnerabilidade individual em pessoas idosas residentes na comunidade. Metodologia: Trata-se de um estudo não experimental, exploratório, quantitativo, e transversal numa amostra probabilística de aleatorização simples (n=213). A vulnerabilidade individual foi avaliada com recurso ao instrumento Vulnerable Elders Survey 13 e as restantes variáveis sócio-demográficas por questionário, ambas por via telefónica. Resultados: A amostra era predominantemente feminina, com uma maior prevalência das pessoas com 75 ou mais anos, viúvas, sem escolaridade, maioritariamente a viverem sós e mais de com um rendimento mensal igual ou inferior a 485€. Relativamente à vulnerabilidade, numa amostra aleatorizada de 213 pessoas, apenas 15 não apresentavam vulnerabilidade, avaliada pelo Vulnerable Elders Survey-13 (VES-13). Das 198 pessoas vulneráveis, correspondendo a 93% da amostra, 164, ou seja, 77% deste grupo, tinham uma pontuação total igual ou superior a 7 em 10, revelando um grau elevado de vulnerabilidade. Conclusão: As variáveis preditoras da vulnerabilidade são a idade, quanto maior a idade maior a vulnerabilidade, e o ser-se viúvo. As variáveis preditoras da dificuldade na realização das actividades físicas (AF) são a idade e pessoa isolada em alojamento colectivo. Para as actividades de vida diária (AVD), as variáveis que demostram ser preditoras são a idade, pessoa isolada em alojamento colectivo e residir em agregado familiar de casal de idosos.----------------------- ABSTRACT:Objective: The present study has as its principal objective the characterization of individual vulnerability in community-dwelling older people. Methodology: This is a non-experimental study, exploratory, qualitative, quantitative, and cross-sectional in a probabilistic sample of simple randomization (n=213). Individual vulnerability was assessed using the instrument Vulnerable Elders Survey 13 and the other socio-demographic variables by questionnaire, both by telephone. Results: the sample was predominantly female, with a higher prevalence of persons with 75 or more years, widows, without education, mostly living alone and most of all with less than or equal to 485€ per month. Concerning vulnerability, in a random sample of 213 people, only 15 doesn´t present vulnerability, evaluated by the Vulnerable Elders Survey-13 (VES-13). Of the 198 people vulnerable, accounting for 93% of the sample, 164, i.e. 77% of this group, had a total score equal to or greater than 7 in 10, revealing a high degree of vulnerability. Conclusion: The predictors of vulnerability are the age, where higher the age means greater vulnerability as well as being a widow. The predictors of the difficulty in physical activities are old age and isolated persons in collective accommodation. For the activities of daily life, the variables that demonstrate as being predictors are old age, isolated persons in collective accommodation and living in elderly couple.

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Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao ISPA - Instituto Universitário

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Tese de Doutoramento apresentada ao ISPA - Instituto Universitário

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A avaliação de fornecedores é cada vez mais um processo bem definido dentro de organizações em que a qualidade dos fornecimentos é exigente. O mercado desenvolveu-se e evoluiu de forma a criar ligações mais próximas entre clientes e fornecedores, as relações de parceria entre ambas as partes são cada vez mais necessárias ao bom funcionamento das compras. Cada setor de atividade tem as suas particularidades, no entanto de forma geral todas as empresas avaliam com base no preço, prazos de entrega e qualidade dos produtos. No processo de compra, a escolha de um novo fornecedor é muitas vezes difícil pela inexistência de informação credível que sustente a adjudicação. O benchmarking das empresas é fundamental para a criação de um diretório com um ranking, que permite ao mercado contratar correndo menores riscos. O benchmarking resultante da avaliação de todas as empresas sobre todas as empresas só é possível quando as avaliações são resultantes da mesma base de critérios. Este estudo pretende identificar quais são os critérios mais usados pelo mercado, quais as importâncias que estes têm para as empresas em função do seu setor da atividade. A conclusão deste estudo irá alimentar a plataforma de avaliação e qualificação de fornecedores, BestSupplier, de forma a permitir ao mercado uma consulta mais clara e transparente. O estudo foi feito através de inquéritos realizados às empresas, onde resultaram dados que permitiram fazer uma análise de frequências, determinando assim quis os critérios mais usados de forma geral e as respetivas importâncias associadas. Complementarmente foi feita a análise de clusters, que permitiu perceber os comportamentos dos setores face às suas necessidades.

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RESUMO - Contexto: a avaliação da qualidade como tema potencialmente importante para utentes e prestadores de cuidados de saúde. A taxa de mortalidade como medida de resultados com um adequado ajustamento do risco. A existência de determinadas características estruturais do hospital às quais está associada uma menor mortalidade. Objectivos: identificar diferenças no desempenho e na taxa de mortalidade dos hospitais e investigar que características estruturais justificam essas diferenças. Metodologia: foram seleccionados os episódios de internamento das doenças de maior mortalidade hospitalar. A medida de desempenho considerada foi a comparação entre a mortalidade observada e a mortalidade esperada, calculada a partir da escala preditiva da mortalidade do Disease Staging, recalibrada para Portugal. A medida de desempenho foi analisada por hospital, doença e grupo de doenças. A ordenação dos hospitais pelo desempenho foi comparada com a ordenação dos hospitais pela taxa de mortalidade observada. O desempenho dentro de cada hospital foi analisado para um grupo de doenças seleccionadas. A relação entre o valor da medida de desempenho e as variáveis «número de episódios», «índice tecnológico» e «gravidade dos doentes tratados» foi analisada através da regressão linear para o conjunto dos episódios e para cada doença e grupo de doenças. Resultados: foram incluídos 379 074 episódios, agrupados em 21 doenças e 8 grupos de doenças e tratados em 81 hospitais. A taxa de mortalidade observada foi de 12%. Existiam diferenças no desempenho por hospital, alguns dos quais se destacam pelo seu melhor/pior nível de desempenho. Foram observadas as limitações da taxa de mortalidade bruta como instrumento de análise do desempenho, no contexto de hospitais com diferentes níveis de risco dos doentes tratados. Para além disso, evidenciou-se que a análise do hospital como um todo ou em cada uma das partes tem resultados distintos, dada a existência de diferentes níveis de desempenho dentro do hospital. Finalmente, verificou- se que a relação entre volume e desempenho, quando existe, é, na quase totalidade dos casos, não linear e inversa à referida na literatura.