959 resultados para probabilistic graphical model


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The early effects of clinical dose of cisplatin (100 mg/m(2)) on distort ion-product otoacoustic emissions (DPOAE) thresholds and the relationship between DPOAE threshold shifts and changes in plasma concentrations of filterable and total platinum (Pt) following infusion of cisplatin in a dog model were investigated. The DPOAE thresholds (based on input-output function) were measured 2 days before a single high dose of cisplatin administration, and compared with measurements recorded 2 and 4 days after infusion. The results revealed DPOAE thresholds to be elevated by 4 days after the administration of cisplatin. However, this elevation could not be correlated with plasma concentrations of filterable and total Pt, which showed little variation over the 48-hour postinfusion period between animals. The present study demonstrated that DPOAE thresholds have the potential to be used as an indicator of cisplatin-induced ototoxicity, and cisplatin-induced ototoxicity could not be explained by plasma Pt kinetics in individual animals.

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A comprehensive probabilistic model for simulating microstructure formation and evolution during solidification has been developed, based on coupling a Finite Differential Method (FDM) for macroscopic modelling of heat diffusion to a modified Cellular Automaton (mCA) for microscopic modelling of nucleation, growth of microstructures and solute diffusion. The mCA model is similar to Nastac's model for handling solute redistribution in the liquid and solid phases, curvature and growth anisotropy, but differs in the treatment of nucleation and growth. The aim is to improve understanding of the relationship between the solidification conditions and microstructure formation and evolution. A numerical algorithm used for FDM and mCA was developed. At each coarse scale, temperatures at FDM nodes were calculated while nucleation-growth simulation was done at a finer scale, with the temperature at the cell locations being interpolated from those at the coarser volumes. This model takes account of thermal, curvature and solute diffusion effects. Therefore, it can not only simulate microstructures of alloys both on the scale of grain size (macroscopic level) and the dendrite tip length (mesoscopic level), but also investigate nucleation mechanisms and growth kinetics of alloys solidified with various solute concentrations and solidification morphologies. The calculated results are compared with values of grain sizes and solidification morphologies of microstructures obtained from a set of casting experiments of Al-Si alloys in graphite crucibles.

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The present study examined the utility of a stress and coping model of adaptation to a homeless shelter among homeless adolescents. Seventy-eight homeless adolescents were interviewed and completed self-administered scales at Time 1 (day of shelter entry) and Time 2 (day of discharge). The mean duration of stay at the shelter was 7.23 days (SD = 7.01). Predictors included appraisal (threat and self-efficacy), coping resources, and coping strategies (productive, nonproductive, and reference to others coping). Adjustment outcomes were Time I measures of global distress, physical health, clinician-and youthworker- rated social adjustment, and externalizing behavior and Time 2 youthworker-rated social adjustment and goal achievement. Results of hierarchical regression analyses indicated that after controlling for the effects of relevant background variables (number of other shelters visited, sexual, emotional, and physical abuse), measures of coping resources, appraisal, and coping strategies evidenced distinct relations with measures of adjustment in ways consistent with the model's predictions with few exceptions. In cross-sectional analyses better Time I adjustment was related to reports of higher levels of coping resources, self-efficacy beliefs, and productive coping strategies, and reports of lower levels of threat appraisal and nonproductive coping strategies. Prospective analyses showed a link between reports of higher levels of reference to others coping strategies and greater goal achievement and, unexpectedly, an association between lower self-efficacy beliefs and better Time 2 youthworker-rated social adjustment. Hence, whereas prospective analyses provide only limited support for the use of a stress and coping model in explaining the adjustment of homeless adolescents to a crisis shelter, cross-sectional findings provide stronger support.

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Yield strength (YS) ageing curves have been modelled for A356 and A357 aluminium casting alloys below the solvus temperature of the main hardening precipitate. Predictions are based on the Shercliff and Ashby methodology (Acta MetaH. Mater. 38 (1990) 1789) for wrought alloys. Differences between strengthening in wrought and cast Al-Si-Mg alloys are considered. A Brinell hardness to YS conversion incorporating strain hardening has been established to enable YS ageing curves to be predicted with reduced experimental effort. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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The aim of this study was to determine how well Gray's model of personality [Gray, J.A. (1982). The neuropsychology of anxiety: an enquiry into the functions of the septo-hippocampal system. Oxfords: Oxford University Press, Gray, J.A. (1987). The psychology of fear and stress. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press], as measured by the Gray Wilson Personality Questionnaire (GWPQ), can provide a full description of personality as measured by the primary scales of the Eysenck Personality Profiler (EPP) and the type scales of the short version or the EPQ-R. Factor analysis of the GWPQ the Anxiety and linpulsivity scales of the EPP and the Learning Styles Questionnaire (LSQ) showed that the GWPQ seemed to measure general activation and inhibition factors, but not the finer features of Gray's theory. When the GWPQ scales were regressed against each scale of the EPP., it was round that they generally provide only a reasonable explanation of the EPP primary scales. It is concluded that the GWPQ measures general propel-ties of Gray's model, that the linpulsivity and Anxiety scales of the EPP also scent related to the GWPQ scales, and that Gray's model of personality provides only a partial explanation of personality in general. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is an easily automated, reliable technique to investigate axial mixing within rotating drums. Moist bran can be clearly differentiated from dry bran using MRI allowing a non-segregating tracer for axial mixing. For a 20-cm diameter drum, the axial dispersion coefficient in the particle bed was 0.51 cm s(-2). Axial dispersion is scale-dependent.

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Objectives: To compare the population modelling programs NONMEM and P-PHARM during investigation of the pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus in paediatric liver-transplant recipients. Methods: Population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed using NONMEM and P-PHARM on retrospective data from 35 paediatric liver-transplant patients receiving tacrolimus therapy. The same data were presented to both programs. Maximum likelihood estimates were sought for apparent clearance (CL/F) and apparent volume of distribution (V/F). Covariates screened for influence on these parameters were weight, age, gender, post-operative day, days of tacrolimus therapy, transplant type, biliary reconstructive procedure, liver function tests, creatinine clearance, haematocrit, corticosteroid dose, and potential interacting drugs. Results: A satisfactory model was developed in both programs with a single categorical covariate - transplant type - providing stable parameter estimates and small, normally distributed (weighted) residuals. In NONMEM, the continuous covariates - age and liver function tests - improved modelling further. Mean parameter estimates were CL/F (whole liver) = 16.3 1/h, CL/F (cut-down liver) = 8.5 1/h and V/F = 565 1 in NONMEM, and CL/F = 8.3 1/h and V/F = 155 1 in P-PHARM. Individual Bayesian parameter estimates were CL/F (whole liver) = 17.9 +/- 8.8 1/h, CL/F (cutdown liver) = 11.6 +/- 18.8 1/h and V/F = 712 792 1 in NONMEM, and CL/F (whole liver) = 12.8 +/- 3.5 1/h, CL/F (cut-down liver) = 8.2 +/- 3.4 1/h and V/F = 221 1641 in P-PHARM. Marked interindividual kinetic variability (38-108%) and residual random error (approximately 3 ng/ml) were observed. P-PHARM was more user friendly and readily provided informative graphical presentation of results. NONMEM allowed a wider choice of errors for statistical modelling and coped better with complex covariate data sets. Conclusion: Results from parametric modelling programs can vary due to different algorithms employed to estimate parameters, alternative methods of covariate analysis and variations and limitations in the software itself.

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This article extends earlier research regarding the relationships between senior travelers’ participation in activities while on vacation, their overall satisfaction with their travel experiences, and their psychological well-being. A path model was developed to depict the direct and indirect relationships between these variables by using a sample of senior tourists traveling on North American escorted tour itineraries. Whereas the direct effect accounted for 98% of the relationships between the senior tourists’ levels of participation in activities and their psychological well-being, the indirect effect was negligible. The study concluded that senior tourists’activity levels were significantly related to their psychological well-being, but their satisfaction with the tours was not.

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This paper addresses robust model-order reduction of a high dimensional nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) model of a complex biological process. Based on a nonlinear, distributed parameter model of the same process which was validated against experimental data of an existing, pilot-scale BNR activated sludge plant, we developed a state-space model with 154 state variables in this work. A general algorithm for robustly reducing the nonlinear PDE model is presented and based on an investigation of five state-of-the-art model-order reduction techniques, we are able to reduce the original model to a model with only 30 states without incurring pronounced modelling errors. The Singular perturbation approximation balanced truncating technique is found to give the lowest modelling errors in low frequency ranges and hence is deemed most suitable for controller design and other real-time applications. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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We investigate spectral functions extracted using the maximum entropy method from correlators measured in lattice simulations of the (2+1)-dimensional four-fermion model. This model is particularly interesting because it has both a chirally broken phase with a rich spectrum of mesonic bound states and a symmetric phase where there are only resonances. In the broken phase we study the elementary fermion, pion, sigma, and massive pseudoscalar meson; our results confirm the Goldstone nature of the π and permit an estimate of the meson binding energy. We have, however, seen no signal of σ→ππ decay as the chiral limit is approached. In the symmetric phase we observe a resonance of nonzero width in qualitative agreement with analytic expectations; in addition the ultraviolet behavior of the spectral functions is consistent with the large nonperturbative anomalous dimension for fermion composite operators expected in this model.

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Seasonal climate forecasting offers potential for improving management of crop production risks in the cropping systems of NE Australia. But how is this capability best connected to management practice? Over the past decade, we have pursued participative systems approaches involving simulation-aided discussion with advisers and decision-makers. This has led to the development of discussion support software as a key vehicle for facilitating infusion of forecasting capability into practice. In this paper, we set out the basis of our approach, its implementation and preliminary evaluation. We outline the development of the discussion support software Whopper Cropper, which was designed for, and in close consultation with, public and private advisers. Whopper Cropper consists of a database of simulation output and a graphical user interface to generate analyses of risks associated with crop management options. The charts produced provide conversation pieces for advisers to use with their farmer clients in relation to the significant decisions they face. An example application, detail of the software development process and an initial survey of user needs are presented. We suggest that discussion support software is about moving beyond traditional notions of supply-driven decision support systems. Discussion support software is largely demand-driven and can compliment participatory action research programs by providing cost-effective general delivery of simulation-aided discussions about relevant management actions. The critical role of farm management advisers and dialogue among key players is highlighted. We argue that the discussion support concept, as exemplified by the software tool Whopper Cropper and the group processes surrounding it, provides an effective means to infuse innovations, like seasonal climate forecasting, into farming practice. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The Agricultural Production Systems slMulator, APSIM, is a cropping system modelling environment that simulates the dynamics of soil-plant-management interactions within a single crop or a cropping system. Adaptation of previously developed crop models has resulted in multiple crop modules in APSIM, which have low scientific transparency and code efficiency. A generic crop model template (GCROP) has been developed to capture unifying physiological principles across crops (plant types) and to provide modular and efficient code for crop modelling. It comprises a standard crop interface to the APSIM engine, a generic crop model structure, a crop process library, and well-structured crop parameter files. The process library contains the major science underpinning the crop models and incorporates generic routines based on physiological principles for growth and development processes that are common across crops. It allows APSIM to simulate different crops using the same set of computer code. The generic model structure and parameter files provide an easy way to test, modify, exchange and compare modelling approaches at process level without necessitating changes in the code. The standard interface generalises the model inputs and outputs, and utilises a standard protocol to communicate with other APSIM modules through the APSIM engine. The crop template serves as a convenient means to test new insights and compare approaches to component modelling, while maintaining a focus on predictive capability. This paper describes and discusses the scientific basis, the design, implementation and future development of the crop template in APSIM. On this basis, we argue that the combination of good software engineering with sound crop science can enhance the rate of advance in crop modelling. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.