Predicting the temporal response of seagrass meadows to dredging using Dynamic Bayesian Networks

Predicting temporal responses of ecosystems to disturbances associated with industrial activities is critical for their management and conservation. However, prediction of ecosystem responses is challenging due to the complexity and potential non-linearities stemming from interactions between system components and multiple environmental drivers. Prediction is particularly difficult for marine ecosystems due to their often highly variable and complex natures and large uncertainties surrounding their dynamic responses. Consequently, current management of such systems often rely on expert judgement and/or complex quantitative models that consider only a subset of the relevant ecological processes. Hence there exists an urgent need for the development of whole-of-systems predictive models to support decision and policy makers in managing complex marine systems in the context of industry based disturbances. This paper presents Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) for predicting the temporal response of a marine ecosystem to anthropogenic disturbances. The DBN provides a visual representation of the problem domain in terms of factors (parts of the ecosystem) and their relationships. These relationships are quantified via Conditional Probability Tables (CPTs), which estimate the variability and uncertainty in the distribution of each factor. The combination of qualitative visual and quantitative elements in a DBN facilitates the integration of a wide array of data, published and expert knowledge and other models. Such multiple sources are often essential as one single source of information is rarely sufficient to cover the diverse range of factors relevant to a management task. Here, a DBN model is developed for tropical, annual Halophila and temperate, persistent Amphibolis seagrass meadows to inform dredging management and help meet environmental guidelines. Specifically, the impacts of capital (e.g. new port development) and maintenance (e.g. maintaining channel depths in established ports) dredging is evaluated with respect to the risk of permanent loss, defined as no recovery within 5 years (Environmental Protection Agency guidelines). The model is developed using expert knowledge, existing literature, statistical models of environmental light, and experimental data. The model is then demonstrated in a case study through the analysis of a variety of dredging, environmental and seagrass ecosystem recovery scenarios. In spatial zones significantly affected by dredging, such as the zone of moderate impact, shoot density has a very high probability of being driven to zero by capital dredging due to the duration of such dredging. Here, fast growing Halophila species can recover, however, the probability of recovery depends on the presence of seed banks. On the other hand, slow growing Amphibolis meadows have a high probability of suffering permanent loss. However, in the maintenance dredging scenario, due to the shorter duration of dredging, Amphibolis is better able to resist the impacts of dredging. For both types of seagrass meadows, the probability of loss was strongly dependent on the biological and ecological status of the meadow, as well as environmental conditions post-dredging. The ability to predict the ecosystem response under cumulative, non-linear interactions across a complex ecosystem highlights the utility of DBNs for decision support and environmental management.

Compact fiber Bragg grating dynamic strain sensor cum broadband thermometer for thermally unstable ambience

An instrument for simultaneous measurement of dynamic strain and temperature in a thermally unstable ambience has been proposed, based on fiber Bragg grating technology. The instrument can function as a compact and stand-alone broadband thermometer and a dynamic strain gauge. It employs a source wavelength tracking procedure for linear dependence of the output on the measurand, offering high dynamic range. Two schemes have been demonstrated with their relative merits. As a thermometer, the present instrumental configuration can offer a linear response in excess of 500 degrees C that can be easily extended by adding a suitable grating and source without any alteration in the procedure. Temperature sensitivity is about 0.06 degrees C for a bandwidth of 1 Hz. For the current grating, the upper limit of strain measurement is about 150 mu epsilon with a sensitivity of about 80 n epsilon Hz(-1/2). The major source of uncertainty associated with dynamic strain measurement is the laser source intensity noise, which is of broad spectral band. A low noise source device or the use of optical power regulators can offer improved performance. The total harmonic distortion is less than 0.5% up to about 50 mu epsilon, 1.2% at 100 mu epsilon and about 2.3% at 150 mu epsilon. Calibrated results of temperature and strain measurement with the instrument have been presented. Traces of ultrasound signals recorded by the system at 200 kHz, in an ambience of 100-200 degrees C temperature fluctuation, have been included. Also, the vibration spectrum and engine temperature of a running internal combustion engine has been recorded as a realistic application of the system.

On-line Dynamic Security Assessment: Determination of Critical Transmission Lines

The main objective of on-line dynamic security assessment is to take preventive action if required or decide remedial action if a contingency actually occurs. Stability limits are obtained for different contingencies. The mode of instability is one of the outputs of dynamic security analysis. When a power system becomes unstable, it splits initially into two groups of generators, and there is a unique cutset in the transmission network known as critical cutset across which the angles become unbounded. The knowledge of critical cutset is additional information obtained from dynamic security assessment, which can be used for initiating preventive control actions, deciding emergency control actions, and adaptive out-of-step relaying. In this article, an analytical technique for the fast prediction of the critical cutset by system simulation for a short duration is presented. Case studies on the New England ten-generator system are presented. The article also suggests the applications of the identification of critical cutsets.

Randomised Evaluation of New Technologies within the Population‐Based Cervical Cancer Screening Programme in Finland: Cross‐Sectional Performance and Validity

A randomised and population-based screening design with new technologies has been applied to the organised cervical cancer screening programme in Finland. In this experiment the women invited to routine five-yearly screening are individually randomised to be screened with automation-assisted cytology, human papillomavirus (HPV) test or conventional cytology. By using the randomised design, the ultimate aim is to assess and compare the long-term outcomes of the different screening regimens. The primary aim of the current study was to evaluate, based on the material collected during the implementation phase of the Finnish randomised screening experiment, the cross-sectional performance and validity of automation-assisted cytology (Papnet system) and primary HPV DNA testing (Hybrid Capture II assay for 13 oncogenic HPV types) within service screening, in comparison to conventional cytology. The parameters of interest were test positivity rate, histological detection rate, relative sensitivity, relative specificity and positive predictive value. Also, the effect of variation in performance by screening laboratory on age-adjusted cervical cancer incidence was assessed. Based on the cross-sectional results, almost no differences were observed in the performance of conventional and automation-assisted screening. Instead, primary HPV screening found 58% (95% confidence interval 19-109%) more cervical lesions than conventional screening. However, this was mainly due to overrepresentation of mild- and moderate-grade lesions and, thus, is likely to result in overtreatment since a great deal of these lesions would never progress to invasive cancer. Primary screening with an HPV DNA test alone caused substantial loss in specificity in comparison to cytological screening. With the use of cytology triage test, the specificity of HPV screening improved close to the level of conventional cytology. The specificity of primary HPV screening was also increased by increasing the test positivity cutoff from the level recommended for clinical use, but the increase was more modest than the one gained with the use of cytology triage. The performance of the cervical cancer screening programme varied widely between the screening laboratories, but the variation in overall programme effectiveness between respective populations was more marginal from the very beginning of the organised screening activity. Thus, conclusive interpretations on the quality or success of screening should not be based on performance parameters only. In the evaluation of cervical cancer screening the outcome should be selected as closely as possible to the true measure of programme effectiveness, which is the number of invasive cervical cancers and subsequent deaths prevented in the target population. The evaluation of benefits and adverse effects of each new suggested screening technology should be performed before the technology becomes an accepted routine in the existing screening programme. At best, the evaluation is performed randomised, within the population and screening programme in question, which makes the results directly applicable to routine use.

Spirometric studies on the adult general population of Helsinki : bronchodilation responses, determinants, and intrasession repeatability of FEV1, FEV6, FVC, and forced expiratory time

Spirometry is the most widely used lung function test in the world. It is fundamental in diagnostic and functional evaluation of various pulmonary diseases. In the studies described in this thesis, the spirometric assessment of reversibility of bronchial obstruction, its determinants, and variation features are described in a general population sample from Helsinki, Finland. This study is a part of the FinEsS study, which is a collaborative study of clinical epidemiology of respiratory health between Finland (Fin), Estonia (Es), and Sweden (S). Asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) constitute the two major obstructive airways diseases. The prevalence of asthma has increased, with around 6% of the population in Helsinki reporting physician-diagnosed asthma. The main cause of COPD is smoking with changes in smoking habits in the population affecting its prevalence with a delay. Whereas airway obstruction in asthma is by definition reversible, COPD is characterized by fixed obstruction. Cough and sputum production, the first symptoms of COPD, are often misinterpreted for smokers cough and not recognized as first signs of a chronic illness. Therefore COPD is widely underdiagnosed. More extensive use of spirometry in primary care is advocated to focus smoking cessation interventions on populations at risk. The use of forced expiratory volume in six seconds (FEV6) instead of forced vital capacity (FVC) has been suggested to enable office spirometry to be used in earlier detection of airflow limitation. Despite being a widely accepted standard method of assessment of lung function, the methodology and interpretation of spirometry are constantly developing. In 2005, the ATS/ERS Task Force issued a joint statement which endorsed the 12% and 200 ml thresholds for significant change in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) or FVC during bronchodilation testing, but included the notion that in cases where only FVC improves it should be verified that this is not caused by a longer exhalation time in post-bronchodilator spirometry. This elicited new interest in the assessment of forced expiratory time (FET), a spirometric variable not usually reported or used in assessment. In this population sample, we examined FET and found it to be on average 10.7 (SD 4.3) s and to increase with ageing and airflow limitation in spirometry. The intrasession repeatability of FET was the poorest of the spirometric variables assessed. Based on the intrasession repeatability, a limit for significant change of 3 s was suggested for FET during bronchodilation testing. FEV6 was found to perform equally well as FVC in the population and in a subgroup of subjects with airways obstruction. In the bronchodilation test, decreases were frequently observed in FEV1 and particularly in FVC. The limit of significant increase based on the 95th percentile of the population sample was 9% for FEV1 and 6% for FEV6 and FVC; these are slightly lower than the current limits for single bronchodilation tests (ATS/ERS guidelines). FEV6 was proven as a valid alternative to FVC also in the bronchodilation test and would remove the need to control duration of exhalation during the spirometric bronchodilation test.

Reduced visual function and its association with physical functioning in the Finnish adult population : Prevalence, causes, and need for eye care services

The purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence and distribution of reduced visual acuity, major chronic eye diseases, and subsequent need for eye care services in the Finnish adult population comprising persons aged 30 years and older. In addition, we analyzed the effect of decreased vision on functioning and need for assistance using the World Health Organization’s (WHO) International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF) as a framework. The study was based on the Health 2000 health examination survey, a nationally representative population-based comprehensive survey of health and functional capacity carried out in 2000 to 2001 in Finland. The study sample representing the Finnish population aged 30 years and older was drawn by a two-stage stratified cluster sampling. The Health 2000 survey included a home interview and a comprehensive health examination conducted at a nearby screening center. If the invited participants did not attend, an abridged examination was conducted at home or in an institution. Based on our finding in participants, the great majority (96%) of Finnish adults had at least moderate visual acuity (VA ≥ 0.5) with current refraction correction, if any. However, in the age group 75–84 years the prevalence decreased to 81%, and after 85 years to 46%. In the population aged 30 years and older, the prevalence of habitual visual impairment (VA ≤ 0.25) was 1.6%, and 0.5% were blind (VA < 0.1). The prevalence of visual impairment increased significantly with age (p < 0.001), and after the age of 65 years the increase was sharp. Visual impairment was equally common for both sexes (OR 1.20, 95% CI 0.82 – 1.74). Based on self-reported and/or register-based data, the estimated total prevalences of cataract, glaucoma, age-related maculopathy (ARM), and diabetic retinopathy (DR) in the study population were 10%, 5%, 4%, and 1%, respectively. The prevalence of all of these chronic eye diseases increased with age (p < 0.001). Cataract and glaucoma were more common in women than in men (OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.26 – 1.91 and OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.24 – 1.98, respectively). The most prevalent eye diseases in people with visual impairment (VA ≤ 0.25) were ARM (37%), unoperated cataract (27%), glaucoma (22%), and DR (7%). One-half (58%) of visually impaired people had had a vision examination during the past five years, and 79% had received some vision rehabilitation services, mainly in the form of spectacles (70%). Only one-third (31%) had received formal low vision rehabilitation (i.e., fitting of low vision aids, receiving patient education, training for orientation and mobility, training for activities of daily living (ADL), or consultation with a social worker). People with low vision (VA 0.1 – 0.25) were less likely to have received formal low vision rehabilitation, magnifying glasses, or other low vision aids than blind people (VA < 0.1). Furthermore, low cognitive capacity and living in an institution were associated with limited use of vision rehabilitation services. Of the visually impaired living in the community, 71% reported a need for assistance and 24% had an unmet need for assistance in everyday activities. Prevalence of ADL, instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), and mobility increased with decreasing VA (p < 0.001). Visually impaired persons (VA ≤ 0.25) were four times more likely to have ADL disabilities than those with good VA (VA ≥ 0.8) after adjustment for sociodemographic and behavioral factors and chronic conditions (OR 4.36, 95% CI 2.44 – 7.78). Limitations in IADL and measured mobility were five times as likely (OR 4.82, 95% CI 2.38 – 9.76 and OR 5.37, 95% CI 2.44 – 7.78, respectively) and self-reported mobility limitations were three times as likely (OR 3.07, 95% CI 1.67 – 9.63) as in persons with good VA. The high prevalence of age-related eye diseases and subsequent visual impairment in the fastest growing segment of the population will result in a substantial increase in the demand for eye care services in the future. Many of the visually impaired, especially older persons with decreased cognitive capacity or living in an institution, have not had a recent vision examination and lack adequate low vision rehabilitation. This highlights the need for regular evaluation of visual function in the elderly and an active dissemination of information about rehabilitation services. Decreased VA is strongly associated with functional limitations, and even a slight decrease in VA was found to be associated with limited functioning. Thus, continuous efforts are needed to identify and treat eye diseases to maintain patients’ quality of life and to alleviate the social and economic burden of serious eye diseases.

A Kalman filter based strategy for linear structural system identification based on multiple static and dynamic test data

The problem of identification of stiffness, mass and damping properties of linear structural systems, based on multiple sets of measurement data originating from static and dynamic tests is considered. A strategy, within the framework of Kalman filter based dynamic state estimation, is proposed to tackle this problem. The static tests consists of measurement of response of the structure to slowly moving loads, and to static loads whose magnitude are varied incrementally; the dynamic tests involve measurement of a few elements of the frequency response function (FRF) matrix. These measurements are taken to be contaminated by additive Gaussian noise. An artificial independent variable τ, that simultaneously parameterizes the point of application of the moving load, the magnitude of the incrementally varied static load and the driving frequency in the FRFs, is introduced. The state vector is taken to consist of system parameters to be identified. The fact that these parameters are independent of the variable τ is taken to constitute the set of ‘process’ equations. The measurement equations are derived based on the mechanics of the problem and, quantities, such as displacements and/or strains, are taken to be measured. A recursive algorithm that employs a linearization strategy based on Neumann’s expansion of structural static and dynamic stiffness matrices, and, which provides posterior estimates of the mean and covariance of the unknown system parameters, is developed. The satisfactory performance of the proposed approach is illustrated by considering the problem of the identification of the dynamic properties of an inhomogeneous beam and the axial rigidities of members of a truss structure.

An optimal dynamic inversion-based neuro-adaptive approach for treatment of chronic myelogenous leukemia

Combining the advanced techniques of optimal dynamic inversion and model-following neuro-adaptive control design, an innovative technique is presented to design an automatic drug administration strategy for effective treatment of chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML). A recently developed nonlinear mathematical model for cell dynamics is used to design the controller (medication dosage). First, a nominal controller is designed based on the principle of optimal dynamic inversion. This controller can treat the nominal model patients (patients who can be described by the mathematical model used here with the nominal parameter values) effectively. However, since the system parameters for a realistic model patient can be different from that of the nominal model patients, simulation studies for such patients indicate that the nominal controller is either inefficient or, worse, ineffective; i.e. the trajectory of the number of cancer cells either shows non-satisfactory transient behavior or it grows in an unstable manner. Hence, to make the drug dosage history more realistic and patient-specific, a model-following neuro-adaptive controller is augmented to the nominal controller. In this adaptive approach, a neural network trained online facilitates a new adaptive controller. The training process of the neural network is based on Lyapunov stability theory, which guarantees both stability of the cancer cell dynamics as well as boundedness of the network weights. From simulation studies, this adaptive control design approach is found to be very effective to treat the CML disease for realistic patients. Sufficient generality is retained in the mathematical developments so that the technique can be applied to other similar nonlinear control design problems as well.

A new framework for solution of multidimensional population balance equations

A new framework is proposed in this work to solve multidimensional population balance equations (PBEs) using the method of discretization. A continuous PBE is considered as a statement of evolution of one evolving property of particles and conservation of their n internal attributes. Discretization must therefore preserve n + I properties of particles. Continuously distributed population is represented on discrete fixed pivots as in the fixed pivot technique of Kumar and Ramkrishna [1996a. On the solution of population balance equation by discretization-I A fixed pivot technique. Chemical Engineering Science 51(8), 1311-1332] for 1-d PBEs, but instead of the earlier extensions of this technique proposed in the literature which preserve 2(n) properties of non-pivot particles, the new framework requires n + I properties to be preserved. This opens up the use of triangular and tetrahedral elements to solve 2-d and 3-d PBEs, instead of the rectangles and cuboids that are suggested in the literature. Capabilities of computational fluid dynamics and other packages available for generating complex meshes can also be harnessed. The numerical results obtained indeed show the effectiveness of the new framework. It also brings out the hitherto unknown role of directionality of the grid in controlling the accuracy of the numerical solution of multidimensional PBEs. The numerical results obtained show that the quality of the numerical solution can be improved significantly just by altering the directionality of the grid, which does not require any increase in the number of points, or any refinement of the grid, or even redistribution of pivots in space. Directionality of a grid can be altered simply by regrouping of pivots.

Conjunctival Melanoma in Finland 1967-2000: a population-based study

Eighty-five new cases of conjunctival melanoma (CM) were diagnosed in Finland between 1967 and 2000. The annual crude incidence of CM was 0.51 per million inhabitants. The average age-adjusted incidence of 0.54 doubled during the study period, analogous to the increase in the incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma during this period, suggesting a possible role for ultraviolet radiation in its pathogenesis. Nonlimbal tumors were more likely than limbal ones to recur and they were associated with decreased survival. Increasing tumor thickness and recurrence of the primary tumor were other clinical factors related to death from CM. The histopathologic specimens of 85 patients with CM melanoma were studied for cell type, mitotic count, tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes and macrophages, mean vascular density, extravascular matrix loops and networks, and mean diameter of the ten largest nucleoli (MLN). The absence of epithelioid cells, increasing mitotic count and small MLN were associated with shorter time to recurrence according to the Cox univariate regression. None of the histopathologic variables was associated with mortality from CM. Four (5%) patients had a CM limited to the cornea without evidence of a tumor other than primary acquired melanosis of the conjunctiva. Because there are no melanocytes in the cornea, the origin of these melanomas most likely is the limbal conjunctiva. All four corneally displaced CM were limited to the epithelium, and none of the patients developed metastases. An anatomic sub-classification based on my patients and world literature was developed for corneally displaced CM. In 20 patients the metastatic pattern could be determined. Ten patients had initial systemic metastases detected, nine had initial regional metastases, and in one case the two types were detected simultaneously. The patients most likely to develop either type of initial metastases were those with nonlimbal conjunctival melanoma, those with a primary tumor more than 2 mm thick, and those with a recurrent conjunctival melanoma. Approximately two thirds of the patients had limbal CM, a location associated with good prognosis. One third, however, had a primary CM originating outside the limbus. In these patients the chance of developing local recurrences as well as systemic metastases was significantly higher than in patients with limbal CM. Each recurrence accompanies an increased risk of developing metastases, and recurrences contribute to death along with increasing tumor thickness and nonlimbal tumor location. In my data, an equal number of patients with initial locoregional and systemic metastasis existed. Patients with limbal primary tumors less than 2 mm in thickness rarely experienced metastases, unless the tumor recurred. Consequently, the patients most likely to benefit from sentinel lymph node biopsy are those who have nonlimbal tumors, CM that are over 2 mm thick, or recurrent CM. The histopathology of CM differs from that of uveal melanoma. Microvascular factors did not prove to be of prognostic importance, possibly due to the fact that CM at least as often disseminates first to the regional lymph nodes, unlike uveal melanoma that almost always disseminates hematogenously.

Additively manufactured device for dynamic culture of large arrays of 3D tissue engineered constructs

The ability to test large arrays of cell and biomaterial combinations in 3D environments is still rather limited in the context of tissue engineering and regenerative medicine. This limitation can be generally addressed by employing highly automated and reproducible methodologies. This study reports on the development of a highly versatile and upscalable method based on additive manufacturing for the fabrication of arrays of scaffolds, which are enclosed into individualized perfusion chambers. Devices containing eight scaffolds and their corresponding bioreactor chambers are simultaneously fabricated utilizing a dual extrusion additive manufacturing system. To demonstrate the versatility of the concept, the scaffolds, while enclosed into the device, are subsequently surface-coated with a biomimetic calcium phosphate layer by perfusion with simulated body fluid solution. 96 scaffolds are simultaneously seeded and cultured with human osteoblasts under highly controlled bidirectional perfusion dynamic conditions over 4 weeks. Both coated and noncoated resulting scaffolds show homogeneous cell distribution and high cell viability throughout the 4 weeks culture period and CaP-coated scaffolds result in a significantly increased cell number. The methodology developed in this work exemplifies the applicability of additive manufacturing as a tool for further automation of studies in the field of tissue engineering and regenerative medicine.

Assessment of Risk for Type 1 Diabetes in Children of Affected Families and in the General Population : Role of Immunological and Metabolic Markers

Background and aims. Type 1 diabetes (T1D), an autoimmune disease in which the insulin producing beta cells are gradually destroyed, is preceded by a prodromal phase characterized by appearance of diabetes-associated autoantibodies in circulation. Both the timing of the appearance of autoantibodies and their quality have been used in the prediction of T1D among first-degree relatives of diabetic patients (FDRs). So far, no general strategies for identifying individuals at increased disease risk in the general population have been established, although the majority of new cases originate in this population. The current work aimed at assessing the predictive role of diabetes-associated immunologic and metabolic risk factors in the general population, and comparing these factors with data obtained from studies on FDRs. Subjects and methods. Study subjects in the current work were subcohorts of participants of the Childhood Diabetes in Finland Study (DiMe; n=755), the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study (LASERI; n=3475), and the Finnish Type 1 Diabetes Prediction and Prevention Study (DIPP) Study subjects (n=7410). These children were observed for signs of beta-cell autoimmunity and progression to T1D, and the results obtained were compared between the FDRs and the general population cohorts. --- Results and conclusions. By combining HLA and autoantibody screening, T1D risks similar to those reported for autoantibody-positive FDRs are observed in the pediatric general population. Progression rate to T1D is high in genetically susceptible children with persistent multipositivity. Measurement of IAA affinity failed in stratifying the risk assessment in young IAA-positive children with HLA-conferred disease susceptibility, among whom affinity of IAA did not increase during the prediabetic period. Young age at seroconversion, increased weight-for-height, decreased early insulin response, and increased IAA and IA-2A levels predict T1D in young children with genetic disease susceptibility and signs of advanced beta-cell autoimmunity. Since the incidence of T1D continues to increase, efforts aimed at preventing T1D are important, and reliable disease prediction is needed both for intervention trials and for effective and safe preventive therapies in the future. Our observations confirmed that combined HLA-based screening and regular autoantibody measurements reveal similar disease risks in pediatric general population as those seen in prediabetic FDRs, and that risk assessment can be stratified further by studying glucose metabolism of prediabetic subjects. As these screening efforts are feasible in practice, the knowledge now obtained can be exploited while designing intervention trials aimed at secondary prevention of T1D.

Irritable bowel syndrome in the general population : epidemiology, comorbidity and societal costs

Background: Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is a common functional gastrointestinal (GI) disorder characterised by abdominal pain and abnormal bowel function. It is associated with a high rate of healthcare consumption and significant health care costs. The prevalence and economic burden of IBS in Finland has not been studied before. The aims of this study were to assess the prevalence of IBS according to various diagnostic criteria and to study the rates of psychiatric and somatic comorbidity in IBS. In addition, health care consumption and societal costs of IBS were to be evaluated. Methods: The study was a two-phase postal survey. Questionnaire I identifying IBS by Manning 2 (at least two of the six Manning symptoms), Manning 3 (at least three Manning symptoms), Rome I, and Rome II criteria, was mailed to a random sample of 5 000 working age subjects. It also covered extra-GI symptoms such as headache, back pain, and depression. Questionnaire II, covering rates of physician visits, and use of GI medication, was sent to subjects fulfilling Manning 2 or Rome II IBS criteria in Questionnaire I. Results: The response rate was 73% and 86% for questionnaires I and II. The prevalence of IBS was 15.9%, 9.6%, 5.6%, and 5.1% according to Manning 2, Manning 3, Rome I, and Rome II criteria. Of those meeting Rome II criteria, 97% also met Manning 2 criteria. Presence of severe abdominal pain was more often reported by subjects meeting either of the Rome criteria than those meeting either of the Manning criteria. Presence of depression, anxiety, and several somatic symptoms was more common among subjects meeting any IBS criterion than by controls. Of subjects with depressive symptoms, 11.6% met Rome II IBS criteria compared to 3.7% of those with no depressiveness. Subjects meeting any IBS criteria made more physician visits than controls. Intensity of GI symptoms and presence of dyspeptic symptoms were the strongest predictors of GI consultations. Presence of dyspeptic symptoms and a history of abdominal pain in childhood also predicted non-GI visits. Annual GI related individual costs were higher in the Rome II group (497 ) than in the Manning 2 group (295 ). Direct expenses of GI symptoms and non GI physician visits ranged between 98M for Rome II and 230M for Manning 2 criteria. Conclusions: The prevalence of IBS varies substantially depending on the criteria applied. Rome II criteria are more restrictive than Manning 2, and they identify an IBS population with more severe GI symptoms, more frequent health care use, and higher individual health care costs. Subjects with IBS demonstrate high rates of psychiatric and somatic comorbidity regardless of health care seeking status. Perceived symptom severity rather than psychiatric comorbidity predicts health care seeking for GI symptoms. IBS incurs considerable medical costs. The direct GI and non-GI costs are equivalent to up to 5% of outpatient health care and medicine costs in Finland. A more integral approach to IBS by physicians, accounting also for comorbid conditions, may produce a more favourable course in IBS patients and reduce health care expenditures.

Seismic damage estimation through measurable dynamic characteristics

Ductility based design of reinforced concrete structures implicitly assumes certain damage under the action of a design basis earthquake. The damage undergone by a structure needs to be quantified, so as to assess the post-seismic reparability and functionality of the structure. The paper presents an analytical method of quantification and location of seismic damage, through system identification methods. It may be noted that soft ground storied buildings are the major casualties in any earthquake and hence the example structure is a soft or weak first storied one, whose seismic response and temporal variation of damage are computed using a non-linear dynamic analysis program (IDARC) and compared with a normal structure. Time period based damage identification model is used and suitably calibrated with classic damage models. Regenerated stiffness of the three degrees of freedom model (for the three storied frame) is used to locate the damage, both on-line as well as after the seismic event. Multi resolution analysis using wavelets is also used for localized damage identification for soft storey columns.

A dynamic renormalization group study of active nematics

We carry out a systematic construction of the coarse-grained dynamical equation of motion for the orientational order parameter for a two-dimensional active nematic, that is a nonequilibrium steady state with uniaxial, apolar orientational order. Using the dynamical renormalization group, we show that the leading nonlinearities in this equation are marginally irrelevant. We discover a special limit of parameters in which the equation of motion for the angle field bears a close relation to the 2d stochastic Burgers equation. We find nevertheless that, unlike for the Burgers problem, the nonlinearity is marginally irrelevant even in this special limit, as a result of a hidden fluctuation-dissipation relation. 2d active nematics therefore have quasi-long-range order, just like their equilibrium counterparts.