timng of the last glacial maximum from observed sea level minima

During the Last Glacial Maximum, ice sheets covered large areas in northern latitudes, and global temperatures were significantly lower than today. But few direct estimates exist of the volume of the ice sheets, or the timing and rates of change during their advance and retreat. Here we analyze four distinct sediment facies in the shallow, tectonically stable Bonaparte Gulf, Australia - each of which is characteristic of a distinct range in sea level - to estimate the maximum volume of land-based ice during the last glaciation and the timing of the initial melting phase. We use faunal assemblages and preservation status of the sediments to distinguish open marine, shallow marine, marginal marine and brackish conditions, and estimate the timing and the mass of the ice sheets using radiocarbon dating and glacio-hydroisostatic modelling. Our results indicate that from at least 22,000 to 19,000 (calendar) years before present, land-based ice volume was at its maximum, exceeding today's grounded ice sheets by 52.5 x 10 exp 6 cu km. A rapid decrease in ice volume by about 10 percent within a few hundred years terminated the Last Glacial Maximum at 19,000 +/- 250 years.

Gas hydrate associated with mud diapirs in southern Okinawa Trough

Many mud diapirs have been recognized in southern Okinawa Trough by a multi-channel seismic surveying on R/V KEXUE I in 2001. Gas hydrates have been identified, by the seismic reflection characteristics, the velocity analysis and the impedance inversion. Geothermal heat flow around the central of the mud diapir has been determined theoretically by the Bottom Simulating Reflectors (BSRs). Comparing the BSR derived and the measured heat flow values, we infer that the BSR immediately at the top of the mud diapirs indicate the base of the saturated gas hydrate formation zone (BSGHFZ), but not, as we ordinarily know, the base of the gas hydrate stability zone (BGHSZ), which could be explained by the abnormal regional background heat flow and free gas flux associated with mud diapirs. As a result, it helps us to better understand the generation mechanism of the gas hydrates associated with mud diapirs and to predict the gas hydrate potential in the southern Okinawa Trough. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fine-grained Pleistocene deepwater turbidite channel system on the slope of Qiongdongnan Basin, northern South China Sea

Recently, as oil exploitation has become focused on deepwater slope areas. more multi-channel high resolution 2D and 3D seismic data were acquired in the deepwater part of the Qiongdongnan Basin, northern South China Sea. Based on 3D seismic data and coherence time slice, RMS and 3D visualization, a series of deepwater channels were recognized on the slope that probably developed in the late Quaternary period. These channels trend SW-NE to W-E and show bifurcations, levees, meander loops and avulsions. High Amplitude Reflections (HARs), typical for channel-levee complexes, are of only minor importance and were observed in one of the channel systems. Most of the detected channels are characterized by low-amplitude reflections, and so are different from the typical coarse-grained turbidite channels that had been discovered worldwide. The absence of well data in the study area made it difficult to determine the age and lithology of these channels. Using a neighboring drill hole and published data about such depositional systems worldwide, the lithology of these channels is likely to be dominated by mudstones with interbedded thin sandstones. These channels are formed by turbidity currents originated from the little scale mountain river of mid-Vietnam in SW direction and were probably accompanied by a relative sea level drop in the last glacial age. These channels discovered on the northern South China Sea slope are likely to be fine-grained, mud-dominant and low N:G deposits in a deepwater paleogeographic setting. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gas hydrate occurrence on the continental slope of the northern South China Sea

High-resolution multi-channel seismic data and geological samples were collected during two research cruises of the R/V FENDOU 4 in 1999 and 2000. Studies on these data and samples together with results from sites 1143-1145 and 1148 of ODP Leg 184 suggest that the geological structure on the continental slope of the northern South China Sea is favorable for the formation of gas hydrates. Bottom simulating reflectors (BSRs) and geochemical anomalies which indicate the existence of gas hydrates have been recognized in sediments of the Xisha Trough, the Dongsha Rise and the accretionary wedge of the Manila subduction zone. These gas hydrates are generated by two different mechanisms depending on the tectonic regime and the seismic and geochemical characteristics. The first applies to the passive continental margin of the nor-them South China Sea on the Dongsha Rise and in the Xisha Trough. The gas hydrates are associated with diapiric structures, active faults, slumps and gravity flows as well as high Late Cenozoic sedimentation rates. Their seismic expression includes BSRs, seismic blanking zones and velocity anomalies. The second mechanism is operative on the active continental margin along the Manila subduction zone, especially in the accretionary wedge. Here, gas hydrate occurrence is marked by widespread BSRs and acoustic 'pull-down' possibly related to the existence of free gas in the sediments beneath the BSR. The thickness of the seismic blanking zones averages 250 m, suggesting that the stable gas hydrate zone has about the same thickness. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characteristics of the microzooplankton community in Jiaozhou Bay, Qingdao, China

The species composition and abundance of microzooplankton at 10 marine and five coastal stations (Hongdao, Daguhe, Haibohe, Huangdao and Hangxiao) in the Jiaozhou Bay (Qingdao, China) were studied in 2001. The microzooplankton community was found to be dominated by Tintinnopsis beroidea, Tintinnopsis urnula, Tintinnopsis brevicollis and Cvdonellopsis sp. The average abundance of microzooplankton was highly variable among stations. Specifically, the abundance of microzooplankton was higher at inshore stations and lower in the center of the bay (St. 5), bay mouth (St. 9) and outside the bay (St. 10). The highest average annual densities (346 ind./L) was observed at St. 3, while the lowest (55 ind./L) was at St. 10. Two abundance peaks were recorded in May (324 ind./L) and February (300 ind./L). The distribution of microzooplankton in three sampling layers at the 10 stations was relatively homogenous and the abundance decreased slightly as the water depth increased. At coastal stations, the highest average annual density was recorded at Hongdao Station (677 ind./L), followed by Daguhe Station (616 ind./L), Haibohe Station (400 ind./L), Huangdao Station (275 ind./L) and Hangxiao Station (73 ind./L). Furthermore, a 24-h sampling analysis conducted at Hangxiao Station revealed that the microzooplankton assemblages were characterized by a bimodal diel vertical migration pattern, with the highest densities occurring at dusk (154 ind./L), followed by dawn (146 ind./L), noon (93 ind./L) and midnight (77 ind./L). The density of microzooplankton in the Jiaozhou Bay was in the middle range of the densities of temperate coastal waters worldwide.

MB倒转在中国黄土中的记录及海陆对比

Chinese loess preserved in northwest and north China are famous for its fine grain size, high accumulate rate and high community and can be good archives for paleoclimate and paleomagnetic variation over the later Cenozoic, with which can be correlated well between marine sediments. Major geomagnetic chrons and long term paleoclimate changes in Quaternary are successfully extracted from Chinese loess-paleosols, as well as short-term geomagnetic excursions and climate instability of high resolution. Magneticstratigraphy based on paleogeomagnetic polarity reversal recorded in Chinese loess is a basic project in loess research since decades ago. True geomagnetic records and exact location of geomagnetic reversal boundary in section is the foundation of magneticstratigraphy. Matuyama-Brunhes (MB) reversal as the youngest one still remains divarication about exact location of its boundary (MBB). L8 and S8 of Luochuan and Xifeng located in the interior of Chinese Loess Plateau(CLP) and Mangshan in southeast part of CLP are chosen to make clear some problems which include magnetic mineral, process of MB reversal, location of MBB, downward displacement scale of magnetic reversal boundary, time lag of paleoclimate record by marine and loess, new correlation between Chinese loess and marine sediments. Rock-magnetic investigations carried on L8 and S8 show that the main mineral are ferrimagnetic assemblage consists of magnetite and maghemite in Luochuan and Xifeng, and magnetite in Mangshan, which all contains little hematite belongs to antiferromagnetic phases. The main carrier of nature remanet magnetism (NRM) is detrital magnetite with pseudo-single domain. Detailed paleomagnetic investigations display that there are several rapid reversals in direction during the process of MB reversal which started at the upper part of S8 and finished at the lower part of L8, and lasted about decades of centimeters to more than 100cm correspond to about 104 years. On the assumption that MBB is located in the middle part of the layer which recorded the very reversal, 11cm is considered as the scale of downward displacement for the MBB in Chinese loess after estimation through correlation between Luochuan and Mangshan records. So this study denies the theory of large scale displacement of MBB and large scale Lock-in depth of NRM acquired from Chinese loess. Time lag of paleoclimate records in terrestrial sediments and marine sediments is considered after reassessment of correlation between low field susceptibility of Chinese loess with marine oxygen isotope in benthic foraminifera. On the basis of traditional correlation between Chinese loess and marine oxygen isotope, this study document a new scheme which correlates L8 and S8 to MIS18 and MIS19, respectively.

陇西盆地晚第三纪风尘沉积的地层学研究

In Asia, the significant environment changes in Cenozoic include: uplift of Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, formation Asian monsoon system, Aridification in Central Asia. One of major advances in recent studies of eolian deposit on the Loess Plateau is the verification of the eolian origin for the Late Tertiary Hipparion Red-Earth (also called red-Clay) underlying the Quaternary loess. Thus, the Late Tertiary eolian deposit, which has been proven a nearly continuous terrestrial record and sensitive to climate change, provides us an important archive to understand these above Cenozoic environment events. The deposit in eastern Loess Plateau has been extensively studied, while the property and age of deposit underlying the Quaternary loess in western plateau remains unclear. In this paper, detail investigations were made on the Sedimentology, geochemistry of Longxi section, a typical section in western Loess Plateau, to address its origin, and on micromammalian fossils and magnetostratigraphy to address its age. The main conclusions are presented as following: 1. The sedimentological and geochemical properties in Longxi section are highly similar to typical Quaternary eolian deposit in Loess Plateau. Nearly 100 paleosols are recognized in the field, and the grain size are very fine with the median grain size centered at 4～7μm. There is a good agreement of both major and trace element compositions between Longxi deposit and the Quaternary Loess. The REE distribution patterns of Longxi deposit and the Quaternary loess are remarkably similar in shape, with enrichment LREE and fairly flat HREE profiles and clear negative Eu anomaly. The mangnetic minerals in Longxi deposit are mainly magnetite, hematite and maghematite, which are similar to those of the Hipparion Red-Earth and Quaternary Loess. The major difference among them is that the samples from Longxi section contain more hematite. The characteristics of anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) in Longxi deposit is highly consistent with that of Quaternary loess, while values of the major AMS parameters, e.g. anisotropy degree, magnetic foliation and lineation, are significantly lower than those of fluvial and lake deposits. These evidences indicate an eolian origin for the sediment. 2. An investigation of micromammalian fossils was firstly carried out for determining the approximate age of the sequence because of lack of materials for accurate isotope dating. Three fossil assemblages were obtained which indicate a chronological range from the Middle Miocene to Late Miocene. The magnetostratigraphical study suggests that it is a near continuous terrestrial record for the period from 13.23 to 6.23 MaB.P. The obtained chronology is highly consistent with fossils assemblages. This section is the oldest eolian deposit presently known in Loess Plateau. 3. The magnetic susceptibly value is high in paleosols than in surrounded weak-weathered layers, which suggests that it may be a climate index on orbital time scale. While it cannot be used as a proxy to address the long-term, change of climate on tectonic time scale, as content of the magnetic minerals is highly variable in different parts of the section. 4. The appearance of Middle Miocene eolian deposit in the Loess Plateau marks the strengthening of aridification of Central Asia. The high degree of similarity between the geochemical properties of Longxi eolian deposit, Hipparion Red-Earth and Quaternary loess a suggests that a rather similar source provenance. The dust accumulation rate (DAR) of Longxi section, which is widely used as a proxy to document the aridity in source areas in marine and terrestrial record studies, recorded the aridity condition in northwestern China over a period from Middle Miocene to Late Miocene. The DAR of the section shows that the continent aridity remains moderate and relative stable over that period.

松辽盆地河流-三角洲体系高分辩率层序地层学、储层构形及非均质模型研究

This dissertation tries to combine the new theories of high-resolution sequence stratigraphy and reservoir architecture with fine sedimentology to form a integral theory system -"high-resolution sequence sedimentology", which can be applied widely ranging from the early petroleum exploration to the tertiary recovery stage in marine and terrestrial basin. So the west slope area in south of Songliao basin, in which, early-fine exploration have been developed, and Xingnan area of Daqing placantictine in high water-bearing and tertiary recovery stage, are selected as target areas to research and analyze. By applying high-resolution sequence stratigraphy theory as well as analysis of source area-facies, the west slope area has been divided into two source areas and three drainage systems and the following conclusions have been drawn: three high values sandstone areas, two sandstone pinchout zones and one stratigraphic pinchout overlap; the facies between Baicheng-Tongyu drainage system is frist ascertained as large-scale argillaceous filled plain facies; fine-grained braided channel-delta depositional system has been found; plane sedimentary facies and microfacies maps of different-scale sequence have been completed, and then twenty-eight lithologic traps have been detected in the east of Taobao-Zhenlai reverse fault zone; In no exploration area of the west, large-scale stratigraiphic overlap heavy oil reservoirs has first been found, which has become an important prograss. In Xingnan area, in the view of high-resolution sequence stratigraphy, the surface of unconformity (the bottom of SSC13) in P I group has been identified, and the following method and technique have been advanced: the division and correlation methods of short-scale base-level cycle sequence (SSC); the comprehensive research methods of SSC plane microfacies; the division technique of hierarchy and type of flow unit, the origin of large-scale composite sandbody and flow unit; And ,on the basis of these, 103 monosandstone bodies and 87 flow units of the third levels have been identified, and four levels of flow units model of five sandstone-bodies types have been established. Because it is a very difficult task all over the world to research architecture in subsurface monosandstone body, brings forward a series of techniques as follows: technique of researching architecture of thin interbed in subsurface monosandstone body; classification, type and liquid-resisting mechanism of thin interbed; multiple-remember vertical subsequence model of remaining oil in monosadstone body. Models of heterogeneity and architecture of thin interbed in five types of monosandstone body have been established. Applying these techniques, type and distribution of remaining oil in different types of monosandstone bodies have been predicated.

ENVIRON 2011: 21st Irish Environmental Researchers Colloquium

The theme of this year’s colloquium is “Towards 2020: Environmental challenges and opportunities for the next decade” which reflects the many environmental targets that have been set for the year 2020 in areas of climate change, renewable energy, water protection and biodiversity. In relation to the latter, we are delighted to have Professor Michael Depledge (Former Chairman of UK Science Advisory Committee on the Environment & Climate Change) at ENVIRON 2011 to deliver the colloquium keynote address on “Health and the Value of Nature”. The colloquium plenary session has a number of high profile speakers who will address the colloquium theme of environmental challenges and opportunities for the next decade including Professor John Sweeney (NUI Maynooth), Ms Laura Burke (Director of EPA’s Office of Climate, Licensing Research and Resource Use) and Mr John Mullins (CEO of Bord Gais). The research programme has 95 oral presentations and 60 poster presentations in the themes of water quality, energy and climate change, marine and coastal research, environmental management, environmental technologies, environment and health, and biodiversity and ecosystems. In addition, for the first year, poster presenters have the opportunity to make a 1 minute oral presentation on their poster during the oral sessions in the relevant theme. The 2011 colloquium also sees an increase the number of workshops and seminars accompanying the programme with an emphasis on training and development for postgraduates in the environmental area. We are particularly pleased to have a link with the Environment Graduate Programme in the “Ocean Studies Workshop” which illustrates how the ENVIRON colloquium can support and benefit from the various graduate programmes currently being developed within Universities. Finally ENVIRON 2011 and the UCC 2011 Law and the Environment symposium have been deliberately scheduled together at the same time and location to allow delegates from both conferences to benefit from each other’s programmes.

Later Life Consequences of Subteratogenic Exposure to a Complex PAH Mixture in the Atlantic Killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus)

Subteratogenic and other low-level chronic exposures to toxicant mixtures are an understudied threat to environmental and human health. It is especially important to understand the effects of these exposures for contaminants, such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) a large group of more than 100 individual compounds, which are important environmental (including aquatic) contaminants. Aquatic sediments constitute a major sink for hydrophobic pollutants, and studies show PAHs can persist in sediments over time. Furthermore, estuarine systems (namely breeding grounds) are of particular concern, as they are highly impacted by a wide variety of pollutants, and estuarine fishes are often exposed to some of the highest levels of contaminants of any vertebrate taxon. Acute embryonic exposure to PAHs results in cardiac teratogenesis in fish, and early life exposure to certain individual PAHs and PAH mixtures cause heart alterations with decreased swimming capacity in adult fish. Consequently, the heart and cardiorespiratory system are thought to be targets of PAH mixture exposure. While many studies have investigated acute, teratogenic PAH exposures, few studies have longitudinally examined the impacts of subtle, subteratogenic PAH mixture exposures, which are arguably more broadly applicable to environmental contamination scenarios. The goal of this dissertation was to highlight the later-life consequences of early-life exposure to subteratogenic concentrations of a complex, environmentally relevant PAH mixture.

A unique population of Fundulus heteroclitus (the Atlantic killifish or mummichog, hereafter referred to as killifish), has adapted to creosote-based polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) found at the Atlantic Wood Industries (AW) Superfund site in the southern branch of the Elizabeth River, VA, USA. This killifish population survives in a site heavily contaminated with a mixture of PAHs from former creosote operations. They have developed resistance to the acute toxicity and teratogenic effects caused by the mixture of PAHs in sediment from the site. The primary goal of this dissertation was to compare and contrast later-life outcomes of early-life, subteratogenic PAH mixture exposure in both the Atlantic Wood killifish (AW) and a naïve reference population of killifish from King’s Creek (KC; a relatively uncontaminated tributary of the Severn River, VA). Killifish from both populations were exposed to subteratogenic concentrations of a complex PAH-sediment extract, Elizabeth River Sediment Extract (ERSE), made by collecting sediment from the AW site. Fish were reared over a 5-month period in the laboratory, during which they were examined for a variety of molecular, physiological and behavioral responses.

The central aims of my dissertation were to determine alterations to embryonic gene expression, larval swimming activity, adult behavior, heart structure, enzyme activity, and swimming/cardiorespiratory performance following subteratogenic exposure to ERSE. I hypothesized that subteratogenic exposure to ERSE would impair cardiac ontogenic processes in a way that would be detectable via gene expression in embryos, and that the misregulation of cardiac genes would help to explain activity changes, behavioral deficits, and later-life swimming deficiencies. I also hypothesized that fish heart structure would be altered. In addition, I hypothesized that the AW killifish population would be resistant to developmental exposures and perform normally in later life challenges. To investigate these hypotheses, a series of experiments were carried out in PAH-adapted killifish from Elizabeth River and in reference killifish. As an ancillary project to the primary aims of the dissertation, I examined the toxicity of weaker aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR) agonists in combination with fluoranthene (FL), an inhibitor of cytochrome P4501A1 (CYP1A1). This side project was conducted in both Danio rerio (zebrafish) and the KC and AW killifish.

Embryonic gene expression was measured in both killifish populations over an ERSE dose response with multiple time points (12, 24, 48, and 144 hours post exposure). Genes known to play critical roles in cardiac structure/development, cardiac function, and angiogenesis were elevated, indicating cardiac damage and activation of cardiovascular repair mechanisms. These data helped to inform later-life swimming performance and cardiac histology studies. Behavior was assessed during light and dark cycles in larvae of both populations following developmental exposure to ERSE. While KC killifish showed activity differences following exposure, AW killifish showed no significant changes even at concentrations that would cause overt cardiac toxicity in KC killifish. Juvenile behavior experiments demonstrated hyperactivity following ERSE exposure in KC killifish, but no significant behavioral changes in AW killifish. Adult swimming performance via prolonged critical swimming capacity (Ucrit) demonstrated performance costs in the AW killifish. Furthermore, swimming performance decline was observed in KC killifish following exposure to increasing dilutions of ERSE. Lastly, cardiac histology suggested that early-life exposure to ERSE could result in cardiac structural alteration and extravasation of blood into the pericardial cavity.

Responses to AHR agonists resulted in a ranking of relative potency for agonists, and determined which agonists, when combined with FL, caused cardiac teratogenesis. These experiments showed interesting species differences for zebrafish and killifish. To probe mechanisms responsible for cardiotoxicity, a CYP1A-morpholino and a AHR2-morpholino were used to mimic FL effects or attempt to rescue cardiac deformities respectively. Findings suggested that the cardiac toxicity elicited by weak agonist + FL exposure was likely driven by AHR-independent mechanisms. These studies stand in contrast to previous research from our lab showing that moderate AHR agonist + FL caused cardiac toxicity that can be partially rescued by AHR-morpholino knockdown.

My findings will form better characterization of mechanisms of PAH toxicity, and advance our understanding of how subteratogenic mixtures of PAHs exert their toxic action in naïve killifish. Furthermore, these studies will provide a framework for investigating how subteratogenic exposures to PAH mixtures can impact aquatic organismal health and performance. Most importantly, these experiments have the potential to help inform risk assessment in fish, mammals, and potentially humans. Ultimately, this research will help protect populations exposed to subtle PAH-contamination.

Polychaetes associated with echinoderms in Hansa Bay (Madang Province, Papua New Guinea)

info:eu-repo/semantics/published

The use of computer simulation for aircraft evacuation certification: a report from the VERRES project

In this paper a methodology for the application of computer simulation to the evacuation certification of aircraft is suggested. The methodology suggested here involves the use of computer simulation, historic certification data, component testing and full-scale certification trials. The proposed methodology sets out a protocol for how computer simulation should be undertaken in a certification environment and draws on experience from both the marine and building industries. Along with the suggested protocol, a phased introduction of computer models to certification is suggested. Given the sceptical nature of the aviation community regarding any certification methodology change in general, this would involve as a first step the use of computer simulation in conjunction with full-scale testing. The computer model would be used to reproduce a probability distribution of likely aircraft performance under current certification conditions and in addition, several other more challenging scenarios could be developed. The combination of full-scale trial, computer simulation (and if necessary component testing) would provide better insight into the actual performance capabilities of the aircraft by generating a performance probability distribution or performance envelope rather than a single datum. Once further confidence in the technique is established, the second step would only involve computer simulation and component testing. This would only be contemplated after sufficient experience and confidence in the use of computer models have been developed. The third step in the adoption of computer simulation for certification would involve the introduction of several scenarios based on for example exit availability instructed by accident analysis. The final step would be the introduction of more realistic accident scenarios into the certification process. This would require the continued development of aircraft evacuation modelling technology to include additional behavioural features common in real accident scenarios.

Proposed methodology for the use of computer simulation to enhance aircraft evacuation certification

In this paper a methodology for the application of computer simulation to evacuation certification of aircraft is suggested. This involves the use of computer simulation, historic certification data, component testing, and full-scale certification trials. The methodology sets out a framework for how computer simulation should be undertaken in a certification environment and draws on experience from both the marine and building industries. In addition, a phased introduction of computer models to certification is suggested. This involves as a first step the use of computer simulation in conjunction with full-scale testing. The combination of full-scale trial, computer simulation (and if necessary component testing) provides better insight into aircraft evacuation performance capabilities by generating a performance probability distribution rather than a single datum. Once further confidence in the technique is established the requirement for the full-scale demonstration could be dropped. The second step in the adoption of computer simulation for certification involves the introduction of several scenarios based on, for example, exit availability, instructed by accident analysis. The final step would be the introduction of more realistic accident scenarios. This would require the continued development of aircraft evacuation modeling technology to include additional behavioral features common in real accident scenarios.

Predicting the behaviour of micro-electronic displays using computational mechanics

Micro-electronic displays are indispensible devices used in high performance applications such as aerospace, medical, marine and industrial sectors.These devices provide an interface to real time mission critical devices and therefore require good optical visual performance and high reliability, all this within varied and challenging environments.

Ecological effects of the North Atlantic oscillation

Climatic oscillations as reflected in atmospheric modes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) may be seen as a proxy for regulating forces in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Our review highlights the variety of climate processes related to the NAO and the diversity in the type of ecological responses that different biological groups can display. Available evidence suggests that the NAO influences ecological dynamics in both marine and terrestrial systems, and its effects may be seen in variation at the individual, population and community levels. The ecological responses to the NAO encompass changes in timing of reproduction, population dynamics, abundance, spatial distribution and interspecific relationships such as competition and predator-prey relationships. This indicates that local responses to large-scale changes may be more subtle than previously suggested. We propose that the NAO effects may be classified as three types: direct, indirect and integrated. Such a classification will help the design and interpretation of analyses attempting to relate ecological changes to the NAO and, possibly, to climate in general.