Proxy calibration on two sedimentary sequences off Lisbon

High-resolution proxy data analyzed on two high-sedimentation shallow water sedimentary sequences (PO287-26B and PO287-28B) recovered off Lisbon (Portugal) provide the means for comparison to long-term instrumental time series of marine and atmospheric parameters (sea surface temperature (SST), precipitation, total river flow, and upwelling intensity computed from sea level pressure) and the possibility to do the necessary calibration for the quantification of past climate conditions. XRF Fe is used as proxy for river flow, and the upwelling-related diatom genus Chaetoceros is our upwelling proxy. SST is estimated from the coccolithophore-synthesized alkenones and Uk'37 index. Comparison of the Fe record to the instrumental data reveals its similarity to a mean average run of the instrumentally measured winter (JFMA) river flow on both sites. The upwelling diatom record concurs with the upwelling indices at both sites; however, high opal dissolution, below 20-25 cm, prevents its use for quantitative reconstructions. Alkenone-derived SST at site 28B does not show interannual variation; it has a mean value around 16°C and compares quite well with the instrumental winter/spring temperature. At site 26B the mean SST is the same, but a high degree of interannual variability (up to 4°C) appears to be determined by summer upwelling conditions. Stepwise regression analyses of the instrumental and proxy data sets provided regressions that explain from 65 to 94% of the variability contained in the original data, and reflect spring and summer river flow, as well as summer and winter upwelling indices, substantiating the relevance of seasons to the interpretation of the different proxy signals. The lack of analogs and the small data set available do not allow quantitative reconstructions at this time, but this might be a powerful tool for reconstructing past North Atlantic Oscillation conditions, should we be able to find continuous high-resolution records and overcome the analog problem.