Letter to the Editor : on the value of probability for evaluating results of comparative pattern analyses

This letter to the Editor comments on the article Practical relevance of pattern uniqueness in forensic science by P.T. Jayaprakash (Forensic Science International, in press).

Climate Change or Land Use Dynamics: Do We Know What Climate Change Indicators Indicate?

Different components of global change can have interacting effects on biodiversity and this may influence our ability to detect the specific consequences of climate change through biodiversity indicators. Here, we analyze whether climate change indicators can be affected by land use dynamics that are not directly determined by climate change. To this aim, we analyzed three community-level indicators of climate change impacts that are based on the optimal thermal environment and averagelatitude of the distribution of bird species present at local communities. We used multiple regression models to relate the variation in climate change indicators to: i) environmental temperature; and ii) three landscape gradients reflecting important current land use change processes (land abandonment, fire impacts and urbanization), all of them having forest areas at their positive extremes. We found that, with few exceptions, landscape gradients determined the figures of climate change indicators as strongly as temperature. Bird communities in forest habitats had colder-dwelling bird species with more northerndistributions than farmland, burnt or urban areas. Our results show that land use changes can reverse, hide or exacerbate our perception of climate change impacts when measured through community-level climate change indicators. We stress the need of an explicit incorporation of the interactions between climate change and land use dynamics to understand what are current climate change indicators indicating and be able to isolate real climate change impacts

Report on the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship for the year ended June 30, 2013

Report on the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship for the year ended June 30, 2013

Testing extreme value copulas to estimate the quantile

Testing weather or not data belongs could been generated by a family of extreme value copulas is difficult. We generalize a test and we prove that it can be applied whatever the alternative hypothesis. We also study the effect of using different extreme value copulas in the context of risk estimation. To measure the risk we use a quantile. Our results have motivated by a bivariate sample of losses from a real database of auto insurance claims. Methods are implemented in R.

Apport du CT-3D dans le diagnostic et le traitement des fractures des plateaux tibiaux [Value of 3D CT in diagnosis and treatment of fractures of the tibial plateau]

A precise classification and an optimal understanding of tibial plateau fractures are the basis of a conservative treatment or adequate surgery. The aim of this prospective study is to determine the contribution of 3D CT to the classification of fractures (comparison with standard X-rays) and as an aid to the surgeon in preoperative planning and surgical reconstruction. Between November 1994 and July 1996, 20 patients presenting 22 tibial plateau fractures were considered in this study. They all underwent surgical treatment. The fractures were classified according to the Müller AO classification. They were all investigated by means of standard X-rays (AP, profile, oblique) and the 3D CT. Analysis of the results has shown the superiority of 3D CT in the planning (easier and more acute), in the classification (more precise), and in the exact assessment of the lesions (quantity of fragments); thereby proving to be of undeniable value of the surgeon.

08004-001 Summit Lake Final Report

The Summit Lake Watershed Improvement Project is a watershed-based sediment control project designed to greatly reduce to nearly eliminate sedimentation of an existing lake that is being renovated for use as a water source in southern Iowa. Summit Lake is owned by the City of Creston and was once a water source lake until around 1984. The watershed improvements will include lakeshore stabilization and erosion control practices as a precursor for related improvements to the lake and overall 4,900-acre watershed. Best practices included in this phase are the implementation of riprap, a rain garden, grade stabilization structures, grassed waterways, terraces, basins, water use and access ordinances, education and outreach, water monitoring, and other stream bank improvements. These improvements, along with leveraged work to be done by strategic partners, will enable the lake to be used for local and regional water supplies by sustaining the lake for many years to come. Without the lake rehabilitation, the lake will likely be filled with sedimentation to the point that it will have no recreational value. Key partners are the City of Creston, IDNR, Southern Iowa Rural Water Association, Union County, the Union County NRCS office, Southwestern Community College, and the Summit Lake Association, which is a non-profit group of landowners working to protect the lake. The project will address WIRB targets: a) streambank stabilization, b) livestock runoff, c) agricultural runoff and drainage, d) stormwater runoff, and e) a section of inadequately sewered community.

Stimulus-induced rhythmic, periodic or ictal discharges (SIRPIDs) in comatose survivors of cardiac arrest: Characteristics and prognostic value.

OBJECTIVES: To analyze the prevalence of stimulus-induced rhythmic, periodic or ictal discharges (SIRPIDs) in patients with coma after cardiac arrest (CA) and therapeutic hypothermia (TH) and to examine their potential association with outcome. METHODS: We studied our prospective cohort of adult survivors of CA treated with TH, assessing SIRPIDs occurrence and their association with 3-month outcome. Only univariated analyses were performed. RESULTS: 105 patients with coma after CA who underwent electroencephalogram (EEG) during TH and normothermia (NT) were studied. Fifty-nine patients (56%) survived, and 48 (46%) had good neurological recovery. The prevalence of SIRPIDs was 13.3% (14/105 patients), of whom 6 occurred during TH (all died), and 8 in NT (3 survived, 1 with good neurological outcome); none had SIRPIDs at both time-points. SIRPIDs were associated with discontinuous or non-reactive EEG background and were a robustly related to poor neurological outcome (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: This small series provides preliminary univariate evidence that in patients with coma after CA, SIRPIDs are associated with poor outcome, particularly when occurring during in therapeutic hypothermia. However, survival with good neurological recovery may be observed when SIRPIDs arise in the post-rewarming normothermic phase. SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides clinicians with new information regarding the SIRPIDs prognostic role in patients with coma after cardiac arrest.

Success of referral for alcohol dependent patients from a general hospital : predictive value of patient and process characteristics

RESUME: Introduction L'objectif de cette étude prospective de cohorte était d'estimer l'efficacité d'un processus de prise en charge standardisé de patients dépendants de l'alcool dans le contexte d'un hôpital universitaire de soins généraux. Ce modèle de prise en charge comprenait une évaluation multidisciplinaire puis des propositions de traitements individualisées et spécifiques (« projet thérapeutique »). Patients et méthode 165 patients alcoolo-dépendants furent recrutés dans différents services de l'hôpital universitaire, y compris la policlinique de médecine. Ils furent dans un premier temps évalués par une équipe multidisciplinaire (médecin interniste, psychiatre, assistant social), puis un projet thérapeutique spécialisé et individualisé leur fut proposé lors d'une rencontre réunissant le patient et l'équipe. Tous les patients éligibles acceptant de participer à l'étude (n=68) furent interrogés au moment de l'inclusion puis 2 et 6 mois plus tard par une psychologue. Des informations standardisées furent recueillies sur les caractéristiques des patients, le processus de prise en charge et l'évolution à 6 mois. Les critères de succès utilisés à 6 mois furent: l'adhérence au traitement proposé et l'abstinence d'alcool. Résultats Lors de l'évaluation à 6 mois, 43% des patients étaient toujours en traitement et 28% étaient abstinents. Les variables prédictrices de succès parmi les caractéristiques des patients étaient un âge de plus de 45 ans, ne pas vivre seul, avoir un travail et être motivé pour un traitement (RAATE-A <18). Pour les variables dépendantes du processus de prise en charge, un sevrage complet de l'alcool lors de la rencontre multidisciplinaire ainsi que la présence de tous les membres de l'équipe à cette réunion étaient des facteurs associés au succès. Conclusion L'efficacité de ce modèle d'intervention pour patients dépendants de l'alcool en hôpital de soins généraux s'est montrée satisfaisante, en particulier pour le critère de succès adhérence au traitement. Des variables associées au succès ou à l'échec à 6 mois ont pu être mises en évidence, permettant d'identifier des populations de patients évoluant différemment. Des stratégies de prise en charge tenant compte de ces éléments pourraient donc être développées, permettant de proposer des traitements plus adaptés ainsi qu'une meilleure rétention des patients alcooliques dans les programmes thérapeutiques. ABSTRACT. To assess the effectiveness of a multidisciplinary evaluation and referral process in a prospective cohort of general hospital patients with alcohol dependence, alcohol-dependent patients were identified in the wards of the general hospital and its primary care center. They were evaluated and then referred to treatment by a multidisciplinary team; those patients who accepted to participate in this cohort study were consecutively included and followed for 6 months. Not included patients were lost for follow-up, whereas all included patients were assessed at time of inclusion, 2 and 6 months later by a research psychologist in order to collect standardized baseline patients' characteristics, process salient features and patients outcomes (defined as treatment adherence and abstinence). Multidisciplinary evaluation and therapeutic referral was feasible and effective, with a success rate of 43% for treatment adherence and 28% for abstinence at 6 months. Among patients' characteristics, predictors of success were an age over 45, not living alone, being employed and being motivated to treatment (RAATE-A score < 18), whereas successful process characteristics included detoxification of the patient at time of referral and a full multidisciplinary referral meeting. This multidisciplinary model of evaluation and referral of alcohol dependent patients of a general hospital had a satisfactory level of effectiveness. Predictors of success and failure allow the identification of subsets of patients for whom new strategies of motivation and treatment referral should be designed.

Tachycardia is a strong predictor of cardiovascular events in the value trial

Objective: Tachycardia is associated with hypertension and is a predictor of cardiovascular events. The predictive effect of tachycardia might reflect its connection with hypertension. In this analysis of 15,245 VALUE study patients we explore whether tachycardia predicts cardiovascular endpoints in high risk hypertension and whether the in-trial blood pressure lowering modified the tachycardia - related risk. Methods: Heart rate from ECG readings at baseline and annually throughout the trial. Results: In the Cox Regression analysis the primary endpoint hazard ratio for a 10 beats per minute increment of baseline heart rate was 1.16 (1.12-1.2) p < 0.0001, 1.17 (1.13-1.22) p < 0.0001 and 1.22 (1.18-1.27) p < 0.0001 unadjusted, adjusted for baseline blood pressure and for blood pressure plus risk factors, respectively. Primary endpoints strikingly increased in the highest quintile of baseline heart rate (=/>79 beats). Primary endpoints in the highest heart rate quintile were 30 % higher in first, 55 % in second, 55 % in third, 52 % in fourth and 46 % in the fifth year of the study. The in-trial heart rate was also a potent predictor. The primary endpoint hazard ratios of highest heart rate quintile versus pooled lower 4 quintiles was (1.34-1.66) p < 0.0001 unadjusted, 1.52 (1.36-1.69) p <0.0001 adjusted for baseline blood pressure and risk factors and 1.52 (1.36-1.69) p < 0.0001 further adjusted for in trial pressure. The increase of primary events in the upper quintile of in-trial heart rate was 68% in the group with good and 63% in the group with inadequate blood pressure control (both p < 0.0001 by log rank test). Conclusions: 1./ Tachycardia is a short term marker and a long term predictor of adverse event in high risk hypertension. 2./ Tachycardia contributes to the residual cardiovascular risk regardless of the degree of BP control. We hypothesize heart rate lowering with appropriate drugs may further decrease the cardiovascular risk in patients with high risk hypertension and tachycardia.

The value of intraoperative ultrasound in oblique corpectomy for cervical spondylotic myelopathy and ossified posterior longitudinal ligament.

Intraoperative ultrasound (IOUS) has been described to be useful during central corpectomy for compressive cervical myelopathy. This study aimed at documenting the utility of IOUS in oblique cervical corpectomy (OCC). Prospective data from 24 patients undergoing OCC for cervical spondylotic myelopathy and ossified posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL) were collected. Patients had a preoperative cervical spine magnetic resonance (MR) image, IOUS and a postoperative cervical CT scan. Retrospective data from 16 historical controls that underwent OCC without IOUS were analysed to compare the incidence of residual compression between the two groups. IOUS identified the vertebral artery in all cases, detected residual cord compression in six (27%) and missed compression in two cases (9%). In another two cases with OPLL, IOUS was sub-optimal due to shadowing. IOUS measurement of the corpectomy width correlated well with these measurements on the postoperative CT. The extent of cord expansion noted on IOUS after decompression showed no correlation with immediate or 6-month postoperative neurological recovery. No significant difference in residual compression was noted in the retrospective and prospective groups of the study. Craniocaudal spinal cord motion was noted after the completion of the corpectomy. IOUS is an inexpensive and simple real-time imaging modality that may be used during OCC for cervical spondylotic myelopathy. It is helpful in identifying the vertebral artery and determining the trajectory of approach, however, it has limited utility in patients with OPLL due to artifacts from residual ossification.

El Land-Art a l'educació 0-3: l'expressió lliure i la comprensió del medi a través de l'art i la natura

Actualment el Land – Art és un moviment poc conegut i difós en la vessant educativa. Aquest treball pretén treure a la llum i transmetre l’essència d’aquest moviment enriquidor cap als infants. Tant és així, que el Land – Art esdevé una eina d’aprenentatge innovadora en el primer cicle d’Educació Infantil a través d’una metodologia constructivista que involucra a tota la comunitat educativa: professionals, família i alumnes. L’objectiu del present projecte és l’ús d’aquest moviment com instrument d’aprenentatge per tal d’observar i analitzar uns resultats que s’han anat construint a partir d’una hipòtesi: “El Land – Art a l’Educació 0-3 fomenta l’expressió lliure i la comprensió del medi”. En aquest treball trobarem, en primer lloc, el marc teòric del projecte; en segon lloc, el seu mètode d’investigació; en tercer lloc, la vessant pràctica del projecte; i, en quart i darrer lloc, les conclusions que reflecteixen la part comparativa entre el marc teòric i la part pràctica, on es finalitzarà amb les reflexions finals.