Assessing vulnerability at the urban interface

House loss during unplanned bushfires is a complex phenomenon where design, configuration, material and siting, can significantly influence the loss. In collaboration with the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre the CSIRO has developed a tool to assess the vulnerability of a specific house at the urban interface. The tool is based on a spatial profiling of urban assets including their design, material, surrounding objects and their relationship amongst one another. The analysis incorporates both probabilistic and deterministic parameters, and is based on the impact of radiant heat, flame and embers on the surrounding elements and the structure itself. It provides a breakdown of the attributes and design parameters that contribute to the vulnerability level. This paper describes the tool which allows the user to explore the vulnerability of a house to varying levels of bushfire attacks. The tool is aimed at government agencies interested in building design, town planning and community education for bushfire risk mitigation.

The Edge of Danger: artificial lighting and the dialectics of domestic occupation in Philip Johnson's Glass and Guest Houses

In the first half of the twentieth century the dematerializing of boundaries between enclosure and exposure problematized traditional acts of “occupation” and understandings of the domestic environment. As a space of escalating technological control, the modern domestic interior offered new potential to re-define the meaning and means of habitation. This shift is clearly expressed in the transformation of electric lighting technology and applications for the modern interior in the mid-twentieth century. Addressing these issues, this paper examines the critical role of electric lighting in regulating and framing both the public and private occupation of Philip Johnson’s New Canaan estate. Exploring the dialectically paired transparent Glass House and opaque Guest House (both 1949), this study illustrates how Johnson employed artificial light to control the visual environment of the estate as well as to aestheticize the performance of domestic space. Looking closely at the use of artificial light to create emotive effects as well as to intensify the experience of occupation, this revisiting of the iconic Glass House and lesser-known Guest House provides a more complex understanding of Johnson’s work and the means with which he inhabited his own architecture. Calling attention to the importance of Johnson serving as both architect and client, and his particular interest in exploring the new potential of architectural lighting in this period, this paper investigates Johnson’s use of electric light to support architectural narratives, maintain visual order and control, and to suit the nuanced desires of domestic occupation.

How to measure sustainable progress

In September, the United Nations General Assembly adopted Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), to be met by the year 2030. These important goals range from poverty eradication and improvements in education and health to the protection of global assets, including the oceans and a stable climate. Unfortunately, neither the SDGs nor their background documents explain how governments should judge whether the development programs they undertake to meet the goals are sustainable.

Fair values and audit fees: Evidence from asset revaluations in Australia

This paper examines the association between the level of audit fees paid and asset revaluations, one use of fair value accounting. This Australian study also investigates attributes of asset revaluations and the association with the level of audit fees paid. We find that firms choosing the revaluation model incur higher audit fees than those that chose the cost model; asset revaluations made by directors lead to the firm incurring higher audit fees than for those made by external independent appraisers; and revaluation of investment properties leads to lower audit fees. The findings suggest that asset revaluations can result in higher agency costs and audit fees vary with the reliability of the revaluations and the class of assets being revalued.

The determinants of fair value measurements of banks: International evidence

The purpose of this study is to investigate the accounting choice decisions of banks to employ Level 3 inputs in estimating the value of their financial assets and liabilities. Using a sample of 146 bank-year observations from 18 countries over 2009-2012, this study finds banks’ incentives to use Level 3 valuation inputs are associated with both firm-level and country-level determinants. At the firm-level, leverage, profitability (in term of net income), Tier 1 capital ratio, size and audit committee independence are associated with the percentage of Level 3 valuation inputs. At the country-level, economy development, legal region, legal enforcement and investor rights are also associated with the Level 3 classification choice. Lastly, ‘secrecy’, the proxy for culture dimensions and values, is found to be positively associated with the use of Level 3 valuation inputs. Altogether, these findings suggest that banks use the discretion available under Level 3 inputs opportunistically to avoid violating debt covenants limits, to increase earnings and manage their capital ratios. Results of this study also highlight that corporate governance quality at the firm-level (e.g. audit committee independence) and institutional features can constrain banks’ opportunistic behaviors in using the discretion available under Level 3 inputs. The results of this study have important implications for standard setters and contribute to the debate on the use of fair value accounting in an international context.

The determinants of fair value measurements of banks: International evidence

The purpose of this study is to investigate the accounting choice decisions of banks to employ Level 3 inputs in estimating the value of their financial assets and liabilities. Using a sample of 146 bank-year observations from 18 countries over 2009-2012, this study finds banks’ incentives to use Level 3 valuation inputs are associated with both firm-level and country-level determinants. At the firm-level, leverage, profitability (in term of net income), Tier 1 capital ratio, size and audit committee independence are associated with the percentage of Level 3 valuation inputs. At the country-level, economy development, legal region, legal enforcement and investor rights are also associated with the Level 3 classification choice. Lastly, ‘secrecy’, the proxy for culture dimensions and values, is found to be positively associated with the use of Level 3 valuation inputs. Altogether, these findings suggest that banks use the discretion available under Level 3 inputs opportunistically to avoid violating debt covenants limits, to increase earnings and manage their capital ratios. Results of this study also highlight that corporate governance quality at the firm-level (e.g. audit committee independence) and institutional features can constrain banks’ opportunistic behaviors in using the discretion available under Level 3 inputs. The results of this study have important implications for standard setters and contribute to the debate on the use of fair value accounting in an international context.

The usefulness of fair values in improving the predictive ability of earnings: Evidence from international banks

One of the objectives of general-purpose financial reporting is to provide information about the financial position, financial performance and cash flows of an entity that is useful to a wide range of users in making economic decisions. The current focus on potentially increased relevance of fair value accounting weighed against issues of reliability has failed to consider the potential impact on the predictive ability of accounting. Based on a sample of international (non-U.S.) banks from 24 countries during 2009-2012, we test the usefulness of fair values in improving the predictive ability of earnings. First, we find that the increasing use of fair values on balance-sheet financial instruments enhances the ability of current earnings to predict future earnings and cash flows. Second, we provide evidence that the fair value hierarchy classification choices affect the ability of earnings to predict future cash flows and future earnings. More precisely, we find that the non-discretionary fair value component (Level 1 assets) improves the predictability of current earnings whereas the discretionary fair value components (Level 2 and Level 3 assets) weaken the predictive power of earnings. Third, we find a consistent and strong association between factors reflecting country-wide institutional structures and predictive power of fair values based on discretionary measurement inputs (Level 2 and Level 3 assets and liabilities). Our study is timely and relevant. The findings have important implications for standard setters and contribute to the debate on the use of fair value accounting.

A cultural assessment of family dispute resolution: Findings about access, retention and outcomes from the evaluation of a Family Relationship Centre

The cultural appropriateness of human service processes is a major factor in determining the effectiveness of their delivery. Sensitivity to issues of culture is particularly critical in dealing with family disputes, which are generally highly emotive and require difficult decisions to be made regarding children, material assets and ongoing relationships. In this article we draw on findings from an evaluation of the Family Relationship Centre at Broadmeadows (FRCB) to offer some insights into and suggestions about managing cultural matters in the current practice of family dispute resolution (FDR) in Australia. The brief for the original research was to evaluate the cultural appropriateness of FDR services offered to culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) communities living within the FRCB’s catchment area, specifically members of the Lebanese, Turkish and Iraqi communities. The conclusions of the evaluations were substantially positive. The work of the Centre was found to illustrate many aspects of best practice but also raised questions worthy of future exploration. The current article reports on issues of access, retention and outcomes obtained by CALD clients at various stages of the FRCB service.

A cultural assessment of family dispute resolution: Findings about cultural appropriateness from the evaluation of a family relationship centre

The cultural appropriateness of human service processes is a major factor in determining the effectiveness of their delivery. Sensitivity to issues of culture is particularly critical in dealing with family disputes, which are generally highly emotive and require difficult decisions to be made regarding children, material assets and ongoing relationships. In this article we draw on findings from an evaluation of the Family Relationship Centre at Broadmeadows (FRCB) to offer some insights into and suggestions about managing cultural matters in the current practice of family dispute resolution (FDR) in Australia. The brief for the original research was to evaluate the cultural appropriateness of FDR services offered to culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) communities living within the FRCB’s catchment area, specifically members of the Lebanese, Turkish and Iraqi communities. The conclusions of the evaluations were substantially positive. The work of the Centre was found to illustrate many aspects of best practice but also raised questions worthy of future exploration. The current article reports on overall cultural appropriateness, particularly identifying barriers which may inhibit access and how acculturation may play a role in reducing perception of barriers. An earlier article reported on access, retention and outcomes for these CALD groups (Akin Ojelabi et al., 2011).

Growing up in Affiliation with a Religious Community : A Case Study of Seventh-day Adventist Youth in Finland

This study investigates how the religious community as a socialization context affects the development of young people's religious identity and values, using Finnish Seventh-day Adventism as a context for the case study. The research problem is investigated through the following questions: (1) What aspects support the intergenerational transmission of values and tradition in religious home education? (2) What is the role of social capital and the social networks of the religious community in the religious socialization process? (3) How does the religious composition of the peer group at school (e.g., a denominational school in comparison to a mainstream school) affect these young people s social relations and choices and their religious identity (as challenged versus as reinforced by values at school)? And (4) How do the young people studied negotiate their religious values and religious membership in the diverse social contexts of the society at large? The mixed method study includes both quantitative and qualitative data sets (3 surveys: n=106 young adults, n=100 teenagers, n=55 parents; 2 sets of interviews: n=10 young adults and n=10 teenagers; and fieldwork data from youth summer camps). The results indicate that, in religious home education, the relationship between parents and children, the parental example of a personally meaningful way of life, and encouraging critical thinking in order for young people to make personalized value choices were important factors in socialization. Overall, positive experiences of the religion and the religious community were crucial in providing direction for later choices of values and affiliations. Education that was experienced as either too severe or too permissive was not regarded as a positive influence for accepting similar values and lifestyle choices to those of the parents. Furthermore, the religious community had an important influence on these young people s religious socialization in terms of the commitment to denominational values and lifestyle and in providing them with religious identity and rooting them in the social network of the denomination. The network of the religious community generated important social resources, or social capital, for both the youth and their families, involving both tangible and intangible benefits, and bridging and bonding effects. However, the study also illustrates the sometimes difficult negotiations the youth face in navigating between differentiation and belonging when there is a tension between the values of a minority group and the larger society, and one wants to and does belong to both. It also demonstrates the variety within both the majority and the minority communities in society, as well as the many different ways one can find a personally meaningful way of being an Adventist. In the light of the previous literature about socialization-in-context in an increasingly pluralistic society, the findings were examined at four levels: individual, family, community and societal. These were seen as both a nested structure and as constructing a funnel in which each broader level directs the influences that reach the narrower ones. The societal setting directs the position and operation of religious communities, families and individuals, and the influences that reach the developing children and young people are in many ways directed by societal, communal and family characteristics. These levels are by nature constantly changing, as well as being constructed of different parts, like the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle, each of which alters in significance: for some negotiations on values and memberships the parental influence may be greater, whereas for others the peer group influences are. Although agency does remain somewhat connected to others, the growing youth are gradually able to take more responsibility for their own choices and their agency plays a crucial role in the process of choosing values and group memberships. Keywords: youth, community, Adventism, socialization, values, identity negotiations

Boost Customer Loyalty with Online Support. The Case of Mobile Telecoms Providers.

The paper explores the effect of customer satisfaction with online supporting services on loyalty to providers of an offline core service. Supporting services are provided to customers before, during, or after the purchase of a tangible or intangible core product, and have the purpose of enhancing or facilitating the use of this product. The internet has the potential to dominate all other marketing channels when it comes to the interactive and personalised communication that is considered quintessential for supporting services. Our study shows that the quality of online supporting services powerfully affects satisfaction with the provider and customer loyalty through its effect on online value and enjoyment. Managerial implications are provided.

Detecting Earnings Management Using Neural Networks

Detecting Earnings Management Using Neural Networks. Trying to balance between relevant and reliable accounting data, generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) allow, to some extent, the company management to use their judgment and to make subjective assessments when preparing financial statements. The opportunistic use of the discretion in financial reporting is called earnings management. There have been a considerable number of suggestions of methods for detecting accrual based earnings management. A majority of these methods are based on linear regression. The problem with using linear regression is that a linear relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables must be assumed. However, previous research has shown that the relationship between accruals and some of the explanatory variables, such as company performance, is non-linear. An alternative to linear regression, which can handle non-linear relationships, is neural networks. The type of neural network used in this study is the feed-forward back-propagation neural network. Three neural network-based models are compared with four commonly used linear regression-based earnings management detection models. All seven models are based on the earnings management detection model presented by Jones (1991). The performance of the models is assessed in three steps. First, a random data set of companies is used. Second, the discretionary accruals from the random data set are ranked according to six different variables. The discretionary accruals in the highest and lowest quartiles for these six variables are then compared. Third, a data set containing simulated earnings management is used. Both expense and revenue manipulation ranging between -5% and 5% of lagged total assets is simulated. Furthermore, two neural network-based models and two linear regression-based models are used with a data set containing financial statement data from 110 failed companies. Overall, the results show that the linear regression-based models, except for the model using a piecewise linear approach, produce biased estimates of discretionary accruals. The neural network-based model with the original Jones model variables and the neural network-based model augmented with ROA as an independent variable, however, perform well in all three steps. Especially in the second step, where the highest and lowest quartiles of ranked discretionary accruals are examined, the neural network-based model augmented with ROA as an independent variable outperforms the other models.

Modelling and Forecasting Property Rents and Returns (summary section only)

Recently, focus of real estate investment has expanded from the building-specific level to the aggregate portfolio level. The portfolio perspective requires investment analysis for real estate which is comparable with that of other asset classes, such as stocks and bonds. Thus, despite its distinctive features, such as heterogeneity, high unit value, illiquidity and the use of valuations to measure performance, real estate should not be considered in isolation. This means that techniques which are widely used for other assets classes can also be applied to real estate. An important part of investment strategies which support decisions on multi-asset portfolios is identifying the fundamentals of movements in property rents and returns, and predicting them on the basis of these fundamentals. The main objective of this thesis is to find the key drivers and the best methods for modelling and forecasting property rents and returns in markets which have experienced structural changes. The Finnish property market, which is a small European market with structural changes and limited property data, is used as a case study. The findings in the thesis show that is it possible to use modern econometric tools for modelling and forecasting property markets. The thesis consists of an introduction part and four essays. Essays 1 and 3 model Helsinki office rents and returns, and assess the suitability of alternative techniques for forecasting these series. Simple time series techniques are able to account for structural changes in the way markets operate, and thus provide the best forecasting tool. Theory-based econometric models, in particular error correction models, which are constrained by long-run information, are better for explaining past movements in rents and returns than for predicting their future movements. Essay 2 proceeds by examining the key drivers of rent movements for several property types in a number of Finnish property markets. The essay shows that commercial rents in local markets can be modelled using national macroeconomic variables and a panel approach. Finally, Essay 4 investigates whether forecasting models can be improved by accounting for asymmetric responses of office returns to the business cycle. The essay finds that the forecast performance of time series models can be improved by introducing asymmetries, and the improvement is sufficient to justify the extra computational time and effort associated with the application of these techniques.

Essays on the Linkages Between Financial Markets, and Risk Asymmetries (summary section only)

During the last few decades there have been far going financial market deregulation, technical development, advances in information technology, and standardization of legislation between countries. As a result, one can expect that financial markets have grown more interlinked. The proper understanding of the cross-market linkages has implications for investment and risk management, diversification, asset pricing, and regulation. The purpose of this research is to assess the degree of price, return, and volatility linkages between both geographic markets and asset categories within one country, Finland. Another purpose is to analyze risk asymmetries, i.e., the tendency of equity risk to be higher after negative events than after positive events of equal magnitude. The analysis is conducted both with respect to total risk (volatility), and systematic risk (beta). The thesis consists of an introductory part and four essays. The first essay studies to which extent international stock prices comove. The degree of comovements is low, indicating benefits from international diversification. The second essay examines the degree to which the Finnish market is linked to the “world market”. The total risk is divided into two parts, one relating to world factors, and one relating to domestic factors. The impact of world factors has increased over time. After 1993, when foreign investors were allowed to freely invest in Finnish assets, the risk level has been higher than previously. This was also the case during the economic recession in the beginning of the 1990’s. The third essay focuses on the stock, bond, and money markets in Finland. According to a trading model, the degree of volatility linkages should be strong. However, the results contradict this. The linkages are surprisingly weak, even negative. The stock market is the most independent, while the money market is affected by events on the two other markets. The fourth essay concentrates on volatility and beta asymmetries. Contrary to many international studies there are only few cases of risk asymmetries. When they occur, they tend to be driven by the market-wide component rather than the portfolio specific element.

Essays on Risk and Return

Perhaps the most fundamental prediction of financial theory is that the expected returns on financial assets are determined by the amount of risk contained in their payoffs. Assets with a riskier payoff pattern should provide higher expected returns than assets that are otherwise similar but provide payoffs that contain less risk. Financial theory also predicts that not all types of risks should be compensated with higher expected returns. It is well-known that the asset-specific risk can be diversified away, whereas the systematic component of risk that affects all assets remains even in large portfolios. Thus, the asset-specific risk that the investor can easily get rid of by diversification should not lead to higher expected returns, and only the shared movement of individual asset returns – the sensitivity of these assets to a set of systematic risk factors – should matter for asset pricing. It is within this framework that this thesis is situated. The first essay proposes a new systematic risk factor, hypothesized to be correlated with changes in investor risk aversion, which manages to explain a large fraction of the return variation in the cross-section of stock returns. The second and third essays investigate the pricing of asset-specific risk, uncorrelated with commonly used risk factors, in the cross-section of stock returns. The three essays mentioned above use stock market data from the U.S. The fourth essay presents a new total return stock market index for the Finnish stock market beginning from the opening of the Helsinki Stock Exchange in 1912 and ending in 1969 when other total return indices become available. Because a total return stock market index for the period prior to 1970 has not been available before, academics and stock market participants have not known the historical return that stock market investors in Finland could have achieved on their investments. The new stock market index presented in essay 4 makes it possible, for the first time, to calculate the historical average return on the Finnish stock market and to conduct further studies that require long time-series of data.