Fire management, climate change and their interacting effects on birds in complex Mediterranean landscapes: dynamic distribution modelling of an early-successional species - the near-threatened Dartford Warbler (Sylvia undata)

The current challenge in a context of major environmental changes is to anticipate the responses of species to future landscape and climate scenarios. In the Mediterranean basin, climate change is one the most powerful driving forces of fire dynamics, with fire frequency and impact having markedly increased in recent years. Species distribution modelling plays a fundamental role in this challenge, but better integration of available ecological knowledge is needed to adequately guide conservation efforts. Here, we quantified changes in habitat suitability of an early-succession bird in Catalonia, the Dartford Warbler (Sylvia undata) ― globally evaluated as Near Threatened in the IUCN Red List. We assessed potential changes in species distributions between 2000 and 2050 under different fire management and climate change scenarios and described landscape dynamics using a spatially-explicit fire-succession model that simulates fire impacts in the landscape and post-fire regeneration (MEDFIRE model). Dartford Warbler occurrence data were acquired at two different spatial scales from: 1) the Atlas of European Breeding Birds (EBCC) and 2) Catalan Breeding Bird Atlas (CBBA). Habitat suitability was modelled using five widely-used modelling techniques in an ensemble forecasting framework. Our results indicated considerable habitat suitability losses (ranging between 47% and 57% in baseline scenarios), which were modulated to a large extent by fire regime changes derived from fire management policies and climate changes. Such result highlighted the need for taking the spatial interaction between climate changes, fire-mediated landscape dynamics and fire management policies into account for coherently anticipating habitat suitability changes of early succession bird species. We conclude that fire management programs need to be integrated into conservation plans to effectively preserve sparsely forested and early succession habitats and their associated species in the face of global environmental change.

Preface: Extreme events induced by weather and climate change: evaluation, forecasting and proactive planning

This special issue of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) contains eight papers presented as oral or poster contributions in the Natural Hazards NH-1.2 session on"Extreme events induced by weather and climate change: evaluation, forecasting and proactive planning", held at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly in Vienna, Austria, on 13-18 April 2008. The aim of the session was to provide an international forum for presenting new results and for discussing innovative ideas and concepts on extreme hydro-meteorological events, including: (i) the assessment of the risk posed by the extreme events, (ii) the expected changes in the frequency and intensity of the events driven by a changing climate and by multiple human- induced causes, (iii) new modelling approaches and original forecasting methods to predict extreme events and their consequences, and (iv) strategies for hazard mitigation and risk reduction, and for a improved adaptation to extreme hydro-meteorological events ...

Controlling Access to Personal Information

Tässä diplomityössä käsitellään henkilökohtaisen tiedon saannin kontrollointia ja tiedon kuvaamista. Työn käytännön osuudessa suunniteltiin XML –malli henkilökohtaisen tiedon kuvaamiseen. Henkilökohtaisten tietojen käyttäminen mahdollistaa henkilökohtaisen palvelun tarjoamisen ja myös palvelun automatisoinnin käyttäjälle. Henkilökohtaisen tiedon kuvaaminen on hyvin oleellista, jotta palvelut voivat kysellä ja ymmärtää tietoja. Henkilökohtaiseen tietoon vaikuttaa erilaisia tekijöitä, jotka on myös otettava huomioon tietoa kuvattaessa. Henkilökohtaisen tiedon leviäminen eri palveluiden tarjoajille tuo mukanaan myös riskejä. Henkilökohtaisen tiedon joutuminen väärän henkilön käsiin saattaa aiheuttaa vakaviakin ongelmia tiedon omistajalle. Henkilökohtaisen tiedon turvallisen ja luotettavan käytettävyyden kannalta onkin hyvin oleellista, että käyttäjällä on mahdollisuus kontrolloida kenelle hän haluaa luovuttaa mitäkin tietoa.

Organizational change - the personnel perpective Case: Nordea - Financial Institutions

Tutkimuksen tavoite Tutkimuksen tavoite oli kerätä FI:n johdolle tietoa henkilöstön suhtautumisesta organisaatiomuutokseen. Tutkimus toimii pohjana muutosprosessin kriittiselle tarkastelulle ja mahdollisille muutoksille resurssien kohdentamisessa. Tutkimusmenetelmä Organisaatiomuutosta käsittelevä kirjallisuus muodosti tutkielman teoriapohjan. Tutkimuksen aineisto kerättiin kyselylomakkeella FI:n henkilöstölle ja neljällä haastattelulla henkilöstön ja johdon kanssa. Johtopäätökset Yleisesti tuloksista on nähtävissä, että vastaajat ovat aluksi vastustaneet muutosta, vaikka muutos itsessään onkin nähty positiivisena kehityksenä. Vastarintaa ovat aiheuttaneet pääasiallisesti muutoksen johtamisen tyyli ja tiedotuksen kokeminen riittämättömänä.

Salt stress change chlorophyll fluorescence in mango

This study evaluated the tolerance of mango cultivars 'Haden', 'Palmer', 'Tommy Atkins' and 'Uba' grafted on rootstock 'Imbú' to salt stress using chlorophyll fluorescence. Plants were grown in modified Hoagland solution containing 0, 15, 30, and 45 mmol L-1 NaCl. At 97 days the parameters of the chlorophyll fluorescence (F0, Fm, Fv, F0/Fm, Fv/Fm, Fv'/Fm', ΦPSII = [(Fm'-Fs)/(Fm')], D = (1- Fv'/Fm') and ETR = (ΦPSII×PPF×0,84×0,5) were determined. At 100 days, the leaf emission and leaf area, toxicity and leaf abscission indexes were determined. In all cultivars evaluated, in different degree, there were decreases in photochemical efficiency of photosystem II, enhanced concentrations from 15 mmol L-1 NaCl. The decreases in the potential quantum yield of photosystem II (Fv/Fm) were 27.9, 18.7, 20.5, and 27.4%, for cultivars 'Haden', 'Palmer', 'Tommy Atkins', and 'Uba', respectively, when grown in 45 mmol L-1 NaCl. It was found decreases in leaf emission and mean leaf area in all cultivars from 15 mmol L-1 NaCl. There were increases in leaf toxicity of 33.0, 67.5, 41.6 and 80.8% and in leaf abscission of 71.8, 29.2, 32.5, and 67.9% for the cultivars 'Haden', 'Palmer', 'Tommy Atkins', and 'Uba' respectively, when grown in 45 mmol L-1 NaCl. Leaf toxicity and leaf abscission were not observed in 15 mmol L-1 NaCl. The decrease in Fv/Fm ratio were accompanied by decreasing in leaf emission and increased leaf toxicity index, showing, therefore, the potential of chlorophyll fluorescence in the early detection of salt stress in mango tree.

Trace element monitoring in the ICU: quality and economic impact of a change in sampling practice.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Trace elements (TE) are involved in the immune and antioxidant defences which are of particular importance during critical illness. Determining plasma TE levels is costly. The present quality control study aimed at assessing the economic impact of a computer reminded blood sampling versus a risk guided on-demand monitoring of plasma concentrations of selenium, copper, and zinc. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of 2 cohorts of patients admitted during 6 months periods in 2006 and 2009 to the ICU of a University hospital. INCLUSION CRITERIA: to receive intravenous micronutrient supplements and/or to have a TE sampling during ICU stay. The TE samplings were triggered by computerized reminder in 2006 versus guided by nutritionists in 2009. RESULTS: During the 2 periods 636 patients met the inclusion criteria out of 2406 consecutive admissions, representing 29.7% and 24.9% respectively of the periods' admissions. The 2009 patients had higher SAPS2 scores (p = 0.02) and lower BMI compared to 2006 (p = 0.007). The number of laboratory determinations was drastically reduced in 2009, particularly during the first week, despite the higher severity of the cohort, resulting in à 55% cost reduction. CONCLUSIONS: The monitoring of TE concentrations guided by a nutritionist resulted in a reduction of the sampling frequency, and targeting on the sickest high risk patients, requiring a nutritional prescription adaptation. This control leads to cost reduction compared to an automated sampling prescription.

Demand-based structural change and balanced economic growth

[eng] We analyze the equilibrium of a multi-sector exogenous growth model where the introduction of minimum consumption requirements drives structural change. We show that equilibrium dynamics simultaneously exhibt structural change and balanced growth of aggregate variables as is observed in US when the initial intensity of minimum consumption requirements is sufficiently small. This intensity is measured by the ratio between the aggregate value of the minimum consumption requirements and GDP and, therefore, it is inversely related with the level of economic development. Initially rich economies benefit from an initially low intensity of the minimum consumption requirements and, as a consequence, these economies end up exhibiting balanced growth of aggregate variables, while there is structural change. In contrast, initially poor economies suffer from an initially large intensity of the minimum consumption requirements, which makes the growth of the aggregate variables unbalanced during a very large period. These economies may never exhibit simultaneously balanced growth of aggregate variables and structural change.

Demand-based structural change and balanced economic growth

[eng] We analyze the equilibrium of a multi-sector exogenous growth model where the introduction of minimum consumption requirements drives structural change. We show that equilibrium dynamics simultaneously exhibt structural change and balanced growth of aggregate variables as is observed in US when the initial intensity of minimum consumption requirements is sufficiently small. This intensity is measured by the ratio between the aggregate value of the minimum consumption requirements and GDP and, therefore, it is inversely related with the level of economic development. Initially rich economies benefit from an initially low intensity of the minimum consumption requirements and, as a consequence, these economies end up exhibiting balanced growth of aggregate variables, while there is structural change. In contrast, initially poor economies suffer from an initially large intensity of the minimum consumption requirements, which makes the growth of the aggregate variables unbalanced during a very large period. These economies may never exhibit simultaneously balanced growth of aggregate variables and structural change.

Attitudes Toward Organizational Change among Public Middle Managers

Positive attitudes toward change (PATC) are an important current issue in public organizations facing profound financial and managerial reforms. This study aims to identify social and organizational antecedents of PATC. The investigated population is composed of middle managers working in Swiss public hospitals (N = 720), which are currently being confronted by major reforms. Partial mediation effects of organizational commitment (OC) in the relationships between independent variables and PATC are also controlled. The findings show that perceived social support (work relationships with colleagues and supervisors) as well as perceived organizational support (employee voice and participation, information and communication, work-life balance) are positively and significantly related to PATC. Stress perception is shown to have a negative impact on PATC. This article provides valuable contributions with respect to antecedents of attitudes toward change in a population of public middle managers.

Coffee polyphenols change the expression of STAT5b and ATF-2 modifying cyclin D1 levels in cancer cells

Background: Epidemiological studies suggest that coffee consumption reduces the risk of cancer, but the molecular mechanisms of its chemopreventive effects remain unknown. Objective: To identify differentially expressed genes upon incubation of HT29 colon cancer cells with instant caffeinated coffee (ICC) or caffeic acid (CA) using whole genome microarrays. Results: ICC incubation of HT29 cells caused the overexpression of 57 genes and the underexpression of 161, while CA incubation induced the overexpression of 12 genes and the underexpression of 32. Using Venn-Diagrams, we built a list of five overexpressed genes and twelve underexpressed genes in common between the two experimental conditions. This list was used to generate a biological association network in which STAT5B and ATF-2 appeared as highly interconnected nodes. STAT5B overexpression was confirmed at the mRNA and protein levels. For ATF-2, the changes in mRNA levels were confirmed for both ICC and CA, whereas the decrease in protein levels was only observed in CA-treated cells. The levels of cyclin D1, a target gene for both STAT5B and ATF-2, were dowregulated by CA in colon cancer cells and by ICC and CA in breast cancer cells. Conclusions: Coffee polyphenols are able to affect cyclin D1 expression in cancer cells through the modulation of STAT5B and ATF-2.

Tolerance and Relative Utility: Two Proposed Indices for Comparing Change in Clinical Measurement Noise Between Different Populations (Repeatability) or Measurement Methods (Agreement).

Reaching a consensus in terms of interchangeability and utility (i.e., disease detection/monitoring) of a medical device is the eventual aim of repeatability and agreement studies. The aim of the tolerance and relative utility indices described in this report is to provide a methodology to compare change in clinical measurement noise between different populations (repeatability) or measurement methods (agreement), so as to highlight problematic areas. No longitudinal data are required to calculate these indices. Both indices establish a metric of least to most effected across all parameters to facilitate comparison. If validated, these indices may prove useful tools when combining reports and forming the consensus required in the validation process for software updates and new medical devices.

Biogeochemical processes controlling oxygen and carbon isotopes of diatom silica in Late Glacial to Holocene lacustrine rhythmites

Biogeochemical cycles and sedimentary records in lakes are related to climate controls on hydrology and catchment processes. Changes in the isotopic imposition of the diatom frustules (δ 18 O diatom and δ 13 C diatom ) in lacustrine sediments can be used to reconstruct palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental changes. The Lago Chungará (Andean Altiplano, 18°15 ′ S, 69°10 ′ W, 4520 masl) diatomaceous laminated sediments are made up of white and green multiannual rhythmites. White laminae were formed during short-term diatom super-blooms, and are composed almost exclusively of large-sized Cyclostephanos andinus.These diatoms bloom during mixing events when recycled nutrients from the bottom waters are brought to the surface and/or when nutrients are introduced from the catchment during periods of strong runoff. Conversely, the green laminae are thought to have been deposited over several years and are composed of a mixture of diatoms (mainly smaller valves of C. andinus and Discostella stelligera ) and organic matter. These green laminae reflect the lake's hydrological recovery from a status favouring the diatom super-blooms (white laminae) towards baseline conditions. δ 18 O diatom and δ 13 C diatom from 11,990 to 11,530 cal years BP allow us to reconstruct shifts in the precipitation/evaporation ratio and changes in the lake water dissolved carbon concentration, respectively. δ 18 O diatom values indicate that white laminae formation occurred mainly during low lake level stages, whereas green laminae formation generally occurred during high lake level stages. The isotope and chronostratigraphical data together suggest that white laminae deposition is caused by extraordinary environmental events. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and changes in solar activity are the most likely climate forcing mechanisms that could trigger such events, favouring hydrological changes at interannual-to-decadal scale. This study demonstrates the potential for laminated lake sediments to document extreme pluriannual events.

Pakettitoimitusten logistinen kehittäminen asiakaslähtöiseksi

Työn tavoitteena oli selvittää mahdollisuuksia ohjata pakettia uudelleen sen jälkeen, kun lähettäjä on luovuttanut paketin Postin kuljetettavaksi. Lähtökohtana työlle oli, että uudelleenohjaus suoritettaisiin matkapuhelimella, koska se suuren penetraationsa ansiosta tavoittaa mahdollisimman monen vastaanottajan. Ensin selvitettiin nykyinen Postin pakettiprosessin toiminta haastattelemalla asiantuntijoita ja perehtyen toiminnan kuvauksiin. Työssä pyrittiin ottamaan asiakaslähtöinen näkökanta, jonka pohjaksi tutustuttiin Postille tehtyihin kattaviin asiakastutkimuksiin. Asiakkaiden tarpeet kasvavat ja muuttuvat entistä yksilöllisimmiksi. Paketin uudelleenohjauksella voitaisiin asiakkaan toivomuksesta muuttaa paketin toimitusosoitetta, -aikaa tai tehdä kotiinkuljetustilaus. Asiakasta informoidaan saapuvasta lähetyksestä saapumisilmoituksella, jonka perusteella uudelleenohjaus voitaisiin tehdä. Toinen tapa olisi kertoa ennakkoon, että haluaa kaikki saapuvat lähetykset vastaanottaa tietyllä tavalla haluttuna ajankohtana. Uudelleenohjaus ei ole teknisesti vaikeaa, mutta toiminnallisen prosessin aikaansaaminen on vaikea tehtävä. Paketin uudelleenohjaus on varteenotettava mahdollisuus luoda Postin asiakkaille lisäarvoa ja yksilöllistä palvelua. Se vaatii kuitenkin pakettiprosessin muutoksia niin lähettäjälle, vastaanottajalle kuin Postille.

New Climate Change Related EC Directives and Their Interrelations to Green Electricity and Certificate Practices

Työn päätavoite on tutkia vihreän sähkön ja sertifikaattien kaupan ja EY:n uusien ilmastonmuutosta koskevien direktiivien ja direktiiviehdotusten välisiä yhteyksiä. Tutkimuksessa käsitellään direktiiviä sähköntuotannosta uusiutuvilla energialähteillä ja direktiiviehdotuksia Euroopan Unionin alueen päästökaupasta sekä yhdistetyn sähkön ja lämmön tuotannon lisäämisestä. Työ keskittyy erään suomalaisen metsäteollisuusyrityksen toimiin ilmastonmuutoksen hidastamiseksi. Tutkimus keskittyy pääosin EU:n suunnitelmaan aloittaa Unionin jäsenvaltioiden välinen päästökauppa, koska tämä järjestelmä tulee toteutuessaan olemaan teollisuuden kannalta merkittävä. Tilannetta on analysoitu neljän sellu- ja paperitehtaan hiilidioksidipäästölaskelmien avulla. Työssä kehitettyjä laskumalleja voidaan käyttää avuksi yhtiön muilla tehtailla. Tämän lisäksi työssä on luotu malli energiainvestointien arvioimiseksi tulevaisuudessa ottamalla päästöoikeuden hinnan vaikutus huomioon. Päästökaupan vaikutukset pohjoismaisilla vapautuneilla sähkömarkkinoilla on analysoity, koska teollinen sähkönhankinta on suuresti riippuvainen tästä markkinasta. Suomen metsäteollisuuden oma yhdistetty sähkön ja lämmön tuotanto erityisesti uusiutuvista energialähteistä tulee olemaan entistäkin tärkeämpää tiukentuvassa toimintaympäristössä. Tällä hetkellä on käynnissä kokeilu lisäarvon saamiseksi omalle sähköntuotannolle. Tällä haetaan kokemuksia ja valmiutta tulevaa päästökauppaa varten.