Do preference reversals generalise? Results on ambiguity and loss aversion

Preference reversals are frequently observed in the lab, but almost all designs use completely transparent prospects, which are rarely features of decision making elsewhere. This raises questions of external validity. We test the robustness of the phenomenon to gambles that incorporate realistic ambiguity in both payoffs and probabilities. In addition, we test a recent explanation of preference reversals by loss aversion, which would also restrict the incidence of reversals outside the lab. According to this account, reversals occur largely because the valuation task endows subject with a gamble, activating loss aversion. This contrasts with the choice task, where the reference point is pre-experiment wealth. We test this explanation by holding the reference point constant. Our evidence suggests that reversals are only slightly diminished with ambiguity. We find no evidence supporting their explanation by loss aversion.

Building the foundations for a market-oriented planning system in Bulgaria

Planning is highly conditioned by the relationships between the market, state and politics. This becomes particularly clear in looking at the changes taking place in the countries of the former Communist block as they attempt to establish a new set of relationships. The old power structures have been dislodged and old laws discarded. This paper examines the situation in Bulgaria and explores the preconditions for setting up a new planning system there. The first section outlines the political changes since 1989 and shows how political instability has effected the pace of change. The establishment of a market in land and property is a second precondition for the planning system there and moves in this direction are presented, including restitution policies. Finally the issues raised by the early attempts towards a new planning system are discussed. This paper is the first of a series looking at the countries of Eastern Europe and the author would welcome comments from others working in this field.

Is there a place for property in the multi-asset portfolio?

The case for property has typically rested on the application of modern portfolio theory (MPT), in that property has been shown to offer increased diversification benefits within a multi asset portfolio without hurting portfolio returns especially for lower risk portfolios. However this view is based upon the use of historic, usually appraisal based, data for property. Recent research suggests strongly that such data significantly underestimates the risk characteristics of property, because appraisals explicitly or implicitly smooth out much of the real volatility in property returns. This paper examines the portfolio diversification effects of including property in a multi-asset portfolio, using UK appraisal based (smoothed) data and several derived de-smoothed series. Having considered the effects of de-smoothing, we then consider the inclusion of a further low risk asset (cash) in order to investigate further whether property's place in a low risk portfolio is maintained. The conclusions of this study are that the previous supposed benefits of including property have been overstated. Although property may still have a place in a 'balanced' institutional portfolio, the case for property needs to be reassessed and not be based simplistically on the application of MPT.

Incorporation of a S-glycosidic linkage into a glyconucleoside changes the conformational preference of both furanose sugars

A glyconucleoside containing a thioglycoside linkage, namely 1-(3-S-beta-D-ribofuranosyl-2,3-dideoxy-3-thio-beta-D-ribofuranosyl)-thy mine, has been prepared through condensation of a suitably protected derivative of 3'-thiothymidine with an activated ribose sugar. NMR has been used to study the conformation of the S-disaccharide and the unmodified O-disaccharide. A full pseudorotational analysis showed that for the S-disaccharide, the ribose and deoxy ribose sugars have a preference for the south and north pucker, respectively; which is the reverse of what is seen for the O-disaccharide. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A double-decker bus, an elephant and 300 Girl Guides: analyzing 'space' and 'place' in Blue Peter

This article draws upon Karen Lury's definitions of 'space' and 'place' in relation to the BBC children's programme Blue Peter (1958–present). Through an analysis of the Blue Peter studio over the past 53 years, Amanda Beauchamp highlights its evolution from a 'space' to a 'place' within the history of children's television. Her article considers how the Blue Peter studio's 'infinite nature' was achieved, alongside the role it played in creating the programme institution. She addresses the impact of major changes in the studio layout since 2005, when the studio went from being 'tardis-like' to a 'cosy cubbyhole'. Amanda concludes by questioning the impact that this change has had on programme identity and whether the 'place' that pre-2005 Blue Peter took 47 years to create has been compromised.

Place making in Hellenistic Athens: beyond decline and foreign patronage

The study of cities is integral to the study of the Hellenistic Age, the period bounded by the deaths of two legendary rulers: Alexander in 323 BC and Kleopatra in 30 BC. Modern scholarship has followed in the footsteps of Johann-Gustav Droysen, who coined the term 'Hellenistic' in the nineteenth century and associated it with the diffusion of Greek culture through the founding of new cities in the East by Alexander and his successors. Hellenistic Athens, traditionally discussed under the rubric of its Classical legacy and/or in contrast with thriving cities, such as Pergamon, has been presented as a backwater exemplifying the demise of the 'polis'. My objective in this paper is to criticise these negative sentiments by exploring how the built environment of Hellenistic Athens could potentially become an indicator of city vitality.

Empirical test of an agricultural landscape model: the importance of farmer preference for risk aversion and crop complexity

Developing models to predict the effects of social and economic change on agricultural landscapes is an important challenge. Model development often involves making decisions about which aspects of the system require detailed description and which are reasonably insensitive to the assumptions. However, important components of the system are often left out because parameter estimates are unavailable. In particular, measurements of the relative influence of different objectives, such as risk, environmental management, on farmer decision making, have proven difficult to quantify. We describe a model that can make predictions of land use on the basis of profit alone or with the inclusion of explicit additional objectives. Importantly, our model is specifically designed to use parameter estimates for additional objectives obtained via farmer interviews. By statistically comparing the outputs of this model with a large farm-level land-use data set, we show that cropping patterns in the United Kingdom contain a significant contribution from farmer’s preference for objectives other than profit. In particular, we found that risk aversion had an effect on the accuracy of model predictions, whereas preference for a particular number of crops grown was less important. While nonprofit objectives have frequently been identified as factors in farmers’ decision making, our results take this analysis further by demonstrating the relationship between these preferences and actual cropping patterns.