Essays in revealed preference theory and behavioral economics

Time, risk, and attention are all integral to economic decision making. The aim of this work is to understand those key components of decision making using a variety of approaches: providing axiomatic characterizations to investigate time discounting, generating measures of visual attention to infer consumers' intentions, and examining data from unique field settings.

Chapter 2, co-authored with Federico Echenique and Kota Saito, presents the first revealed-preference characterizations of exponentially-discounted utility model and its generalizations. My characterizations provide non-parametric revealed-preference tests. I apply the tests to data from a recent experiment, and find that the axiomatization delivers new insights on a dataset that had been analyzed by traditional parametric methods.

Chapter 3, co-authored with Min Jeong Kang and Colin Camerer, investigates whether "pre-choice" measures of visual attention improve in prediction of consumers' purchase intentions. We measure participants' visual attention using eyetracking or mousetracking while they make hypothetical as well as real purchase decisions. I find that different patterns of visual attention are associated with hypothetical and real decisions. I then demonstrate that including information on visual attention improves prediction of purchase decisions when attention is measured with mousetracking.

Chapter 4 investigates individuals' attitudes towards risk in a high-stakes environment using data from a TV game show, Jeopardy!. I first quantify players' subjective beliefs about answering questions correctly. Using those beliefs in estimation, I find that the representative player is risk averse. I then find that trailing players tend to wager more than "folk" strategies that are known among the community of contestants and fans, and this tendency is related to their confidence. I also find gender differences: male players take more risk than female players, and even more so when they are competing against two other male players.

Chapter 5, co-authored with Colin Camerer, investigates the dynamics of the favorite-longshot bias (FLB) using data on horse race betting from an online exchange that allows bettors to trade "in-play." I find that probabilistic forecasts implied by market prices before start of the races are well-calibrated, but the degree of FLB increases significantly as the events approach toward the end.

Conditioned responses in the reticular formation

Unit activity was recorded from the midbrain and pons of 40 freely moving rats in an appetitive classical conditioning situation. Responses to auditory stimuli were observed from 100 units before and during a conditioning procedure in which presentation of food occurred 1 sec after the onset of the auditory stimulus. Conditioned unit responses (i.e., spike rate accelerations or decelerations) were considered to be positive when 1) no similar responses appeared prior to conditioning, and 2) latencies were equal to or less than those of sensory responses derived from the inferior colliculus. Such short latency conditioned unit responses were recorded from 11 probes located in the mid-lateral pert of the ventral region of the brain stem. This region was differentiated from paramedian, far lateral and dorsal parts of the brain stem reticular formation. Conditioned unit responses of considerably longer latencies were recorded from 76 probe located in these other regions. Among the longer latency responses interesting differences appeared in experiments conducted after the first conditioning series was completed. With additional training, units in the "reticular activating system" of midbrain and pons tended to yield stabilized responses in the early portion of the CS-US interval closely related in time to the orientation responses evoked by the CS. In contrast, the responses of units in the limbic midbrain tended to stabilize in the later part of the CS-US interval closely related in time to preparatory responses tied to the US. During extinction when the auditory stimulus was no longer followed by presentation of food, many of the responses were reduced to their pre-conditioning levels. However, there was a tendency for units which had displayed short latency responses on the first conditioning day to be more resistant to extinction than units which had displayed longer latency conditioned responses. The data were interpreted as indicating a local correlate of learning in the reticular formation of midbrain end pons and a separation of the midbrain system into at least two areas: 1) the classical "reticular activating system" related to orienting reactions, and 2) the limbic midbrain areas related to drives and rewards. Because the ventral and mid-lateral area with very short latency conditioned responses was not clearly tied to either of these; it was considered as possibly representing a third division.