Artificial selection for food colour preferences

Colour is an important factor in food detection and acquisition by animals using visually based foraging. Colour can be used to identify the suitability of a food source or improve the efficiency of food detection, and can even be linked to mate choice. Food colour preferences are known to exist, but whether these preferences are heritable and how these preferences evolve is unknown. Using the freshwater fish Poecilia reticulata, we artificially selected for chase behaviour towards two different-coloured moving stimuli: red and blue spots. A response to selection was only seen for chase behaviours towards the red, with realized heritabilities ranging from 0.25 to 0.30. Despite intense selection, no significant chase response was recorded for the blue-selected lines. This lack of response may be due to the motion-detection mechanism in the guppy visual system and may have novel implications for the evolvability of responses to colour-related signals. The behavioural response to several colours after five generations of selection suggests that the colour opponency system of the fish may regulate the response to selection.

People making choices: the support needs and preferences of people with psychosocial disability: project summary

The aim of this project was to improve understanding of the choices that people with psychosocial disability would make about support for priority life goals if they were offered individualised funding packages. This was timely given the inclusion of psychosocial disability in the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), which has been designed to enable Australians with disability the opportunity to exercise choice and control in the pursuit of their goals and the planning and delivery of their supports (Commonwealth of Australia, 2013b).

Asymmetric risk and return: evidence from the Australian Stock Exchange

This paper examines volatility asymmetry in a financial market using a stochastic volatility framework. We use the MCMC method for model estimations. There is evidence of volatility asymmetry in the data. Our asymmetric stochastic volatility in mean model, which nests both asymmetric stochastic volatility (ASV) and stochastic volatility in mean models (SVM), indicates ASV sufficiently captures the risk-return relationship; therefore, augmenting it with volatility in mean does not improve its performance. ASV fits the data better and yields more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than alternatives. We also demonstrate that asymmetry mainly emanates from the systematic parts of returns. As a result, it is more pronounced at the market level and the volatility feedback effect dominates the leverage effect.

Costs and advance directives at the end of life: a case of the ‘Coaching Older Adults and Carers to have their preferences Heard (COACH)’ trial

BACKGROUND: Total costs associated with care for older people nearing the end of life and the cost variations related with end of life care decisions are not well documented in the literature. Healthcare utilisation and associated health care costs for a group of older Australians who entered Transition Care following an acute hospital admission were calculated. Costs were differentiated according to a number of health care decisions and outcomes including advance directives (ADs).

METHODS: Study participants were drawn from the Coaching Older Adults and Carers to have their preferences Heard (COACH) trial funded by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. Data collected included total health care costs, the type of (and when) ADs were completed and the place of death. Two-step endogenous treatment-regression models were employed to test the relationship between costs and a number of variables including completion of ADs.

RESULTS: The trial recruited 230 older adults with mean age 84 years. At the end of the trial, 53 had died and 80 had completed ADs. Total healthcare costs were higher for younger participants and those who had died. No statistically significant association was found between costs and completion of ADs.

CONCLUSION: For our frail study population, the completion of ADs did not have an effect on health care utilisation and costs. Further research is needed to substantiate these findings in larger and more diverse clinical cohorts of older people.

Patient and nurse preferences for nurse handover-using preferences to inform policy: a discrete choice experiment protocol

INTRODUCTION: Nursing bedside handover in hospital has been identified as an opportunity to involve patients and promote patient-centred care. It is important to consider the preferences of both patients and nurses when implementing bedside handover to maximise the successful uptake of this policy. We outline a study which aims to (1) identify, compare and contrast the preferences for various aspects of handover common to nurses and patients while accounting for other factors, such as the time constraints of nurses that may influence these preferences.; (2) identify opportunities for nurses to better involve patients in bedside handover and (3) identify patient and nurse preferences that may challenge the full implementation of bedside handover in the acute medical setting. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We outline the protocol for a discrete choice experiment (DCE) which uses a survey design common to both patients and nurses. We describe the qualitative and pilot work undertaken to design the DCE. We use a D-efficient design which is informed by prior coefficients collected during the pilot phase. We also discuss the face-to-face administration of this survey in a population of acutely unwell, hospitalised patients and describe how data collection challenges have been informed by our pilot phase. Mixed multinomial logit regression analysis will be used to estimate the final results. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has been approved by a university ethics committee as well as two participating hospital ethics committees. Results will be used within a knowledge translation framework to inform any strategies that can be used by nursing staff to improve the uptake of bedside handover. Results will also be disseminated via peer-reviewed journal articles and will be presented at national and international conferences.

Identifying emerging hotel preferences using emerging pattern mining technique

Hotel managers continue to find ways to understand traveler preferences, with the aim of improving their strategic planning, marketing, and product development. Traveler preference is unpredictable for example, hotel guests used to prefer having a telephone in the room, but now favor fast Internet connection. Changes in preference influence the performance of hotel businesses, thus creating the need to identify and address the demands of their guests. Most existing studies focus on current demand attributes and not on emerging ones. Thus, hotel managers may find it difficult to make appropriate decisions in response to changes in travelers' concerns. To address these challenges, this paper adopts Emerging Pattern Mining technique to identify emergent hotel features of interest to international travelers. Data are derived from 118,000 records of online reviews. The methods and findings can help hotel managers gain insights into travelers' interests, enabling the former to gain a better understanding of the rapid changes in tourist preferences.

Enhanced mechanical response of an ultrafine grained Ti-6Al-4V alloy produced through warm symmetric and asymmetric rolling

An equiaxed ultrafine-grained (UFG) microstructure was successfully produced in a Ti-6Al-4V alloy with an average grain size of 110-230. nm through symmetric and asymmetric warm rolling of a martensitic starting microstructure. The UFG material displayed a combination of ultrahigh strength and ductility at room temperature. Compared with the conventional symmetric rolling, the asymmetric rolling process led to a more pronounced effect of microstructure refinement and a higher tensile ductility. The optimum mechanical response was obtained though the asymmetric rolling at 70% reduction, offering an ultimate tensile strength of 1365. MPa and a total elongation of ~23%. Apart from the magnitude of grain refinement, the inclination of basal texture component from the normal towards the rolling direction during asymmetric rolling and possible strain induced β to martensite transformation may concurrently contribute to a remarkable tensile strength-ductility balance.

Modelling human preferences for ranking and collaborative filtering: a probabilistic ordered partition approach

Learning preference models from human generated data is an important task in modern information processing systems. Its popular setting consists of simple input ratings, assigned with numerical values to indicate their relevancy with respect to a specific query. Since ratings are often specified within a small range, several objects may have the same ratings, thus creating ties among objects for a given query. Dealing with this phenomena presents a general problem of modelling preferences in the presence of ties and being query-specific. To this end, we present in this paper a novel approach by constructing probabilistic models directly on the collection of objects exploiting the combinatorial structure induced by the ties among them. The proposed probabilistic setting allows exploration of a super-exponential combinatorial state-space with unknown numbers of partitions and unknown order among them. Learning and inference in such a large state-space are challenging, and yet we present in this paper efficient algorithms to perform these tasks. Our approach exploits discrete choice theory, imposing generative process such that the finite set of objects is partitioned into subsets in a stagewise procedure, and thus reducing the state-space at each stage significantly. Efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are then presented for the proposed models. We demonstrate that the model can potentially be trained in a large-scale setting of hundreds of thousands objects using an ordinary computer. In fact, in some special cases with appropriate model specification, our models can be learned in linear time. We evaluate the models on two application areas: (i) document ranking with the data from the Yahoo! challenge and (ii) collaborative filtering with movie data. We demonstrate that the models are competitive against state-of-the-arts.

Biased experts and similarity based weights in preferences aggregation

In a group decision making setting, we consider the potential impact an expert can have on the overall ranking by providing a biased assessment of the alternatives that differs substantially from the majority opinion. In the framework of similarity based averaging functions, we show that some alternative approaches to weighting the experts' inputs during the aggregation process can minimize the influence the biased expert is able to exert.

A discrete choice experiment to examine the preferences of patients with cancer and their willingness to pay for different types of health care appointments

BACKGROUND: This study sought to understand the preferences of patients with cancer and the trade-offs between appointment attributes using discrete choice experiment (DCE). METHODS AND STUDY DESIGN: Patients with cancer at 3 hospitals completed a self-administered DCE. Each scenario described 6 attributes: expertise of health care professionals (HCPs), familiarity of doctors with patients' medical history, waiting time, accompaniment by family/friends, travel time, and out-of-pocket costs. Patient preferences were estimated using logistic regression. Willingness to pay (WTP) estimates were derived from regression coefficients. RESULTS: Of 512 patients contacted, 185 returned the questionnaire. The mean age was 61 years, and 60% of respondents were female. The mean time since cancer diagnosis was 34 months, 90% had received treatment; and 61% had early-stage disease. The most important attributes were expertise and familiarity of doctors with patients' medical history; distance traveled was least likely to influence patient preferences. The WTP analysis estimated that patients were willing to pay $680 (95% CI, 470-891) for an appointment with a specialist, $571 (95% CI, 388-754) for doctors familiar with their history, $422 (95% CI, 262-582) for shorter waiting times, $399 (95% CI, 249-549) to be accompanied by family/friends, and $301 (95% CI, 162-441) for shorter traveling times. Male patients had a stronger preference for accompaniment by family/friends. The expertise of HCP was the most important attribute for patients regardless of geographic remoteness. CONCLUSIONS: Our study can assist the development of patient-centered health care models that improve patient access to experienced HCPs, support the role of primary care providers during the cancer journey, and educate patients about the roles of non-oncology HCPs to cope with increasing demand for cancer care.

Asymmetric oil shocks and external balances of major oil exporting and importing countries

This study investigates the effects of oil price shocks on three measures of oil exporters' and oil importers' external balances: total trade balance, oil trade balance and non-oil trade balance. We employ three second-generation heterogeneous linear panel models and one recently developed non-linear panel estimation technique that allows for cross-sectional dependence. With respect to 28 major oil exporting countries, an increase in oil prices leads to an improved real oil trade balance, although it is detrimental to non-oil and total trade balances. This finding might be due to the expenditure effect arising from increases in proceeds from oil exports. A decrease in oil prices is found to be beneficial for both total and oil trade balances in these oil exporting countries. Forty major oil importers seem to be increasingly shielded from positive oil shocks over the 1970s and 1980s; however, they must worry about oil price declines. A decline in oil prices has a negative impact on both total and real oil trade balances resulting from increased oil imports in emerging economies. Hence, a decline in oil prices is beneficial to oil exporters due to the quantity effect outweighing the price effect, while for oil importers a stable oil price is more desirable than a price decline. These results are important to take into account if we are to gain a full understanding on the magnitude of the trade and macroeconomic effects of oil price changes and what the policy responses should be.

Qualitative assessment of bubble behaviour for central and asymmetric injection in 2D gas-solid fluidized bed using image analysis technique and CFD modelling

Bubble characteristics such as shape, size, and trajectory control the hydrodynamics and therefore heat transfer in fluidized bed reactors. Thus understanding these characteristics is very important for the design and scaleup of fluidized beds. An earlier developed Eulerian-Eulerian two-fluid model for simulating dense gas–solid two-phase flow has been used to compare the experimental data in a pseudo-two-dimensional (2-D) bed. Bubbles are injected asymmetrically by locating the nozzle at proximity to the wall, thus presenting the effect wall has on asymmetrical injection as compared to symmetrical injection. In this work, a digital image analysis technique was developed to study the bubble behaviour in a two-dimensional bubbling bed. The high-speed photography reveals an asymmetric wake formation during detachment indicating an early onset of mixing process. The wall forces acts tangentially on thebubble and has a significant impact on the bubble shape, neck formation during detachment and its trajectory through the bed. Larger bubbles drifting away from the centre with longer paths are observed. This qualitative behaviour is well predicted by CFD modelling. Asymmetric injection can significantly influence the heat and mass transfer characteristics.

Asymmetric self-learning for tackling Twitter spam drift

Spam has become a critical problem on Twitter. In order to stop spammers, security companies apply blacklisting services to filter spam links. However, over 90% victims will visit a new malicious link before it is blocked by blacklists. To eliminate the limitation of blacklists, researchers have proposed a number of statistical features based mechanisms, and applied machine learning techniques to detect Twitter spam. In our labelled large dataset, we observe that the statistical properties of spam tweets vary over time, and thus the performance of existing ML based classifiers are poor. This phenomenon is referred as 'Twitter Spam Drift'. In order to tackle this problem, we carry out deep analysis of 1 million spam tweets and 1 million non-spam tweets, and propose an asymmetric self-learning (ASL) approach. The proposed ASL can discover new information of changed tweeter spam and incorporate it into classifier training process. A number of experiments are performed to evaluate the ASL approach. The results show that the ASL approach can be used to significantly improve the spam detection accuracy of using traditional ML algorithms.

Modelling personal preferences for Top-N movie recommendations

Modelling the temporal dynamics of personal preferences is still under-developed despite the rapid development of personalization. In this paper, we observe that the user preference styles tend to change regularly following certain patterns in the context of movie recommendation systems. Therefore, we propose a Preference Pattern model to capture the user preference styles and their temporal dynamics, and apply this model to improve the accuracy of the Top-N movie recommendations. Precisely, a preference pattern is defined as a set of user preference styles sorted in a time order. The basic idea is to model user preference styles and their temporal dynamics by constructing a representative subspace with an Expectation-Maximization (EM)-like algorithm, which works in an iterative fashion by refining the global and the personal preference styles simultaneously. Then, the degree which the recommendations match the active user's preference styles, can be estimated by measuring its reconstruction error from its projection on the representative subspace. The experiment results indicate that the proposed model is robust to the data sparsity problem, and can significantly outperform the state-of-the-art algorithms on the Top-N movie recommendations in terms of accuracy.