Markets and microstructure

This document contains three papers examining the microstructure of financial interaction in development and market settings. I first examine the industrial organization of financial exchanges, specifically limit order markets. In this section, I perform a case study of Google stock surrounding a surprising earnings announcement in the 3rd quarter of 2009, uncovering parameters that describe information flows and liquidity provision. I then explore the disbursement process for community-driven development projects. This section is game theoretic in nature, using a novel three-player ultimatum structure. I finally develop econometric tools to simulate equilibrium and identify equilibrium models in limit order markets.

In chapter two, I estimate an equilibrium model using limit order data, finding parameters that describe information and liquidity preferences for trading. As a case study, I estimate the model for Google stock surrounding an unexpected good-news earnings announcement in the 3rd quarter of 2009. I find a substantial decrease in asymmetric information prior to the earnings announcement. I also simulate counterfactual dealer markets and find empirical evidence that limit order markets perform more efficiently than do their dealer market counterparts.

In chapter three, I examine Community-Driven Development. Community-Driven Development is considered a tool empowering communities to develop their own aid projects. While evidence has been mixed as to the effectiveness of CDD in achieving disbursement to intended beneficiaries, the literature maintains that local elites generally take control of most programs. I present a three player ultimatum game which describes a potential decentralized aid procurement process. Players successively split a dollar in aid money, and the final player--the targeted community member--decides between whistle blowing or not. Despite the elite capture present in my model, I find conditions under which money reaches targeted recipients. My results describe a perverse possibility in the decentralized aid process which could make detection of elite capture more difficult than previously considered. These processes may reconcile recent empirical work claiming effectiveness of the decentralized aid process with case studies which claim otherwise.

In chapter four, I develop in more depth the empirical and computational means to estimate model parameters in the case study in chapter two. I describe the liquidity supplier problem and equilibrium among those suppliers. I then outline the analytical forms for computing certainty-equivalent utilities for the informed trader. Following this, I describe a recursive algorithm which facilitates computing equilibrium in supply curves. Finally, I outline implementation of the Method of Simulated Moments in this context, focusing on Indirect Inference and formulating the pseudo model.

Essays in mechanism design

This dissertation contains three essays on mechanism design. The common goal of these essays is to assist in the solution of different resource allocation problems where asymmetric information creates obstacles to the efficient allocation of resources. In each essay, we present a mechanism that satisfactorily solves the resource allocation problem and study some of its properties. In our first essay, ”Combinatorial Assignment under Dichotomous Preferences”, we present a class of problems akin to time scheduling without a pre-existing time grid, and propose a mechanism that is efficient, strategy-proof and envy-free. Our second essay, ”Monitoring Costs and the Management of Common-Pool Resources”, studies what can happen to an existing mechanism — the individual tradable quotas (ITQ) mechanism, also known as the cap-and-trade mechanism — when quota enforcement is imperfect and costly. Our third essay, ”Vessel Buyback”, coauthored with John O. Ledyard, presents an auction design that can be used to buy back excess capital in overcapitalized industries.

The design and synthesis of a true, heterogeneous, asymmetric catalyst

This work describes the design and synthesis of a true, heterogeneous, asymmetric catalyst. The catalyst consists of a thin film that resides on a high-surface- area hydrophilic solid and is composed of a chiral, hydrophilic organometallic complex dissolved in ethylene glycol. Reactions of prochiral organic reactants take place predominantly at the ethylene glycol-bulk organic interface.

The synthesis of this new heterogeneous catalyst is accomplished in a series of designed steps. A novel, water-soluble, tetrasulfonated 2,2'-bis (diphenylphosphino)-1,1'-binaphthyl (BINAP-4S0_3Na) is synthesized by direct sulfonation of 2,2'-bis(diphenylphosphino)-1,1'-binaphthyl (BINAP). The rhodium (I) complex of BINAP-4SO_3Na is prepared and is shown to be the first homogeneous catalyst to perform asymmetric reductions of prochiral 2-acetamidoacrylic acids in neat water with enantioselectivities as high as those obtained in non-aqueous solvents. The ruthenium (II) complex, [Ru(BINAP-4SO_3Na)(benzene)Cl]Cl is also synthesized and exhibits a broader substrate specificity as well as higher enantioselectivities for the homogeneous asymmetric reduction of prochiral 2-acylamino acid precursors in water. Aquation of the ruthenium-chloro bond in water is found to be detrimental to the enantioselectivity with some substrates. Replacement of water by ethylene glycol results in the same high e.e's as those found in neat methanol. The ruthenium complex is impregnated onto a controlled pore-size glass CPG-240 by the incipient wetness technique. Anhydrous ethylene glycol is used as the immobilizing agent in this heterogeneous catalyst, and a non-polar 1:1 mixture of chloroform and cyclohexane is employed as the organic phase.

Asymmetric reduction of 2-(6'-methoxy-2'-naphthyl)acrylic acid to the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory agent, naproxen, is accomplished with this heterogeneous catalyst at a third of the rate observed in homogeneous solution with an e.e. of 96% at a reaction temperature of 3°C and 1,400 psig of hydrogen. No leaching of the ruthenium complex into the bulk organic phase is found at a detection limit of 32 ppb. Recycling of the catalyst is possible without any loss in enantioselectivity. Long-term stability of this new heterogeneous catalyst is proven by a self-assembly test. That is, under the reaction conditions, the individual components of the present catalytic system self-assemble into the supported-catalyst configuration.

The strategies outlined here for the design and synthesis of this new heterogeneous catalyst are general, and can hopefully be applied to the development of other heterogeneous, asymmetric catalysts.

Palladium-catalyzed asymmetric allylic alkylation: insights, application toward cyclopentanoid and cycloheptanoid molecules, and the total synthesis of several daucane sesquiterpenes

The asymmetric construction of quaternary stereocenters is a topic of great interest in the organic chemistry community given their prevalence in natural products and biologically active molecules. Over the last decade, the Stoltz group has pursued the synthesis of this challenging motif via a palladium-catalyzed allylic alkylation using chiral phosphinooxazoline (PHOX) ligands. Recent results indicate that the alkylation of lactams and imides consistently proceeds with enantioselectivities substantially higher than any other substrate class previously examined in this system. This observation prompted exploration of the characteristics that distinguish these molecules as superior alkylation substrates, resulting in newfound insights and marked improvements in the allylic alkylation of carbocyclic compounds.

General routes to cyclopentanoid and cycloheptanoid core structures have been developed that incorporate the palladium-catalyzed allylic alkylation as a key transformation. The unique reactivity of α-quaternary vinylogous esters upon addition of hydride or organometallic reagents enables divergent access to γ-quaternary acylcyclopentenes or cycloheptenones through respective ring contraction or carbonyl transposition pathways. Derivatization of the resulting molecules provides a series of mono-, bi-, and tricyclic systems that can serve as valuable intermediates for the total synthesis of complex natural products.

The allylic alkylation and ring contraction methodology has been employed to prepare variably functionalized bicyclo[5.3.0]decane molecules and enables the enantioselective total syntheses of daucene, daucenal, epoxydaucenal B, and 14-p-anisoyloxydauc-4,8-diene. This route overcomes the challenge of accessing β-substituted acylcyclopentenes by employing a siloxyenone to effect the Grignard addition and ring opening in a single step. Subsequent ring-closing metathesis and aldol reactions form the hydroazulene core of these targets. Derivatization of a key enone intermediate allows access to either the daucane sesquiterpene or sphenobolane diterpene carbon skeletons, as well as other oxygenated scaffolds.

Advances in organic catalysis: the design of a novel asymmetric, organocatalytic intramolecular Diels Alder reaction

No abstract.

Enantioselective synthesis of pyrroloindolines and tryptophan derivatives by an asymmetric protonation reaction

Pyrroloindoline and unnatural tryptophan motifs are important targets for synthesis based on their incorporation into a diverse array of biologically active natural products. Both types of alkaloids have also found applications as chiral catalysts and tryptophan derivatives are commonly employed as biological probes. On account of their applications, these frameworks have inspired the development of numerous enantioselective, catalytic reactions. In particular, the past few years have witnessed an impressive number of novel approaches for pyrroloindoline formation.

The first project described herein involves our contribution to pyrroloindoline research. We have developed an (R)-BINOL•SnCl₄-catalyzed formal (3 + 2) cycloaddition reaction between 3-substituted indoles and 2-amidoacrylates that affords pyrroloindoline-2-carboxylates bearing an all-carbon quaternary center. Mechanistic studies have elucidated that the enantiodetermining step is a highly face-selective catalyst-controlled protonation reaction. The subsequent application of this asymmetric protonation strategy to the synthesis of a variety of enantioenriched tryptophan derivatives is also discussed.

Use of pseudoephedrine as a practical chiral auxiliary for asymmetric synthesis

The use of pseudoephedrine as a practical chiral auxiliary for asymmetric synthesis is describe. Both enantiomers of pseudoephedrine are inexpensive commodity chemicals and can be N-acylated in high yields to form tertiary amides. In the presence of lithium chloride, the enolates of the corresponding pseudoephedrine amides undergo highly diastereoselective a1kylations with a wide range of alkyl halides to afford α-substituted products in high yields. These products can then be transformed in a single operation into highly enantiomerically enriched carboxylic acids, alcohols, and aldehydes. Lithium amidotrihydroborate (LAB) is shown to be a powerful reductant for the selective reduction of tertiary amides in general and pseudoephedrine amides in particular to form primary alcohols.

The development of an asymmetric palladium-catalyzed conjugate addition and its application toward the total syntheses of taiwaniaquinoid natural products

The asymmetric synthesis of quaternary stereocenters remains a challenging problem in organic synthesis. Past work from the Stoltz laboratory has resulted in methodology to install quaternary stereocenters α- or γ- to carbonyl compounds. Thus, the asymmetric synthesis of β-quaternary stereocenters was a desirable objective, and was accomplished by engineering the palladium-catalyzed addition of arylmetal organometallic reagents to α,β-unsaturated conjugate acceptors.

Herein, we described the rational design of a palladium-catalyzed conjugate addition reactions utilizing a catalyst derived from palladium(II) trifluoroacetate and pyridinooxazole ligands. This reaction is highly tolerant of protic solvents and oxygen atmosphere, making it a practical and operationally simple reaction. The mild conditions facilitate a remarkably high functional group tolerance, including carbonyls, halogens, and fluorinated functional groups. Furthermore, the reaction catalyzed conjugate additions with high enantioselectivity with conjugate acceptors of 5-, 6-, and 7-membered ring sizes. Extension of the methodology toward the asymmetric synthesis of flavanone products is presented, as well.

A computational and experimental investigation into the reaction mechanism provided a stereochemical model for enantioinduction, whereby the α-methylene protons adjacent the enone carbonyl clashes with the tert-butyl groups of the chiral ligand. Additionally, it was found that the addition of water and ammonium hexafluorophosphate significantly increases the reaction rate without sacrificing enantioselectivity. The synergistic effects of these additives allowed for the reaction to proceed at a lower temperature, and thus facilitated expansion of the substrate scope to sensitive functional groups such as protic amides and aryl bromides. Investigations into a scale-up synthesis of the chiral ligand (S)-tert-butylPyOx are also presented. This three-step synthetic route allowed for synthesis of the target compound of greater than 10 g scale.

Finally, the application of the newly developed conjugate addition reaction toward the synthesis of the taiwaniaquinoid class of terpenoid natural products is discussed. The conjugate addition reaction formed the key benzylic quaternary stereocenter in high enantioselectivity, joining together the majority of the carbons in the taiwaniaquinoid scaffold. Efforts toward the synthesis of the B-ring are presented.

Development of Asymmetric Protonation Reactions for the Synthesis of Indoline Alkaloids

Nitrogen-containing heterocycles, such as indolines and pyrroloindolines, are prevalent in a variety of diverse natural products, many of which exhibit remarkable biological activities. These frameworks have inspired innovative research aimed at discovering novel methods for their stereoselective preparation.

We have developed an enantioselective synthesis of pyrroloindolines based on a formal (3 + 2) cycloaddition of indoles and 2-amidoacrylates. This reaction is promoted by (R)-BINOL•SnCl₄; this complex is a Lewis acid-assisted Brønsted acid that effects a highly face-selective catalyst-controlled protonation of an enolate. Mechanistic studies also determined that the initial product of this reaction is an indolinium ion, which upon aqueous workup undergoes cyclization to the pyrroloindoline.

Based on this result, we investigated alternative nucleophiles to trap the indolinium ion. First, addition of sodium borohydride to the optimized reaction conditions yields indoline-containing amino acid derivatives.

Next, carbon nucleophiles were explored. Indole substrates incorporating a tethered alkene were exposed to the conditions for the formal (3 + 2) cycloaddition, resulting in a conjugate addition/asymmetric protonation/Prins cyclization cascade. In this transformation, the indolinium ion is attacked by the olefin, and the resulting carbocation is quenched by a chloride ion. Zirconium tetrachloride was found to be the optimal Lewis acid. Stoichiometric proton and chloride sources were also found to be crucial for reactivity.

Essays in Behavioral Decision Theory

This thesis studies decision making under uncertainty and how economic agents respond to information. The classic model of subjective expected utility and Bayesian updating is often at odds with empirical and experimental results; people exhibit systematic biases in information processing and often exhibit aversion to ambiguity. The aim of this work is to develop simple models that capture observed biases and study their economic implications.

In the first chapter I present an axiomatic model of cognitive dissonance, in which an agent's response to information explicitly depends upon past actions. I introduce novel behavioral axioms and derive a representation in which beliefs are directionally updated. The agent twists the information and overweights states in which his past actions provide a higher payoff. I then characterize two special cases of the representation. In the first case, the agent distorts the likelihood ratio of two states by a function of the utility values of the previous action in those states. In the second case, the agent's posterior beliefs are a convex combination of the Bayesian belief and the one which maximizes the conditional value of the previous action. Within the second case a unique parameter captures the agent's sensitivity to dissonance, and I characterize a way to compare sensitivity to dissonance between individuals. Lastly, I develop several simple applications and show that cognitive dissonance contributes to the equity premium and price volatility, asymmetric reaction to news, and belief polarization.

The second chapter characterizes a decision maker with sticky beliefs. That is, a decision maker who does not update enough in response to information, where enough means as a Bayesian decision maker would. This chapter provides axiomatic foundations for sticky beliefs by weakening the standard axioms of dynamic consistency and consequentialism. I derive a representation in which updated beliefs are a convex combination of the prior and the Bayesian posterior. A unique parameter captures the weight on the prior and is interpreted as the agent's measure of belief stickiness or conservatism bias. This parameter is endogenously identified from preferences and is easily elicited from experimental data.

The third chapter deals with updating in the face of ambiguity, using the framework of Gilboa and Schmeidler. There is no consensus on the correct way way to update a set of priors. Current methods either do not allow a decision maker to make an inference about her priors or require an extreme level of inference. In this chapter I propose and axiomatize a general model of updating a set of priors. A decision maker who updates her beliefs in accordance with the model can be thought of as one that chooses a threshold that is used to determine whether a prior is plausible, given some observation. She retains the plausible priors and applies Bayes' rule. This model includes generalized Bayesian updating and maximum likelihood updating as special cases.