Synopsis of researcher meeting -- Bottlenose Dolphin Health & Risk Assessment Project, February 22-24, 2005

A meeting was convened on February 22-24, 2005 in Charleston, South Carolina to bring together researchers collaborating on the Bottlenose Dolphin Health and Risk Assessment (HERA) Project to review and discuss preliminary health-related findings from captured dolphins during 2003 and 2004 in the Indian River Lagoon (IRL), FL and Charleston (CHS), SC. Over 30 researchers with diverse research expertise representing government, academic and marine institutions participated in the 2-1/2 day meeting. The Bottlenose Dolphin HERA Project is a comprehensive, integrated, multi-disciplinary research program designed to assess environmental and anthropogenic stressors, as well as the health and long-term viability of Atlantic bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus). Standardized and comprehensive protocols are being used to evaluate dolphin health in the coastal ecosystems in the IRL and CHS. The Bottlenose Dolphin Health and Risk Assessment (HERA) Project was initiated in 2003 by Dr. Patricia Fair at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Ocean Service/Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular Research and Dr. Gregory Bossart at the Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institution under NMFS Scientific Research Permit No. 998-1678-00 issued to Dr. Bossart. Towards this end, this study focuses on developing tools and techniques to better identify health threats to these dolphins, and to develop links to possible environmental stressors. Thus, the primary objective of the Dolphin HERA Project is to measure the overall health and as well as the potential health hazards for dolphin populations in the two sites by performing screening-level risk assessments using standardized methods. The screening-level assessment involves capture, sampling and release activities during which physical examinations are performed on dolphins and a suite of nonlethal morphologic and clinicopathologic parameters, to be used to develop indices of dolphin health, are collected. Thus far, standardized health assessments have been performed on 155 dolphins during capture-release studies conducted in Years 2003 and 2004 at the two sites. A major collaboration has been established involving numerous individuals and institutions, which provide the project with a broad assessment capability toward accomplishing the goals and objectives of this project.

Fish lost at sea: the effect of soak time on pelagic longline catches

Our analyses of observer records reveal that abundance estimates are strongly influenced by the timing of longline operations in relation to dawn and dusk and soak time— the amount of time that baited hooks are available in the water. Catch data will underestimate the total mortality of several species because hooked animals are “lost at sea.” They fall off, are removed, or escape from the hook before the longline is retrieved. For example, longline segments with soak times of 20 hours were retrieved with fewer skipjack tuna and seabirds than segments with soak times of 5 hours. The mortality of some seabird species is up to 45% higher than previously estimated. The effects of soak time and timing vary considerably between species. Soak time and exposure to dusk periods have strong positive effects on the catch rates of many species. In particular, the catch rates of most shark and billfish species increase with soak time. At the end of longline retrieval, for example, expected catch rates for broadbill swordfish are four times those at the beginning of retrieval. Survival of the animal while it is hooked on the longline appears to be an important factor determining whether it is eventually brought on board the vessel. Catch rates of species that survive being hooked (e.g. blue shark) increase with soak time. In contrast, skipjack tuna and seabirds are usually dead at the time of retrieval. Their catch rates decline with time, perhaps because scavengers can easily remove hooked animals that are dead. The results of our study have important implications for fishery management and assessments that rely on longline catch data. A reduction in soak time since longlining commenced in the 1950s has introduced a systematic bias in estimates of mortality levels and abundance. The abundance of species like seabirds has been over-estimated in recent years. Simple modifications to procedures for data collection, such as recording the number of hooks retrieved without baits, would greatly improve mortality estimates.

A sudden collapse in distribution of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) off southwestern Australia enables an objective re-assessment of biomass estimates

Fishery-independent estimates of spawning biomass (BSP) of the Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) on the south and lower west coasts of Western Australia (WA) were obtained periodically between 1991 and 1999 by using the daily egg production method (DEPM). Ichthyoplankton data collected during these surveys, specifically the presence or absence of S. sagax eggs, were used to investigate trends in the spawning area of S. sagax within each of four regions. The expectation was that trends in BSP and spawning area were positively related. With the DEPM model, estimates of BSP will change proportionally with spawning area if all other variables remain constant. The proportion of positive stations (PPS), i.e., stations with nonzero egg counts — an objective estimator of spawning area — was high for all south coast regions during the early 1990s (a period when the estimated BSP was also high) and then decreased after the mid-1990s. There was a decrease in PPS from the mid-1990s to 1999. The particularly low estimates in 1999 followed a severe epidemic mass mortality of S. sagax throughout their range across southern Australia. Deviations from the expected relationship between BSP and PPS were used to identify uncertainty around estimates of BSP. Because estimation of spawning area is subject to less sampling bias than estimation of BSP, the deviation in the relation between the two provides an objective basis for adjusting some estimates of the latter. Such an approach is particularly useful for fisheries management purposes when sampling problems are suspected to be present. The analysis of PPS undertaken from the same set of samples from which the DEPM estimate is derived will help provide information for stock assessments and for the management of purse-seine fisheries.

Estimating long-term growth-rate changes of southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) from two periods of tag-return data

Southern bluefin tuna (SBT) (Thunnus maccoyii) growth rates are estimated from tag-return data associated with two time periods, the 1960s and 1980s. The traditional von Bertalanffy growth model (VBG) and a two-phase VBG model were fitted to the data by maximum likelihood. The traditional VBG model did not provide an adequate representation of growth in SBT, and the two-phase VBG yielded a significantly better fit. The results indicated that significant change occurs in the pattern of growth in relation to a VBG curve during the juvenile stages of the SBT life cycle, which may be related to the transition from a tightly schooling fish that spends substantial time in near and surface shore waters to one that is found primarily in more offshore and deeper waters. The results suggest that more complex growth models should be considered for other tunas and for other species that show a marked change in habitat use with age. The likelihood surface for the two-phase VBG model was found to be bimodal and some implications of this are investigated. Significant and substantial differences were found in the growth for fish spawned in the 1960s and in the 1980s, such that after age four there is a difference of about one year in the expected age of a fish of similar length which persists over the size range for which meaningful recapture data are available. This difference may be a density-dependent response as a consequence of the marked reduction in the SBT population. Given the key role that estimates of growth have in most stock assessments, the results indicate that there is a need both for the regular monitoring of growth rates and for provisions for changes in growth over time (possibly related to changes in abundance) in the stock assessment models used for SBT and other species.

An approach to estimating rockfish biomass based on larval production, with application to Sebastes jordani

An assessment of the total biomass of shortbelly rockfish (Sebastes jordani) off the central California coast is presented that is based on a spatially extensive but temporally restricted ichthyoplankton survey conducted during the 1991 spawning season. Contemporaneous samples of adults were obtained by trawl sampling in the study region. Daily larval production (7.56 × 1010 larvae/d) and the larval mortality rate (Z=0.11/d) during the cruise were estimated from a larval “catch curve,” wherein the logarithm of total age-specific larval abundance was regressed against larval age. For this analysis, larval age compositions at each of the 150 sample sites were determined by examination of otolith microstructure from subsampled larvae (n=2203), which were weighted by the polygonal Sette-Ahlstrom area surrounding each station. Female population weight-specific fecundity was estimated through a life table analysis that incorporated sex-specific differences in adult growth rate, female maturity, fecundity, and natural mortality (M). The resulting statistic (102.17 larvae/g) was insensitive to errors in estimating M and to the pattern of recruitment. Together, the two analyses indicated that a total biomass equal to 1366 metric tons (t)/d of age-1+ shortbelly rockfish (sexes combined) was needed to account for the observed level of spawning output during the cruise. Given the long-term seasonal distribution of spawning activity in the study area, as elucidated from a retrospective examination of California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigation (CalCOFI) ichthyoplankton samples from 1952 to 1984, the “daily” total biomass was expanded to an annual total of 67,392 t. An attempt to account for all sources of error in the derivation of this estimate was made by application of the delta-method, which yielded a coefficient of variation of 19%. The relatively high precision of this larval production method, and the rapidity with which an absolute biomass estimate can be obtained, establishes that, for some species of rockfish (Sebastes spp.), it is an attractive alternative to traditional age-structured stock assessments.

Quantifying annual variation in catchability for commercial and research fishing

Biomass indices, from commercial catch per unit of effort (CPUE) or random trawl surveys, are commonly used in fisheries stock assessments. Uncertainty in such indices, often ex-pressed as a coefficient of variation (CV), has two components: observation error, and annual variation in catchability. Only the former can be estimated directly. As a result, the CVs used for these indices either ignore the annual-variation component or assume a value for it (often implicitly). Two types of data for New Zealand stocks were examined: 48 sets of residuals and catchability estimates from stock assessments using either CPUE or trawl survey indices; and biomass estimates from 17 time series of trawl surveys with between 4 and 25 species per time series. These data show clear evidence of significant annual variation in catchability. With the trawl survey data, catchability was detectably extreme for many species in about one year in six. The assessment data suggest that this annual variability typically has a CV of about 0.2. For commercial CPUE the variability is slightly less, and a typical total CV (including both components) of 0.15 to 0.2. This is much less than the values of 0.3 to 0.35 that have commonly been assumed in New Zealand. Some estimates of catchability are shown to be implausible.

Demographic assessment of the blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) in Chesapeake Bay using extractable lipofuscins as age markers

The blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) plays an important economic and ecological role in estuaries and coastal habitats from the Gulf of Mexico to the east coast of North America, but demographic assessments are limited by length-based methods. We applied an alternative aging method using biochemical measures of metabolic byproducts (lipofuscins) sequestered in the neural tissue of eyestalks to examine population age structure. From Chesapeake Bay, subsamples of animals collected from the 1998–99 (n=769) and 1999–2000 (n=367) winter dredge surveys were collected and lipofuscin was measured. Modal analysis of the lipofuscin index provided separation into three modes, whereas carapace-width data collected among the same individuals showed two broad modes. Lipofuscin modal analysis indicated that most adults (carapace width >120 mm) were <2 years old. The results indicate that use of extractable lipofuscin can provide a more accurate and better resolved estimation of demographic structure of blue crab populations in the field than size alone.

The statistical properties of recreational catch rate data for some fish stocks off the northeast U.S. coast

Recreational fisheries in the waters off the northeast U.S. target a variety of pelagic and demersal fish species, and catch and effort data sampled from recreational fisheries are a critical component of the information used in resource evaluation and management. Standardized indices of stock abundance developed from recreational fishery catch rates are routinely used in stock assessments. The statistical properties of both simulated and empirical recreational fishery catch-rate data such as those collected by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Marine Recreational Fishery Statistics Survey (MRFSS) are examined, and the potential effects of different assumptions about the error structure of the catch-rate frequency distributions in computing indices of stock abundance are evaluated. Recreational fishery catch distributions sampled by the MRFSS are highly contagious and overdispersed in relation to the normal distribution and are generally best characterized by the Poisson or negative binomial distributions. The modeling of both the simulated and empirical MRFSS catch rates indicates that one may draw erroneous conclusions about stock trends by assuming the wrong error distribution in procedures used to developed standardized indices of stock abundance. The results demonstrate the importance of considering not only the overall model fit and significance of classification effects, but also the possible effects of model misspecification, when determining the most appropriate model construction.

Evaluating the efficacy of managing West Coast groundfish resources through simulations

Management of West Coast groundfish resources by the Pacific Fishery Management Council involves Federal government and academic scientists conducting stock assessments, generally using the stock synthesis framework, applying the 40-10 rule to determine harvest guidelines for resources that are not overfished and conducting rebuilding analyses to determine harvest guidelines for resources that have been designated as overfished. However, this management system has not been evaluated in terms of its ability to satisfy the National Standard 1 goals of the Sustainable Fisheries Act. A Monte Carlo simulation framework is therefore outlined that can be used to make such evaluations. Based on simulations tailored to a situation similar to that of managing the widow rockfish (Sebastes entomelas) resource, it is shown that catches during recovery and thereafter are likely to be highly variable (up to ±30% from one year to the next). Such variability is far greater than has been presented to the decision makers to date. Reductions in interannual variability in catches through additional data collection are, however, unlikely. Rather, improved performance will probably arise from better methods for predicting future recruitment. Rebuilding analyses include quantities such as the year to which the desired probability of recovery applies. The estimates of such quantities are, however, very poorly determined.

Quantitative determination of the timing of otolith ring formation from marginal increments in four marine teleost species from northwestern Australia

The sectioned otoliths of four fish species from a tropical demersal trawl fishery in Western Australia revealed a series of alternating trans-lucent and opaque zones in reflected light. The translucent zones, referred to as growth rings, were counted to determine fish ages. The width of the opaque zone on the periphery of the otolith section as a proportion of the width of the previous opaque zone (index of completion) was used to determine the periodicity of growth-ring formation. This article describes a method for modeling changes in the index of ring completion over time, from which a parameter for the most probable time of growth-ring formation (with confidence intervals) can be determined. The parameter estimate for the timing of new growth-ring formation for Lethrinus sp. 3 was from mid July to mid September, for Lutjanus vitta from early July to the end of August, for Nemipterus furcosus from mid July to late September, and for Lutjanus sebae from mid July to mid November. The confidence intervals for the timing of formation of growth rings was variable between species, being smallest for L. vitta, and variable between fish of the same species with different numbers of growth rings. The stock assessments of these commercially important species relies on aging information for all the age classes used in the assessment. This study demonstrated that growth rings on sectioned otoliths were laid down annually, irrespective of the number of growth rings, and also demonstrated that the timing of ring formation for these tropical species can be determined quantitatively (with confidence intervals.

Horizontal and vertical movements of juvenile bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) in relation to oceanographic conditions of the western North Atlantic, determined with ultrasonic telemetry

We employed ultrasonic transmitters to follow (for up to 48 h) the horizontal and vertical movements of five juvenile (6.8–18.7 kg estimated body mass) bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) in the western North Atlantic (off the eastern shore of Virginia). Our objective was to document the fishes’ behavior and distribution in relation to oceanographic conditions and thus begin to address issues that currently limit population assessments based on aerial surveys. Estimation of the trends in adult and juvenile Atlantic bluefin tuna abundance by aerial surveys, and other fishery-independent measures, is considered a priority. Juvenile bluefin tuna spent the majority of their time over the continental shelf in relatively shallow water (generally less then 40 m deep). Fish used the entire water column in spite of relatively steep vertical thermal gradients (≈24°C at the surface and ≈12°C at 40 m depth), but spent the majority of their time (≈90%) above 15 m and in water warmer then 20°C. Mean swimming speeds ranged from 2.8 to 3.3 knots, and total distance covered from 152 to 289 km (82–156 nmi). Because fish generally remained within relatively con-fined areas, net displacement was only 7.7–52.7 km (4.1–28.4 nmi). Horizontal movements were not correlated with sea surface temperature. We propose that it is unlikely that juvenile bluefin tuna in this area can detect minor horizontal temperature gradients (generally less then 0.5°C/km) because of the steep vertical temperature gradients (up to ≈0.6°C/m) they experience during their regular vertical movements. In contrast, water clarity did appear to influence behavior because the fish remained in the intermediate water mass between the turbid and phytoplankton-rich plume exiting Chesapeake Bay (and similar coastal waters) and the clear oligotrophic water east of the continental shelf.

Length and age at maturity of female petrale sole (Eopsetta jordani) determined from samples collected prior to spawning aggregation

The problem of bias in female petrale sole age and length-at-maturity relationships caused by sampling from spawning aggregations was investigated. Samples were collected prior to aggregation, and histological methods were used to determine maturity status. Mature and immature fish were classified by inspecting oocytes for the presence of yolk in September, when substantial divergence in yolked and unyolked oocyte diameters had been observed. Comparison of macroscopic and microscopic assessment of maturity showed that maturity status cannot be determined accurately by using macroscopic inspection during the summer. Female petrale sole from the central Oregon coast were 50% mature at 33 cm and 5 years of age. Comparison of data from our study with data used in recent petrale sole stock assessments showed that both sampling bias and the use of samples from sea-sons when status cannot be accurately determined have likely caused errors in fitted maturity relationships.

Assessment of agrobiodiversity resources in the Borotse flood plain, Zambia

Concerns about perceived loss of indigenous materials emerged from multiple stakeholders during consultations to plan and design the CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems for the Borotse hub in Zambia’s Western Province. To come to grips with and address the concerns, the AAS Borotse hub program of work included an assessment of agrobiodiversity to inform community-level and program initiatives and actions. The agrobiodiversity assessment comprised three components: key informant and expert surveys complemented by review of grey and published literature, focus group discussions in the communities, and individual household surveys. This working paper reports the findings from assessments of agrobiodiversity resources in the Borotse hub by key informants and local experts working in government ministries, departments and agencies, and non-governmental organizations operating in the communities. This working paper covers the following topics: agriculture in the Borotse flood plain; major agricultural land types in the Borotse flood plain; soils and their uses; production systems; crops, including the seed sector and ex-situ resources; indigenous materials collected from the wild, including non-perennial and perennial plants, aquatic plants, and forest biodiversity; fish resources, including both capture fisheries and aquaculture; livestock resources; dietary diversity; and indigenous and local knowledge on management systems.

Exploratory analysis of resource demand and the environmental footprint of future aquaculture development using Life Cycle Assessment

Increases in fish demand in the coming decades are projected to be largely met by growth of aquaculture. However, increased aquaculture production is linked to higher demand for natural resources and energy as well as emissions to the environment. This paper explores the use of Life Cycle Assessment to improve knowledge of potential environmental impacts of future aquaculture growth. Different scenarios of future aquaculture development are taken into account in calculating the life cycle environmental impacts. The environmental impact assessments were built on Food and Agriculture Organization statistics in terms of production volume of different species, whereas the inputs and outputs associated with aquaculture production systems were sourced from the literature. The matrix of input-output databases was established through the Blue Frontiers study.

Appraisal of PD6493:1991 fracture assessment procedures

PD6493:1991 fracture assessment have been performed for a range of large-scale fracture mechanics tests conducted at TWI in the past. These tests cover several material groups, including pressure vessel steels, pipeline steels, stainless steels and aluminium alloys, including parent material and weldments. Ninety-two wide plate and pressure vessel tests have been assessed, following Levels 1, 2 and 3 PD6493:1991 procedures. In total, over 400 assessments have been performed, examining many features of the fracture assessment procedure including toughness input, proof testing, residual stress assumptions and stress state (tension, bending and biaxial). In all cases the large scale tests have been assessed as one would actual structures: i.e., based on lower bound toughness values obtained from small scale fracture toughness specimens.