Policy evaluation and uncertainty about the effects of oil prices on economic activity

This paper addresses the issue of policy evaluation in a context in which policymakers are uncertain about the effects of oil prices on economic performance. I consider models of the economy inspired by Solow (1980), Blanchard and Gali (2007), Kim and Loungani (1992) and Hamilton (1983, 2005), which incorporate different assumptions on the channels through which oil prices have an impact on economic activity. I first study the characteristics of the model space and I analyze the likelihood of the different specifications. I show that the existence of plausible alternative representations of the economy forces the policymaker to face the problem of model uncertainty. Then, I use the Bayesian approach proposed by Brock, Durlauf and West (2003, 2007) and the minimax approach developed by Hansen and Sargent (2008) to integrate this form of uncertainty into policy evaluation. I find that, in the environment under analysis, the standard Taylor rule is outperformed under a number of criteria by alternative simple rules in which policymakers introduce persistence in the policy instrument and respond to changes in the real price of oil.

The complex history of the olive tree: from Late Quaternary diversification of Mediterranean lineages to primary domestication in the northern Levant.

The location and timing of domestication of the olive tree, a key crop in Early Mediterranean societies, remain hotly debated. Here, we unravel the history of wild olives (oleasters), and then infer the primary origins of the domesticated olive. Phylogeography and Bayesian molecular dating analyses based on plastid genome profiling of 1263 oleasters and 534 cultivated genotypes reveal three main lineages of pre-Quaternary origin. Regional hotspots of plastid diversity, species distribution modelling and macrofossils support the existence of three long-term refugia; namely the Near East (including Cyprus), the Aegean area and the Strait of Gibraltar. These ancestral wild gene pools have provided the essential foundations for cultivated olive breeding. Comparison of the geographical pattern of plastid diversity between wild and cultivated olives indicates the cradle of first domestication in the northern Levant followed by dispersals across the Mediterranean basin in parallel with the expansion of civilizations and human exchanges in this part of the world.

Explicit methods for Hilbert modular forms

We exhibit algorithms to compute systems of Hecke eigenvalues for spaces of Hilbert modular forms over a totally real field. We provide many explicit examples as well as applications to modularity and Galois representations.

La llengua de l'enemic com a llengua pròpia: cultures translatives del paisatge indígena nord-americà

This research paper seeks to bring into view the present-day situation of Native-American narrative in English. It is divided into four chapters. The first deals with the emergence of what we might call a Native-American narrative style and its evolution from 1900 up until its particularly forceful expression in 1968 with the appearance of N. Scott Momaday’s novel House Made of Dawn. To trace this evolution, we follow the chronology set forth by Paula Gunn Allen in her anthology Voice of the Turtle: American Indian Literature 1900-1970. In the second chapter we hear various voices from contemporary Native-American literary production as we follow Simon J. Ortiz’s anthology Speaking for the Generations: Native Writers on Writing. Noteworthy among these are Leslie Marmon Silko and Gloria Bird, alongside new voices such as those of Esther G. Belin and Daniel David Moses, and closing with Guatemalan-Mayan Victor D. Montejo, exiled in the United States. These writers’ contributions gravitate around two fundamental notions: the interdependence between human beings and the surrounding landscape, and the struggle for survival, which of necessity involves the deconstruction of the (post-)colonial subject. The third chapter deals with an anthology of short stories and poems by present-day Native-American women writers, edited by Joy Harjo and Gloria Bird and entitled Reinventing the Enemy’s Language: Contemporary Native Women’s Writings of North America. It too exemplifies personal and cultural reaffirmation on a landscape rich in ancestral elements, but also where one’s own voice takes shape in the language which, historically, is that of the enemy. In the final chapter we see how translation studies provide a critical perspective and fruitful reflection on the literary production of Native-American translative cultures, where a wide range of writers struggle to bring about the affirmative deconstruction of the colonialised subject. Thus there comes a turnaround in the function of the “enemy’s language,” giving rise also to the question of cultural incommensurability.

The Evolution of Trypanosomes Infecting Humans and Primates

Based on phylogenetic analysis of 18S rRNA sequences and clade taxon composition, this paper adopts a biogeographical approach to understanding the evolutionary relationships of the human and primate infective trypanosomes, Trypanosoma cruzi, T. brucei, T. rangeli and T. cyclops. Results indicate that these parasites have divergent origins and fundamentally different patterns of evolution. T. cruzi is placed in a clade with T. rangeli and trypanosomes specific to bats and a kangaroo. The predominantly South American and Australian origins of parasites within this clade suggest an ancient southern super-continent origin for ancestral T. cruzi, possibly in marsupials. T. brucei clusters exclusively with mammalian, salivarian trypanosomes of African origin, suggesting an evolutionary history confined to Africa, while T. cyclops, from an Asian primate appears to have evolved separately and is placed in a clade with T. (Megatrypanum) species. Relating clade taxon composition to palaeogeographic evidence, the divergence of T. brucei and T. cruzi can be dated to the mid-Cretaceous, around 100 million years before present, following the separation of Africa, South America and Euramerica. Such an estimate of divergence time is considerably more recent than those of most previous studies based on molecular clock methods. Perhaps significantly, Salivarian trypanosomes appear, from these data, to be evolving several times faster than Schizotrypanum species, a factor which may have contributed to previous anomalous estimates of divergence times.

Epidemiology and Anthropology: an integrated approach dealing with bio-socio-cultural aspects as strategy for the control of endemic diseases

The control of endemic diseases has not attained the desired level of effectiveness in spite of the use of modern efficient thecnologies. The classic interventionist approach for the control of schistosomiasis is centered on systemic control of the snail hosts combined to large scale medical treatment and is usually carried out without social preocupation due to the assisted communities. It is easy to understand the interest and the ethical compromise of public health research while producing studies in which the biological and social determinants as well as the cultural components should be considered and also encompass the historical dimensions and symbolic representations. In face of the recent political decision in favor of decentralizations of health administration to municipal level, we suggest, in the present paper, an integrated approach for the epidemiological diagnosis of an endemic situation at local level. Theoretical and methodological aspects from both, epidemiology and anthropology are discussed. Epidemiological methods can be used to detect the dependent variables (those related to the human infection) and the independent variables (demographic, economic, sanitary and social). Another methodological approach of anthropological /etnographic nature can be conducted in order to make an articulation of the knowledge on the various dimensions or determinant levels of the disease. Mutual comprehension, between researchers and the people under investigation, on the dynamic transmission process would be relevant for a joint construction, at local level, of programmed actions for the control of endemic diseases. This would extend reflections on the health/disease process as a whole.

Programmed Cell Death in Procyclic Form Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense - Identification of Differentially Expressed Genes during Con A Induced Death

Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense can be induced to undergo apoptosis after stimulation with Con A. As cell death in these parasites is associated with de novo gene expression we have applied a differential display technique, Randomly Amplified Differential Expressed Sequence-Polymerase Chain Reaction (RADES-PCR) to the study of gene expression during Con A induced cell death in these organisms. Twenty-two differentially displayed products have been cloned and sequenced. These represent the first endogenous genes to be identified as implicated in cellular death in trypanosomatids (the most primitive eukaryote in which apoptosis has been described). Evidence for an ancestral death machinery, `proto-apoptosis' in single celled organisms is discussed.

Novel H3K4me3 marks are enriched at human- and chimpanzee-specific cytogenetic structures.

Human and chimpanzee genomes are 98.8% identical within comparable sequences. However, they differ structurally in nine pericentric inversions, one fusion that originated human chromosome 2, and content and localization of heterochromatin and lineage-specific segmental duplications. The possible functional consequences of these cytogenetic and structural differences are not fully understood and their possible involvement in speciation remains unclear. We show that subtelomeric regions-regions that have a species-specific organization, are more divergent in sequence, and are enriched in genes and recombination hotspots-are significantly enriched for species-specific histone modifications that decorate transcription start sites in different tissues in both human and chimpanzee. The human lineage-specific chromosome 2 fusion point and ancestral centromere locus as well as chromosome 1 and 18 pericentric inversion breakpoints showed enrichment of human-specific H3K4me3 peaks in the prefrontal cortex. Our results reveal an association between plastic regions and potential novel regulatory elements.

Social Interaction Effects on Fertility: Intentions and Behaviors

The existing literature shows that social interactions in individuals' networks affect their reproductive attitudes and behaviors through three mechanisms: social influence, social learning, and social support. In this paper, we discuss to what extent the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), an individual based theorization of intentions and behavior used to model fertility, takes these social mechanisms into account. We argue that the TPB already integrates social influence and that it could easily accommodate the two other social network mechanisms. By doing so, the theory would be enriched in two respects. First, it will explain more completely how macro level changes eventually ends in micro level changes in behavioral intentions. Indeed, mechanisms of social influence may explain why changes in representations of parenthood and ideal family size can be slower than changes in socio-economic conditions and institutions. Social learning mechanisms should also be considered, since they are crucial to distinguish who adopts new behavioral beliefs and practices, when change at the macro level finally sinks in. Secondly, relationships are a capital of services that can complement institutional offering (informal child care) as well as a capital of knowledge which help individuals navigate in a complex institutional reality, providing a crucial element to explain heterogeneity in the successful realization of fertility intentions across individuals. We develop specific hypotheses concerning the effect of social interactions on fertility intentions and their realization to conclude with a critical review of the existing surveys suitable to test them and their limits.

Closeness in relationships as a mediator between sexual abuse in childhood or adolescence and psychopathological outcome in adulthood.

The risk of adverse psychological outcomes in adult victims of childhood and adolescent sexual abuse (CSA) has been documented; however, research on possible mediating variables is still required, namely with a clinical perspective. The attachment literature suggests that secure interpersonal relationships may represent such a variable. Twenty-eight women who had experienced episodes of CSA, and 16 control women, were interviewed using Bremner's Early Trauma Inventory and the DSM-IV Global Assessment of Functioning; they also responded to Collins' Relationship Scales Questionnaire, evaluating adult attachment representations in terms of Closeness, Dependence and Anxiety. Subjects with an experience of severe abuse reported significantly more interpersonal distance in relationships (low index of Closeness) than other subjects. The index of psychopathological functioning was correlated with both the severity of abuse and attachment (low index of Closeness). Regression analysis on the sample of abused women revealed that attachment predicted psychopathology when abuse was controlled for, whereas abuse did not predict psychopathology when attachment was controlled for. Therefore, preserving a capacity for closeness with attachment figures in adulthood appears to mediate the consequences of CSA on subsequent psychopathological outcome.

Analysis of genetic diversity of Trypanosoma cruzi: an application of riboprinting and gradient gel electrophoresis methods

Analysis of restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) profiles derived from digestion of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) products of the ribosomal 18S from Trypanosoma cruzi yields a typical `riboprint' profile that can vary intraspecifically. A selection of 21 stocks of T. cruzi and three outgroup taxa: T. rangeli, T. conorhini and Leishmania braziliensis were analysed by riboprinting to assess divergence within and between taxa. T. rangeli, T. conorhini and L. braziliensis could be easily differentiated from each other and from T. cruzi. Phenetic analysis of PCR-RFLP profiles indicated that, with one or two exceptions, stocks of T. cruzi could be broadly partitioned into two groups that formally corresponded to T. cruzi I and T. cruzi II respectively. To test if ribosomal 18S sequences were homogeneous within each taxon, gradient gel electrophoresis methods were employed utilising either chemical or temperature gradients. Upon interpretation of the melting profiles of riboprints and a section of the 18S independently amplified by PCR, there would appear to be at least two divergent 18S types present within T. cruzi. Heterogeneity within copies of the ribosomal 18S within a single genome has therefore been demonstrated and interestingly, this dimorphic arrangement was also present in the outgroup taxa. Presumably the ancestral duplicative event that led to the divergent 18S types preceded that of speciation within this group. These divergent 18S paralogues may have, or had, different functional pressures or rates of molecular evolution. Whether or not these divergent types are equally transcriptionally active throughout the life cycle, remain to be assessed.

The ecotopes and evolution of triatomine bugs (triatominae) and their associated trypanosomes

Triatomine bug species such as Microtriatoma trinidadensis, Eratyrus mucronatus, Belminus herreri, Panstrongylus lignarius, and Triatoma tibiamaculata are exquisitely adapted to specialist niches. This suggests a long evolutionary history, as well as the recent dramatic spread a few eclectic, domiciliated triatomine species. Virtually all species of the genus Rhodnius are primarily associated with palms. The genus Panstrongylus is predominantly associated with burrows and tree cavities and the genus Triatoma with terrestrial rocky habitats or rodent burrows. Two major sub-divisions have been defined within the species Trypanosoma cruzi, as T. cruzi 1 (Z1) and T. cruzi 2 (Z2). The affinities of a third group (Z3) are uncertain. Host and habitat associations lead us to propose that T. cruzi 1 (Z1) has evolved in an arboreal, palm tree habitat with the triatomine tribe Rhodniini, in association with the opossum Didelphis. Similarly we propose that T. cruzi (Z2) and Z3 evolved in a terrestrial habitat in burrows and in rocky locations with the triatomine tribe Triatomini, in association with edentates, and/or possibly ground dwelling marsupials. Both sub-divisions of T. cruzi may have been contemporary in South America up to 65 million years ago. Alternatively, T. cruzi 2 (Z2) may have evolved more recently from T. cruzi 1 (Z1) by host transfers into rodents, edentates, and primates. We have constructed a molecular phylogeny of haematophagous vectors, including triatomine bugs, which suggests that faecal transmission of trypanosomes may be the ancestral route. A molecular clock phylogeny suggests that Rhodnius and Triatoma diverged before the arrival, about 40 million years ago, of bats and rodents into South America.

The efficacy of single-trial multisensory memories.

This review article summarizes evidence that multisensory experiences at one point in time have long-lasting effects on subsequent unisensory visual and auditory object recognition. The efficacy of single-trial exposure to task-irrelevant multisensory events is its ability to modulate memory performance and brain activity to unisensory components of these events presented later in time. Object recognition (either visual or auditory) is enhanced if the initial multisensory experience had been semantically congruent and can be impaired if this multisensory pairing was either semantically incongruent or entailed meaningless information in the task-irrelevant modality, when compared to objects encountered exclusively in a unisensory context. Processes active during encoding cannot straightforwardly explain these effects; performance on all initial presentations was indistinguishable despite leading to opposing effects with stimulus repetitions. Brain responses to unisensory stimulus repetitions differ during early processing stages (-100 ms post-stimulus onset) according to whether or not they had been initially paired in a multisensory context. Plus, the network exhibiting differential responses varies according to whether or not memory performance is enhanced or impaired. The collective findings we review indicate that multisensory associations formed via single-trial learning exert influences on later unisensory processing to promote distinct object representations that manifest as differentiable brain networks whose activity is correlated with memory performance. These influences occur incidentally, despite many intervening stimuli, and are distinguishable from the encoding/learning processes during the formation of the multisensory associations. The consequences of multisensory interactions that persist over time to impact memory retrieval and object discrimination.

Dynamical systems of type (m,n) and their C*-algebras

Given positive integers n and m, we consider dynamical systems in which n copies of a topological space is homeomorphic to m copies of that same space. The universal such system is shown to arise naturally from the study of a C*-algebra we denote by Om;n, which in turn is obtained as a quotient of the well known Leavitt C*-algebra Lm;n, a process meant to transform the generating set of partial isometries of Lm;n into a tame set. Describing Om;n as the crossed-product of the universal (m; n) -dynamical system by a partial action of the free group Fm+n, we show that Om;n is not exact when n and m are both greater than or equal to 2, but the corresponding reduced crossed-product, denoted Or m;n, is shown to be exact and non-nuclear. Still under the assumption that m; n &= 2, we prove that the partial action of Fm+n is topologically free and that Or m;n satisfies property (SP) (small projections). We also show that Or m;n admits no finite dimensional representations. The techniques developed to treat this system include several new results pertaining to the theory of Fell bundles over discrete groups.

Acute and usual drinking among emergency trauma patients: a study on alcohol consumption and injury patterns.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship between usual and acute alcohol consumption among injured patients and, when combined, how they covary with other injury attributes. METHODS: Data from a randomised sample of 486 injured patients interviewed in an emergency department (Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland) were analysed using the chi(2) test for independence and cluster analysis. RESULTS: Acute alcohol consumption (24.7%) was associated with usual drinking and particularly with high volumes of consumption. Six injury clusters were identified. Over-representations of acute consumption were found in a cluster typical of injuries sustained through interpersonal violence and in another formed by miscellaneous circumstances. A third cluster, typical of sports injuries, was linked to a group of frequent heavy episodic drinkers (without acute consumption). CONCLUSIONS: Among injured patients, acute alcohol consumption is common and associated with usual drinking. Acute and/or usual consumption form part of some, but not all, injury clusters.