Competitividade brasileira nas exportações - Fase 1 metodologia para pesquisa e análise de dados

O Brasil vem aumentando anualmente a sua participação no comércio exterior mundial, mas apesar de seu significado na economia mundial, o seu volume negociado internacionalmente corresponde a somente 1,1% das exportações mundiais de mercadorias (23ª posição no ranking mundial), e 0,6% das exportações de serviços comerciais (35ª posição no ranking mundial), segundo a organização mundial do comércio (WTO, 2005). Na Fase 1 desta pesquisa, que se encerra com este Relatório, foi desenvolvida uma metodologia para a pesquisa e análise de dados relativos às dificuldades enfrentadas pelas empresas brasileiras no processo de exportação de mercadorias. Essa fase incluiu uma ampla revisão da literatura nacional e internacional sobre os fatores que têm impacto sobre o desempenho das exportações e a formulação e pré-teste de um questionário. Na Fase 2 será realizada a pesquisa propriamente dita através da aplicação do questionário a uma amostra de cerca de 1.000 empresas exportadoras, selecionadas no Catálogo de Exportadores Brasileiros da CNI – Confederação Nacional da Indústria. Os dados resultantes da pesquisa serão utilizados para avaliar o impacto dos gargalos no volume das exportações, no valor FOB das exportações e na variação anual do valor FOB, utilizando a técnica multivariada de regressão múltipla.

Análise de grandes eventos na cidade do Rio de Janeiro usando dados de telefonia celular

Os dados de telefonia celular são um instrumento valioso para analisar o comportamento da população urbana, uma vez que informação sobre a mobilidade das pessoas é difícil de obter. Estes podem oferecer estimativas em relação ao deslocamento e à ocupação da população nos espaços públicos, ajudando a elaborar medidas de planejamento urbano mais especificas e eficientes. A fim de examinar a movimentação ao redor da cidade do Rio de Janeiro em dias de grandes eventos, propomos uma metodologia com o objetivo de identificar aspectos desses eventos que permitem conhecer o público e oferecer soluções para os planejadores desenharem estratégias para a organização e segurança desses participantes. Palavras-chaves: mobilidade urbana. dados CDR. eventos públicos. Rio de Janeiro

Contribuição à análise de dados categorizados

Dinis Pestana

Análise de agrupamentos dos dados de DFA oriundos de perfis elétricos de indução de poços de petróleo

The main objective of this study is to apply recently developed methods of physical-statistic to time series analysis, particularly in electrical induction s profiles of oil wells data, to study the petrophysical similarity of those wells in a spatial distribution. For this, we used the DFA method in order to know if we can or not use this technique to characterize spatially the fields. After obtain the DFA values for all wells, we applied clustering analysis. To do these tests we used the non-hierarchical method called K-means. Usually based on the Euclidean distance, the K-means consists in dividing the elements of a data matrix N in k groups, so that the similarities among elements belonging to different groups are the smallest possible. In order to test if a dataset generated by the K-means method or randomly generated datasets form spatial patterns, we created the parameter Ω (index of neighborhood). High values of Ω reveals more aggregated data and low values of Ω show scattered data or data without spatial correlation. Thus we concluded that data from the DFA of 54 wells are grouped and can be used to characterize spatial fields. Applying contour level technique we confirm the results obtained by the K-means, confirming that DFA is effective to perform spatial analysis

Análise paramétrica da simulação composicional do processo de Drenagem Gravitacional Assistida por Gás (GAGD)

In Brazil and around the world, oil companies are looking for, and expected development of new technologies and processes that can increase the oil recovery factor in mature reservoirs, in a simple and inexpensive way. So, the latest research has developed a new process called Gas Assisted Gravity Drainage (GAGD) which was classified as a gas injection IOR. The process, which is undergoing pilot testing in the field, is being extensively studied through physical scale models and core-floods laboratory, due to high oil recoveries in relation to other gas injection IOR. This process consists of injecting gas at the top of a reservoir through horizontal or vertical injector wells and displacing the oil, taking advantage of natural gravity segregation of fluids, to a horizontal producer well placed at the bottom of the reservoir. To study this process it was modeled a homogeneous reservoir and a model of multi-component fluid with characteristics similar to light oil Brazilian fields through a compositional simulator, to optimize the operational parameters. The model of the process was simulated in GEM (CMG, 2009.10). The operational parameters studied were the gas injection rate, the type of gas injection, the location of the injector and production well. We also studied the presence of water drive in the process. The results showed that the maximum vertical spacing between the two wells, caused the maximum recovery of oil in GAGD. Also, it was found that the largest flow injection, it obtained the largest recovery factors. This parameter controls the speed of the front of the gas injected and determined if the gravitational force dominates or not the process in the recovery of oil. Natural gas had better performance than CO2 and that the presence of aquifer in the reservoir was less influential in the process. In economic analysis found that by injecting natural gas is obtained more economically beneficial than CO2

Análise de desempenho de vendas em telecomunicações utilizando técnicas de mineração de dados

Nowadays, telecommunications is one of the most dynamic and strategic areas in the world. Organizations are always seeking to find new management practices within an ever increasing competitive environment where resources are getting scarce. In this scenario, data obtained from business and corporate processes have even greater importance, although this data is not yet adequately explored. Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) appears then, as an option to allow the study of complex problems in different areas of management. This work proposes both a systematization of KDD activities using concepts from different methodologies, such as CRISP-DM, SEMMA and FAYYAD approaches and a study concerning the viability of multivariate regression analysis models to explain corporative telecommunications sales using performance indicators. Thus, statistical methods were outlined to analyze the effects of such indicators on the behavior of business productivity. According to business and standard statistical analysis, equations were defined and fit to their respective determination coefficients. Tests of hypotheses were also conducted on parameters with the purpose of validating the regression models. The results show that there is a relationship between these development indicators and the amount of sales

Avaliação de economias de escala e escopo no desempenho de equipes de serviços aplicando Análise de Envoltória de Dados DEA: um estudo em Empresa de Telecomunicações no Brasil

This Master s Thesis proposes the application of Data Envelopment Analysis DEA to evaluate economies of scale and economies of scope in the performance of service teams involved with installation of data communication circuits, based on the study of a major telecommunication company in Brazil. Data was collected from the company s Operational Performance Division. Initial analysis of a data set, including nineteen installation teams, was performed considering input oriented methods. Subsequently, the need for restrictions on weights is analyzed using the Assurance Region method, checking for the existence of zero-valued weights. The resulting returns to scale are then verified. Further analyses using the Assurance Region Constant (AR-I-C) and Variable (AR-I-V) models verify the existence of variable, rather than constant, returns to scale. Therefore, all of the final comparisons use scores obtained through the AR-I-V model. In sequence, we verify if the system has economies of scope by analyzing the behavior of the scores in terms of individual or multiple outputs. Finally, conventional results, used by the company in study to evaluate team performance, are compared to those generated using the DEA methodology. The results presented here show that DEA is a useful methodology for assessing team performance and that it may contribute to improvements on the quality of the goal setting procedure.

Análise de retorno de escala e tamanho do mercado no desempenho de equipes de vendas aplicando análise de envoltória de dados DEA: um estudo em empresa de Telecomunicações no Brasil

This Master s Thesis proposes the application of Data Envelopment Analysis DEA to evaluate the performance of sales teams, based on a study of their coverage areas. Data was collected from the company contracted to distribute the products in the state of Ceará. Analyses of thirteen sales coverage areas were performed considering first the output-oriented constant return to scale method (CCR-O), then this method with assurance region (AR-O-C) and finally the method of variable returns to scale with assurance region (AR-O-V). The method used in the first approach is shown to be inappropriate for this study, since it inconveniently generates zero-valued weights, allowing that an area under evaluation obtain the maximal score by not producing. Using weight restrictions, through the assurance region methods AR-O-C and AR-O-V, decreasing returns to scale are identified, meaning that the improvement in performance is not proportional to the size of the areas being analyzed. Observing data generated by the analysis, a study is carried out, aiming to design improvement goals for the inefficient areas. Complementing this study, GDP data for each area was compared with scores obtained using AR-O-V analysis. The results presented in this work show that DEA is a useful methodology for assessing sales team performance and that it may contribute to improvements on the quality of the management process.

Modelagem de equações estruturais na análise de dados de serviços em comunicações móveis

In recent decades, changes have been occurring in the telecommunications industry, allied to competition driven by the policies of privatization and concessions, have fomented the world market irrefutably causing the emergence of a new reality. The reflections in Brazil have become evident due to the appearance of significant growth rates, getting in 2012 to provide a net operating income of 128 billion dollars, placing the country among the five major powers in the world in mobile communications. In this context, an issue of increasing importance to the financial health of companies is their ability to retain their customers, as well as turn them into loyal customers. The appearance of infidelity from customer operators has been generating monthly rates shutdowns about two to four percent per month accounting for business management one of its biggest challenges, since capturing a new customer has meant an expenditure greater than five times to retention. For this purpose, models have been developed by means of structural equation modeling to identify the relationships between the various determinants of customer loyalty in the context of services. The original contribution of this thesis is to develop a model for loyalty from the identification of relationships between determinants of satisfaction (latent variables) and the inclusion of attributes that determine the perceptions of service quality for the mobile communications industry, such as quality, satisfaction, value, trust, expectation and loyalty. It is a qualitative research which will be conducted with customers of operators through simple random sampling technique, using structured questionnaires. As a result, the proposed model and statistical evaluations should enable operators to conclude that customer loyalty is directly influenced by technical and operational quality of the services offered, as well as provide a satisfaction index for the mobile communication segment

Análise textual dos discursos: responsabilidade enunciativa no texto jurídico

This investigation aims at describing, analyzing and interpreting the Commitment in Initial Petitions, which is a genre circumscribed in the judicial domain. For this purpose, we have chosen sections, facts as found and relevant law , sections of the petition, with the understanding that, in this way, respectively, the narration of events, which gives margin to the propositioning to the judicial action, and the exposition of the law that upholds the author s intention. We base our discussion on the field of Linguistics, more precisely, Textual Discourse Analysis (TDA), whose theoretical basis is derived from Textual Linguistics (TL) and Enunciative Linguistics. We foreground, particularly, the way in which the author of texts, objects of analysis, use discursive strategies that evidence ER. The relevance of this study, then, is in the formation of a critique of the judicial text, as it conceives of a dialogical approach to the point of view, raising not only questions about the way in which a linguistic instance conceives an object of discourse, but also considering questions of language inherent to technical writing and, in this aspect, contributing to the work of those operating in Law about the many ways ER is formed in the body of a petition. We selected two categories to analyze that, according to Adam (2011), characterize the degree of ER in the textual material of the propositional enunciations: the different types of representation of speech and the indications of profile of mediators. In this sense, with this task as an objective, we base our study regarding point of view on Rabatel (2003, 2009a, 2010) with relation to the enunciative approach, including the study of PDV in polyphonic and dialogical theoretical framework to study the ER from different types of speech representations that conceive forms of transmission of discourse and the role of the enunciating subject, mainly the responsibility and the prerogative by the propositional contents. In the same way, intending to study the indications of the mediator profiles, we observed the postulations of Guentchéva (1994, 1996), which develop the notion of mediative grammatical categories, of which permit the linguistic marking of distance and engagement of the enunciator with regard to the information expressed. The methodology we adopted was based on qualitative research, of an interpretive and introspective nature, in light of the fact that his study focuses on processes and strategies underlying language use. The corpus of the research is comprised of Initial Petitions, which gave rise to actions originating in the Civil Court of Currais Novos County RN. The data analysis shows that an object of discourse is always perspective oriented and presents the point of view of one or more enunciators. Consequently, the producer of a text, using the PDV of other enunciators, influences and establishes the argumentative orientation of the text. In the same way, it evidences the relevance of the use of mediated constructions in the judicial text, as they function as strategies attenuated to the responsibility of the producer of the text with what is said, and at the same time points to a discourse of authority through the entrance of the sources of law. Moreover, it reveals the documental and international importance of this practice, at the same time that it exposes the compositional and normative difficulties with regard to legal and linguistic aspects

Uma Análise Comparativa entre Sistemas de Combinação de Classificadores com Distribuição Vertical dos Dados

In systems that combine the outputs of classification methods (combination systems), such as ensembles and multi-agent systems, one of the main constraints is that the base components (classifiers or agents) should be diverse among themselves. In other words, there is clearly no accuracy gain in a system that is composed of a set of identical base components. One way of increasing diversity is through the use of feature selection or data distribution methods in combination systems. In this work, an investigation of the impact of using data distribution methods among the components of combination systems will be performed. In this investigation, different methods of data distribution will be used and an analysis of the combination systems, using several different configurations, will be performed. As a result of this analysis, it is aimed to detect which combination systems are more suitable to use feature distribution among the components

Aquisição, processamento e análise de dados de sísmica de alta resolução na plataforma continental norte do Rio Grande do Norte: Vale inciso do rio açu

On the modern Continental Shelf to the north of Rio Grande do Norte state (NE Brazil) is located a paleo-valley, submerged during the last glacial sea-level lowstand, that marks continuation of the most important river of this area (Açu River). Despite the high level of exploration activity of oil industry, there is few information about shallow stratigraphy. Aiming to fill this gap, situated on the Neogene, was worked a marine seismic investigation, the development of a processing flow for high resolution data seismic, and the recognition of the main feature morphology of the study area: the incised valley of the River Açu. The acquisition of shallow seismic data was undertaken in conjunction with the laboratory of Marine Geology/Geophysics and Environmental Monitoring - GGEMMA of Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte UFRN, in SISPLAT project, where the geomorphological structure of the Rio paleovale Açu was the target of the investigation survey. The acquisition of geophysical data has been over the longitudinal and transverse sections, which were subsequently submitted to the processing, hitherto little-used and / or few addressed in the literature, which provided a much higher quality result with the raw data. Once proposed for the flow data was developed and applied to the data of X-Star (acoustic sensor), using available resources of the program ReflexW 4.5 A surface fluvial architecture has been constructed from the bathymetric data and remote sensing image fused and draped over Digital Elevation Models to create three-dimensional (3D) perspective views that are used to analyze the 3D geometry geological features and provide the mapping morphologically defined. The results are expressed in the analysis of seismic sections that extend over the region of the continental shelf and upper slope from mouth of the Açu River to the shelf edge, providing the identification / quantification of geometrical features such as depth, thickness, horizons and units seismic stratigraphyc area, with emphasis has been placed on the palaeoenvironmental interpretation of discordance limit and fill sediment of the incised valley, control by structural elements, and marked by the influence of changes in the sea level. The interpretation of the evolution of this river is worth can bring information to enable more precise descriptions and interpretations, which describes the palaeoenvironmental controls influencing incised valley evolution and preservation to provide a better comprehensive understanding of this reservoir analog system