930 resultados para aggregate demand and supply


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Purpose: There is a need for theory development within the field of humanitarian logistics to understand logistics needs in different stages of a crisis and how to meet these. This paper aims to discuss three dimensions identified in logistics and organization theories and how they relate to three different cases of humanitarian logistics operations - the regional concept of the International Federation of Red Cross Red Crescent Societies, the development and working of the United Nations Joint Logistics Centre and coordination challenges of military logistics in UN mandated peacekeeping operations. The purpose is to build a framework to be used in further studies. Design/methodology/approach: A framework for the study of humanitarian logistics along three dimensions is developed, followed by a discussion of the chosen cases in relation to these dimensions. The framework will be used as basis for the case studies to be undertaken for the purpose of understanding and identification of new questions and needs for other or revised concepts from theory. Findings: The paper shows the relevance of a wide literature to the issues pertinent to humanitarian logistics. There is considerable promise in extant literature on logistics, SCM and coordination, but this needs to be confronted with the particular issues seen in the humanitarian logistics setting to achieve further theory development. Originality/value: The major contribution of the paper lies in its breadth of theoretical perspectives presented and combined in a preliminary theoretical framework. This is applied more specifically in the three case studies described in the paper.

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Soil is a complex heterogeneous system comprising of highly variable and dynamic micro-habitats that have significant impacts on the growth and activity of resident microbiota. A question addressed in this research is how soil structure affects the temporal dynamics and spatial distribution of bacteria. Using repacked microcosms, the effect of bulk-density, aggregate sizes and water content on growth and distribution of introduced Pseudomonas fluorescens and Bacillus subtilis bacteria was determined. Soil bulk-density and aggregate sizes were altered to manipulate the characteristics of the pore volume where bacteria reside and through which distribution of solutes and nutrients is controlled. X-ray CT was used to characterise the pore geometry of repacked soil microcosms. Soil porosity, connectivity and soil-pore interface area declined with increasing bulk-density. In samples that differ in pore geometry, its effect on growth and extent of spread of introduced bacteria was investigated. The growth rate of bacteria reduced with increasing bulk-density, consistent with a significant difference in pore geometry. To measure the ability of bacteria to spread thorough soil, placement experiments were developed. Bacteria were capable of spreading several cm’s through soil. The extent of spread of bacteria was faster and further in soil with larger and better connected pore volumes. To study the spatial distribution in detail, a methodology was developed where a combination of X-ray microtopography, to characterize the soil structure, and fluorescence microscopy, to visualize and quantify bacteria in soil sections was used. The influence of pore characteristics on distribution of bacteria was analysed at macro- and microscales. Soil porosity, connectivity and soil-pore interface influenced bacterial distribution only at the macroscale. The method developed was applied to investigate the effect of soil pore characteristics on the extent of spread of bacteria introduced locally towards a C source in soil. Soil-pore interface influenced spread of bacteria and colonization, therefore higher bacterial densities were found in soil with higher pore volumes. Therefore the results in this showed that pore geometry affects the growth and spread of bacteria in soil. The method developed showed showed how thin sectioning technique can be combined with 3D X-ray CT to visualize bacterial colonization of a 3D pore volume. This novel combination of methods is a significant step towards a full mechanistic understanding of microbial dynamics in structured soils.

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Purpose: as exposure to psychosocial hazard at work represents a substantial risk factor for employee health in many modern occupations, being able to accurately assess how employees cope with their working environment is crucial. As the workplace is generally accepted as being a dynamic environment consideration should be given to the interaction between employees and the acute environmental characteristics of their workplace. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of both acute demand and chronic work-related psychosocial hazard upon employees through ambulatory assessment of heart rate variability and blood pressure. Design: a within-subjects repeated measures design was used to investigate the relationship between exposure to work-related psychosocial hazard and ambulatory heart rate variability and blood pressure in a cohort of higher education employees. Additionally the effect of acute variation in perceived work-related demand was investigated. Results: two dimensions of the Management Standards were found to demonstrate an association with heart rate variability; more hazardous levels of “demandand “relationships” were associated with decreased SDNN. Significant changes in blood pressure and indices of heart rate variability were observed with increased acute demand.

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Within the last few decades of operations and supply chain management, the field has seen the rise of so called best practices, methods that will help supply chains obtain their business goals and gain a competitive edge. These methods were thought to be universal. This however is not always the case, as the surrounding business environment could have a significant impact on what will be effective in gaining competitive edge. Contingency theory states that the success of a supply chain is determined by both internal capabilities, as well as external context aligning. This creates a strategic fit, which is a major determinant of success. In order for supply chains to reach this strategic fit, they must adapt. As China has seen rapid growth and over the last few decades become one of the major economies of the world, Western companies have tried to establish themselves there, only to find that the Chinese market is extremely difficult to operate in. The aim of this thesis was to investigate from contingency theory perspective, what are the institutional factors that affect supply chain management of Finnish companies operating in China, and how do Finnish companies adapt their supply chains to better fit the Chinese institutional environment. A theoretical model was created for this thesis, in which supply chains possess resources, which can be combined in a meaningful manner to create capabilities. Both resources and capabilities are affected by the surrounding institutional environment, which forces supply chains to adapt in order to find a better strategic fit. A total of six Finnish managers from three large and three small companies operating in China were interviewed. The results indicated that the Chinese business environment is significantly different, than that of Finland or Western countries in general. Three institutional factors were identified: Confucian though, fast-paced business environment, and managing labor force. These three institutional factors made the relationship and delivery capabilities particularly important, as well as human resources, reputation, physical resources and technological resources. In conclusion, it was discovered that the Chinese institutional environment is heavily affected by Confucian thought, as well as the rapid market growth. These are the two most important institutional factors that shape the Chinese market. If supply chains wish to be successful in China, adaptation regarding these two institutional factors should yield good results.

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Understanding how imperfect information affects firms' investment decision helps answer important questions in economics, such as how we may better measure economic uncertainty; how firms' forecasts would affect their decision-making when their beliefs are not backed by economic fundamentals; and how important are the business cycle impacts of changes in firms' productivity uncertainty in an environment of incomplete information. This dissertation provides a synthetic answer to all these questions, both empirically and theoretically. The first chapter, provides empirical evidence to demonstrate that survey-based forecast dispersion identifies a distinctive type of second moment shocks different from the canonical volatility shocks to productivity, i.e. uncertainty shocks. Such forecast disagreement disturbances can affect the distribution of firm-level beliefs regardless of whether or not belief changes are backed by changes in economic fundamentals. At the aggregate level, innovations that increase the dispersion of firms' forecasts lead to persistent declines in aggregate investment and output, which are followed by a slow recovery. On the contrary, the larger dispersion of future firm-specific productivity innovations, the standard way to measure economic uncertainty, delivers the ``wait and see" effect, such that aggregate investment experiences a sharp decline, followed by a quick rebound, and then overshoots. At the firm level, data uncovers that more productive firms increase investments given rises in productivity dispersion for the future, whereas investments drop when firms disagree more about the well-being of their future business conditions. These findings challenge the view that the dispersion of the firms' heterogeneous beliefs captures the concept of economic uncertainty, defined by a model of uncertainty shocks. The second chapter presents a general equilibrium model of heterogeneous firms subject to the real productivity uncertainty shocks and informational disagreement shocks. As firms cannot perfectly disentangle aggregate from idiosyncratic productivity because of imperfect information, information quality thus drives the wedge of difference between the unobserved productivity fundamentals, and the firms' beliefs about how productive they are. Distribution of the firms' beliefs is no longer perfectly aligned with the distribution of firm-level productivity across firms. This model not only explains why, at the macro and micro level, disagreement shocks are different from uncertainty shocks, as documented in Chapter 1, but helps reconcile a key challenge faced by the standard framework to study economic uncertainty: a trade-off between sizable business cycle effects due to changes in uncertainty, and the right amount of pro-cyclicality of firm-level investment rate dispersion, as measured by its correlation with the output cycles.

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This dissertation describes two studies on macroeconomic trends and cycles. The first chapter studies the impact of Information Technology (IT) on the U.S. labor market. Over the past 30 years, employment and income shares of routine-intensive occupations have declined significantly relative to nonroutine occupations, and the overall U.S. labor income share has declined relative to capital. Furthermore, the decline of routine employment has been largely concentrated during recessions and ensuing recoveries. I build a model of unbalanced growth to assess the role of computerization and IT in driving these labor market trends and cycles. I augment a neoclassical growth model with exogenous IT progress as a form of Routine-Biased Technological Change (RBTC). I show analytically that RBTC causes the overall labor income share to follow a U-shaped time path, as the monotonic decline of routine labor share is increasingly offset by the monotonic rise of nonroutine labor share and the elasticity of substitution between the overall labor and capital declines under IT progress. Quantitatively, the model explains nearly all the divergence between routine and nonroutine labor in the period 1986-2014, as well as the mild decline of the overall labor share between 1986 and the early 2000s. However, the model with IT progress alone cannot explain the accelerated decline of labor income share after the early 2000s, suggesting that other factors, such as globalization, may have played a larger role in this period. Lastly, when nonconvex labor adjustment costs are present, the model generates a stepwise decline in routine labor hours, qualitatively consistent with the data. The timing of these trend adjustments can be significantly affected by aggregate productivity shocks and concentrated in recessions. The second chapter studies the implications of loss aversion on the business cycle dynamics of aggregate consumption and labor hours. Loss aversion refers to the fact that people are distinctively more sensitive to losses than to gains. Loss averse agents are very risk averse around the reference point and exhibit asymmetric responses to positive and negative income shocks. In an otherwise standard Real Business Cycle (RBC) model, I study loss aversion in both consumption alone and consumption-and-leisure together. My results indicate that how loss aversion affects business cycle dynamics depends critically on the nature of the reference point. If, for example, the reference point is status quo, loss aversion dramatically lowers the effective inter-temporal rate of substitution and induces excessive consumption smoothing. In contrast, if the reference point is fixed at a constant level, loss aversion generates a flat region in the decision rules and asymmetric impulse responses to technology shocks. Under a reasonable parametrization, loss aversion has the potential to generate asymmetric business cycles with deeper and more prolonged recessions.

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The Billings Complex and the Guarapiranga System are important strategic reservoirs for the city of São Paulo and surrounding areas because the water is used among other things, for the public water supply. They produce 19,000 liters of water per second and Supply water to 5.4 million people. Crude water is transferred from the Taquacetuba branch of the Billings Complex to the Guarapiranga Reservoir to regulate the water level of the reservoir. The objective of this study was to evaluate the water quality in the Taquacetuba branch, focusing on cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins. Surface water samples were collected in February (summer) and July (winter) of 2007. Analyses were conducted of physical, chemical, and biological variables of he water, cyanobacteria richness and density, and the presence of cyanotoxins. The water was classified as eutrophic-hypereutrophic. Cyanobacteria blooms were observed in both collection periods. The cyanobacteria bloom was most significant in July, reflecting lower water transparency and higher levels of total solids, suspended organic matter, chlorophyll-a, and cyanobacteria density in the surface water. Low richness and elevated dominance of the cyanobacteria were found in both periods. Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii was dominant in February, with 352 661.0 cel mL(-1), and Microcystis panniformis was dominant in July, with 1 866 725.0 cel mL(-1). Three variants of microcystin were found in February (MC-RR, MC-LR, MC-YR), as well as saxitoxin. The same variants of microcystin were found in July, but no saxitoxin was detected. Anatoxin-a and cylindropermopsin were not detected in either period. These findings are of great concern because the water in the Taquacetuba branch, which is transferred into the Guarapiranga Reservoir, is not treated nor managed. It is recommended that monitoring be intensified and more effective measures be taken by the responsible agencies to prevent the process of eutrophication and the consequent development of the cyanobacteria and their toxins.

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Resumen El artículo resume las principales discusiones que tuvieron lugar a inicios del siglo XIX en torno a la posibilidad de que en todos los mercados se diera simultáneamente un exceso de producción. Marx estudia este debate y hace una propuesta que recupera y al mismo tiempo supera las principales posiciones en disputa: la de Ricardo, Say y J. Mill, que descartan la posibilidad de una sobreproducción generalizada por cuanto “la oferta total de bienes y servicios iguala la demanda total”, y la de Lauderdale, Sismondi y Malthus, para quienes un exceso de acumulación de capital genera un agotamiento en las condiciones de la reproducción. Se esbozan los elementos del concepto de Marx sobre la crisis que permiten comprender mejor su posición frente a ese histórico debate. Abstract The article summarizes the main discussions - at the beginning of the 19th Century - about the possibility of a simultaneous overproduction in whole market. Marx studies this debate and makes a proposal that recovers and at the same time surpasses the main positions in dispute: that of Ricardo, Say and J. Mill, that rules out the possibility of a general glut inasmuch as “the total supply of goods and services will exactly equal the total demand”, and that of Lauderdale, Sismondi and Malthus, according to which the accumulation of capital generates an exhaustion in the conditions of the reproduction. The elements of Marx’s concept about the crisis are outlined and allow to better understand his position set against the historic debate.

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Being married may raise worker productivity and increase the probability of remaining in a job and, as consequence, obtaining a wage premium -- Yet, this effect may be different for males and females -- In developing countries, such as Colombia, the premium may be larger than in developed countries due to the differing social norms and labor market structures -- Using cross-sectional data from Colombian Household Surveys, this paper examines the marriage wage premium and its evolution in Colombia both at the aggregate level and by gender -- We find a marriage wage premium for both male and female populations; this wage premium is explained by the greater human capital endowment in married people and to employer favoritism due to the “social norms” which consider being married an appropriate behavior and reward it

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The first goal of this study is to analyse a real-world multiproduct onshore pipeline system in order to verify its hydraulic configuration and operational feasibility by constructing a simulation model step by step from its elementary building blocks that permits to copy the operation of the real system as precisely as possible. The second goal is to develop this simulation model into a user-friendly tool that one could use to find an “optimal” or “best” product batch schedule for a one year time period. Such a batch schedule could change dynamically as perturbations occur during operation that influence the behaviour of the entire system. The result of the simulation, the ‘best’ batch schedule is the one that minimizes the operational costs in the system. The costs involved in the simulation are inventory costs, interface costs, pumping costs, and penalty costs assigned to any unforeseen situations. The key factor to determine the performance of the simulation model is the way time is represented. In our model an event based discrete time representation is selected as most appropriate for our purposes. This means that the time horizon is divided into intervals of unequal lengths based on events that change the state of the system. These events are the arrival/departure of the tanker ships, the openings and closures of loading/unloading valves of storage tanks at both terminals, and the arrivals/departures of trains/trucks at the Delivery Terminal. In the feasibility study we analyse the system’s operational performance with different Head Terminal storage capacity configurations. For these alternative configurations we evaluated the effect of different tanker ship delay magnitudes on the number of critical events and product interfaces generated, on the duration of pipeline stoppages, the satisfaction of the product demand and on the operative costs. Based on the results and the bottlenecks identified, we propose modifications in the original setup.

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Despite the well-recognized benefits of exercise, Americans are gaining weight in astounding proportions and levels of physical activity are on the decline. The purpose of this study was to investigate a relationship between physical fitness, self-concept and sexual health. There is a dearth of knowledge on this relationship specifically in the context of sex-negative curricula, which is the dominate discourse in the United States. One hundred and thirty-three participants between the ages of 18 - 50 volunteered for fitness testing and data collection. Physical fitness was assessed through body fat, resting metabolic rate, cardiovascular endurance, muscular strength, muscular endurance and flexibility. Self-reported exercise was measured using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. Self-concept was measured by the Six Factor Self-Concept Scale, which presented a total self-concept score and as six individual concepts of self (likability, morality, task accomplishment, giftedness, power and vulnerability). Additionally, sexual function was measured by Derogatis Interview for Sexual Functioning and presented as both an aggregate score and five separate constructs of sexual functioning (fantasy/cognition, arousal, orgasm, behavior/experience, and drive/desire). Questions pertaining to sexual partners, sex education, and demographic information were also included. The results of the General Linear Model indicated significant relationships between physical fitness, self-concept and total sexual functioning. The sexual behavior/experience of men was predicted by body fat percentage and flexibility. In women, behavior/experience was predicted by body fat percentage and arousal was predicted by cardiovascular endurance. Total self-concept was related to muscular endurance. When men were isolated in the analysis, likability was positively related to sexual behavior/experience, and task accomplishment was inversely related to sexual behavior/experience. In women, giftedness was related to cognition/fantasy, arousal, orgasm and total sexual functioning. No relationships were found between physical fitness and the number of sexual partners in men; however, both muscular strength and the power self-concept were significantly related to number of sexual partners in women. As a result of these findings, women may be inclined to exercise to improve arousal and sexual functioning. Furthermore, educators should note the findings of a positive relationship between physical and psychological health and sexual well-being because they provide support for the development and adoption of sex-positive curricula that incorporate potential benefits of sexual activity.

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Many production systems have acquisition and merge operations to increase productivity. This paper proposes a novel method to anticipate whether a merger in a market is generating a major or a minor consolidation, using InvDEA model. A merger between two or more decision making units (DMUs) producing a single merged DMU that affects the efficiency frontier, defined by the pre-consolidation market conditions, is called a major consolidation. The corresponding alternative case is called a minor consolidation. A necessary and sufficient condition to distinguish the two types of consolidations is proven and two numerical illustrations in banking and supply chain management are discussed. The crucial importance of anticipating the magnitude of a consolidation in a market is outlined.

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The idea of spacecraft formations, flying in tight configurations with maximum baselines of a few hundred meters in low-Earth orbits, has generated widespread interest over the last several years. Nevertheless, controlling the movement of spacecraft in formation poses difficulties, such as in-orbit high-computing demand and collision avoidance capabilities, which escalate as the number of units in the formation is increased and complicated nonlinear effects are imposed to the dynamics, together with uncertainty which may arise from the lack of knowledge of system parameters. These requirements have led to the need of reliable linear and nonlinear controllers in terms of relative and absolute dynamics. The objective of this thesis is, therefore, to introduce new control methods to allow spacecraft in formation, with circular/elliptical reference orbits, to efficiently execute safe autonomous manoeuvres. These controllers distinguish from the bulk of literature in that they merge guidance laws never applied before to spacecraft formation flying and collision avoidance capacities into a single control strategy. For this purpose, three control schemes are presented: linear optimal regulation, linear optimal estimation and adaptive nonlinear control. In general terms, the proposed control approaches command the dynamical performance of one or several followers with respect to a leader to asymptotically track a time-varying nominal trajectory (TVNT), while the threat of collision between the followers is reduced by repelling accelerations obtained from the collision avoidance scheme during the periods of closest proximity. Linear optimal regulation is achieved through a Riccati-based tracking controller. Within this control strategy, the controller provides guidance and tracking toward a desired TVNT, optimizing fuel consumption by Riccati procedure using a non-infinite cost function defined in terms of the desired TVNT, while repelling accelerations generated from the CAS will ensure evasive actions between the elements of the formation. The relative dynamics model, suitable for circular and eccentric low-Earth reference orbits, is based on the Tschauner and Hempel equations, and includes a control input and a nonlinear term corresponding to the CAS repelling accelerations. Linear optimal estimation is built on the forward-in-time separation principle. This controller encompasses two stages: regulation and estimation. The first stage requires the design of a full state feedback controller using the state vector reconstructed by means of the estimator. The second stage requires the design of an additional dynamical system, the estimator, to obtain the states which cannot be measured in order to approximately reconstruct the full state vector. Then, the separation principle states that an observer built for a known input can also be used to estimate the state of the system and to generate the control input. This allows the design of the observer and the feedback independently, by exploiting the advantages of linear quadratic regulator theory, in order to estimate the states of a dynamical system with model and sensor uncertainty. The relative dynamics is described with the linear system used in the previous controller, with a control input and nonlinearities entering via the repelling accelerations from the CAS during collision avoidance events. Moreover, sensor uncertainty is added to the control process by considering carrier-phase differential GPS (CDGPS) velocity measurement error. An adaptive control law capable of delivering superior closed-loop performance when compared to the certainty-equivalence (CE) adaptive controllers is finally presented. A novel noncertainty-equivalence controller based on the Immersion and Invariance paradigm for close-manoeuvring spacecraft formation flying in both circular and elliptical low-Earth reference orbits is introduced. The proposed control scheme achieves stabilization by immersing the plant dynamics into a target dynamical system (or manifold) that captures the desired dynamical behaviour. They key feature of this methodology is the addition of a new term to the classical certainty-equivalence control approach that, in conjunction with the parameter update law, is designed to achieve adaptive stabilization. This parameter has the ultimate task of shaping the manifold into which the adaptive system is immersed. The performance of the controller is proven stable via a Lyapunov-based analysis and Barbalat’s lemma. In order to evaluate the design of the controllers, test cases based on the physical and orbital features of the Prototype Research Instruments and Space Mission Technology Advancement (PRISMA) are implemented, extending the number of elements in the formation into scenarios with reconfigurations and on-orbit position switching in elliptical low-Earth reference orbits. An extensive analysis and comparison of the performance of the controllers in terms of total Δv and fuel consumption, with and without the effects of the CAS, is presented. These results show that the three proposed controllers allow the followers to asymptotically track the desired nominal trajectory and, additionally, those simulations including CAS show an effective decrease of collision risk during the performance of the manoeuvre.

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El estudio del potencial exportador colombiano de carne bovina y porcina a la Federación Rusa en función de su oferta y demanda es un proyecto que pertenece a la línea de realidad dentro del área de investigación de la Universidad del Rosario. Es una investigación tipo exploratoria con un enfoque cualitativo que buscará dar respuesta a si Colombia cuenta con el potencial exportador de carne bovina y porcina al mercado de la Federación Rusa. El marco teórico que justifica el proyecto de investigación se compone de la investigación de mercados, el estudio del potencial de la demanda y las restricciones de acceso a otros mercados. A su vez los resultados esperados del proyecto de investigación serán diagnosticar el potencial exportador que tiene Colombia en relación a la carne bovina y porcina, así como examinar la oferta y demanda de estos productos en el mercado de la Federación Rusa y por último detallar las medidas sanitarias y zoosanitarias exigidas por el mercado de la Federación Rusa. Finalmente se utilizarán herramientas de tipo cualitativo que soportarán el desarrollo del proyecto de investigación, para conseguir alinear el objetivo del proyecto con el de la línea de realidad de la universidad y al objetivo del profesor, que buscan la producción de materiales académicos de uso permanente en la Universidad.

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El proyecto “Diseño de productos y rutas turísticas alternativas para el mejoramiento del nivel de vida de las comunidades locales: el caso del Golfo de Nicoya” tiene como propósitos: la elaboración de un diagnóstico del sistema turístico de las comunidades involucradas, la evaluación del potencial turístico de los recursos y atractivos identificados en las comunidades, el diseño de productos y rutas turísticas, y la realización de una zonificación turística en las áreas de estudio. El presente artículo se centra en la zonificación turística de las comunidades metas, debido a que las variables anteriormente mencionadas son la base para su elaboración. La zonificación toma en cuenta los aspectos que condicionan los procesos de transformación y articulación del turismo en el territorio, desde el papel de los recursos naturales para la implantación turística y la influencia de la estructura territorial y socioeconómica sobre la que se organiza el turismo. Esta permite un mejor análisis del espacio geográfico y diseño de propuestas de desarrollo. En este caso, se identifican elementos homogeneizadores del espacio turístico a partir del diagnóstico de las comunidades, entre ellos se encuentran: la geomorfología, uso del suelo, tipología de recurso y atractivo turístico, la oferta y la demanda turística, entre otros. ABSTRACT The purpose of the project, “Design of Products and Tourist Route Alternatives for Improving the Standard of Living of Local Communities: The Case of the Gulf of Nicoya”, is to diagnose the system of tourism in the communities involved, evaluate the tourist potential of the resources and attractions of the communities, design products and tour routes, and establish tourist zones in the areas of study. This article focuses on the community goals of the tourist zones since the above-mentioned variables are the basis for their development. The zoning takes into account the aspects that condition the process of transforming an area into a tourist zone, from the role natural resources play in establishing tourism to the influence of socioeconomic and territorial structures. This allows a better analysis of the geographic space and design of development proposals. In this case, homogenous elements of the tourist space are identified from diagnosis of the communities, including the geomorphology, land use, typology of resource and tourist attractions, tourist supply and demand and other factors.